Some selling to close out 2023 as the Dow fell 20 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. The major stock indices remain short term overbought with potential negative RSI divergences on the daily charts. I think that most expect the rally to continue to new all time highs for the S&P in the beginning of 2024. I am in that camp for now. But we must respect the fact that markets go where they want and perhaps the indexes will take a rest here. Some type of pullback is certainly overdue. But we will probably watch and wait for now with regards to the SPY until we see what we think is a solid signal. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates held steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on about average volume. GDX remains in the short term overbought range. 32 is the level that we need to get through on good volume to continue the move higher here. I would still like to try the GDX January calls at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat after being higher during the session. Not sure where it is headed in the near term. My trading for 2023 finished slightly in the black. There were some big gains and some big losses. I will need to work on the management of the trades in order to produce better results. We'll try and focus on taking profits earlier in 2024. I also need to cut down on the huge losses but that is a goal every year. I'll try to have more success with that as well. There will certainly be plenty of trading opportunities as the year goes on. It's another long holiday weekend and all the players will return next week. I'll be checking the charts as usual to try and get ready for the 1st week of the new year. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. Happy New Year everyone.

Another day of hanging around waiting for the year to end as the Dow gained 53 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index rolls on higher. The Dow was once again the leader, while the NASDAQ posted a nominal loss. Technical conditions for the S&P 500 remain overbought and staying that way. We are simply waiting for 2023 to finish and then we'll see how it goes to start the new year. Gold fell around $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped three points and GDX lost over 3/4. Volume was good to the downside despite it being a holiday week. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to roll over. The longer term down trend line remains in place. GDX has areas of support at both 30 and 29.5. One down day doesn't make a trend and we still like the GDX calls at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished pretty much flat today. Not sure where it is headed from here. I'd like to simply get through tomorrows market action and move on to 2024. Still plenty of time left in the January option cycle to trade. Asia was up with the exception of Japan and Europe closed lower. We'll finish out the week, month and year tomorrow.

Just hanging around today as the Dow gained 111 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The Dow was the leader today. The technical conditons haven't changed for the major indices. Waiting on new all time highs for the S&P 500. It is a holiday mode market and we are simply waiting for the new year to begin at this point. Trying to stay patient for now. Gold jumped almost twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX added 1/3. Volume was light. We still want to try the GDX January calls at some point. GDX is now right at the down trend line that began in early 2022. We want to be on board with the calls when that line is broken to the upside with volume. However GDX is both short and medium term overbought at the moment. That doesn't mean that it can't stay that way but it does mean that the risk is elevated to attempt the trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with a positive market. The short term indicators have now turned down with room to go lower. This implys more near term gains for the stock market and the Santa Claus rally continues. Europe and Asia finished higher as the overseas markets get into the holiday spirit. A new all time high for the Dow today as we wait for the other indexes to follow suit. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Santa Claus rally is in full swing as the Dow gained 159 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ continues to lead but we must be reminded that the market is in holiday mode. You cannot argue with price though. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought with potential negative divergences looming. But for now it is all systems on go with the chance to break out to new all time highs in the coming sessions. We will remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options until the new year. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume. GDX is short term overbought but not at extremes. We will try and wait for a pullback here before attempting the January calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today. The short term technical indicators here are mid-range. Not sure where the VIX heads next but with the market moving higher I'd guess that the VIX will trend lower. However it is hard to put much stock into this week as many of the players are off and will not return to their desks until the new year. Markets that were open overseas were muted and mixed. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Inflation data came in where expected and it was pretty much a lackluster holiday trading session. The Dow lost 18 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posting gains. The S&P remains short term overbought. We are entering a long holiday weekend followed by the last week of the year. I would expect light trading next week and no major surprises. On the sidelines still with regards to teh SPY. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The dollar was a bit lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU was up a point and GDX rose almost 1/4. Volume was average. The gold shares did drop from their best levels on the day. We will try and wait for some pullback here before attempting the GDX January calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and some of the short term indicators have rolled over. Not sure where it goes from here but the daily candlestick chart looks constructive for lower readings going forward. That would be a plus for stocks. We are also in the Santa Claus rally time period so higher stock prices from here would not be a surprise. We'll check the charts over the break and try and come up with a game plan for the new year. Europe and Asia were mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. Merry Christmas everyone.

Buyers were back in charge today as the Dow climbed 322 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. Yesterdays huge decline looks like a one day wonder but we'll have to see tomorrows reaction to the inflation data to be sure. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a plus. The S&P 500 does remain short term overbought though. I'd expect most of the activity to take place early tomorrow as traders head home early for the holiday and the bond market closes early. The stock market remains in rally mode although we could head sideways here to relieve some of the overbought condition. We'll remain on the sidelines for now. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remain steady. The XAU was up a couple points and GDX rose over 1/2. Volume was light. I'm still considering the GDX January calls but will remain patient for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today. The short term indicators here are starting to roll back over. This would be a positive for stocks if it continues. We'll know more after the reaction to the inflation data out tomorrow. The VIX does remain at low levels and as long as that continues the trend will be higher for the market. We are entering holiday mode for the markets so the volume will be light and the conviction of the moves in question. The Santa Claus rally is due to begin tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower in last nights trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Finally we saw some selling today that was long overdue as the Dow fell 475 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. Things were moving along to the upside as usual until there were only a couple of hours left in the session. Then the selling started and just fed on itself as it was practically a straight line down closing on the lows of the day. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned down but they are still overbought. I don't think that this is the beginning of some kind of huge decline but rather a well needed rest before the S&P goes on to a new all time high. We'll see. Perhaps we'll get a set up for the SPY January calls. Waiting for the end of the week and Fridays inflation numbers before commiting to any type of trade. Gold dropped $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates lower on the day. The XAU fell 2 7/8, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was on the light side. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to roll over. The daily candlestick chart here now has a bearish engulfing pattern on it. There is also a potential negative divergence on the RSI daily indicator. So while we are inclined to try the GDX January calls, we will wait and see where things go from here with regards to the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX took off to the upside and closed above the upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators are moving up with room to go. I'm not sure what's next for the VIX as we got the volatility implied by the tight Bollinger bands today. Perhaps we'll travel up to the 50 day moving average at 15 but that's just a guess. We'll keep an eye on it. The extreme overbought market conditons are finally getting some relief. How long the relief lasts is the next question. The Santa Claus rally is supposed to start on Friday and last seven trading days. Perhaps todays decline will allow that to take place. We'll know as time moves on. Asia And Europe were mixed in yesterdays trading overseas. We'll see if there is any follow through selling in stocks tomorrow.

Hihger and higher we climb as the Dow gained 251 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Sellers are nowhere to be found. At this point we are just repeating the same thing day after day. Extremely short term overbought and staying that way. But it is in fact what's happening. There is no telling how long this will go on and we are not about to guess when it ends. We are content to watch from the sidelines for now as there is plenty of time in the January option cycle to trade. The S&P 500 is pretty far from its 50 day moving average and that won't last forever. We'll remain patient adn perhaps will not put on a new trade until the new year. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remain steady. The XAU rose 3 1/2, while GDX added over 3/4. Volume was good to the upside and money continues to find a home in this space. GDX is short term overbought but not extremely so. There is a longer term down trend line at 32.5 to get through and that is a point away. I'm still looking at the GDX January calls despite the recent advance. Getting through 32.5 would point to 35 as the next target. What are we waiting for? Some type of decline or consolidation as there is so much time left for the January options that the premiums are pretty pricey. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX pretty much finished flat today. The tight Bollinger bands stand out on the daily chart. The VIX is so low already that I can't think that the next move there will be even lower but anything is possible I guess. I'm still voting for an increase in volatility and some kind of market drop in the near term. Long overdue in fact but again, we won't stand in the way of this rally. Europe and Asia finised higher with the exception of Hong Kong. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The buying spree continues for the overall market but the Dow finished flat on average volume. The advance/declines were around even. The summation index is still moving up. It feels like holiday mode already as we opened higher and trended that way for much of the session. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 led the way. The S&P remains extremely short term overbought and has been overbought for a month and a half. Sellers have vanished. This cannot go on indefinately. However trying to step in front of this freight train is not advised. Plenty of time in the January option cycle and the sidelines makes sense for now with regards to the SPY. Gold was up five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was flat along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on light volume. You can see that the theme today was lackluster trading all around. Do not be surpirsed if that continues. I like the GDX January calls still if we get some pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit todays price action. The short term indicators here have finally turned up. Combine that with the very tight Bollinger bands on the daily chart and you have a recipe for more volatility in the near term. That would not fit with our holiday mode thesis so we'll have to see how the rest of this week plays out. Asia and Europe were lower with the exception of the FTSE. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We finished the week on a mixed note as the Dow gained 56 points on very heavy expiration related volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher. The S&P 500 closed with a fractional loss and remains short term overbought to the extreme. I would expect to see some selling or at least sideways movement next week but you never know. Perhaps we'll just plow on to new all time highs. But my guess is some kind of pause to set up the Santa Claus rally which takes place the last five trading days of the year followed by the first two days of the new year. Whatever squaring of the books for 2023 will take place next week as many players will be off between Christmas and New Years. We will wait for some kind of trading signal in the SPY before attempting anything there. Ideally something that sets us up for the calls because the market is in a bullish mode. Gold was off $11 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates remained steady. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume. I still favor the January calls for GDX and a few of the short term indicators are trying to turn lower here. I'll consider placing an order for some next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is still short term oversold as it moved lower today. The daily Bollinger bands are getting closer together suggesting that we'll see some kind of outsized move in this indicator soon. We'll see. What we do know is that as long as the VIX stays low the rally has room to go. An extra week in the January option cycle so premiums will be high but there is more time for ideas to work. We'll go over the charts this weekend as usual. Asia was higher and Europe generally lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Some follow through to yesterdays huge gains as the Dow added 158 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The Dow is leading here and set a new all time high yesterday. That isn't the most bullish scenario but we expect the other major averages to set new all time highs in the coming weeks. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought to an extreme at this point. Pretty far removed from its 50 day moving average. Moving back up in a straight line again as well. Overdue for some type of decline but so far in this rally all we get is sideways consolidation. You cannot argue with price though so we'll just have to see how far it goes. The heavy volume in the past two sessions is another plus. Gold was up $54 on the futures. The US dollar continues to drop along with interest rates. The XAU was up 3 1/4, while GDX gained 5/8. Volume was heavy again to the upside for the gold shares although they did finish off of the best levels on the session. We still like the GDX January call idea and will look to purchase some on weakness. Obviously we've missed the ideal time to try this idea but I still believe that there is money to be made. I could be wrong. 5 weeks in the January option cycle so there will be plenty of time for this trade idea to work. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today and continues to be short term oversold. It also touched its lower Bollinger band for the third day in a row. The low level here continues to support gains in the stock market for now. It's a bull market and we're on a bull run. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see how the week finishes with expiration Friday tomorrow.

The Fed spoke and the market loved what it heard as the Dow climbed 512 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. It was a huge rally as all the stock indices celebrated Christmas a little early. The S&P 500 is short term overbought, staying that way and getting to extremes. New all time highs for the S&P will be coming in the following weeks. The Fed is done raising rates and will be looking to cut according to todays monologue. In retrospect the December SPY calls were not a bad idea but we were not willing to take the risk. Obviously did not anticipate a dovish Fed. The S&P is now pretty far from its 50 day moving average and that cannot last forever. But we will not stand in the way of this freight train as the bulls are clearly in charge. Gold took off with stocks as the futures rose $46. The US dollar got clobbered and interest rates sank. The gold shares rallied with the XAU gaining 7 1/8 and GDX jumping over 1 3/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. My order for the GDX January calls never got filled. I still like this idea but after missing todays move we'll have to wait and see if we get any pullback in order to give it a try. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned back up however there is still plenty of room for them to go higher. I don't think that today is just a one day wonder for gold but we'll see. It was an incredible move in the gold shares that the likes we haven't seen in quite a while. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as we were looking in the right direction but not able to take advantage of the situation. But you've got to keep moving forward in the game. The VIX was up a touch as it bounced off of the lower Bollinger band again. This indicator has been short term oversold for so long it is beginning to lose any kind of useful reference for us. What it does point out is that with such low readings the bulls are in charge. Two days left in the December option cycle as the bullish expiration week bias has been in full force. I guess we'll see how far the market can go. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what kind of follow through we get tomorrow.

Continuing to move higher as the Dow gained 173 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving higher. The signal for a big move in stocks from the McClellan oscillator on Friday did not pan out. The inflation data came in where expected. After initially moving lower the market recovered and trended higher for the rest of the session. It was another one day reversal to the upside. The potential negative RSI divergence on the daily chart for the S&P 500 is gone. The short term indicators for the S&P are now extremely overbought. I suspect that we'll have to see some kind of selling very soon. However we have clearly gotten through the resistance at 4600 and the trend is up. We'll see what happens with the inflation data and the Fed tomorrow. Gold finished practically flat on the futures today. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were slightly down. The XAU lost 3 1/8, while GDX dropped 2/3. Volume was above average. GDX is almost short term oversold. I adjusted my open order for the GDX January calls to a closer to the money strike price. Another day like today would most likely get it filled. The gold shares dropping with gold going nowhere is bearish. GDX has made it all the way back to its 50 day moving average. Perhaps the idea of the January calls here is the wrong one. I will reconsider this overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues to head south for the lowest close of the year. Still short term oversold as it has been for almost a month and a half. This too cannot go on forever. The VIX did touch its lower Bollinger band and bounce off of it today so perhaps it will move higher tomorrow. We'll see. Asia was higher with the exception of India while Europe was marginally lower. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

Another one day reversal to the upside as stock markets opened lower and closed higher. The Dow gained 157 points on light volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index continues higher. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator on Friday for a big move within the next two trading days. Today really doesn't qualify, for we had muted gains besides the Dow. So we'll see how it goes tomorrow. We still have the potential negative RSI divergence on the S&P 500 daily chart. However the S&P is now comfortably above the resistance at 4600. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Inflation data out tomorrow will most likely be the market mover. Gold lost $18 on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates finished little changed ahead of the inflation report. The XAU lost a point and GDX shed 1/8. Volume was light. The gold shares held up much better than gold and also finished up from the worst levels of the day. Not yet short term oversold for GDX on the daily chart. I did place an open order out there for the GDX January calls but it will take some more decline for it to be filled. If GDX makes it back to the 50 day moving average the order should be filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished higher today which doesn't fit with an up market. Still short term oversold here. Inflation data to be reported for the next two days in a row followed by the Fed later on Wednesday. So we should be ready for some kind of volatility either up or down. Not exactly sure what to expect so we'll be on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Asia and Europe were generally higher. WE'll see how the market reacts to the inflation numbers tomorrow.

Mild gains today as the Dow rose 130 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The employment data came in about where expected. We had a rally, then a sell off and another rally into the close. The NASDAQ barely led the way higher. The S&P 500 did close above the resistance at 4600. It still remains short term overbought with a possible negative divergence on the daily RSI. We are not looking at the SPY December calls anymore with a week to go in the December option cycle. Gold dropped $25 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 1 3/8, while GDX shed almost 2/3. Volume was good to the downside. The gold shares had a bearish week led by the one day downside reversal on Monday. That should have been our cue to exit the GDX December call trade. But it was poorly managed by me once again. I dumped the calls today for a 55% loss. We have now seen GDX close below the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern that had a valid breakout last week. So there is the likelyhood that the pattern will be negated and the breakout was false. It happens. The short term indicators for GDX are now mid-range. If they do make it down to oversold we'll probably try the GDX January calls as the January option cycle has an extra week in it. But that doesn't cancel the fact that the recent GDX trade had a nice profit that I failed to capture. We were looking for the 34 level for GDX and it did not even make it to 32. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as we chalk up another losing trade. I suppose the short term goal now is to try and not do anything stupid next week. But win or lose moving on is next thing to do. The VIX was down to close at the lowest level on the year. Still short term oversold but not at extremes. The VIX is still implying higher stock prices to come. We've got inflation data and the Fed next week so there will be plenty of excuses for the markets to move. I would expect things to quiet down after that with the holidays coming up towards the end of the month. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Buyers showed up ahead of tomorrows employment report as the Dow rose 63 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. The S&P 500 is still in a sideways pattern but the short term indicators are turning back up. Still short term overbought though and below the resistance of 4600. Not sure what will happen tomorrow but todays price action was encouraging for the bulls. Or SPY Decmber call idea is back on the shelf after the S&P already moving higher today. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were flat. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses again on light volume. My GDX December calls are barely in the black. We had GDX make it back to the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern today at the 30 level. The next technical expectation is to move higher from here. I did place an order for the GDX January calls but it wasn't filled. The price action for gold and the gold shares hasn't been bullish lately. Todays drop in the dollar should have resulted in a rally for the precious metal but none occured. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished barely higher today which doesn't fit with an up market. The short term indicators here remain oversold but not as much as they were. The low readings on the VIX imply higher prices for stocks as we move forward. We'll have to see how the markets react to the jobs report and go from there. Europe and Asia finished lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 70 points on average volume. The advance/declines were barely negative. The summation index is still moving up. Most of the major stock indices had a gap up at the open but then sold off for the rest of the day. That's negative price action to be sure. The NASDAQ led the way lower as well which isn't a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving lower with room to go. It has still basically moved sideways for the past couple of weeks but another down day will change things. Not sure why we are seeing the selling but we still like the idea of the SPY December calls if and when we reach short term oversold. Perhaps by the end of this week or the beginning of the next. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on light volume. The fact that they could not show a gain when gold itself was up is negative. The short term indicators for GDX are still heading down. My GDX December calls are still at a small profit. Looks like we'll wait and see the reaction to Fridays jobs report before deciding on whether to continue to hold on to this trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up just a bit today. The short term indicators here are trying to move up. Still oversold on the VIX but not at extremes. Not sure what to expect next here for stocks but Friday should provide the near term answers. We'll be patient and wait for now unless something dramatic occurs tomorrow. My guess is that it will be a waiting game. Europe and Asia finished up on the session. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The mixed market theme continues as the Dow fell 79 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ posted a small gain while the S&P 500 was barely lower. The short term indicators for the S&P have now rolled over with plenty of room to go lower. Still short term overbought there but not as much as lately. Not sure what the next move for the S&P is and we may have to wait until Fridays jobs report to find out. Markets have stopped moving straight up though as the easy money has already been made. If we continue to see a dip we might try the SPY December calls. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX lost over 1/2. Volume was good to the downside as traders are getting out of their gold positions. The short term technical indicators for GDX are moving lower from overbought readings. I'm still holding on to the GDX December calls and they still have a small gain. It appears that the best time to exit this trade has passed. The price action now is heading back to the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart which lies at the 30 level. 30 should contain the recent decline and price should move back up from there. That is a reasonable conclusion of the price action for GDX but markets go where they want. We are counting on the technical analysis to work but it never has been 100%. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains oversold but not at an extreme level. Don't know what to expect next here. Still plenty of time left in the December option cycle. We'll have the Fed to deal with next week as well. Asia was lower with the exception of India and Europe higher except for the FTSE. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Sellers took over in the overall market to begin the week but the Dow only fell 41 points on good volume. The advance/declines were barely negative. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. We had a gap down at the open on the S&P 500. It did manage to finish off of the worst levels on the session. The short term indicators still remain overbought though and we'll need more than what we saw today to relieve that condition. Still pretty far removed from the 50 day moving average for most of the major stock averages.. We do have economic data out this week with the jobs report on Friday as the main event. Gold was highly volatile on the futures as the daily range was over $100. Overnight there was jump to the $2150 level only to see sellers take over and drive the price back back to below $2050. It finished off over forty bucks. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The gold shares sank with the XAU dropping 3 1/3 and GDX losing over 3/4. Volume was heavy to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled over but are still overbought. My GDX December calls are still in the black but were cut in half today. Managing things from here won't be easy after todays price action. I'm still a believer in the gold shares but they are due for a rest just like the overall market. I'll consider where we go from here overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today but is still short term oversold. If it continues higher perhaps we'll see the pause in the market uptrend that is overdue. Or maybe the market just goes sideways from here. When in doubt, stay out is how the saying goes. Perhaps trying the SPY December calls before expiration isn't a good idea but we are still considering it. Asia was lower with the exception of India and Europe finished little changed one way or the other. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Still powering higher as the Dow gained 294 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. It was a one day reversal to the upside for the S&P 500 as it opened lower and closed higher. Still short term overbought here as we've reached the next level of resistance at 4600. Will we see a pause? We should, as the stock market is long overdue for some kind of decline. The angle of ascent that we've seen simply cannot be sustained forever. The short term indicators for the S&P are beginning to reach extremes. However we'd only be guessing if we think now is the time for some selling because the market is on a roll. We certainly would not recommend trying the SPY puts anytime soon because the trend is steeply up. Gold jumped almost $35 on the futures and closed at a new all time high. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was good to the upside. The gold shares did not rise as much as expected with gold itself having such a good day. However GDX is very short term overbought and some kind of sideways price action or decline is likely at this point. I would still like to wait until it gets to at least the 33 level before selling the GDX December calls that I own but we'll have to wait and see. Two weeks left in the December option cycle so managing the trade from here is the key. The gold shares are starting to act like the overall market itself, up with no downside. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains oversold to the extreme. There seems to be nothing but buyers out there now but that will chenge eventually and probably sooner rather than later. We'll have to be on our toes to figure out the remaining two weeks in the December option cycle. I'll check all the charts as usual this weekend. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A mixed market to be sure to finish the month. The Dow roared ahead by 520 points on end of the month heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues to climb. The S&P 500 posted a modest gain while the NASDAQ had a small loss. The Dow leading the way is not the most bullish scenario. Inflation data came in where expected. We'll get some talking heads tomorrow courtesy of the Fed. Plus the beginning of a new month. The markets techncial conditon remains the same. Short term overbought for an extended length of time and remaining that way. Overextended from the 50 day moving averages as well. We've gone sideways for over a week and that will have to resolve itself at some point. Gold was off a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. The fact that they didn't drop with the loss in gold itself is a plus. But GDX remains short term overbougt as well. My GDX December calls are still solidly in the black. How to manage this trade from here will be my main concern for now. However I think that perhaps the SPY December calls may be an idea at some point before option expiration. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished practically unchanged today and remains short term oversold. It has been short term oversold for practically the whole month of November. This coincides with the rally that we've seen. Once again these conditons do not last forever. We'd like to see a rise in the VIX and a decline in the S&P in order to try the December SPY calls. Markets rarely cooperate though. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll begin a new month but close out another trading week tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the downside for most of the major averages today but the Dow managed a gain of 13 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues up. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 have a bearish candlestick after todays price action. The short term indicators are beginning to possibly roll over and we are still short term overbought. End of the month tomorrow and I don't know how that will affect things. We are still way overdue for some type of decline for the S&P but we'd only be guessing if we said it would be now. Again, we'll let the market decide what to do next. Still looking at the SPY December calls if we see some pullback. Gold was up $5 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates continue to drop. The XAU was off 1/3, while GDX finished flat. Volume was average. The gold shares took a breather after yesterdays stellar gains. Still short term overbought for GDX but in rallies it can stay that way. We'll continue to hold on to the GDX December calls for now. Plenty of time left in the December option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today and the short term indicators have turned up. Still short term oversold here but not at extremes. The VIX implies that we could see some near term selling but it has been hard for me to figure out lately. Asia was generally lower and Europe generally higher. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

More of the same today as the Dow rose 83 points on light volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index continues higher. Most of the major averages had slight gains today but we did see some volatility during the session. The extended short term overbought condtion for the S&P 500 remains in place. We've been sideways here for a week. I would guess that we'd break higher from here and remain overbought but who knows? Overdue for some type of pullback but we'll let the market tell us what it's going to do. Gold was up over $25 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained over 4 3/4, while GDX climbed 1 3/8. Volume was heavy to the upside while breaking through the level of 30 which was the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern validating that. The target for the pattern lies at 34 but there is a longer term down trend line on the weekly chart that comes in at 33.25. If GDX could somehow break through that level on good volume it would imply that we've got much higher to go. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. My GDX December calls are now solidly in the black. I canceled the open order for the GDX January calls as the prices have moved past where I was willing to buy but I still like that idea going forward. We'll manage the December trade as best we can and then try and move to the January option cycle. Ideally we'll make a run to 33 in GDX and exit the December trade. Then hopefully see some kind of pullback towards the neckline and then purchase the January calls. But markets rarely cooperate with the best laid plans. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat on the session and well off of its highs for the day. Volatility did return but failed to manifest itself in price. Not sure what that implies. Still short term oversold to the extreme on the VIX. Only a couple of days left in this months trading. Asia and Europe finished mixed. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Sideways price action to start the week as the Dow fell 56 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues higher. Most indices posted losses on the day led by the TRAN. The technical conditions for the S&P 500 remain the same. Extremely short term overbought and staying that way. Still heading up in a straight line that is not sustainable forever. Would like to see a snap back to the down trend line that was broken on the daily chart but the market goes where it wants. Remaining patient with regards to the SPY as there is plenty of time left in the December option cycle. Gold was up $11 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU rose 1 7/8, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was below average. GDX is knocking on the door of the 30 level, which is the neckline of the complex inverse head and shoulders pattern. A break above there on good volume would validate the pattern. However GDX is short term overbought so some kind of stall here is possible as well. The 200 day moving average comes in just above the 30 level too. So we should know soon whether or not the original idea of the GDX calls is going to work. My GDX December calls are at a small profit once again. The open order for the GDX January calls remains out there but it doesn't look like it will get filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly up today but remains short term oversold. It remains at a low level as the fear factor has gone away for now. Not sure what comes next here but the VIX is pretty far below its 50 day moving average. That conditon will not last indefinitely. Europe and Asia were lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A mixed bag for a half day holiday session as the Dow gained 117 points on extremely light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ posted a small loss. All techncial conditons remain the same. Gold rose $10 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU added 1/2, while GDX was flat. Very light volume here as well. The gold shares didn't follow the price of gold today and that is a concern. But it's hard to put much stock in todays proceedings. Most of the major players are gone. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and I can't see it getting much lower from here. It closed at the lowest level in the past 4 years. Europe was up and Asia down with the exception of Japan to finish the week. Let's get back to the long holiday break and see how things go when everybody is back on Monday.

Drifting higher before a long holiday weekend as the Dow gained 184 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The song here remains the same and it is one of buying. The Dow led the way today. All of the major stock averages are short term overbought, some more than others. We'll have a half day session on Friday but most of the palyers will be gone until Monday. Still moving up in a straight line and the next resistance for the S&P is 4600. At the rate we're going we'll get there next week. Gold lost $9 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates are still trending sideways. The XAU rose 1/2, while GDX finished flat. Volume was pretty light. It is a plus that the gold shares held up despite the drop in gold itself. However it is a light volume holiday mode market. We are still waiting for the complex inverse head and shoulders pattern on GDX to manifest itself. My GDX December calls are still showing a slight profit. We continue to have the open order out for the GDX January calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again and is in the area where is has risen from over the past six months. Given that it is also extremely oversold we should see some type of rise from here for the VIX. Whether or not that translates into a pause for the rally remains to be seen. Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trade. Happy Thankgiving everyone.

A pause in the rally today as the Dow dropped 62 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way lower but it wasn't any kind of huge decline. Nor do I think that it is the start of something sustained to the downside. We are in a very positive seasonal period for stocks despite the straight line run up. I expect more gains into the December option expiration. But we do need a rest and perhaps today is the beginning of a sideways consolidation. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates remained flat. The XAU gained 2 3/8, while GDX added over 2/3. Volume was good to the upside but the gold shares did fall off from the best levels on the session. This is an issue holding the gold shares back as there always seems to be sellers showing up on the positive days. Not yet short term overbought on GDX but todays price action was not as positive as it should have been. The complex inverse head and shoulders pattern is still intact for GDX but we need to see a big volume breakout through the 30 level to know this pattern will work. Hasn't happened yet. My GDX December calls have moved back to a slight gains as it bounce back between gains and losses. It appears to be too late for the GDX January calls at the best entry price. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today and came off of the highs for the session. Still extremely short term oversold here. Not sure what's next for the VIX but it is overdue for some kind of rise. Tomorrow is a getaway day before a long holiday weekend so I would expect the volume to be light along with the volatility. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Still moving up as the Dow climbed 203 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way and that's a plus. Technical conditions remain the same, short term overbought and staying that way. It has been a straight line up and this cannot go on forever. These kind of moves usually don't end well but we'll have to wait and see what happens this time around. Sellers have disappeared. It is a holiday week so some of the players won't be at their desks. We just moved into the December option cycle so there is plenty of time for a trade. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on light volume. The short term indicators here remain at mid-range. My GDX December calls are still losers although the gold shares held up well despite the small drop in gold itself. The gold shares were probably just following the overall market today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped again today and is extremely short term oversold. I'm not saying that the VIX is implying some kind of decline coming up but this conditon needs to resolve itself because it too cannot go on indefinitely. Europe and Asia began the week mixed. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Expiration Friday was fairly quiet as the Dow rose a point and change on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Not much to write about today price action or lack thereof. The short term technical conditions remain the same. Overbought and staying that way. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted slight gains again. It feels like a sideways consolidation in the very short term before we move higher again but we'll have to wait and see. A holiday week ahead and the volume should taper off. We'll be on the sidelines still with regards to the SPY until after next week. Gold was off $4 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were flat. Both the XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. The short term technical indicators for GDX are mid-range and could go either way. My GDX December calls are now at a small loss as they waiver back and forth between slight gains and losses. I still have the open order out for the GDX January calls. Not sure what to expect next as we wait for the complex inverse head and shoulders pattern for GDX to make up its mind. It looked like a failure but it still has a chance so we'll continue to hold onto the calls for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold as it has been for a couple of weeks. This condition will end eventually but we can't be certain of the timing. It is supportive of higher stock prices and that has come to pass. The weekend is upon us and we'll be going over all the charts as usual. Sitting on our hands next week is the game plan and I don't think that will change. Sometimes you've got to be patient. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A mixed bag for Thursday as the Dow fell 45 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving higher. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted small gains. They both remain short term overbought on the technical indicators. Option expiration tomorrow and anything goes there. We've had a straight line up for stocks and some kind of consolidation is overdue. Perhaps next week with a holiday trading affair. But who knows? We still are of the belief that declines can be purchased. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were lower. The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX added 3/8. Both finished off of the highs for the session. Volume was heavy. The short term indicators for GDX are turning back up. My GDX December calls are back to showing a small profit. Still looking to buy some GDX January calls as my open order remains out there. If we can get to 29 on GDX tomorrow the weekly candlestick chart will be looking bullish. If not we may have to rethink what we're doing. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today. The daily chart looks like it may want to go up a bit here. So maybe we'll see some selling tomorrow. The VIX remains short term oversold for an extended period. We'll get through expiration Friday and take it from there. Still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY. Europe and Asia were generally lower. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Hanging around in the middle of option expiration week as the Dow gained 163 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Inflation data came in light. The Dow was the leader today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought and is due for a rest. Declines can be bought in my humble opinion. Most of the important economic data is already out for the week so it's anybodies guess where we go from here. We'll remain patient for now with regards to the SPY trading. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. My GDX December calls are now posting a small loss. GDX is stalling at its 50 day moving average and the short term indicators are starting to move sideways. I still have the open order out for the GDX January calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat on the session and remains short term oversold. Only a couple of days left in the November option cycle and we're approaching a short holiday week as well. My guess is that things will wind down here for the next week and half but we'll see. Ideas include getting the January GDX calls at some point and some SPY calls when we see some pullback in the overall market. Europe and Asia finished higher. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Inflation data came in lighter than expected and the market took off to the upside. The Dow gained 489 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 10 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up and just crossed the zero line back into positive territory. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way. The S&P had a gap at the open and never looked back. Still short term overbought and staying that way. We never saw a decent pullback on the way up over the past two weeks to attempt the SPY November calls. In retrospect we should have just bought anything to go along for the ride. But if you would have told me at the end of October that we would be knocking on the door of 4500 in 2 1/2 weeks, I wouldn't have believed you. Markets go where they want. Gold was up $16 on the futures. The US dollar got creamed and interest rates sank. The XAU gained 5 3/8 and GDX climbed about 1 1/3. Volume was heavy to the upside. The inverse head and shoulders pattern on the GDX daily chart might still be valid after todays price action. It has gotten more complex. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned back up. If GDX continues higher and breaks the 30 level, the mearsuring objective is still the 34 level. My December GDX calls have made it back to break even. The order for the GDX January calls hasn't been filled and it looks like it won't. I will either have to adjust it or move to a higher strike price. One day doesn't make a trend though so we'll have to see where the gold shares go from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. Nothing new here as the VIX looked like that it projected higher stock prices and that is what has come to pass. Three days remain in the November option cycle and we're most likely not going to make any SPY trades until after the holiday week goes by. The long side is the only way to go for now. A repeat of yesterday overseas as Europe was higher and Asia mixed again. We'll see how tomorrows inflation data is received.

Waiting on inflation data as the Dow rose 54 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues higher. A mixed bag though as both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted small losses. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. We're inclined to try the SPY November calls if we see some selling this week. The market rarely cooperates. Otherwise we'll most likely remain on the sidelines regarding the S&P until after the holiday next week. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were flat. The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX lost almost 1/4. Volume was very light. Gold up and the gold shares down is a negative. GDX remains short term oversold. My GDX December calls are solid losers. I did place an open order for the GDX January calls but it will take some selling to get filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and is still short term oversold. Still way below the 20 level and the VIX implies higher stock prices going forward. That doesn't mean we won't see any declines but they should be short lived. If we see some selling tomorrow and into Wednesday we'll probably try the SPY calls with just a couple of days left in the option cycle. If we go higher tomorrow we'll stay out most likely for the rest of the week. We won't try and press things either way. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to start the week. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation data tomorrow.

Powering higher as the Dow gained 391 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way up. Overbought, staying that way and the S&P 500 closed above the 4400 level. It wasn't a high volume break through but you cannot argue with price. Perhaps we'll stall in this area but the implications are clear. The market is going higher. We did not get the chance to purchase the SPY November calls that were on our radar. While we were wasting our time and effort on the gold shares the overall market powered higher. Missed opportunity. Gold fell thirty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates were flat. The XAU lost a point, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light. The potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the GDX daily chart failed to materialize. That cost us. I sold the GDX November calls today for a 95% loss. We're still holding the GDX December calls but they are in the cut the loss mode at this point. GDX is short term oversold so we'll expect a bounce soon. That should give us a chance to dump the December calls, hopefully next week. We'll have a short holiday week after that and we pobably don't want to do any option buying before then. We are looking at the GDX January calls but the medium term indicators have rolled over and the prognosis is for lower prices. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated. We saw that the overall market had turned yet we did not purchase the SPY calls. Instead I'm stuck with counting my GDX losses. Sometimes it is a humbling game. The VIX was lower today and is staying short term oversold. Perhaps it will simply stay that way in options expiration week as the market moves higher. We'll see. I'll be going over the charts this weekend to maybe find an idea for expiration week. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of India. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We finally saw some selling today as the Dow fell 220 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving higher. The NASDAQ led the way lower but it wasn't any sort of rout by any means. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to roll over. Gold was up $9 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume. The gold shares fell back from their best levels on the session. My GDX call postions remain in the red. Mentally I'm feeling tired and that is why the blog is a bit shorter than usual today. The VIX was up today which fits the downside day. The short term indicators here are still oversold. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Whatever selling that occurs continues to be met by buying but the Dow did lose 39 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. We had selling in the morning which met with buying in the afternoon. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 managed to eek out small gains. Both remain short term overbought. It looks like we won't get a chance at the SPY November calls. It seems like the market just wants to keep going up from here but we do have the 4400 level of resistance to contend with on the S&P. Almost there and what happens at that point will tell us a lot. My guess is that we'll get through there and keep on going. Gold lost $18 on the futures. The US dollar finished basically unchanged and interest rates had a slight drop. The gold shares got creamed with the XAU losing 3 1/8 and GDX down by 7/8. Volume was good moving lower again. My GDX November calls are dead. I did get filled on the open order for the GDX December calls and they are losing already. Unless the gold shares turn around tomorrow, the inverse head and shoulders pattern that I have talked about on the daily chart will be negated. It looks like that will be the case. Not sure what happened here with gold but we'll listen to what the price is telling us. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX it still heading lower and still short term oversold. This seems like a broken record. However it can last longer than you think and as long as it does we'll continue to look for higher stock prices. Asia was mostly lower and Europe generally higher. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Still waiting for the chance to try the SPY November calls but there is no pullback yet as the Dow gained 56 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The sumation index is moving up. The NASDAQ was by far the best performer on the day and that's a plus. The S&P 500 opened lower and closed higher for a one day upside reversal. But it's now seven days in a row of gains there and some type of pause is due. Not to mention the down trend line at 4400 that has to be negotiated. Plus the continued short term overbought technical condition. So we will be patient and wait for some selling before we try and get the SPY calls ahead of option expiration week. Gold dropped $13 again on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were a bit lower. The XAU fell 2 3/4, while GDX lost over 1/2. Volume was heavy to the downside but the gold shares did come up from the worst levels on the day. The potential inverse head and shoulders pattern for GDX is still intact for now. It is turning into a more complex pattern which would take longer to resolve. My GDX November calls are solid losers after todays price action. I did place an open order for some GDX December calls today. My thinking is that if that pattern on the GDX daily chart takes longer to resolve itself, I would like to go along for the eventual rise. However a continued drop in the gold shares would change things. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and remains short term oversold. During rallies the VIX simply remains oversold. It seems to be pointing to higher stock prices going forward and I agree with that. Asia and Europe were lower with the exception of Germany. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Just hanging around today as the Dow gained 34 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving higher. Slight gains for most of the major averages today as the market has to digest last weeks run up. We would not be surprised to see some selling this week and that could set us up for the SPY November calls for option expiration week. Friday is a partial holiday for Veterans day. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 are overbought. I do think that some kind of rolling over will take place. The next down trend line of resistance comes in around 4400 but I think that we'll head lower before attempting to cross that line. Perhaps we'll get a shot at the SPY November 430 calls but we'll see. Gold fell $13 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators here are trying to roll over. My GDX November calls are now showing a small loss. Not sure what's next here but on the daily chart GDX is potentially forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Volume has picked up in the gold shares but I'm not sure what that means. If the inverse pattern is for real, the measuring objective for GDX would be 34. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished unchanged on the day. The short term indicators remain oversold. Not sure what to expect next here. A lot of Fed speak this week but it's light on economic data. Asia up and Europe down to begin the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Quite a week on Wall street as the Dow capped things off with a gain of 222 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. We did see a little selling near the close but that was most likely just the short term traders taking their weekly profit. The employment report was viewed as market friendly. The NASDAQ led the way again. The S&P 500 has made it through the first down trend line of resistance. The next line that began the decline back in August comes in at 4400. My guess is that will be taken out by option expiration but we'll see. Waiting on some pullback to get the SPY November calls but we've already missed the lions share of this move. Not yet short term overbought on the indicators for the S&P. Things have changed in a hurry. Gold was up five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The gold shares came to life. The XAU gained 4 3/4, while GDX added 1 1/4. Volume was very heavy. The gold shares followed the overall market lower in the final hour. My GDX November calls are now showing a small profit. What a difference a day makes. The gold shares outperformed gold itself by a wide margin. That's usually a sign of more gains to come but we'll see what happens this time. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up with room to run. Resistance for GDX comes in at the 30 level. If we can make it through there on good volume our GDX trade will work. Hasn't happened yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is still heading lower and is still short term oversold. It can stay that way during rallies which is what we're in at the moment. We've seen a dramatic turnaround for stocks in just one week and that can't be ignored. Expect the gains to continue but not at the rapid pace that we saw this week. All signs point to higher prices going forward barring a negative external event. We'll be going over all the charts this weekend as usual to try and find an entry point for the November SPY call idea. Asia was higher and Europe mixed to finish out the week. It's Friday afternonn and time for a break.

The rally exploded to the upside today as the Dow roared ahead by 564 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The S&P 500 led the way today but all the major stock averages had stellar gains. The S&P has moved up in a straight line this week and the volume has been decent. We are now up against the first short term down trend line on the daily chart here, so some stalling may take place. However the short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up with room to go, so this line will eventually get broken to the upside. Perhaps even tomorrow. We've missed the ideal time to enter a trade with the SPY November calls but we might still get a chance if we see some kind of pullback before option expiration. Well we can hope at least. Stating the obvious, the trend is now up. Gold rose $4 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. Money is finding other places to go instead of gold now. That could change with the next problem in the Middle East but we don't know if or when that would happen. My GDX November call trade is a solid loser with a little over two weeks to go. We'll hold on for now but it could already be in the cut the loss mode for this one. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are oversold so perhaps there's still a chance this will work. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower. It is now below both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term oversold on the VIX but it stays that way during rallies. It has been quite a positive week for stocks and we'll see how the market reacts to the jobs report tomorrow. Make no mistake that the bottom is in. Europe and Asia were higher as money is moving into stocks around the globe. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The Fed spoke and the market liked what it heard as the Dow gained 221 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. Rates were left unchanged as expected. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving higher with plenty of room to go. The S&P closed just below its 200 day moving average. We are hoping for some kind of near term pullback for the opportunity to purchase the SPY November calls but it may already be too late. The bottom is in as far as we're concerned. Declines can be purchased in my view. Still plenty of time left in the November option cycle. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates dropped. The XAU and GDX finished mixed with fractional moves one way or the other on heavy volume. The volume for the gold shares has picked up but is still deciding exactly which way it wants to go. My GDX November call position remains solidly in the red for now. Getting to short term oversold on the indicators for GDX but not completely there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and is approaching short term oversold. Comfortably below the 20 level on this technical indicator now. All in all the evidence suggests that higher stock prices are in our future from here. We'll hope for some kind of pullback near term but that just may not happen. Next up is the employment report on Friday. We'll see how the markets react to that. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of India. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Moving higher as the Dow was up 123 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. My guess is that the decline is finished for now but we'll see what happens with the Fed tomorrow. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We've had five wave downside patterns complete on more than one of the major stock indices. We are in a seasonally bullish period for stocks. The S&P is both short and medium term oversold. I think that the weight of evidence says that we'll be moving higher from here. We'll see. I still like the SPY November calls, especially if we go back and test the recent low. Gold was off $11 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates rose. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was heavy to the downside. My GDX November calls are now losers. The short term indicators are heading lower with room to go. Unless things turn around for the gold shares this week, this trade will be another money burner. GDX closed below its 50 day moving average. I'm not giving up on this idea yet considering the geo-political backdrop. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX fell and broke through the short term up trend line. This is another reason to believe that the decline is over. The short term indicators are heading down with room to go. I would not be surprised if the current two day gains for stocks continued. But we'll have to see what happens with the Fed tomorrow. In general Asia was down and Europe up overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We certainly got a bounce today as the Dow climbed 511 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The Dow led the way higher. A big move up out of nowhere usually occurs in bear markets but we haven't moved the required 20% lower yet. So it's possible that the decline has ended but we won't know right away. Todays advance has turned the short term indicators for the S&P 500 up but we're still oversold there. As the week goes on we'll see if this is a one day wonder or the start of something sustainable. We've got the Fed and the jobs report due this week so there will be plenty of excuses for price movement. End of the month tomorrow as well. We still like the SPY November calls if we can get the timing right. Gold was up $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU shed 1 1/3, while GDX lost almost 1/2. Volume was average. Gold up and the gold shares down is a negative. The Middle East situation over the weekend didn't turn out as bad as predicted so far and that was an excuse to get out of the gold shares which have had a nice run. However geo-political concerns remain a wildcard and we'll hang on to our GDX November calls for now. They are still showing a small profit despite todays loss. The short term technical indicators for GDX are mid-range. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators are trying to roll over and it closed below the 20 level. If the VIX can make it down through the up trend line that lies at the 19 level we'll become more convinced that the worst is over for stocks. Hasn't happened yet but we get the feeling that it will. But we won't get ahead of ourselves because the market will eventually let us know. Europe and Asia were up with the exception of Japan. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Generally to the downside today as the Dow lost 366 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ posted a small gain but the overall market was down. The S&P 500 continues to drop and remains short term oversold. We can't even seem to have a much needed bounce. The inflation data today came in where expected. The technical condition of the market is weak and I'm not sure what's going to turn things around. Perhaps the Fed can change the mood next week. The weekly picture for the S&P 500 is oversold as well. The longer term up trend line there that started a year ago has been broken. What more can we say? Oversold, staying that way and we'll see where we go next week. I'm still considering the SPY November calls but I'm not sure where the entry point would be. Gold came to life halfway through the session and rose $20 on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates both finished flat. The XAU added 2 1/8, while GDX was up 2/3. Volume was heavy to the upside. It appears gold found buyers ahead of the weekend just in case the geo-politcal picture gets muddy. My GDX November calls are showing a small profit. GDX has bounced off of its 50 day moving average and the short term indicators are trying to turn back up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and is still above the 20 level. Not sure what's next here but if the indicators keep going higher the market will keep going lower. We've got the Fed next week with no changes in policy expected. Earnings continue to be reported. The Middle East tension hasn't gone away. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. We'll keep our eye on the charts as usual. Asia was higher and Europe lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another day another sell off as the Dow fell 251 points on better than average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues down. Earnings reports were the excuse for todays decline. The NASDAQ is still leading the way lower and that's a negative. The S&P 500 is short term oversold and staying that way. I thought that the 4200 would provide support and be the downside target for this decline. I was wrong as we have passed that level and continue to go down. Not sure what's next but perhaps 4100 will contain things. Or maybe not. The large cap tech stocks are falling apart and they have been what has been keeping things together. The potential positive divergences that we saw earlier for the overall market have been negated. I am still lookng at the SPY November calls but cannot figure out where the entry point would be right now. We'll have to remain on the sidelines for now but that could change. Gold finished flat on the session. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on heavy volume. They did finish up from the worst levels on the day. I had thought that maybe GDP would come in strong this morning and perhaps the gold shares would drop. That is what occurred. Last night I adjusted my open order for the GDX November calls and it was filled this morning. The entry was OK but maybe could have been just a little better. The position is showing a very slight gain. The short term indicators for GDX are around mid-range. So there is room to move both ways. I'm still expecting the Middle East conflict to provide a boost for gold sometime in the November option cycle but I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but not as much as expected given todays decline. Not sure what that means. Still above the 20 level here. Inflation data due out tomorrow will probably be a market mover one way or the other early on. The S&P is oversold with the summation index moving down in negative territory and we haven't even seen a decent bounce yet. Interesting times. Europe and Asia were down overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Heading back to the downside as the Dow fell 105 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The overall market was much lower than the Dow with the NASDAQ once again leading the way. The S&P 500 closed below the 4200 level and back below its 200 day moving average. Short term oversold here and staying that way. Looks like I could be wrong about it holding up at around the 4200 level if we get some follow through selling tomorrow. I didn't buy any SPY November calls today but was looking at them. Like I said yesterday, I still believe that we're closer to a bottom than to any kind of top. But who knows? Gold was up five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 1 7/8, while GDX lost 1/2. Volume was average. Gold up and the gold shares down is a negative. However I think that the gold shares just followed the overall market lower. I did adjust my open order for the GDX November calls. Still not filled yet. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over with plenty of room to go lower. So maybe the idea of trying the calls here again is wrong. I'm sticking with it for now though as the geo-political backdrop remains very uncertain. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved back up today which fits a down market. The short term indicators here are mid-range so it could go either way. I can't say that I have a good handle on where the VIX will go next. We'll probably stay on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. There is plenty of time remaining in the November option cycle. Asia and Europe were up with the exception of India. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

The bounce arrived on schedule as the Dow gained 204 points on light volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up. THere are some potential positive divergences for the S&P. It is also so far holding on to its 200 day moving average. Do we dare attempt the SPY November calls here with so much time left in the November option cycle? After all we do still feel that the S&P will hold the 4200 level going forward from here. I'll think about it tonight. Gold was off $5 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU and GDX ended about unchanged but up from the worst levels of the session. Volume was light. My open order for the GDX November calls remains out there. GDX remains short term overbought but not extremely so. Remaining patient here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued down and the short term indicators are heading lower with room to go. 18 is the level to watch here as that is where the short term up trend line lies. If the VIX can break that line we will be more convinced that long is the way to go from here. We are already pretty sure given the level of the S&P and the seasonality factor. But the market goes where it wants. We are still at the mercy of the next headline of geo-political consequence and the coming earnings announcements. However we are obviously closer to a bottom in the S&P than a top. That said we'll continue to keep a close watch on things. Europe was higher and Asia mixed last night. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A mixed bag to begin the trading week as the Dow fell 190 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ posted a slight gain but that was about it for the bulls. The S&P 500 opened with a gap lower, fought its way back to positive territory and then rolled over again. It is short term oversold so some kind of bounce is expected. The S&P did finally make it to the 4200 level and that has held for now. I still believe that the market will hold up here but I could be wrong. If we continue to drop here while being oversold it could get ugly. However I'm not keen on that scenario right now. We'll look for some kind of bounce and go from there. Gold fell ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. Those are usually positives for the price of gold. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. They both finished up from the worst levels on the day. I already have an open order in for the GDX November calls. It will take a decline in GDX to get filled so it may have to be adjusted at some point. I still think that the geo-political tension in the Middle East has legs and that the flight to safety trade is not dead yet. That said, GDX is still short term overbought but can stay that way during rallies. What we don't want to do here is think that just because there was a successful trade in GDX last option cycle that things will simply repeat in this option cycle. Not to mention it took a war breaking out to bring the gold shares to life. However the longer term down trend line for GDX was broken and higher prices should be expected after perhaps a pause to digest the gains. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that doesn't exactly fit with an overall negative market. However the VIX is short term overbought and the indicators turned lower today. Still above the 20 level. There is a short term up trend line at the 18 level that we'll be keeping an eye on. If the VIX can break below 18 there's a better chance that the decline has run its course. Some economic data due this week including GDP and inflation numbers. But it remains a headline risk environment. Asia was lower and Europe generally higher to start the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

The selling continues heading into the weekend as the Dow fell 286 points on average volume. The advance/declines were close to 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way lower. At this rate it doesn't look like the 4200 level will hold for the S&P 500 but I'm still a believer that it will. The S&P has made it down to and closed below its 200 day moving average. However there's still more room for the short term indicators to go lower. Perhaps the market knows things that we don't and that is usually the case. The NASDAQ closed at a new low for its decline. It is a nervous market with geo-political tensions taking over instead of the usual economic data. This too will eventually pass and the sidelines isn't the worst place to be for now. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures but off of the best levels on the day. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates fell. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses and also finished far from the highs on the session. I did sell all my positions in the GDX October calls after the market opened. The timing was dreadful as the gold shares rallied after I sold the calls. Two of the positions managed to show a profit and one had a loss. The entry on this trading idea was premature and the exit followed suit on the last day to trade. Having three separate positions for the same trade is not the normal way that I do things. However the technical signal was there and I believed in it despite the trade not working in the beginning. Having an extra week to work with certainly was a factor. But the overall timing was horrible. It took a war in the Middle East for this trade to not be a huge loss. The overall trade somehow produced a profit of a little over 100%. Could and should have been better. Doesn't matter now and we're moving on. Already looking at the GDX November calls. A snap back to the longer term trend line that was broken is the next technical expectation. If and when that occurs I'll take a closer look at those GDX calls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit miffed at the way that I got out of todays trade. Had no patience but I don't usually hold on to option positions to the very last trading day. The VIX was higher again today and is above the 20 level. That spells trouble for stocks if we stay above there. The short term indicators are overbought now though. Not sure what's next here. We're still at the mercy of headline risk. We will be checking the charts over the weekend. Asia and Europe are still moving down as the selling around the globe continues. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

More selling today as the Dow fell 250 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. We went back and forth for a while before heading lower in the second half of the day. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down. The Russell 2000 just broke to new lows for this move lower along with the TRAN. It appears that the S&P 500 is going to retest its recent lows. The short term indicators here are moving lower and are not yet even close to being oversold. If we do go lower from here, I think that the S&P will hold around the 4200 level. But I could be wrong. Still at the mercy of whatever headline pops up next and 3rd quarter earnings. Option expiration Friday tomorrow. Gold rallied $18 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were mixed. The XAU and GDX finished little changed after being lower early on. Volume was a bit above average. Once again the gold shares did not follow the price of gold higher and that's a negative. But the gold shares could just be following the overall market lower. One day to go for my GDX October calls and I'm still holding on to them. They lost some more ground today. But I'll be out of this trade tomorrow as time has run its course. I still like the gold share calls going forward as the longer term down trend line there has been broken. We'll try and wait for GDX to get back to short term oversold before attempting this idea again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and has closed above the 20 level. The short term indicators here are not yet overbought so we could see some more selling in stocks. Should be an interesting expiration Friday. Asia and Europe were down as it's a worldwide dumping of stocks. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Sellers took over today as the Dow dropped 332 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to tracking sideways. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The S&P 500 couldn't make it above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here have rolled over with room to go lower. Waiting on earnings and the next shoe to drop in the Middle East. I'm not sure what is next near term for the stock market. We'll remain on the sidelines regarding the SPY for now. Gold rallied as the futures were up $28. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The gold shares did not go along for the ride with gold and that is not a plus. GDX opened with a gap to the upside and sold off for the rest of the session. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on better than average volume. My GDX call positions lost some ground today. Just two days left here in this trade. Not sure why I'm still holding on to them considering todays negative price action. However the geo-politcal backdrop is about as good as it gets for flight to safety havens and gold is proving to be one this time around. Probably should exit the position tomorrow. We'll see. It appears the gold shares followed the overall market lower today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits a down market. Getting close to the 20 level and if it gets above there we'll really see some fireworks. Hasn't happened yet and I'm not saying that it will. The short term indicators here have room to go either way. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Back and forth today as the Dow rose 13 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to move higher. We opened with a big gap to the downside. The market then rallied back to positive territory, only to move lower once again. Sideways was the trend for the final couple of hours. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought on some of the indicators and stuck below its 50 day moving average. I'm not sure what the next catalyst will be or which way we're going. So far it looks like the positive option expiration week bias is showing up. The NASDAQ was lower on the session though. We are still at the mercy of the next headline coming from the Middle East. Gold finished the day flat. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates rose. The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares outperformed the metal itself and that's a plus. The light volume is a concern though as is the time remaining in the October option cycle. Not to mention that the gold shares are short term overbought. My GDX October call positions are back to showing decent gains with one exception. I'm not sure how much longer I'll hold on to this position. GDX did make it through the longer term down trend line today but the volume was lackluster. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits with the volatility. Mid-range on the short term techncials makes predicting where it goes from here difficult. I'm on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Three days left in the October option cycle with more uncertanties than usual and a Middle East conflict. Tough trading to be sure. Earnings seem to be in the back seat for now. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Moving higher to begin option expiration week as the Dow gained 314 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to move back up. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. The market seems to be shrugging off the geo-political tensions but that could change in a flash. Short term overbought now for the S&P 500. Perhaps the positive option expiration week bias will win out but it's only Monday. Earnings will be front and center for a few weeks but the market is still in a news headline risk mode. Tough trading to be sure and only four days left in the October option cycle. WE will most likely remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY. Gold was off almost ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU had a slight fractional gain and GDX finished the day flat. Volume was light. GDX is stalling at the longer term down trend line at 29 and that is to be expected. My GDX October call position is still shwoing a profit but not as much as when the day started. Plenty of risk remains in this trade with only four days left. If GDX can make it though the trend line the profit on this trade will be pretty good. If GDX pulls back from here there probably won't be any profit at all or perhaps a loss. My thinking is that the next negative headline out of the Middle East will drive gold higher but I could be wrong. Or this week remains status quo there and gold drifts lower. I could also just get out with whatever gain this trade is showing now and be done with it. As usual the trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators here are around mid-range. So the VIX could go either way from here. We'll watch and see what develops overnight and take it from there. Asia was lower and Europe higher to start the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

It is a nervous market as Middle East geo-political tensions have come to a head. The Dow managed a gain of 39 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is now tracking sideways. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way by a large margin. That is not a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over with plenty of room to go lower. I'm not sure what's next but the smaller stocks are leading the way down and that's another negative. Options expiration week coming up with plenty of uncertainty. Things seem like they want to go lower here but we'll have to see what happens over the weekend. It's a tricky time to try and navigate what will happen next. Perhaps we'll get a shot at the SPY October calls next week after all. But you've got to be nimble and pay complete attention. The risk might just be too high vs. the reward. We'll consider what to do over the weekend. Gold took over as the flight to safety choice as the futures soared $58. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates dipped. The XAU climbed 4 3/4, while GDX gained almost 1 1/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. GDX has reached the target of the down trend line that began in May at the 29 level. It makes sense that it is stalling here but there's a chance that it could get through and move even higher next week. It could also be turned around here as well but with the problems in the world at the moment that doesn't seem to be in the cards. But anything can happen in this game. My GDX October call positions went from solid losers to a showing a profit overnight. Two of the positions are now in the black, with the other showing a small loss. I'll have to check and see where the next upside target lies on the daily chart. I would have liked to see a better gain in the gold shares today considering that gold went up over fifty bucks. But we'll take what we can get. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and made it over the 20 level at one point. The short term indicators are now moving back up. This implies more volatility to come which will most likely make next week very interesting in the markets. We are at the mercy of headline risk with geo-political uncertainties front and center. We'll do the best we can given the circumstances. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Volatility returned today as the Dow fell 173 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is now tracking sideways. It seemed like a quiet session as the inflation report came in where expected. However halfway through the day the market sold off 60 S&P points in a little over an hour. It attempted to come back the rest of the day. The S&P is more overbought than oversold here but not at extremes. The smaller stocks got hit hard today and that is not a plus. The very negative breadth is a warning as well. One day does not make a trend but it appears that the recent rise has run its course. Gold dropped $6 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX lost over 1/2. Volume was average. My GDX October calls went from break even back to solid losers with todays loss for GDX. GDX has been turned back by its 50 day moving average. In retrospect it appears yesterday was the time to exit this trade. There's still six days left in the October option cycle. If GDX doesn't turn back up tomorrow this trade will probably be left for dead. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved back up today and remains above its 50 day moving average. Not sure where it is heading next. There is plenty of room for the short term indicators to move higher. That would not bode well for stocks in the near term. We made it through the inflation data but I'm not sure what the next catalyst for market movement will be. Option expiration week is coming next week. Still plenty of geo-political turmoil to get through and earnings season is about to begin again. We'll keep an eye on things as usual. Asia was higher and Europe mixed again overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Another day of gains despite higher than expected inflation data as the Dow rose 65 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index has turned back up. We did see some selling during todays session but the market climbed back in the final two hours. Once again we had news that you would think would lead to a negative market but it didn't. The NASDAQ continues to lead and that's a plus. Getting to short term overbought on the S&P 500 but not there yet. Maybe we'll make it to the 50 day moving average at 4410. After that we have a down trend line on the daily chart that comes in just above 4450. But perhaps we're getting ahead of ourselves as we still have the consumer inflation report to digest tomorrow. Gold added another dozen on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates slipped. The XAU gained 2 1/4 and GDX added 1/2. Volume was average. GDX had made it back to its 50 day moving average and is not yet short term overbought. The down trend line on the daily chart that began in May lies at the 29 level. We are alomst there and that should prove to be a stopping point for this short term uptrend. But we'll see. The geo-political background has had a near term influence on the price of gold to be sure. Not sure how long that lasts. My GDX October call positions have made it back to one winner, one break even and one loser. The combined total is now back to break even. This is more than I could have hoped for a week ago but the world has changed. There's still almost a week and half left in the October option cycle but I probably shouldn't get greedy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. Still above the 50 day moving average here and just about short term oversold. The VIX is now comfortably below the 20 level. Asia was up and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to tomorrows inflation report and go from there.

Continuing higher today as the Dow rose 134 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned around and is trying to move higher. We did finish well off the highs for the session heading into the inflation data. With all that is going on in the world it has been an impressive week so far for stocks. I do think that we've put in the bottom at 4220 for the S&P 500 however that doesn't mean we won't head lower again in the coming sessions. That level should contain any more selling though in my view. If we do get back there it would be the spot to try the SPY October calls. But I don't think that we will get back that low. I could be wrong. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are heading up and are not yet completely overbought. Gold was up another $9 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were steady after dropping in the futures market yesterday. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are the same as for the S&P. Pointing up and not yet short term overbought. My GDX October calls remain the same with one position showing a profit and the other two showing losses. I'm still trying to cut the loss here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits the market price action for Tuesday. The short term indicators are heading lower with room to run. However the VIX, like the overall market, could turn at any time. Which makes the reaction to the inflation data important as we try and figure out where we go from here. One of our indicators for the S&P is short term overbought so a drop from here would not be a surprise. But an extended decline from these levels would be. We'll watch and wwait to see what happens. Europe and Asia were up overnight with the exception of China. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.