Friday, December 31, 2021
Another last hour bout of selling took the Dow lower again today. The most watched index lost 60 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive again despite the loss. The summation index is moving up. The major averages were all slightly lower despite but the TRAN posted a gain. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. We got another signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move, the second signal in the past two days. Expect a big move when things get back to normal early next week. My guess is that we'll see a huge rally on Monday. Gold continued to climb adding another $15. The US dollar was lower while interest rates held steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. GDX also remains short term overbought. My GDX January calls are still solid losers heading into the new year. Just trying to cut the loss at this point with three weeks left in the January option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower and still very oversold. This will not last forever. Not sure what to make of it. As this year draws to a close a look back at the 2021 trading year shows nothing but red ink. I had many more losing trades than normal, with hardly any winners. It was a year to forget. We'll continue to put in the effort and do the work to make 2022 successful. Europe and Asia finished mixed on the last day of trading for 2021. We'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Happy New Year!
Thursday, December 30, 2021
The Dow had a one day reversal to the downside as it opened higher and closed lower. Last hour selling sent the Dow to a loss of 90 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive though. The summation index is moving up. The McClellan oscillator gave a signal last night for a big move within the next two sessions. We'll see how things go tomorrow to close out 2021. All of the major indices were losers but not with any conviction. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. The market is simply making its way to the new year. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was up a bit and interest rates declined. The XAU gained 2 points, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was light. I've decided to hold on to the losing GDX January call trade into the new year. Hoping to cut the loss with three weeks remaining in the January option cycle. Short term overbought for GDX and staying that way which could mean the rally will continue here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today thanks to the final hour decline. It remains very oversold. One trading day left in the year and it should be slow. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll close out 2021 tomorrow.
Wednesday, December 29, 2021
It seems as though the market is just hanging around waiting for the new year to begin. The Dow gained 90 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought with prices stalling for the past two sessions. The NASDAQ was slightly lower today. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold dropped $5 on the futures but were lower than that during the session.. The US dollar was lower and interest rates moved higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. Still no interest in the gold shares and they remain short term overbought. I continue to hold out hope that the gold shares will have their usual rally that comes this time of the year but it hasn't happened yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and remains extremely short term oversold. This has lasted longer than it should but the markets as usual go where they want. I'm not sure what to make of it. Just two trading days left in 2021 and I'm sure most of the serious business has been completed. Waiting on 2022 at this point. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
Tuesday, December 28, 2021
A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 95 points light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving up. Both the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ were lower on the session. The S&P remains short term overbought. It's a holiday week and many of the players are at home. I do trust that this rally is for real though and I think it has legs to go higher into the beginning of next year. After that, who knows. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures today. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates were little changed again. The XAU and GDX both had fractional losses today on light volume. They remain short term overbought and they both failed at their 50 day moving averages. There remains little interest in the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower yet again today and remains extremely oversold. Not sure how much to read into this with the major players on hiatus. Money still needs a home and stocks seem to be the place to go for now. No SPY trades in mind for this week but there is plenty of time to go in the January option cycle. Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
Monday, December 27, 2021
Up, up and away we go as the Dow climbed 351 points on holiday week light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. New all time highs again for the S&P 500. It remains short term overbought with no overhead resistance. Other indexes should follow to new highs as the days move ahead. Declines may be bought for now. Gold finished slightly lower. Both interest rates and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX were little changed as well on anemic volume. This could turn out to be a slow week for the gold shares ahead of the new year. That's a guess as usual. Still deciding whether or not to take the loss in the current GDX trade. Short term overbought for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and has gotten very oversold on the short term technical indicators. This cannot last forever. It doesn't mean that a lasting decline will follow but we cannot go straight up forever either. For now the Santa Claus/Year end rally is in force. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
Thursday, December 23, 2021
Santa Claus has come to town as the Dow added another 196 points today. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive and the volume was light. The summation index is now moving up. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high. I expect that other indices will follow. Overbought and staying that way for the S&P. No overhead resistance so we'll see how far we can go before the end of the year. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was up a point, while GDX rose 1/8. Volume remains light here. Short term overbought for the gold shares. I'll have to decide next week whether to book the loss on the current GDX January call trade this year or carry it into 2022 with the hopes that it will get back to break even at best. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today and remains oversold as the rally continues. Below the level of 20 and also beneath both the 50 and 200 day moving averages for the VIX. It is pretty much giving an all clear sign for higher stock prices. We've gone from despair to euphoria in a matter of a week and a half. A long holiday weekend is upon us. Next week should see low volume and probably higher prices. I'll be checking the charts over the next couple of days as usual. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. Merry Christmas everyone.
Wednesday, December 22, 2021
Continuing higher as the Dow rose 261 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning around. The battle with the zero line appears to have been won by the bulls. The Santa Claus rally is intact despite the decline on Monday. The S&P 500 looks to be heading back to new all time highs. The short term technical indicators there have turned higher. The NASDAQ led the way up today and that is a plus. The only negative is the low volume but that may be holiday related. Gold was up $15 on the futures and back above the $1800 level. The US dollar was lower and interest rates took a slight drop. The XAU was up 1 2/3, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was light. GDX is now short term overbought on some of its indicators. I would have liked to see a better gain for the gold shares today but we'll take what we can get. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed on its 200 day moving average. It is now below the important level of 20. It remains short term oversold and as long as that continues the rally will live on. Only one day left for trading this week as the holiday is almost upon us. I'd expect tomorrow to be a quiet, light volume affair around the globe. Europe and Asia were higher again last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.
Tuesday, December 21, 2021
Bouncing back today as the Dow soared 561 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but is trying to turn back around. I believe that it will turn back up as the decline has not accelerated going through the zero line so things should hold up for now. The S&P 500 closed back above its 50 day moving average. We are in a positive seasonal time frame and a collapse has probably been averted. Sideways until the new year is my best guess at the moment. Gold was down $5 on the futures. The US dollar was little changed again and interest rates rose. The XAU was up around 1 1/2, while GDX added about 1/4. Volume was light. The gold shares managed to rise again with a drop in gold. That's a plus but the light volume shows a lack of interest. Looks like I might just have to take the loss here before the new year. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but remains above the 20 level. Still short term oversold here. Only two trading days left this week with a long holiday weekend approaching. We'll see if volatility continues or we see a holiday slow down. Europe and Asia bounced back overnight as well. We'll see how thngs go tomorrow.
Monday, December 20, 2021
Well is wasn't a complete disastor as the Dow fell 433 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. It has now passed through the zero line. That's why I say it isn't as bad as it should be because we easily could have dropped a thousand points today. We'll have to see how the rest of the week plays itself out. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are moving down and still have room to go. We are in a positive seasonal time period but that won't matter if falling through the zero line on the summation index takes charge. We've now closed below the 50 day moving average on the S&P. I'll be on the sidelines and in no hurry to buy for now. Gold fell a dozen on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates ticked higher. The XAU and GDX ended little changed on light volume. That's a plus considering there was a drop in gold. My GDX January calls remain solid losers. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but didn't finish as high as it started out. The short term indicators here remain oversold so there is plenty of room to move higher on the VIX. If that occurs we'll see the kind of drop that passing through the zero line represents. If not we may move sideways for a while before the next rally begins. I'm leaning towards the latter because today really could have been a heavily down session but it wasn't. It was just a negative day. Europe and Asia were lower as selling takes over around the world. We'll keep an eye on what happens tonight and see how things go here tomorrow.
Friday, December 17, 2021
It appears that the Dow played catch up with the other major averages today as it got slammed 532 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trying to hold on to the zero line. The McClellan oscillator again gave a signal yesterday for a big move and we got it today. However it was a mixed picture as the NASDAQ was only slightly lower as the Dow was the under performer. The S&P 500 did manage to close above its 50 day moving average but the short term indicators are turning lower. Perhaps the Santa Claus rally will begin next week. Gold was flat on the session after being higher early on. The US dollar was up and interest rates remained steady. The XAU and GDX also finished little changed after being higher early in the day. My GDX January calls remain solid losers. Will have to think about selling them next week or maybe before the beginning of the new year unless we see some more upside for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and remains above the 20 level. Volatility has been the constant lately. My thinking is that things will slow down next week with the holidays arrival. However it seems the market is still trying to make up its mind on where to go. Positive seasonality is in play. I'll check the charts over the weekend and take it from there. Europe and Asia were lower to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, December 16, 2021
We didn't get any upside follow through to yesterdays gains as the Dow fell 29 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to turn around and remains close to the zero line. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ getting the worst of it. The S&P 500 dropped but is still short term overbought. Not exactly sure what's going on here but it all could be December expiration related. Most major players will take care of business by the end of tomorrow as we've got the holidays right around the corner. I'm still of the belief that higher prices are in the near future and that the Santa Claus rally will come to pass. Gold got a bounce today as the futures gained over $30. The US dollar was lower and interest rates had a slight decline. The XAU jumped 6 1/8, while GDX gained 1 1/2. Volume was good. It looks like yesterday put in a temporary bottom for gold and the gold shares. I did place an overnight order for the GDX January calls again at a lower strike price. It didn't get filled and I canceled it in the morning. My current GDX January calls are still big losers just not as much as before. There's still five weeks to go in this trade but I doubt the gold shares will move enough to turn this trade around. But who knows? It would take a lot more days like today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved back above the 20 level with today price movement. It also still remains short term oversold. Each passing day seems to give a different signal as to the market going higher or lower. I still think that the zero line will hold on the summation index and stocks will begin to turn higher on a steady basis from here. The alternative scenario would be a collapse from here and that doesn't seem probable during this usually bullish time of the year. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes.
Wednesday, December 15, 2021
The Fed spoke and the market did whatever it felt like and the Dow climbed 374 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but will be trying to turn back up. It should be successful as nobody wants to see the market fall apart for the holidays. Increased tapering and increased chances of rate hikes from the Fed did not lead to selling. It was already in the market. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and we're going to see new all time highs as we are practically there. Other indices will follow. A couple of days left before expiration and we'll see where we go. Gold was lower for much of the session but then turned around and the futures were up a few bucks. The US dollar was lower and interest rates moved slightly higher. Not at all what you'd expect with a tighter Fed. The XAU fell 1 7/8, while GDX lost 3/8. Volume was heavy here as it appears that the gold stocks may have put in a bottom here. They finished well up form the lows of teh day. Of course that won't save my GDX January calls as they rmeain solid losers. GDX is now pretty far from its 50 day moving average and we could see a rally back to that. Won't be enough to help my trade though. Perhaps I'll try the January calls again at a lower strike price. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX turned back down is is below the 20 level again. It remains short term oversold. I haven't been able to figure this indicator out lately but as long as it remains oversold the path of least resistance for stocks will be up. We're getting close to Santa Claus rally time also. We'll be looking for higher prices to end the week as the market has rallied on what should be considered bad news. The zero line on the summation index should hold up this time around. Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
Tuesday, December 14, 2021
Another downer ahead of the Fed as the Dow fell 106 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. It is back to heading towards the zero line which would mean a collapse. My guess is that the market will do whatever it has to in order to avoid that. The overall market was again weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. Inflation data came in higher than expected. Despite the two day decline, the S&P 500 is still short term overbought. Not sure what to expect tomorrow. The market did close well off of the lows so perhaps we'll turn things around tomorrow. Gold fell over $15 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates had a slight gain. The XAU lost 1 7/8, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. Gold dropping with inflation rising was not the outcome that I expected when I took on the current GDX call trade. It is the opposite of the past relationship. GDX is oversold and staying that way which implies more downside to come here. My January calls are on the way to the graveyard. It is just a matter of how much the loss will be. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up again today and is back comfortably over the 20 level. It remains short term oversold despite the rise. If these short term indicators start to move back up we are going to see quite a drop in the stock market. I'm not saying that it is going to occur but with the summation index also in the danger zone again you cannot ignore the possibility. It would seem to be unexpected but not for those paying attention. Perhaps the Fed will have something to say that will turn stocks back up. We'll see. Europe and Asia were down overnight. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.
Monday, December 13, 2021
We got a signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two days and we got it today as the Dow fell 320 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to roll over. The NASDAQ led the way down and that isn't a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the major averages are starting to roll over. If this continues it won't be good for stocks. Waiting on the Fed announcement for Wednesday but many are saying it's already in the market. We'll still to the technicals and the S&P 500 is short term overbought on some of them. Probably too late for the SPY December puts if you wanted to try them but who knows? Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar rose while interest rates dropped. Both the XAU and GDX finished little changed on the day. Volume was average. My GDX January calls continue to lose ground and if we don't see some gains here this week I will be taking the loss and moving on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved back above the 20 level today. It also closed above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Still short term oversold here. This indicator has been tough to figure out lately but it has shown that volatility is here to stay for a while. Not exactly sure where the market goes from here now as a case can be made either way. I'll probably stay on the sidelines and wait to see what the Fed has to say on Wednesday. Europe was lower and Asia mixed to start the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
Friday, December 10, 2021
Inflation data was high but came in where expected and the Dow rallied 216 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is now moving sideways. Most of the major stock averages were up today. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high. It is short term overbought now but not completely so. I am still thinking about the SPY December puts ahead of the Fed next week. However we'll have to see how the market moves before Wednesday. I did not think that we would see new highs again this year when the recent decline started. So perhaps the sidelines would be a better spot for me with regards to the SPY. We'll see. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures today but did come off of its highs. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU lost 1 1/8, while GDX fell around 20 cents. Volume remains very light for the gold shares. There is no interest here. My GDX January calls continue to slowly lose ground as this trade has not worked out as planned. GDX remains short term oversold and staying that way. Once again gold itself was up and the gold shares did not follow. That's a negative. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below the 20 level. It is resting on its 200 day moving average. Short term oversold but it could stay that way if the rally continues. It is implying higher stock prices going forward as it appears that we are in the midst of a December rally. A bit early for the Santa Claus rally but you cannot ignore that prices are moving up. I'll be going over the charts as usual this weekend while I try and decide what action to take next week. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, December 09, 2021
Just waiting on tomorrows inflation data as the Dow finished basically unchanged on the session. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative and the volume was light. The summation index has turned back up but may start tracking sideways. The overall market sold off though with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. I did place an overnight order for the SPY December puts but it wasn't filled and I canceled it in the morning. I still like this idea but now perhaps will wait until before the Fed announcement next Wednesday. Running out of time though as there's only six days left in the December option cycle. I also may just sit this one out since I'm already involved in the GDX call trade. The short term indicators for the S&P are beginning to roll over. If that does occur we'll be looking at lower prices. Gold dropped around ten bucks on the futures today. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU fell 3 2/3, while GDX lost over 3/4. Volume was average. My GDX January calls are now solid losers and it may be time to think about just getting out of this trade. I'll see how gold reacts to the inflation data and take it from there. There's still time for the trade to work out but unless we see a quick turnaround this trade will be declared dead. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today as the 20 level has provided a floor for now. This was another reason to attempt the SPY puts because it implies that volatility is about to go up again. We'll see if that actually happens. So the market is again at an interesting juncture. Tomorrow sould tell us something about where we are going. Perhaps a retest of the recent lows? Europe was lower and Asia generally higher in last nights trade. We'll see how the market reacts to the latest inflation data tomorrow.
Wednesday, December 08, 2021
Still moving higher as the Dow gained 35 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index has turned around. The NASDAQ was the outperformer today and that is a plus. The S&P 500 is near a new all time high. My idea for getting the SPY December puts ahead of the inflation number on Friday may be put on hold. I had expected that the highs for the year had already been made but it looks like that thought was wrong. The short term technical indicators for the S&P have turned higher and are not yet overbought. I'll reconsider that trade idea tonight before deciding what to do. Gold finished basically flat on the session. The US dollar was lower as interest rates continued to climb. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on extremely light volume. No interest in the gold shares but at least they're not moving down. My GDX January calls remain at a loss. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped to 20 but remains above both its 50 and 200 day moving average. So this indicator is at the moment of truth. It either contiues to drop and the rally lives on or it turns back up and the selling resumes. We should know by the end of the week what is going to happen. I can't say I'm leaning in either dorection at this point but I'll go over things again later tonight. The market has had quite a bounce and it did save the summation index from going through the zero line. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.
Tuesday, December 07, 2021
Stock market continued higher today as the Dow soared 492 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning around before the zero line. That is significant as it implies that the worst is over for now. The market is doing what it has to to fend off a collapse. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that is a plus. There was no news to use as an excuse for the rally. The market is moving on its own as it always does. Many indices had a gap up at the open. I'm still considering the SPY December puts ahead of the inflation report on Friday but we'd have to continue higher for the next couple of sessions. At this rate it's possible. Gold was up a few bucks today. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates continued to move up. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX added almsot 1/4. Volume was very light as there is really no interest to own the gold shares here. My GDX January calls lost more ground today despite the slight gain and that is a negative. Premium was being taken out of these options as they are out of the money and the underlying asset is going nowhere fast. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped again today but still remains above the inportant level of 20. Another day like today would take care of that. Not sure what to think here as the VIX still remains above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. We'll just have to wait and see what happens from here. It does however seem like the recent decline has ended. Will we now be heading on to new all time highs? The S&P 500 is almost there. Europe and Asia had huge rallies overnight. It seems like we've gone from fear to greed in record time. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Monday, December 06, 2021
The Dow soared today as the most watched index gained 647 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading down but today could be the beginning on an attempt to turn this thing around. The summation index is getting close to the zero line and if the market doesn't hold up here we'll see a collapse. I'm not sure what's exactly in store going forward because we've seen some indexes really drop while the S&P 500 hasn't even had a 5% correction here. The Dow outperformed both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 today. If we somehow remain positive going into Friday, I'll try the SPY December puts. Otherwise I'll have to stay on the sidelines because things really could still go either way. Gold was off a few bucks today on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates rose. The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was light. Gold down and the gold shares up is a positive but the lack of volume makes it suspect. My GDX January calls are still at a loss. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today and the short term indicators here have rolled over. Normally that would imply higher prices in the near term but this hasn't been the case lately. The VIX is still far above the 20 level so I'd expect the volatility to continue. We'll see if we can get a more than one day advance. Not much data out this week but there will be inflation news on Friday. Ideally I'd like to own some of the SPY puts ahead of that. So we'll see how things go from here before the end of the week. As always the market rarely cooperates with the best laid plans. Europe rallied to start the week while Asia was lower. We'll see if there is any follow through buying tomorrow.
Friday, December 03, 2021
The jobs report was weaker than expected but the Dow only dropped 60 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving down. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. That is not a positive. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. Only a final hour rally prevented the day from being even worse. That holds off the bears for now but they are in control. The S&P is clinging to its 50 day moving average but I'm not sure that it is going to hold. Still 2 weeks left in the December option cycle. Gold bounced today with the futures up over $20. The US dollar finished little changed but interest rates fell. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. Gold up and the gold shares barely moving is not a positive for the bulls here. GDX remains short term oversold. My January calls here are still showing a loss but not as much as yesterday. I still think that this trade will work itself out and show a profit. Plenty of time left here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up again today and remains short term overbought. The VIX reading is over 30 now and volatility should be with us for a while. It works both ways though as we've seen this week. My guess is that it will be pretty crazy when the Fed meets in a week and a half. Again, if we do get short term overbought before that, I'd like to try the SPY December puts. However at the rate the market is going here, we won't get the chance. Volume has picked up considerably to the downside and that fact cannot be ignored. If things don't hold up here soon a collapse is possible with the summation index close to the zero line. Lots of things to consider while going over the charts this weekend. Volatility does create opportunity. Europe was lower and Asia generally higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, December 02, 2021
An oversold bounce back today as the Dow rose 617 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. It is a volatile period right now for stocks, with big moves in both directions on a daily basis. The Dow was the strongest performer of the big 3 today. We're still oversold on the S&P 500 even with todays gains. The jobs report will be out tomorrow and that should be the catalyst for more price movement. I'd still be cautious here even with todays gains. Gold continues to drop as the futures lost $15. Interest rates were slightly higher along with the US dollar. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume. I did go ahead and purchase some more of the GDX January calls and that trade is showing a small loss. GDX is both short and medium term oversold. Technically now is the time that makes the most sense to get long. Overall the trade is losing money but there's seven weeks to go and my thinking is that we'll see the gold shares head up from here. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits the rise in prices. Still short term overbought on the VIX and well above the 20 level. Lot's of time left in the December option cycle so I will hope to see a better rise in price in order to try the SPY December puts. Perhaps during expiration week but let's not ahead of ourselves. Europe was lower and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see what the employment report has to say and close out a volatile trading week tomorrow.
Wednesday, December 01, 2021
Now it's starting to get a little bit crazy out there as we had a one day reversal to the downside today. The Dow lost 462 points on heavy volume again. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is really moving down. Oversold to extremes on the McClellan oscillator and yet we are still moving down. Not sure how long this will continue but lower is the idea here. Things are oversold and there will be opportunities. My guess is that we've seen the highs in the market for a while. The easy money is going to dry up and what's left to move things after that? The S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average and is already short term oversold. It might be time to just get out of the way. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures but came off of its best levels. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates slightly lower. The XAU lost 4 1/4, while GDX shed almost a point as the gold stocks followed the general market down. Volume was good. I did place an order for some more of the GDX January calls to lower my average price but the order wasn't filled despite the price hitting the bid. I may try again tomorrow but this would break a pretty solid rule of not to put more money into a losing trade. GDX is now oversold both short and medium term. We are also in a market environment that is out of control to the downside for stocks. It creates opportunities. Whether or not GDX is one of them will only be known after the fact. I'll have to think it over more tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued to climb, remains overbought and it's anybodies guess where it goes next. The market has reached a free fall mode with volatility the main theme. And there's still plenty of time in the December option cycle to trade. Hold on to your hats as the summation index is approaching the zero line and that would move it into the crash zone. Not there yet and I would not expect it to happen but it could. Perhaps the sidelines would not be a bad place for now. Asia and Europe were higher last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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