The market tried to rally today but failed as the Dow lost 280 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. Oversold, staying that way and that is never a good sign. Overdue for a bounce but the S&P 500 closed below the support at 3975. It looks like the next stop will be 3900. The NASDAQ wasn't the leader today and that's a small plus. Buyers are on a boycott. I've got to believe that we'll see some kind of upside before the week is out. Perhaps the jobs report will encourage some short covering at least. But it appears that the tide has now turned and we'll be looking to purchase some SPY September puts at some point if we get the chance. Gold dropped another $15 on the futures. The US dollar remained steady but interest rates rose. The XAU fell 1 1/2 and GDX shed 1/4. Volume was lighter than average. I'm not sure how much lower the gold shares can go as they are completely blown out to the downside both short and medium term. Patience here still for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and that doesn't fit with a down market. Still short term overbought for the VIX. I do not have a good feel for what the VIX is doing at this time. It is back above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. I can say that the way the markets are acting it feels like lower prices are in our future. Just how low is the question. At this point I don't have an answer. Are we going back to the June lows? We'll see. Beginning of the month tomorrow and the employment report on Friday. Europe and Asia were both weak in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Still heading lower as the Dow fell 308 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The S&P 500 has made it to the up trend line at 3975 and is holding on for now. Some kind of bounce should come in here as the S&P is short term oversold and we are right at the level of support that we were looking for. The 50 day moving average is also trying to stem the decline. If things don't hold on here 3900 would be the next spot to look for some reprieve from the selling. We thought that the bear was dead but perhaps it just went into hibernation during the summer rally. The inverse head and shoulders pattern on the S&P 500 daily chart is still a possibility however at this rate of decline it isn't going to happen. Gold was off $15 on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates remained steady. The XAU fell almost 3 points, while GDX lost 1/2. Volume was average. The gold shares are short term oversold and have broken their near term level of support. We're still looking at the GDX October calls but are not convinced this is the right idea at this time. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished with just a slight gain despite the market decline. Short term overbought here. Not sure what to expect from the VIX next. Tomorrow is the last day of the month so there might be some position squaring going on. The continued light volume is a factor of the lack of buyers and also players on one last summer fling away from their desks. We do have the jobs report on Friday to deal with. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll be looking for some kind of bounce tomorrow.

It was a day of stabalization after Fridays debacle as the Dow fell 184 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Short term oversold now for most of the major indices. Some are trying to hold on here at their 50 day moving averages. We're keeping an eye on the up trend line at 3975 for the S&P 500. That should be the moment of truth for what's going on here. There is a possibility that the daily chart on the S&P is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. That would prove to be quite a surprise. But it's only a potential for now as we'll see how things play out as time goes on. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold finished flat on the session as did the US dollar. Interest rates rose. The XAU fell 1 1/3, while GDX was off 1/3. Volume was average. I'm looking at the October GDX calls now but in no hurry to do anything. The positive seasonal period now for gold is offset by the poor current fundamentals for the precious metal. GDX is short term oversold here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did finish down form the best levels of the session. It is short term overbought which normally would imply that we'll see some gains for stocks near term. However it's quite possible that these aren't normal times after the sell off on Friday. So I'm not getting a good feel for what the VIX is doing here. The Russell 2000 led the way down and then back up recently. It hasn't been dropping as much as the rest of the pack here relatively speaking. So perhaps we are not on the verge of a major decline but that's just a guess on my part. The summation index continues to move down and we'll take our cues from there. Europe and Asia were lower to start the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Stocks got rocked today as the speech from chairman Powell led to massive selling. The Dow fell just over a thousand points on light volume. There were no buyers on a summer Friday. The advance/declines were better than 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading back down. The NASDAQ was off almost 500 points and led the way down. The S&P 500 is back to oversold in a hurry. The next area of support is at the 50 day moving average around the 4000 level. Then comes the up trend line that began in June at about 3975. At this pace we'll get there next week. I certainly did not expect such a negative market reaction today. We also didn't get the light volume rally back to the 200 day moving average we were hoping for. It looks like the ship has sailed for the SPY September put idea. Not sure on what we are going to do next. Gold was off twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished higher and interest rates were only up slightly. The XAU fell almost five points, while GDX shed 1 1/4. Volume was good to the downside. Not sure if we want to step in and buy the GDX calls here as it looks like the support is about to break. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up today and closed above both the 200 and 50 day moving averages. No way I saw that coming. The short term indicators turned back up and are getting overbought. Yesterday it looked like the VIX was going to fall and stock prices were going to rise. Today the exact opposite occurred. Hence, this is why we often say that the market will go where it wants. So where do we go from here? I'll be going over the charts this weekend as there will be plenty of work to do. With September looming it appears as though today is the precursor to lower prices. It won't be a straight line but the trend has turned back down. The summer rally has run its course. Will we make it down to the lows of June? Who knows? For now we'll just try and figure out a near term strategy. Asia was up and Europe down to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

No summer doldrums today as the Dow soared 332 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus. Perhaps what the Fed chairman says tomorrow won't matter as the market is already moving higher. Or perhaps the market knows things that we don't. We expected some kind of bounce and we're getting it. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned around and they have plenty of room to move up. We will wait and see if the S&P can make it back to the 200 day moving average and then we'll decide what to do there. If the volume remains on the light side we'll probably try the SPY September puts. Gold gained $8 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with most interest rates. The XAU rose a point and GDX was up about 1/4. Volume was light. Still on the sidelines with regards to the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower and its 50 day moving average just dropped through the 200 day. This is saying that we'll be getting lower VIX readings and higher stock prices. The short term techncial indicators for the VIX have rolled over with plenty of room to go down. We've already declared the bear dead and the VIX is another indicator that confirms it. Could things turn around and the stock market move lower? Anything is possible in this game but the odds are stacked against it in the near term at this point. Whatever comes out of the Fed chairmans speech tomorrow will probably be viewed as a positive and the markets should move higher. So we'll see how it goes. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. All ears on what Powell has to say tomorrow.

More hanging around in the summer again today as the Dow gained 59 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending down. It was another light volume, going nowhere kind of day. Waiting on the Fed chairman to speak on Friday. Even that can only do so much. I'm still in the camp that thngs don't really get going until after Labor day. The S&P 500 has stopped going lower and I expect some kind of bounce here. There are a couple of gaps to fill. If we see a light volume rally back up to the recovery highs we will seriously consider the SPY September puts. For now patience is the best strategy as the S&P is short term oversold on some of the technical indicators. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar held steady while interest rates continued their climb. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX rose about 1/4. volume was light. No hurry to trade the gold share options right now. Again, waiting things out for a while seems to be the best course of action/inaction. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and was turned back at the 200 day moving average. The short term indicators here are rolling back down. The 50 day moving average is about to pass through the 200 day. That is a bullish sign for the VIX to move lower and implies higher prices for stocks. But we'll see. It would fit in with my scenario of a near term bounce for the market. So for now we'll remain on the sidelines and most likely let this week pass. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trading. We'll see if we get some more summer doldrums tomorrow.

A lot of hanging around today as the Dow fell 154 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving lower. The Dow led the way down but it wasn't dramatic as the prvious two sessions. I expect things to work there way higher from here going into Friday. Some of the short term indicators for the market are oversold. There's still room to decline to the next up trend line for the S&P 500 but I don't think we'll get there in a straight line. I could be wrong. The small stocks held up relatively better today and that's a plus. The declines for the S&P along with the NASDAQ were minimal. It is the end of August and the last of the vacations for the major players this summer. So I wouldn't expect too much until after Labor day. If we see a light volume rally from here back to the 200 day moving average, we'll consider the September SPY puts. Gold bounced back $11 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 2 1/3, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was light. We're still considering the gold share calls but will wait for now. This very well could be a time when patience pays off. I do think that the markets could be on hold until next month. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today but is still stuck below its 200 day moving average which is proving to be resistance. It is also next to the top Bollinger band on the daily chart. That is why I would be surprised if the VIX goes higher from here in the short term. It is another reason why I think the recent decline has run its course for now. But as always the market will go where it wants. We'll remain on our hands for now but searching for the next trading opportunity. Europe and Asia traded lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Lower to begin a summer week in August as the Dow dropped 643 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index has turned around and is now moving lower. The summer rally is taking a break. Is it over for good? We'll know more as time goes on. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over but aren't yet oversold. There is an up trend line there that comes in around the 50 day moving average. That would be a logical place for the selling to stop and we've only had a couple of days down. The NASDAQ led the way down and that's a negative. 200 day moving averages proved to be barriers. We'll see how it goes from here. Gold fell $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. GDX has reached short term oversold but it would be very hard to try the calls here with all the fundamentals going against it. The gold shares holding up with a drop in gold today is bullish though. However a rising dollar along with higher interest rates doesn't fit with gold moving up. The trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and one of the short term indicators is already overbought after remaining oversold for weeks. This implies that the decline will be short lived but we'll see about that. The VIX was turned back at its 200 day moving average and that's a plus for the bulls. However the downside channel that formed in the daily chart has been violated to the upside so that pattern has reached its conclusion. What we can say with certanty is that the market has reached a turning point. Europe and Asia were lower to begin the week as well. We'll keep an eye on the after hours developments.

Selling was the theme of the day as the Dow lost 292 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is now stalling. The NASDAQ led the way down. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over. Not sure if this is actually the beginning of something sustained to the downside or just an expiration Friday event. The near term up trend line in the S&P has been violated but there's another up trend line at lower levels. The breadth today was the weakest that we've seen in a while so we'll keep an eye on that. Also if the summation index starts to drop we'll know that a change is at hand. Gold dropped another ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar continued its climb along with most interest rates. The XAU fell 2 2/3, while GDX lost over 1/2. Volume was light. GDX is getting to short term oversold on the indicators. Will we try the calls here again? Gold is in a seasonally positive time period but the fundamentals right now don't add up to higher gold prices. We'll ponder the possibilities over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up a point but still remains short term oversold. It also remains in the downward channel that began in June. It is oversold on both the short and medium term time frames so maybe it's time for volatility to make a return. It is a normally weak time period for stocks. Perhaps the summer rally has run its course but we'll know more in the coming days. We'll be going over the charts this weekend as we roll into the September option cycle. Europe and Asia were generally lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Hanging around would be the best way to descibe todays lack of price movement as the Dow rose 18 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving up. We went back and forth today but didn't do much either way. It had a summer doldrums feel to it even though it is option expiration week. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and is stalling at its 200 day moving average. Not sure what to expect for expiration Friday. Major stock indexes are either at or close to their 200 day moving averages. What happens from here will tell us a lot about the summer rally and if it continues. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves slightly higher on very light volume once again. No real interest in the precious metals at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower, remains oversold and this is sounding like a broken record for those old enough to remember when music was played on a phonograph. The VIX implies that the rally will live on as it is below the 20 level and dropping. With the VIX action and the stock market rally we have declared the bear dead. The only thing that would change that is if the 200 day moving averages proved to be resistance. In that case this would be the mother of all bear market rallies. But that scenario is slim at this point. Asia lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

Some selling today as the Dow fell 171 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. We had a gap down at the open, started to move higher after the Fed minutes and then sold into the close. The NASDAQ led the way down. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought despite todays drop. It is hesitating at the 200 day moving average. It's tough when the trades that got stopped out yesterday would have turned a profit today but that is just part of the game. Timing is everything and it certainly gets tougher during option expiration week. Will this be the beginning of an extended decline? Hard to say as buyers have seemed to be ready to step up at any hint of selling lately. So we'll see. Perhaps a top needs to build before we really head lower. Or not. The S&P is pretty far from the 50 day moving average though. Gold dropped ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates rose. The XAU fell over 4 points, while GDX shed almost a point. Volume was good to the downside. Not yet short term oversold for the gold shares so we will wait and see. The fundamentals are still unfavorable for the precious metals at this point. Mentally I'm still feeling frustrated especially after the market finally moved lower today. But you've got to simply move on because the market doesn't care how you feel. The VIX was only up slightly with todays stock market drop and finished well below the best levels of the day. Still short term oversold on the VIX. I think the VIX could go either way here and that will tell us a lot about where things are at. If the market is indeed about to roll over now the VIX will have to get moving higher. If not we could see new recovery highs for stocks going into Friday expiration. Either way I'm probably staying on the sidelines for now. Asia up and Europe down last night. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A mixed picture today as the Dow gained 239 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues up. Small stocks took a breather as the NASDAQ had a small loss. The S&P 500 continues to be short term overbought but did drop back from the best levels of the day. My SPY August puts got stopped out for a 35% loss. Would I like to try them again? Well yes, but after two straight losses I'll have to sit things out for the rest of the week. My short term timing has never been that good and this week reinforces that fact. Do I still expect some kind of drop this week? I do but things could just run up into the expiration before the market takes a break. The Dow was the leader today and that sometimes is a sign that things will be cooling off. Perhaps we'll get some sellers after tomorrows Fed minutes are released. Gold was off $7. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates were up slightly. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on extremely light volume. Still waiting for an oversold reading on GDX to try the calls there again. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as losing trades will do that. Stepping back right now would not be a bad idea. At least the money management was handled properly as I adhered to the stop loss orders. But it's really no consolation. The VIX was lower and closed below the 20 level. Still oversold here and there seems to be no end to that. Hence a rally that has gone on as long as this one. The declining trend channel remains intact and the 50 day average is getting close to dropping below the 200 day. The rally could surprise even more to the upside if that occurs. The stock market lately has had a summer trading feel to it with lighter volume and a lack of volatility. Europe was higher and Asia generally lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

More of the same to begin option expiration week as the Dow gained 151 points on light volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index is moving higher. It was a one day reversal to the upside as we opened lower and closed higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way. Overbought for the major averages and staying that way. I did try the SPY August puts early but obviously the timing was off. I sold them back for a 40% loss. I am however still a believer in a decline early this week and bought them again at a closer to the money strike price. Those are showing a small loss. The stop loss order is in. Very risky with only 4 days left in the August option cycle. Plus we could just see higher prices into the expiration on Friday. However we don't trust light volume rallies and that's what we're seeing now. Gold dropped $20 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates had a slight decline. The XAU fell two points, while GDX shed over 1/2. Volume was light here. Waiting for GDX to get oversold on the daily chart before trying the GDX calls again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up just a bit today which doesn't fit with a postive market. Oversold forever here or so it seems. Just below the important 20 level. The VIX is overdue for a spike but we certainly don't know what would be the catalyst. The S&P 500 hit the 4300 level today and is just below its 200 day moving average. The summar rally remains intact. I am trying the SPY puts here but it could just end up being back to back losses. However I do think that some kind of pause is coming sooner rather than later. I could be wrong. Europe and Asia were generally higher but it wasn't what you'd call a rally. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

The summer rally continues as the Dow gained 424 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 higher. The summation index is moving up. Stock indices are overbought and staying that way. Down trend lines have been broken to the upside. The bear is dead regardless of what you might hear. I did place several orders for the SPY August puts today as I modified them as we went up. I have one in as I'm writing todays blog but it probably won't get filled either. I can try again Monday morning if I desire. However trading the short side here is dangerous as it appears prices will be run up into option expiration. That said I do think we're in for a rest at some point next week and sooner rather than later. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way higher. The Russell 2000 just broke through its 200 day moving average. We closed the week at the highs. I'll probably try the SPY puts on any strength Monday morning. But make no mistake that the trend is up. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were mixed. The XAU gained 2 1/8, while GDX was up over 1/2. Volume was light. Still short term overbought for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX went back down today and is again below the 20 level. The VIX has been moving lower in a steady channel since the lows of the market in June. As long as the VIX remains this way the overall trend for stocks is up. The lower the VIX goes below 20 the stronger the up trend becomes. However we have been oversold on this indicator for so long on a daily basis that I'm pretty sure it is on its last legs moving lower. It is another eason that I would like to try the SPY puts on Monday. But we'll go over the charts this weekend and figure out the plan. It could be to just remain on the sidelines. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Markets rallied early on the tame inflation data but spent the rest of the day selling off. The Dow rose 27 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 had one day reversals to the downside as they closed negative. Yes the July inflation numbers were low as gas prices came down and commodities sank during that timeframe. It's all about where we go from here as inflation is by no means dead. I did place an order for the SPY August puts overnight but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it out there for now in hopes of a return to todays highs in the next couple of sessions. Running out of time in the August option cycle. The Russell 2000 has stalled today at its 200 day moving average. I would keep a close eye on what happens there but for now all signs point to higher prices going forward. Then why try the puts? Well, it won't be a straight line up and the market has been short term oversold for weeks. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates rose despite the weak inflation data. The XAU was off 2 1/3 and GDX slipped 1/2. Volume was light. I canceled my order for the GDX September calls. Might try it again if GDX gets back to short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today and is now at the 20 level. Short term oversold for weeks here and another reason to take a shot at the index puts. That would be the theory but the reality doesn't always match. I also would not be surprised if the market simply continues higher into option expiration next Friday. The trading is never easy. We'll see things shake out tomorrow and go from there. Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Tame inflation data led to a huge rally today as the Dow soared 535 on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus. The small stocks have been leaders both on the way down and on the way back up. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and has now crossed 4200. The bear looks to be dead. Yes we are still thinking about the SPY puts but we don't want to get in front of this move up. It could simply plow higher into the expiration next week. Down trend lines that have been in effect since the beginning of the decline are being broken on some of the major averages. The producer prices tomorrow should bode well for more gains. Gold dropped $5 on the futures. The US dollar sank, while interest rates were a bit lower after being down more early on. The XAU was up 1 1/3 and GDX had a fractional gain. Volume was light. I do still have an open order out for the GDX September calls but am considering canceling it. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as the long term money we have wasn't deployed after the market dropped over 20%. We were looking at it but did not do anything. The rally here is for real and we don't see the market getting back towards 3600 again. The VIX had a big drop and is now below the 20 level. This is what we've been waiting for but now we're here and it feels like it will simply continue lower. Oversold for an extremely long time on the daily VIX. But if it simply continues to move lower here below 20 it is another confirmation that the bear market is over. We cannot argue with the charts. I'll think about whether or not I want to take the risk of trying the SPY August puts tonight and perhaps place an overnight order. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll look for some upside follow through tomorrow.

A summer session to be sure as the Dow fell 58 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher. Inflation data due for the next couple of days and it should be market positive. We continue to wait for the S&P 500 to reach 4200 before thinking about purchasing the SPY August puts. The NASDAQ led the way lower but we don't think this is the start of any long term decline. As long as the summation index moves forward the trend is up. Gold added five bucks on the futures today. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. GDX is now short term overbought on some of the short term techncial indicators. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today and remains oversold. Still waiting on the 20 level here before trying the SPY puts. Waiting pretty much sums up what the stock market did today. We'll get the CPI tomorrow and the market reaction to it and go from there. Europe and Asia were mixed. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We begin the week with a mixed picture as the Dow gained 29 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had small losses. The S&P remains short term overbought. We're still waiting for the 4200 level before trying the SPY August puts. Inflation data on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. So it still remains a waiting game for now. Gold was up over a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 2 2/3, while GDX was up 3/4. Volume was average. My order for the GDX September calls is still out there but won't get filled at this rate. Might have to cancel it and look for something else. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly and remains short and medium term oversold. Looking for the 20 level here for an entry to the SPY puts. Not quite there but the VIX has remained oversold during most of the summer rally. It will not be oversold forever. However trying to figure out when it turns is the problem. For now the market is stronger than it has been all year and the bulls are in control. Sellers have retreated and I'm not sure what brings them back. This time of the year usually favors the bears but they've gone into hibernation for now. Perhaps todays candlestick on the daily Russell 2000 chart marks some kind of near term top. The Russell has led the way up. Europe and Asia were up to start the week. We'll keep an eye on the news of the evening.

It is a market that just doesn't want to go down. The Dow gained 76 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues to rise. We opened with a huge gap lower on a hotter than expected jobs report. However buyers stepped up and we traded back and forth for the rest of the session. The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ did finish in the red but came well off of their lows. The major indices remain short term overbought. I did place an order for the SPY August puts but canceled it. I guess that I will wait for the 4200 on the S&P 500 or just sit things out here. The Russell 2000 continues higher and has been the leader to the upside. Unless we see a change there the trend remains up. Gold fell $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on lighter volume. The gold shares also had a gap lower at the open only to make a comeback for the rest of the day. My open order for the GDX September calls is still out there. Won't get filled at the price I'm willing to pay at this rate. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued its downward trend and is getting closer to the 20 level. It has been short term oversold for quite a while but trying to figure out when it will reverse is a guessing game. I'm still inclined to perhaps attempt the SPY August puts if the VIX hits 20 and the S&P is at 4200. Things rarely, if ever, fit your trading plans. There's still two weeks left in the August option cycle. At the rate the market is going it appears that maybe traders will just bid things higher into expiration Friday. We'll see. I'll go over the charts over the weekend and try to come up with something. Asia higher and Europe lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Waiting on the jobs data as the Dow fell 85 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly negtive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ had a gain and that's bullish. Still short term overbought for the major stock averages. Looking for 4200 on the S&P to try the SPY August puts. However as long as the summation index is going up the path of least resistance is higher. Gold was up over $30 on the futures and crossed the $1800 level. We've seen an upside reversal there. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU climbed 3 2/3, while GDX was up 7/8. Volume was good. GDX has broken through the down trend line on the daily chart that began in April. I'm leaving my open order out there but it appears that I'm too late. Perhapd an adjustment will be necessary. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower, remains oversold and is below 22. If it gets to 20 that's a spot to try the SPY August puts as well. Not sure how much to read into tomorrows data but as always the markets response will be the key. Europe and Asia had gains overnight. We'll close out the first week of August tomorrow.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 416 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues to climb. The NASDAQ is leading the way and that is bullish. Short term overbought and staying that way for the major averages. It has been a great summer rally. We are just about at the 50% retracement level of the decline for the S&P 500. That comes in at approximately 4200-4220. That will be the last chance for the bears to make a stand most likely. It is also the area to try the SPY August puts. At the rate we're going we could get there by the end of the week. It's not without risk though as the rising summation index clearly states that we're in a rally. Gold lost $7 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed along with interest rates. Rates did rise early but then retreated as the day moved on. The XAU fell almost 2 points, while GDX lost 1/3. Volume was good. I placed another order for the GDX September calls and I'm leaving it out there. Not exactly sure this is the right move and I'll reconsider it overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and closed below 22. Short term oversold and staying that way here. The VIX implies higher prices in the near term. Evidently the employment report on Friday will not present any obstacles to the rally at least in terms of what the VIX is saying for now. Although we've entered a normally weak seasonal period for stocks they obviously didn't get the memo. The Russell is leading the way up and we'll keep an eye on that. I'll try and remain patient to wait for the 4200 level on the S&P. We'll see. Europe was higher and Asia mostly so as well. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Some selling today as the Dow fell 402 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues up. The Dow led the way lower, clearly underperforming the major averages. The NASDAQ held up rather well and that's a plus. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I do believe that we'll see higher prices there before the week is done. The TRAN did have a big drop today and that will be something to keep an eye on. Waiting for 4150-4200 on the S&P to start thinking about the SPY August puts. The path of least resistance remains higher as long as the summation index continues to move forward. Gold was off about ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates today. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was good to the downside. Perhaps if the gold shares make it back to short term oversold territory we'll consider the GDX September calls again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and the short term technical indicators have turned back up. It does remain below the 200 day average. For some reason I just don't think we're on the verge of a huge decline but I could be wrong. The Russell 2000 was barely negative today and continues to lead the way up. If it were to reverse here then I would have to change my view. It is short term overbought but the tone of the overall market lately certainly hasn't been bearish. As always we'll keep a close eye on things and see where we go from here. Perhaps the jobs data on Friday will give us some clues. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A pause in the rally to start the week as the Dow fell 46 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. Short term overbought and staying that way for the major averages. In my view this is not a top yet as I expect the S&P 500 to get to the 4150-4200 level before taking a breather. I could be wrong but with the summation index leading the way along with the Russell 2000, I expect some more gains in the near future. We're still dealing with 2nd quarter earnings and then we'll get the jobs data on Friday. Gold was up around $5 on the futures. The US dollar continued to drop along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on pretty light volume. I'm still considering trading the GDX calls again but not sure of the timing just yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a good bounce higher today but it was not reflected in the loss for stocks. Not sure what to make of that except that the market tone has changed and we are in a bullish mode for now. I would like to try the SPY August puts at some point but will have to wait for the VIX to get back below 22 again. The 20 level is the line in the sand here. Too late to try the index calls now in my opinion. So it is simply watch and wait for now. Asia was higher and Europe lower in trading overseas last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.