More gains for the last trading day in January as the Dow climbed 406 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving down but is trying to turn back up here. It most likely will be successful. The decline has ended for now and has the possibility of being the low for the year. But probably not as there is still most of 2022 left. The NASDAQ led the way with a sharp gain and that's a positive. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up and are at mid-range. I'm sure we'll see some selling in the coming days but the 4200 level should hold for now on the S&P. The worst of the selling is over as we reached some extreme oversold levels for stocks. Again, that doesn't mean that we'll move straight up to new all time highs. Most likely sideways until the next leg either way is the likely scenario. If we get to short term overbought for the S&P, I'll be tempted to try the SPY February puts. Gold bounced back today as the futures rose a dozen. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU gained almost 4, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was lighter than its been but not bad. I did have an order in for the GDX February calls but it wasn't filled and I canceled it. This looks like another missed trade but we'll have to see how the rest of the week goes. If we see some weakness in the coming sessions for the gold shares I'll give this trade a try. Might simply be wishful thinking on my part though as we are moving up from short term oversold on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is moving lower and still implies more rally to come in the near term. We're still above the 50 day moving average here and well above the 20 level. The short term indicators for the VIX are moving down and are at mid-range. More positive action for stocks seems to be in the cards according to the VIX and that would fit with the summation index turning back up from a very low and negative reading. As we move forward the market action should tell us whether what we just witnessed was simply a correction or the beginning of a bear market. We'll know as time goes on. Europe was higher along with what was open in Asia overnight. Some Asian markets are closed for the Chinese new year. We'll keep an eye on the evenings headlines.

Finally we got a day where a bounce held as the Dow gained 564 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. We were higher for much of the session but then price exploded to the upside in the final hour and a half. Some of it short covering to be sure. Apple earnings appeared to be the catalyst as perhaps things aren't so bad after all. But let's face it. The extreme oversold condition of the market was not going to last forever. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a plus. The summation index is negative which rarely happens and it will have to move back up. However I don't think that we are heading to new all time highs anytime soon. An overdue bounce is what we got today and we'll see how things go next week. The bulk of the selling for this move down is probably over. Gold was down a few bucks today but did come up from the lows of the session. The US dollar finished little changed while interest rates dropped slightly. The XAU fell a point, while GDX was off around 1/3. Volume was average. The gold shares came off of their lows as well. I did put in an order for the GDX February calls but wasn't filled. Short term oversold for GDX now so I'm willing to try the calls again here. Most likely will put in another order in the beginning of next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today as it is heading back towards its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here have rolled over and implies that we'll see more price gains and less volatility moving forward. The weekly picture looks like it has put in an evening star on the candlestick chart which would fit with the short term indicators. I would be surprised to see the VIX finish next week higher but we'll have to wait and see. As of right now it appears that the S&P 500 isn't going to retest Mondays lows and the fifth wave down I was expecting isn't going to happen. But one day doesn't make a rally and in down trends it isn't unusual for a day like today to spring out of nowhere. We'll know more by the end of next week. Plenty of work to do over the weekend going over the charts. Europe was lower and Asia mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Try and try again to bounce but I guess not yet as the Dow fell 7 points on the now normal heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. GDP came in better than expected. An early rally for the S&P 500 turned around and then into a loss for the session. It's a one day reversal to the downside. Still short and medium term oversold and staying that way. This is a rare condition but so is crossing the zero line on the summation index. So the usual market behavior doesn't apply. This too shall pass and we'll see a rally of some sorts sooner or later. The options premiums for the SPY are so inflated now that it just doesn't make sense to try and trade there at the moment. Gold got clobbered again as the futures lost another $30 to close below $1800. The US dollar was up and interest rates slipped a bit on a flight to safety. The XAU fell 3 2/3, while GDX lost almost a point. Volume was good again to the downside. Another down day here will get us to short term oversold for the gold shares. The fundamentals here are not good as a rising dollar along with higher interest rates coming puts a lid on any upside for gold. What used to be the normal buy gold when inflation shows up hasn't worked yet this time around. That said, if the market keeps dropping and the gold shares go with it I'll probably try the GDX February calls again at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with a market that fell. That doesn't fit the usual relationship. The NASDAQ led things lower again today and that's not a plus. The move lower for the S&P that began at the beginning of the month is taking the shape of a five wave down scenario. It appears that all there is left to do is take the fifth and final wave lower. If that occurs we'll head back to the 4200 level on the S&P or maybe a bit lower. That would also complete the retest of Mondays lows. That's my prognosis for where we'll be going in the next few days. However we are strongly way overdue for at least an upside day. That could happen first. Europe was higher and Asia lower last night. Some inflation data due out here tomorrow morning. We'll close out a wild week on Wall street tomorrow.

Another day of bouncing around with the Fed as the Dow fell 129 points on the continued above average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. Nothing unexpected or earth shattering from the Fed but we did sell off from nice early gains when chairman Powell spoke to the press. It wasn't the worst of times as the NASDAQ eeked out a small gain. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold but I do think that at least a temporary bottom was put in place on Monday. We've made it through the zero line on the summation index so perhaps the worst is behind us. But we don't exactly know that for sure just yet. We have bounced from Mondays lows but a retest may be in order. Being nimble is key here but I do not expect any kind of sustained rally that would take us back up to where the decline began. I could be wrong. Gold got clobbered as higher interest rates dampen the appeal for the precious metal. The gold futures shed $35. Interest rates went higher along with the US dollar. The XAU lost 4 points while GDX dropped a buck. Volume was good to the downside. I do still like the GDX calls going forward but will wait for them to get short term oversold. Might take a few more days of downside. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX perked up today and remains short term overbought. It is certainly out of the ordinary for the VIX to remain overbought for an extended period of time. That is why there is still a chance that we could see another swift drop for stocks in the near future. Combined with the weakness in the summation index, the market is not out of the woods yet. Stocks also remain oversold on a short and medium term basis but haven't been able to have even a sustained bounce for a session. So caution is still advised. We'll get a look at 4th quarter GDP tomorrow and some wage inflation data on Friday. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

We bounced around today after yesterdays wild ride and the Dow ended with a loss of 66 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. Waiting to hear from the Fed tomorrow. I still think that a short term bottom is in place as the S&P 500 remains short term oversold. My guess is that we will rally tomorrow no matter what the Fed says because of the oversold nature of things both short and medium term for the market. But we are heading through the zero line on the summation index and falling apart is the prognosis. The early thousand point drop yesterday confirms it. So rather than guess as to what is about to occur I'll be on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold contiued to rise as the futures gained around $7 and touched the $1850 level. The US dollar finished little changed after being higher early on. Interest rates rose. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX added almost 1/4. Volume was average. The GDX call trade that I was stopped out on yesterday has made it back to break even. That is one of the problems using stops. You can be knocked out of the trade before it has a chance to work. On the flip side if you don't use stops it can end up causing you to lose more money by holding on to a position that never comes back. As was the case with the previous GDX trade at the end of last year. My goal for this year is to not take any huge losses so I guess I'll simply be at the mercy of the stops. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and is back above 30. Still overbought as well. What I'm getting from this is simply to expect more volatility. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out. Option premiums are elevated and staying in cash for now isn't the worst thing to do. Except you won't make any money that way but you won't lose any either. Europe was higher and Asia lower in last nights trade. We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow and the markets reaction to it.

Just another manic Monday as the song goes. In what was one of the crazier days on Wall street, the Dow gained 99 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. It was a one day reversal to the upside as we opened lower and closed higher. A temporary bottom is now in place. At one point the Dow was down over a thousand points. To make all of that back and then some is incredible. Volatility went off the charts. The kind of reversal that we saw today usually means that the decline is over for now. We may come back and test todays low at some point in the future. We saw high volume panic selling today and that marks the end of going lower than todays low of around 4200 for the S&P in the near term. We are still short term oversold here but the indicators have turned back up with todays price action. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates slightly higher as well after dropping early on during the market sell off. The XAU fell 1 1/2 and GDX lost 1/4 on good volume. The gold shares were down much more early along with the stock market. I was stopped out of my GDX February call position for a 40% loss. I tried to purchase these calls again at a better strike price but wasn't filled. Frustrating to say the least. GDX looks like it's put in a short term bottom here as well. I suppose that I'll wait for the Fed announcement on Wednesday before deciding where to go from here regarding the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX surged past 38 and then came all the way back to close below 30. The short term indicators here have rolled over to relieve the overbought condition. It should mean that volatility will subside but who knows? The VIX has gotten pretty far from its 50 day moving average and should at least try to head back towards it. Today we got extremely oversold during the session and the bounce back that we saw was huge. We will say that the decline is over for now. Once again 4200 should hold on the S&P 500 in the days to come. Longer term, maybe not. Such crazy volatility has increased the option premiums all the way around. I'm back on the sidelines but will be looking for the next trade opportunity. Europe was lower and Asia mixed to begin the trading week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Down we go as the decline continues. The Dow fell 450 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower and we are falling apart approaching the zero line. It doesn't appear that it will hold things up this time around. The NASDAQ is still leading the way lower and that's a negative. The S&P 500 is short term oversold, staying that way and just closed below its 200 day moving average. We should have at least seen a bounce at some point this week but it didn't happen. Getting ugly and even if we see a bounce it probably won't hold. Rolling now into the February option cycle. Gold fell over ten bucks today. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates fell on a flight to safety. The XAU dropped almost 4 points, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume was good to the downside. My open order for the GDX February calls was filled and it's already a loser. Plenty of time for this trade but with the market in what looks to be freefall, the gold shares are going along for the ride. The stop loss order is in though and another day like today will get me out. Perhaps staying on the sidelines for now is the proper course of conduct. But we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up and is almost at 30. Remaining short term overbought on the indicators. Usually the VIX doesn't stay overbought for long but it seems right now is not a usual time. Buyers have vanished. We've got the Fed next week and perhaps they'll calm the markets. Or not. Going through the zero line on the summation index to the downside is a rare event but always interesting to say the least. We're getting close to being down 10% for the S&P and perhaps that will put a temporary hold on the selling. But that's just a guess. The trend is down. Plenty to ponder over the weekend to try and figure out what to do next week. Europe and Asia sank overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market tried to bounce today and was up over 400 points in the morning. But the rally didn't hold and we fell apart in the final couple of hours. The Dow fell 313 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way down and that continues to be a negative. The S&P 500 is short term oversold and staying there. The next support is the 200 day moving average at around 4425. More concerning is the summation index moving lower and heading towards the zero line again. The zero line has held up recently but that won't happen every time. If we fall through there things will get ugly in a hurry and the market will simply fall apart. The way it is acting seems to be saying that will be the case. Oversold and staying there is a recipe for disastor. We'll see. Gold was off just a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX was down almost 1/2. Volume was good. My order is still out there for the GDX February calls. The problem here is that if the market collapses it will take the gold shares with it. I'll have to reassess this idea tonight. I do still think that the flight to safety trade holds water. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower early but then shot up past 25 to close the day. Short term overbought here and that condition usually doesn't last long for the VIX. Unfortuantely the way the market is acting at the moment isn't the usual conventional way. Sellers are overwhelming the buyers. The tone has changed and we have to change with it. Expiration Friday and what happens is up in the air. Interesting times. The small shares have broken down and it appears that the rest of the market is on its way. Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade. We'll see how expiration Friday goes.

Continuing lower as the Dow tried to hold on today only to drop by 339 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. We did see some buying today but in the final hour sellers arrived and took control. The NASDAQ still remains the downside leader. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold. I'd expect at least some kind of bounce before the end of the week. However with the summation index moving down the path of least resistance is lower. Rallies can be sold as the easy money is in the process of being removed. Unfortunately the odds now increase that things will get ugly. Hopefully we'll get a chance at the SPY February puts in the weeks to come. Gold took off to the upside today as the safe haven play is back. The gold futures jumped $30. Bot the US dollar and interest rates were a bit lower. The gold shares exploded to the upside. The XAU gained 9 1/3, while GDX rose 2 1/4. Volume was very heavy which confirms that this move is for real. I canceled the open order that I had for the GDX February calls and replaced it with another one in hopes of eventually getting filled. GDX is short term overbought but I believe this is a move worth chasing. I am definately late though. I do think that trying the February calls here is worth the risk. The markets are in the process of change and I think that gold will stand to benefit at least in the short term. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved higher and is short term overbought. It usually doesn't stay that way for long so I'm expecting some kind of upside for the market before the end of this week. Not the beginning of a rally mind you, just something to relieve the selling pressure. Make no mistake, the trend is now down until further notice. Europe had a slight gain and Asia was lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the evenings developments.

A decidedly down day to start the week as the Dow fell 543 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. The NASDAQ again led the way south and that is not a good sign. The S&P 500 has just moved into short term oversold territory. The market is adjusting to the fact that there will be less liquidity. In other words there won't be as much money sloshing around to chase stocks. How long the selling lasts is anyones guess but the weekly indicators are not yet oversold. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures but held up rather well despite the negative backdrop. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off about 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light as it has been to the downside in the past 3 days here. I did place an open order for the GDX February calls although GDX is not yet short term oversold. Silver had an impressive day to the upside and gold did not drop much as it appears the safe haven factor may be coming into play. It will take more of a drop in GDX to get this order filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped above the 20 level today and the indicators are heading north. We are touching the upper Bollinger band here so perhaps things will turn around tomorrow. Or not. Support for many of the smaller stock indexes has been broken, with a trip to the 200 day moving averages in range. It is expiration week though and I would expect to see buying at some point. But it appears that the tide has turned for equities and rallies will be sold. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of China. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A mixed bag for sure today as the Dow fell 202 points to close out the week. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still drifting higher. The Dow did come up from the lows of the session as it was down 450 at one stage of the day. Retail sales were weaker than expected and that was one excuse for the decline. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted gains for the day. The S&P had a one day reversal to the upside as it opened lower and closed higher. It is doing its best to try and hang on here but it's now down below the 50 day moving average. We also have tops beneath tops on the daily chart here which has a down trend line in place. Perhaps if we make it back to that line we can try the SPY puts. Or maybe the line will be taken out and we'll head for new all time highs. I'm more of a believer of the former. Gold was off 5 bucks today. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. None of that fits with a weaker retail sales numbers but the market goes where it wants. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was light again to the downside. I am trying to remain patient here but I would certainly like to try the GDX February calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX reversed back lower today and closed below the 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are mid-range. Not getting a good idea of what this indicator is trying to tell us now. Maybe we'll see the usual expiration week upside bias coming up. I certainly don't know and will remain on the sidelines most likely. It's a long holiday weekend on tap with plenty of work to do regarding what's going on here. I'll be going over the charts as usual to try and come up with some kind of game plan going forward. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It appears that the bounce is complete as the Dow fell 176 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 176 market would suggest. The summation index is drifting higher. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. That's not a positive. It looks like the S&P 500 is on its way to test last weeks lows as most of the short term technical indicators have rolled over. It is probably too late to buy the SPY January puts. Could things turn around tomorrow? It's possible but we'll need some kind of excuse to be buyers ahead of the long weekend. Gold dropped five bucks but did come up from its lows. The US dollar was a bit lower as were interest rates. The XAU fell 1 7/8, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was light. I'm back to looking at the GDX February calls but in no hurry. The Bollinger bands are starting to contract in the precious metals complex, implying that a big move is on the way. Which way is the question but I'm leaning to the long side. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked higher and closed above its 50 and 200 day averages. It also finished above the 20 level. The short term indicators have turned up with room to go higher. This indicator is now saying volatilty is on the rise and prices are in decline. It fit the bill today. With only 5 days left in the January option cycle, the risk is high to take on a SPY trade. I'm pretty sure that I'll let tomorrow pass and take it from there. That seems to be the prudent path for me at the moment. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll finish up the trading week tomorrow.

The market continues to trudge higher as the Dow gained 38 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is turning back up. The inflation data came in high as expected but did not cause any widespread selling. If we stay higher into Friday, I may try the SPY January puts. However the short term technical indicators for the S&P are mid-range. So that may not be the best idea. But if we do make it back to short term overbought on one of my indicators I'll probably do the trade. Gold continued higher today as the futures rose eight bucks. The US dollar dropped and interest rates were steady. The XAU gained 2 2/3, while GDX added over 1/2. Volume was average again. I canceled my open order for the GDX February calls as this trade was missed. The sharp rise in the gold shares this week makes me believe that this move up is for real. I'll be looking to attempt the GDX calls on any weakness but the ideal time to try this trade has passed. I was early on my attempt here with the last losing GDX trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower, remains short term oversold but not extremely so. Not really getting a good signal one way or the other from here. My thinking is that the 3 day rally that we've seen in stocks could stall here. We'll get more inflation data out tomorrow and retail sales on Friday. We also have a holiday weekend comng up in the US. I'll remain on the sidelines for now and wait to see how we go for the rest of the week. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Bouncing higher today as the Dow gained 183 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are turning back up. Are we heading to new all time highs again? Perhaps but I'm in a wait and see mode for now. We'll get inflation data out tomorrow and the market reaction to that will tell us a lot. Gold rallied today as the futures were up $20. The US dollar along with interest rates went down. The XAU was up 1 2/3, while GDX gained almost 2/3. Volume was average. It appears that I've missed the uptrend here for the gold shares as the indicators have turned around and are heading higher. My order for the February calls is still out there but I'll probably end up canceling it. Might try the January calls again for a short term trade if we get a near term pullback. I'm not a fan of missing moves but what can you do? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and it looks like it has room to go lower. It isn't short term oversold yet. If the market rallies tomorrow despite higher inflation and the VIX continues to go down I'll have to change my market outlook. It is never easy trying to interpret exactly what is going to happen. Running out of time in the January option cycle. Perhaps the sidelines remains the place to be for now. Europe was higher and Asia generally lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Coming back from the brink today as the Dow fell 163 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. Off almost 600 points early on the markets made steady progress to the upside for the rest of the session. The NASDAQ was off 400 and made it back to positive territory. It appears that a temporary bottom has been put in place today. The market needs a break from the selling and we should see that at least for the beginning of this week. Inflation data due out on Wednesday and Thursday. Gold was up a few bucks today. The US dollar was slightly higher while interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 2 points, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was average. I did place an open order for some GDX February calls but it will take a drop to 29 to get the order filled. That may not occur as it appears that the gold shares are ready to reverse right here. But we'll see how the rest of the week plays out. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a spike up only to reverse and finish the day below the important level of 20. That's another reason why it isn't out the question to see the market stage some kind of rally from here. The NASDAQ held its 200 day moving average and the Russell 2000 held its long term support. So it appears that at least a temporay bottom is in place. I'm looking for some kind of bounce and it looks like it started today. I'm expecting higher prices tomorrow. The McClellan oscillator gave a signal for a big move on Friday and today probably fills the bill although it doesn't look that way on a closing basis. Volatility has picked up. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower to begin the week. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

The selling continues but the Dow only lost 4 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving sideways. Once again the NASDAQ led the way lower and that is a negative. The payroll numbers were mixed with job creation coming in lower than expected. The S&P 500 still managed to close above its 50 day moving average. I'm expecting some kind of bounce here in the next day or two. Whether or not it turns into the next leg up remains to be seen. The short term indicators here are now mid-range. Gold was up five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates continued their climb. The XAU gained a point, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was average. GDX is still not completely oversold. If it drops another point to 29, I'll try the February calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was back down today despite the drop in prices. Not exactly sure what that means. The short term indicators are rolling back over. Perhaps we are setting up for the bounce and then we'll see what happens. The NASDAQ is at its near term support and is getting short term oversold. Other stock indices have held up better but the NASDAQ is generally the leader both up and down. If it would continue to drop from here it would spell trouble. We also are not seeing the usual beginning of the year rally. It's a time for caution in my view as the weak beginning to the new year along with the rise in interest rates are not positive events. We'll be going over the charts as usual this weekend to try and develop some type of game plan for the remaining January option cycle. There will be less than 2 weeks remaining due to a holiday on the 17th. Europe was generally lower with Asia mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow led the way lower today as it dropped 171 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive though. The summation index is starting to move sideways. The overall market did not drop as much as the Dow. The S&P 500 held up at its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators still have room to fall but they could just as easily turn around after todays price action. We'll see how things react to the jobs report and take it from there. The gold futures lost another $10 today. Rates were steady and the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU fell 4 1/4, while GDX lost over a point. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators here are on their way to becoming oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and remains below the 20 level. I get the feeling that things could go either way with the VIX from here. The fact that the market did not sell off again today makes me think that tomorrow could be a positive session for stocks. However I do not have a decent signal to trade the SPY options so I will therefore be sitting things out for now. Still a couple of weeks to go in the January option cycle. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. All eyes on the employment report tomorrow to finish off the first week of the new year.

A bout of selling today as the market did not like the tone from the Fed minutes. We had a nasty sell off with two hours to go today as the Dow fell 392 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative. The NASDAQ got clobbered by over 3% and led the way lower. I had expected prices to continue to rise and that scenario is now in question. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over and imply that there is more selling to go. We just hit a new all time high so I don't think a protracted decline is on tap but what do I know? We'll see if we get any follow through the rest of the week or if this is just a one day wonder. Gold was up early but gave back all the gains and finished about $5 lower on the session. The US dollar was slightly lower but interest rates continued to rise. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume picked up to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over as well. I sold my position in the January GDX calls for a 90% loss. This trade was a loser from the beginning and should have been sold long ago. I also threw good money after bad and that is a cardinal sin in trading. I got what I deserved I suppose but it isn't how I wanted to start the new year. However like any other trade, win or lose it doesn't matter now and you have to move on. If GDX gets back below 29 I might try the calls again. Mentally I'm feeling a bit disappointed as losing trades do nothing to help in the confidence department. Moving forward is what's up next. The VIX climbed today with the rout and that makes perfect sense. This indicator had been extremely oversold for so long there was only one way to go but you could not tell when it would occur. The indicators here have now turned back up with plenty of room to go. The VIX closed above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Didn't close above 20 though but another day like to day will do it. I suppose I'll wait for the reaction to Fridays jobs report and take it from there. We'll see if we get any overseas selling tonight. Europe was higher and Asia mixed in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

It was a mixed bag today on Wall street but the Dow managed to continue to climb. The most watched index added 214 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues higher. The S&P 500 finished almost unchanged, remaining short term overbought. The NASDAQ fell over 200 points. it wasn't the broad based rally that I was expecting to begin the new year. Not sure what to expect from here but the rest of the week should be interesting. Jobs report due out on Friday. Gold bounced back as the futures were up $15. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares remain short term overbought and the slight increase today despite a decent gain in gold itself is a negative. I should have sold the GDX January calls that I still hold a long time ago. It may be preventing me from moving on to the next trade with my focus on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only slightly higher today and remains extremely oversold. Not getting any signal one way or the other from here. When in doubt, stay out might apply for the time being. We'll have to wait for a decent signal in the SPY for the next trade there. Still plenty of time left in the January option cycle. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The New Year begins with a nice move to the upside as the Dow gained 246 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The Dow closed at a new all time high. Other indices to follow as the week rolls on. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high as well. Still short term overbought here and staying that way. That is a recipe for a rally and today probably starts the next leg up. The signal from the McClellan oscillator came through this time around. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. Money still needs a home and is finding one with stocks. Gold got clobbered to begin the new year as the futures dropped about thirty bucks. The US dollar soared along with interest rates. These are tow of the reasons for the drop in the precious metal today. Gold did manage to hang on to the $1800 level for now. The XAU shed 2 3/4, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was light. My GDX January calls most likely don't have even a chance of getting back to break even. I'll be selling them this week unless we see some kind of dramatic turnaround before the end of the week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and remains extremely oversold. This too is a condition that supports the rally in stocks. The VIX has been oversold since the beginning of December. Not sure how much longer it can go. Well below the 20 level here and beneath both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Some foreign markets were closed for holiday today so price action around the world was muted. Europe was generally higher and Asia mixed. We'll look for some upside follow through tomorrow.