Some selling as traders returned to their desks as the Dow fell 222 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher. Not the worst session in the world as the Dow led the way lower. The S&P 500 is getting short term overbought on some but not all of the indicators. We started going straight up last week and that cannot last forever. Plenty of overhead resistance for the S&P with the next down trend line coming in at around 4250. End of the month today and a short trading week. Jobs report due out on Friday. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold dropped $17 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 3 1/3, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was about average. It appears that the short term indicators for the gold shares are rolling over. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up but just slightly. The 50 day moving average is still resistance for this indicator to move lower for now. Getting oversold on some of the short term indicators as well. My thinking was that the 50 day would not hold up but I could be wrong. That would imply more selling going forward. We'll know by the end of the week. I'd expect positive money flows though since tomorrow is the beginning of a new month. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower last night. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

The rally continued today as the Dow gained 575 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher with gusto. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way and that's a plus for the bulls. It has been a very good week for stocks. The S&P is climbing back towards the 50 day moving averge but resistance begins at 4200. There's also the next down trend line and the 50 day at 4275. At the rate we're going you'd expect things to just move past these levels next week though I don't think we are simply heading straight up but I could be wrong. Not sure how much of today is short covering ahead of a long holiday weekend as the markets are closed on Monday. The S&P is not yet short term overbought but it's getting there. Thw weekly indicators have turned up for the S&P. Another week like this and the head and shoulders pattern for the S&P will be negated. Gold was up about ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained steady. Both the XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. Getting to short term overbought for the gold shares but not there yet. Staying patient with regards to trading the GDX again here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed on its 50 day moving average. This area has proven to be resistance for the VIX to move lower for the past month. I get the feeling that it will break lower this time around with just the way the market has all of a sudden lost its sellers. Still above 20 for the VIX and there's other resistance to be found going forward. But we'll let the market tell the story as I don't want to get caught up in trying to be right about the S&P getting down to 3600. It could be that we've seen to low for this down draft and not close at a bear market level for the S&P 500. A similar thing happened at the end of 2018. We'll see. Plenty to ponder over the long weekend. We'll be checking the charts as usual. Europe and Asia finished the week with gains. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Finally some kind of rally is taking place as the Dow gained 517 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way up. A bottom is in place for now. The S&P 500 broke through the first down trend line of resistance. The short term indicators here are moving forward. Other indices have broken through the near term resistance as well. We are making our way back towards the 50 day moving averages for the major stock indexes. The S&P 500 has plenty of resistance at the next down trend line and congestion at around the 4200 level. That's the next stop in my view and we'll see what happens when we get there. It is possible that the down trend in stocks is over but I'm not in that camp. I still think a trip down to the 3600 level for the S&P is what's in store. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares remain stuck below their 200 day moving averages for now. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today but remains above its 50 day. Not yet completely oversold here. The major stock indices have found buyers here and it could last for a while. However if the head and shoulders pattern on the S&P weekly chart is valid, there's more room to go lower as we move out in time. I'm guessing we'll trend higher and sideways for a while until we reach the next resistance. What happens there will be the next key. We did just reach some very oversold conditions that usually mark market bottoms with levels of bearishness at extremes. We'll need some time to work that off before heading down again if my view is correct but of course I could be wrong. The market goes where it wants. Asia was mixed and Europe higher again. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was another day of back and forth as the Dow gained 191 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. The NASDAQ led the way higher. The S&P 500 is now at the first down trend line on the daily chart and the short term indicators are pointing up. Another day like today will get us through that line and that would be the first step to higher prices going forward. I still think that we've got to move back towards the 50 day moving average before we get another leg lower. Or perhaps the decline is over as we don't know what the future holds. But for now we'll see if we can get through this first line of resistance. Gold lost $13 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. They are stuck at their 200 day moving averages. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with a higher market. I get the feeling it will make it past the 50 day moving average this time around. We did recently hit some pretty negative extremes on some of the technical indicators that we follow. So some kind of relief rally is not out of the question and actually overdue. However looking out over the medium term, the measuring objective for the head and shoulders pattern for the S&P 500 on the weekly chart has not been reached yet. We are still looking for 3600 in the months ahead. Patience for now. Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Mixed would be the word to describe todays price action as the Dow gained 48 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ lower. The NASDAQ was the clear under performer. However the major indices finished well above their worst levels of the session. That is part of the subtle change that we are seeing now. Sell offs are not continuing into the close for the moment. Buyers are stepping in. This is different from what we've witnessed for the last couple of months. It's one of the reasons why I think the wholesale selling is done for now. I could be wrong. We haven't made it through the first down trend line for the S&P yet. Gold was up over $15 on the futures today. The US dollar was lower again along with interest rates. The XAU was up two points, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains light here. Both the XAU and GDX are challenging their 200 day moving averages. They've both made it past their short term down trend lines but the volume is lacking. The short term indicators here are almost mid-range. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today but the daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower. I'm thinking that we'll get back to the 50 day moving average and see what happens there. There's still plenty of bears put there for the advance in stocks to continue in my view. I also believe that we'll see a return towards the 50 day moving averages for the major indexes before we think about selling off again. The market is still coming to grips with the reality of lower expectations from companies as we go forward. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The week begins with a rally as the Dow gained 618 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. We got some follow through upside from Fridays late gains. The Dow led the way which isn't the most bullish scenario but we'll take it. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We'll see if we can get through the first down trend line at about 4065 this time around. The S&P needs to head back towards both the 50 and 200 day moving averages and we'll see where we go from there. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar continued lower and interest rates moved up. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. Holding off on any GDX trades for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have turned back down. The VIX appears to be implying higher stock prices in the near term. Can't say that for sure though as it hasn't been able to get back down through its 50 day moving average at 26 lately. We'll see what happens if it gets there. To me it seems that the positive RSI divergences for the major averages will work this time and we'll see higher prices going forward. Not something that turns into a rally back to new highs but something that brings us back to the overhead resistance of which there is plenty. It would also relieve us of some of the extreme bearishness that prevails at the moment. Then perhaps we'll head lower later on as the summer moves on. I'm still looking for at least the 3600 level on the S&P. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to start the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A final hour rally brought the major averages back from the brink as the Dow finished with a gain of 8 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues sideways. The S&P 500 made it down 20% intraday but closed above the bear market level. It remains short term oversold. I still think that we are putting in some kind of bottom here and todays price action reinforces that view. The major averages are too far away from their 50 and 200 day moving averages to stay this low for too long. That doesn't mean that the decline is over but we should see some kind of rally or bounce at least back to one of the down trend lines. We're still looking for the S&P to reach 3600 before thinking about putting longer term money to work. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates a bit lower. The XAU was off 1/2, while GDX lost about a dime. Volume remains light here. Perhaps will attempt the GDX June calls but will need to see a pullback in the gold shares from here to consider it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly on the session but dropped well off of its highs for the day. The short term indicators have made it back to mid-range so you can make a case for either direction here. Looking at the major averages it looks to me like we've put in a short term bottom today with hammers on the daily candlestick charts. The are also some potential positve RSI divergences for some of the indices. So I think that we might see some upside next week. Now if things fall apart on Monday and we close lower than todays low, I'll have to change my view. Way too many bears out there at the moment though. We'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another back and forth session with the winding up with a loss of 237 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. The big caps led the way lower today. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. Considering yesterdays debacle the price action wasn't all that bad today. We also have the gyrations of option expiration to get through. My guess is that we're putting in a short term bottom here. We'll know in the coming days. Gold rallied today as the economic data for housing came in weak. The precious metal futures gained $25. The US dollar was lower and interest rates retreated slightly. The XAU climbed 6 1/2 and GDX added about 1 3/4. Volume was good to the upside and perhaps a bottom is now in place. I did place an open order for the GDX June calls overnight but it wasn't filled. Probably too late here and GDX didn't make it down to the 29 level. There is a down trend line in place for GDX and we haven't made it through there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. The Bollinger bands here are getting closer which implies some kind of big move coming in the VIX. I don't know which way. Interesting times. We'll be moving into the June option cycle next week and premiums will be elevated. On the sidelines for now. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday turns out tomorrow.

Back to the downside today as the major averages got clobbered. The Dow dropped 1164 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways after trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 rolled back over. The S&P did not even make it back to the first down trend line on the daily chart. So much for the positive option expiration week bias. Not sure where we go from here in the short term but the market is coming to grips with what inflation will do to company earnings if it persists. The S&P is still pretty far from both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. This cannot last indefinately. Gold fell five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower on a probable flight to safety. The XAU lost over 3 3/4, while GDX shed about 3/4. Volume remains light here. If GDX makes it down to the 29 level I'll probably try the June calls there. Still short term oversold for GDX and getting there on a medium term basis. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX zoomed higher as it bounced off of its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators turned around as well. Not sure what to expect next here with the VIX. The Dow and the TRAN both closed at a new low for the decline that began back in January. Other indices came close. I don't think that we'll see another day like today for tomorrows market action but who knows? As always, the market goes where it wants. Asia was generally higher and Europe down in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 431 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned back up. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up and are mid-range. The positive expiration week bias seems to be in effect. I'm pretty sure we can say that the decline is over for now. However there is plenty of upside resistance as we make our way higher from here. At some point I'm pretty sure that we'll turn back down to new lows but that could be weeks or a couple of months from now. We'll try and take our cues from the summation index. Gold was flat on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX was flat. Volume remains pretty light for the gold shares as there is no interest after the recent decline. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued down and landed on its 50 day moving average. Not yet short term oversold here. Would like to see it get back to the 20 level in order to purchase some puts. The markets hit negative extremes on numerous indicators recently and it will take some time to work them off. There is a chance that the lows are in for this move down but I don't think so. The easy money is just starting to be pared back. My thinking is that we'll see a lower low sometime in the autumn or sooner and that will be the time to think about putting longer term money to work. I do not have any short term trades in mind right now as we will be moving into the June option cycle next week. We are almost at the first down trend line for the S&P at 4110. We'll see how that goes. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

It was a day of back and forth and the Dow finished with a gain of 26 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is trying to stop its decline. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with both the NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 lower. The S&P remains oversold but not extremely so. Option expiration week and perhaps we'll see the usual positive bias. The S&P 500 now has short, medium and long term down trend lines to get through. Plenty of spots to try the SPY puts if you're inclined. Gold was a bit higher on the futures today. Both the US dollar and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. The gold shares remain short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and has plenty of room to go down as it remains above the 20 level. Ideally we'd like to see it get back to the 200 day moving average and trendline support. That would set us up to try the SPY puts. However the market rarely cooperates. With only 4 days left in the May option cycle I'll most likely stay on the sidelines for now. Perhaps try the GDX June calls but we'll see. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see how thihgs go tomorrow.

We've been looking for some kind of bounce and we saw it today as the Dow gained 466 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but is trying to halt its decline. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. Still short term oversold for the major stock indices. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. However one day does not make a rally. But the extreme oversold conditions that we've seen prevail may finally be coming to an end. They have already lasted longer than usual. That doesn't necessarily mean the decline is completely over but perhaps the selling will halt for now. Gold dropped another $15 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU rose 2 2/3 while GDX was up over 2/3. Volume was a bit above average. The gold shares followed the overall market higher today. I did place an open order for the GDX May calls overnight but canceled it early this morning. Perhaps I'll try the GDX June calls as we move forward. GDX continues to be short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved lower today and the short term technical indicators have moved lower as well. The VIX is sitting on a short term up trend line and if it can break lower from here I'd expect the bounce to continue. My guess is that's what about to happen but I could be wrong. We are overdue for the sellers to take a break though. Option expiration week is upon us. Not sure what to expect this time around. The NASDAQ has been in a bear market and the S&P 500 almost joined it this week. I still think that it is only a matter of time before the S&P gets there. It looks like the weekly S&P 500 chart has a massive head and shoulders top that has been triggered. The measuring objective there would be the 3600 level. That's eventually where I feel this is going. Plenty of charts to go over this weekend. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

More selling today but a last hour bounce limited the damage. The Dow fell 103 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues down. Inflation numbers today were par for the course as the market opened lower then bounced around. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed well off of their lows for the session. They remain short term oversold. We're still blown out on the technical indicators as a decline like this renders them moot. Almost got to the 3840 level on the S&P to confirm bear market territory. Although the 20% threshold is arbitrary in reality. It's plain to see that we're in a down market. I'm expecting some kind of decent bounce before option expiration next Friday. Not sure if I'll be able to figure out the timing. Gold fell $30 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates lower. The XAU dropped over 5 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/2. Volume was good to the downside again. Both indexes closed up from the worst levels of the day. I did put in an order for the GDX June calls but canceled it during the session. GDX remains oversold and staying that way. On the daily chart here the pattern is a possible measured move down. The measuring objective is 29. If it does make it down there, I may try the GDX May calls again for the bounce. Both gold and silver have broken their longer term support on the daily charts. How low they go is now a guessing game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have turned down. Could the VIX be signaling that this part of the decline is coming to an end? Hard to say as I haven't been able to figure things out here for a while. As I've said, the major stcok indices are pretty far from their 50 day moving averages and in the past that has led to at least some kind of bounce. The question is when and I would not be surprised to see a decent bounce before expiration. Europe and Asia were down overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Once again the market tried to rally today but failed. The Dow lost 326 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. The inflation data came in a little worse than expected but the market moved higher. However that didn't last and we finished on the lows of the session. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down and that's a negative. Indicators are blown out to the downside and remain that way. Oversold for weeks on the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500. Almost to the 20% down bear market threshold for the S&P. Option premiums remain high for the SPY. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was steady and interest rates slipped. The XAU was off 1/3, while GDX was flat. Volume was a little above average. The gold shares followed the market as they rallied early and then gave it all back. I dumped the GDX May calls that I had for a 70% loss. I had a chance to take the acceptable 50% loss but didn't. This was a trade that never had a chance as it did not show a profit the entire time that I held it. I'd still like to try the gold share calls again but will go out to the June contract if I do. However the market just keeps dropping with no stabaization in sight. Gold itself is not providing the usual safe haven. Interesting times. Mentally I'm disappointed in the latest trade as I did not follow the guidelines to stay away from a big loss. Discipline is one of the keys to the game and if you can't do that you don't have a chance. The VIX was lower today and that market dropped. That doesn't fit. The VIX remains overbought in the short term. Not sure where it is going from here. We'll get more inflation data tomorrow and the odds are it won't be good. We'll see how the market reacts. Seven days to go in the May option cycle. I'll look at things tonight and decide if I want to place another order in GDX. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. Tomorrows another day.

Back and forth was the theme of the day as the Dow fell 85 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted gains on the day though. The S&P remains oversold as do all of the major stock indices. We'll get inflation data tomorrow and see what happens. The averages are pretty far from their 50 day moving averages on a daily basis so some kind of short covering bounce would not be a surprise. Gold lost support at $1850 as it dropped $15. The US dollar was slightly higher while interest rates were steady. The XAU fell 1 1/2 and GDX lost 1/2. Volume was average. GDX blew through my stop without getting filled. I decided to hang on to it this time around but the loss will be larger than it should be like the last trade that didn't get filled unless we see some kind of quick turnaround in the gold shares. Doubt it. Support has been broken and gold is dropping like a stone. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and remains overbought. Not sure which way it'll go tomorrow but with the inflation data due out I'd expect volatility to pick up early. We'll have to wait and see. Europe was up last night while Asia was lower with the exception of China. We'll see how things go on Wednesday.

Look out below as the market continues to fall apart. The Dow fell 653 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 7 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. The final area of support for the major indices gave way and we'll just have to wait and see where support now shows up. The NASDAQ was once again the leader to the downside. Oversold and staying that way for the S&P 500. The 20% lower bear market there is at around 3840. At this point that seems like only a matter of time. The smaller stock indexes have already lost over 20%. Blown out to the downside on many of the indicators and at areas that usually lead to at least bounces if not rallies themselves. But there are no buyers. Inflation data due out on Wednesday and Thursday. Hold on to your seats. Gold got slammed again and the futures dropped thirty bucks. We're at the the support of $1850. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU fell 8 1/2, while GDX sled 2 points. Volume was good to the downside. I did try the GDX May calls again and the order was filled. It's showing a loss already and if the gold shares continue lower with the market this trade will get stopped out tomorrow. I'm considering going out to the June contract for GDX if this trade doesn't work. Silver is at the last area of support and closed below $22. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed higher again and remains short term overbought. It almost closed above the 35 level. Interesting to say the least. There's no reason it can't go higher but stocks are very oversold. Perhaps we'll get some kind of capitulation wash out this week. That's simply a guess because the fundamentals for owning stocks right now are negative. That said, the selling won't go on forever. Below the zero line on the summation index and moving lower. Not often seen but that is what's happening now. Europe and Asia were down as it's a worldwide sell off. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

It was a day of hanging around as we opened lower and stayed that was for much of the session. The Dow fell 98 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way down but the market did finish up from the worst levels of the day. The employment data came in about where expected. At least the market didn't fall off a cliff like yesterday but it's hard to say where we go from here. The S&P did hold on its recent lows but other indexes did not. The S&P 500 is still short term oversold. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates slightly higher. The XAU lost 2 points while GDX shed 1/3 or so. Volume was lighter here. I did place another order for the GDX May calls but it wasn't filled. I'll reconsider this idea over the weekend. Gold up and the gold shares down again doesn't inspire confidence in the calls. However the gold shares are being dragged lower by the overall market. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked above 35 early and then turned around to finish lower on the day. It looks like it wants to continue downwards but as we've seen lately anything goes. Not getting a good feel for where the VIX is going. The overall stock market has been oversold for a few weeks now and I'm not sure this will continue except that we're in a down market. We get some good one day rallies but then the sellers return. There is still two weeks left in the May option cycle so there's certainly time remaining for a decent trade. I'll be looking for something over the weekend. We'll be getting some inflation data next week and that is sure to be a market mover. For now we'll look ahead to checking the charts on Saturday and Sunday to come up with some new ideas. Europe and Asia were both lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market got pummeled today as the Dow fell 1063 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative. The summation index has turned back down. The selling was relentless but the market did finish off of the lows. The NASDAQ led the way lower and dropped 5%. Not sure what to make of what's going on here. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back down. I don't know what to expect tomorrow. We haven't taken out the lows of Monday yet but a repeat of today would do it. A very volatile and unstable atmosphere at the moment. Gold was actually up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was back up and interest rates were higher as well. The gold shares followed the market lower as the XAU lost 5 1/2 while GDX shed 1 1/8. Volume was good on the way down. I did place an order for some GDX May calls again but it wasn't filled and I canceled it. I might try this again tomorrow if we see follow through selling in the markets. However there is also the option of simply heading to the sidelines as the volatility has really ramped up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX has bounced off of its 50 day moving average and was up 6 points and now is back over the 30 level. The short term indicators are pointing back up as the volatility takes over again. Up 900 one day, down a thousand the next is a tough market to make out. However we are below the zero line in the summation index and that remains a pretty big negative. We've got the jobs report tomorrow and it's anybodies guess what the market will do after that. I'll go over the charts tonight and decide if I want to make a trade tomorrow and hold it over the weekend. Europe was lower last night with Asia mixed and still with some markets closed there. We'll close out a crazy week tomorrow.

A huge move higher today as the Dow jumped 932 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. Rates rose as expected from the Fed. Later the Fed chair jawboned the markets higher with his comments. Truth be told the market was so bearish it only had one way to go. Short covering today again to be sure. However rallies that spring out of nowhere are bear market characteristics, even if the S&P 500 hasn't reached that stage yet. Some of our technical indicators were at bear market extreme levels so moving higher is not a surprise. Maybe we can make it back up to one of the down trend lines for the S&P and then try the SPY puts before the May option cycle ends. The short term indicators for the S&P have now turned back up. The NASDAQ barely led the way higher today but it's still a plus. We'll remain patient for now. Gold advanced $14 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained almost 3 points, while GDX was up over 2/3. Volume was good. I canceled my open order for the GDX May calls as I've missed this opportunity for now. The short term indicators for GDX have also turned back up. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as I took the loss on the GDX call trade Monday when it blew through my stop limit order, while at the same time I had another buy order for the GDX calls that wasn't filled even though it hit the trade price. Needless to say that trade would have already more than doubled. But we're at the mercy of the computers now in the game and sometimes things just don't work out. The VIX dropped today and it's looking like we're heading back down to the support line for this indicator. That would coincide with a rally in stocks. Ideally we'd get to the support line for the VIX at the same time we reach the down trend resistance line for the S&P. That would be the set up for the SPY puts. The markets rarely cooperate. Next up is Fridays employment report. Europe and Asia were lower, with parts of Asia still on holiday. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Waiting on the Fed as the Dow was up 67 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The S&P 500 led the way today but is still short term oversold. Not sure what the reaction will be tomorrow as it is already a foregone conclusion that rates will go up 1/2 a point. We'll just wait and see what the market has in store for us. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a touch lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares have out performed the precious metal for the past couple of sessions. GDX is still short term oversold. I did place another order for the GDX May calls and I'm leaving it out there. My hope is we get some selling after the Fed and the order gets filled. My feeling is that the decline in the gold shares is over. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and the short term indicators have rolled over. It appears to be saying that higher stock prices are on the way. Some of our indicators for the market are so blown out to the downside that a rally here would be no surprise. However it must also be said that in down markets things stay oversold longer than you think. I guess we'll see what the market reaction to the Fed is tomorrow and go from there. What was open in Asia was mixed, while Europe was higher. It's a waiting game for now.

Buyers showed up today in the final hour and the Dow rose 84 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading lower. We were down for much of the session until the last hour reprieve. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The S&P 500 is hanging in there after breaking support. It remains short term oversold. We are overdue for something more than just a bounce. The bearishness is so thick you can cut it with a knife. Perhaps we'll get some kind of relief rally after the Fed on Wednesday. Most of the techncial indicators for the overall market are blown out to the downside. This condition cannot continue indefinately. Option premiums for the SPY remain overpriced due to the volatility. Gold got smashed today as the futures dropped about fifty bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off 2 1/8, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was good. The gold shares did finish up from their lows of the session and held up rather well considering the drop in gold itself. The early drop in GDX blew through my stop limit loss order so I simply bailed out at the market. This caused the loss to be more than the limit price as the trade lost 75%. Not a lot of money involved here but the percentage loss was more than the acceptable limit. But that can happen in fast markets. I did place another order for the GDX calls at a lower strike price but canceled it a few hours later. I'm debating whether I want to try this again or not. Oversold to be sure for the gold shares but gold is down to the support at around $1850 and buyers have disappeared. Silver bounced near the support at $22 today. I'll consider what to do overnight. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX reversed lower today and perhaps is signaling that the decline is over. Perhaps being the key word there. Still short term overbought for the VIX but it is up in the area where it has turned back down recently. Everybody knows the Fed is raising rates on Wednesday so maybe it is already in the markets and the selling will subside. There's still plenty of time left in the May option cycle. Asia had a partial holiday for May day but what was open was lower along with Europe with the exception of the FTSE. We'll see how things go tomorrow.