Thursday, September 30, 2021
The selling continued as we completed the month of September as the Dow fell 547 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trying to move back down again. It was a one day downside reversal as we opened higher and closed lower. We also had a sharp drop in the final half hour. The Dow was the leader to the downside today. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold. However we did break the neckline of the head and shoulders formation on the daily chart. That does imply lower prices going forward. My SPY October puts are still in the black and gained some ground today. I'd like to hold this trade until the beginning of next week but I'm not exactly sure about that. The measuring objective for the head and shoulders pattern is a lot lower from here. Gold rallied as the futures gained thirty dollars. Both interest rates and the US dollar were slightly lower. Perhaps we are beginning to see a flight to safety in these assets. The XAU gained almost 2 points, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was good again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but not as much as expected with a down 500 market. It remains above the 20 level and is not yet overbought. The short term indicators are mid-range so it appears that the market can go either way from here according to the VIX. Win or lose the trading is never easy. As much as I'd like to book the profit here, I also don't want to leave money on the table. There's still a little over two weeks to go in the October option cycle. I guess we'll see what happens tomorrow and how the week closes out. Europe was lower and Asia mixed in last nights trade. We'll close out a volatile trading week tomorrow.
Wednesday, September 29, 2021
It was an up session for the day with a lot of back and forth in between. The Dow gained 90 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is tracking sideways after trying to turn down yesterday. The market seems to trying to make up its mind what to do here. On the plus side there was no downside follow through to yesterdays debacle. On the minus side the Dow was the leader and the NASDAQ finished in the red. The potential head and shoulders top in the S&P 500 hasn't been triggered. My SPY October puts are still in the black but did lose some ground today. I'll hold them for now. Gold dropped another ten bucks. The US dollar had a strong session, while interest rates were a touch higher. The XAU lost almost 3 points and GDX shed 1/2. Volume was good to the downside again. No love for the gold shares and GDX is even further away from the 50 day moving average. I'm looking at the January calls here but certainly not in a hurry to purchase. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The indicators there aren't giving a good sign one way or the other right now. The VIX remains over the 20 level. We've got the end of the month tomorrow to deal with. Perhaps we'll see some new money flows on Friday the 1st. I'm trying to manage the current trade to the best of my ability. I still think that we need to get down to the 4300 level on the S&P and see what happens if we get there. But I could be wrong. Europe was higher and Asia lower last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
Tuesday, September 28, 2021
Sellers showed up today as rising interest rates seemed to matter again. The Dow fell 569 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to move down. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were relatively weaker. The short term technical indicators for the S&P have turned lower. It appears that a retest of the recent lows is in progress. The question is whether or not they'll hold. I certainly don't have the answer but there is a potential head and shoulders top forming for the S&P. If the potential turns into reality the lows won't hold. My SPY October puts are shwoing a profit. Gold dropped $15 on the December contract as interest rates and the US dollar rose. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume. The gold shares did come up from the lows of the session and remain oversold. GDX is pretty far form its 50 day moving average so I would expect a move at least back towards there. Is it worth trading though? It may already be too late. I'll consider it but also try to keep my focus on the SPY trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up and now is comfortably above the 20 level. The short term indicators here have turned up implying more selling to come. I'm not exactly sure that's going to happen. The only thing we can say for sure is that volatility has returned for now. It does appear that if the head and shoulders top pattern on the S&P is valid, we'll be heading down to 4200. Hasn't happned yet though. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Monday, September 27, 2021
We begin the week with a mixed bag as the Dow gained 71 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were lower. The Russell 2000 was higher. So you can see that money was moving around with no real progress made in either direction. My SPY October puts are still around the break even mark. Things will need to start moving lower soon for this trade to work. The short term technical indicators for the S&P are mid-range and starting to roll over. So there is a chance that this was the right idea. Gold was flat on the session. The US dollar barely edged higher and interest rates were up slightly. The XAU and GDX finished little changed. GDX remains short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and closed above the 50 day moving average. It still remains below 20 though. The VIX is now short term oversold. If it gets back above the 20 level my SPY October put trade will probably work. Todays price action in the markets had the feel of simply hanging around waiting for the next direction. We've got some economic data due out this week but nothing of major importance in my mind. So we'll see what happens. Europe was slightly higher and Asia generally flat to start the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.
Friday, September 24, 2021
It was a day of listless trading as the Dow gained 33 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trying to turn back up. No real news to speak of today. It's like the market took a day to catch its breath. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range so I'm guessing things could go either way here. I did purchase soem SPY October puts today. They are at break even. The stop loss order is already in for this trade. We'll see how things go next week. Gold was up four bucks on the December futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up as well. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. Light volume seemed to be the theme of the day as the market now decides where to go from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are oversold but not completely. The VIX is implying higher stock prices for now which is why trying the SPY puts here may not be such a good idea. However I do not think that the market is going straight up to new all time highs here. I'm looking for a retest of the recent lows of Monday. We'll see. Plenty of work to do and charts to go over this weekend. We've got the end of the month on tap for next week as well. Europe was lower and Asia as well with the exception of Japan. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, September 23, 2021
Quite a rally today as the Dow climbed 506 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. The Dow was up over 600 but we faded in the last two hours. We've gone through the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 and more than filled the gap formed on Monday. All Fibanocci retracement levels have been passed. I did place an overnight order for some SPY October puts and it was never filled even with todays huge gains. I'm leaving it out there but will reconsider this idea tonight. It appears that the decline is over but perhaps we'll get a retest of the recent lows. Or not. Plenty to ponder here at the moment. Gold lost twenty bucks on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar. Interest rates were up though. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX was off almost 2/3. Volume was average. I'm back to the sidelines with regards to a GDX call trade. We've broken the 30 level there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX plummeted below the 20 level today and the 200 day moving average. It seems to be forecasting higher stock prices ahead. Not yet oversold here. I think if we close below the 50 day moving average in the VIX tomorrow we can say the decline is over for now. Perhaps I should simply be patient to try the SPY October puts later here or just forget about that trade and look elsewhere. I'll think it over tonight. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out a wild and volatile week tomorrow.
Wednesday, September 22, 2021
A rally sprang up today as the Dow gained 338 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but is once again trying to turn around. Good news came out of China as the holiday there came to a close. The Fed had no surprises. The question now is if the decline is over or just on pause. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up but not decidedly so. I'm still favoring the SPY October puts but that could be the wrong idea. I am probably going to put in an open order for some overnight though. A move back up to the 50 day moving average at 441 or so on the SPY would be the ideal scenario. A short term down trend line comes into play a bit higher than there as well. Plus that would also fill the gap from Monday too. However if we just go up from here, the decline is likely over. Gold was off around $10 on the December futures. Interest rates were mixed, while the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on better than average volume. The gold shares remain short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped but remains above the 20 level and above its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators here have rolled over but are not close to being oversold again. The VIX is also showing signs that the decline could be over but nothing is set in stone just yet. It would be great to see a run to 441 on the SPY tomorrow and that would be the time to try the puts. The market rarely cooperates. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see if we get some follow through buying tomorrow.
Tuesday, September 21, 2021
Back and forth again today as the Dow lost 50 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ finished in the green. Just waiting on the Fed now as yesterdays decline is in the rear view mirror. The S&P remains short term oversold. If we can snap back to the 440 level on the SPY, I may try the October puts. There is a huge gap to fill in the daily chart. However you can also make the case that the market will simply continue to stay oversold and decline from here. Reaction to what the Fed has to say will be key in the short term. Gold was up over ten bucks on the futures again today. The US dollar and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU and GDX were little changed as well and dropped from their highs of the session. Volume was average. I'm guessing things will get moving with the Fed tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today but not as much as it could have been. Remaining overbought on the short term technical indicators here. Staying well above the 20 level and volatility could be here to stay for a while. I'm hoping to get some kind of chance for the SPY October puts but we finished well off of the highs for todays session and that's not a good sign for the bulls. At this point we'll simply wait and see what happens tomorrow and go from there. Asia was mixed with some markets still on holiday. Europe was higher. We'll see what Wednesday and the Fed brings.
Monday, September 20, 2021
The market got clobbered today as the Dow fell 614 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. It could have been worse as the Dow was off close to a thousand points before we got a final hour bounce. There was a huge gap down at the open and things just got worse from there. We are short term oversold on the S&P and staying that way. That is never a good sign. The excuse for todays decline is a Chinese real estate company about to go under. But we'll stick with the technicals as always. I've got support for the S&P 500 at 4200 and if that doesn't hold 4000. So I think we've still got plenty of downside work to do. There's also an outside chance crash possibility as the summation index is heading down to the zero line. I still favor the SPY October puts but let's see some kind of bounce to try those. Gold was up over ten bucks on the futures in a flight to safety. The US dollar finished little changed, while interest rates dropped. The XAU fell 1 1/3 and GDX shed 1/8. Volume was good. I'm back to looking at the gold shares here on the safety and fear factor that we now see in the marketplace. I did look at the GDX October calls but the premiums were pretty pricey. I'll consider this idea again tomorrow. GDX is both short and medium term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and would have closed even higher had we not gotten the final hour push up. It is overbought on the short term indicators so a drop in the VIX would not be a surprise. However it's well above the 20 level and that implies more volatility to come as long as things stay that way. The 200 day moving average is also at 20. The ideal scenario would be a move back to 20 in order to purchase the SPY October calls and then we'd go from there. The market rarely cooperates with your best laid plans. We've still got the Fed to deal with on Wednesday but that may take a back seat to the China woes. The fact that the market over there is closed again tomorrow adds to the uncertainty of what is about to happen. Interesting times. Europe and Asia sold off hard too. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.
Friday, September 17, 2021
Down we went on expiring options Friday as the Dow fell 166 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trying to move lower. My SPY September calls got crushed for a 90% loss. Bad entry, poor management and then got greedy when I had a chance to break even. That's the textbook way not to trade. I didn't use a stop loss order this time around since the price movement is rather volatile during expiration week. The rationale there is that you don't want to be stopped out when the trade has a chance to work. Like all trades win or lose, this one has to be forgotten and you've got to move on. I still favor the SPY October puts going forward but will have to see another bounce in order to purchase. Perhaps some time next week. Make no mistake, the trend is down for stocks. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 did worse than the Dow today. The S&P does remain short term oversold here. Gold finished flat on the day. The US dollar continued higher as did US interest rates. The XAU was off 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/3. Volume was better than average. Looking at the GDX January calls now but in no rush to purchase. The fundamentals for gold here are not positive in my opinion. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the huge loss in the SPY trade this week. The VIX spiked up today and closed above the 200 day moving average and the inportant level of 20. The short term indicators also remain overbought. To me this spells trouble going forward for equity prices. If the VIX stays above 20, the decline could get severe. Hasn't happened yet but it is something to definately keep an eye on. Here is another thing to keep in mind. The bounce we got on Wednesday came out of nowhere and had zero follow through. That is a classic sign of a downward trending market. Rallies can be continued to be sold until that changes. We will have to wait for everyone to turn bearish before the market begins to move up again. Asia was higher and Europe lower to close out the week. Plenty of work to do over the weekend to prepare for next week. We'll have the Fed to deal with on Wednesday. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, September 16, 2021
Another day of back and forth as the Dow fell 63 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues sideways. We had an early sell off as the Dow was down over 250 points. The market managed to make its way back and the NASDAQ finished with a slight gain. My SPY September calls didn't fare as well, they are now solid losers that should have been sold on the close yesterday. Only one day left to go here and it will take a rally of a couple hundred points to bring these back now. It looks like the SPY will not finish above the 450 level and the market makers will rejoice. Gold got hammered today as the futures fell forty bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 6 1/3, while GDX shed 1 1/3. Volume was heavy to the downside. I am no longer considering the GDX October calls. I'll consider the January calls here if we break below the 30 level for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that makes sense considering how much prices moved around. Not sure what the techncial indicators on the VIX are pointing to now. They are mid-range. Also not sure what to expect with option expiration on tap for tomorrow. Higher prices will cut my loss in the SPY call trade while lower prices will most likely wipe it out. The entry timing on this trade was off and then I got greedy after yesterdays rise. Greed kills. Europe was slightly higher and Asia generally lower overnight. We'll close out the expiration trading week tomorrow.
Wednesday, September 15, 2021
Today we got the bounce as the Dow gained 236 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to tracking sideways. The SPY September calls that I have made it all the way back to break even so I'll hold them until the retail sales report tomorrow morning. If we get some follow through buying they might actually turn a small profit. Plenty of risk with just a couple of days to go though. No news to account for todays gains, just the technical nature of the market in my opinion. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Gold dropped over ten bucks on the futures. Interest rates ticked up and the US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains again despite the drop in gold itself. That's usually a positive. Volume was very light so I don't know how much you can read in to the price action. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators pointing down here still imply higher stock prices going forward. My guess is that the SPY option market makers would like the index to finish around 450 on the week for the best possible outcome for them. That's how the volume stacks up there right now. I don't think that we'll get above 450 by the close on Friday. Again, that's a guess on my part. We'll focus on what happens at the open tomorrow and hopefully I can get out of the current trade unscathed. Europe and Asia were both lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
Tuesday, September 14, 2021
Continuing lower as the Dow dropped 292 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is strying to turn down. No buyers in sight as any attempt at a rally is being met with selling. Short term oversold and now medium term as well. I did purchase some SPY September calls this morning and they are of course losers as the market keeps going down. This trade is already in the cut the loss situation. When the normal technical patterns don't work, you know that we're in for something different. I'll be getting out of this trade most likely tomorrow and keeping an eye on the SPY October puts. Gold was up a few bucks on the weak inflation data. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates dropped. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. I'm still considering the GDX October calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced around today and finished about hwere it started. It still closed below its 200 day moving average. Overbought in the short term here for the VIX and that would imply that we should see some stock gains. However that is what it implied on the close yesterday as well. Overdue for some kind of sustained bounce in stocks for at least a session but it doesn't appear to be happening. A lot of the daily index charts are looking pretty negative as well. Three days left in the September option cycle. Retail sales data on Thursday could be a market mover. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Monday, September 13, 2021
It was a back and forth session to begin the week as an early bounce faded and then came back. The Dow gained 261 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. The Dow was the overall leader today as the S&P wasn't as strong and the NASDAQ finished in the red. The market opened very strong and then gave it all back only to rise again in the final hour. An interesting session to say the least. I placed a few orders for the SPY September calls, changing my mind several times. None of them were filled. I might try again tomorrow if there is weakness on the open but I've probably missed this trade. The market action is anything but positive and we may have seen the bounce I was looking for already today. The SPY October puts are now on my radar. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished slightly higher and interest rates slightly lower. The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX rose almost 2/3. Volume was good. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to turn back up. Perhaps the October calls here should be taken a look at again. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. I'm also not sure whether I want to risk putting on a trade with only 4 days left in the September option cycle. The VIX bounced around as well and finally closed lower on the session. It's back below the 200 day moving average. Some of its short term indicators have rolled over. It seems to be implying that higher stock prices are in the cards for the near term. If so I've lost my chance for the SPY call trade which had a pretty good set up. But the short term trades are not my best efforts usually. We'll see how things go tomorrow. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation data due out tomorrow.
Friday, September 10, 2021
We had a one day reversal to the downside today as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 271 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trying to move lower. Down every day this week and 5 days in a row for the Dow. Any weakness on Monday can be bought for a bounce trade and that's what I'll be looking to do. I did place a late order for the SPY September calls but it wasn't filled. If we get some selling on Monday morning, I'll be purchasing the calls. Once the bounce is complete next week I'll be looking to trade the SPY puts. Rallies are being sold now as the market has changed from buying the dips. We are already short term oversold in the Dow. Buying the SPY calls on Monday and selling them on Tuesday is not out of the question. If the market simply takes off to the upside Monday morning we'll count this as another missed idea. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. Interest rates rose and the US dollar had a slight gain. The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was light. Getting to short term oversold for GDX but not quite there yet. But I am keeping in mind that if the market takes a dramatic fall in the coming weeks it will probably take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked above the 20 level today and closed above its 200 day moving average. In recent months when the VIX has gotten above the 200 day it has quickly moved back down below it. I'm counting on that occurring again now for the SPY bounce trade. Another one of my reliable S&P 500 technical indicators is also signaling a short term buy. It will be risky with only a week to go in the September option cycle. Not to mention that the trend has turned to downward for stocks. That said, I would certainly like to give it a go on Monday. I'll be checking the charts this weekend to double check my work. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
Thursday, September 09, 2021
Still heading lower as the Dow fell 151 points on light volume. The advance/declines were just about even though. The summation index is tracking sideways. Any buying is being met with selling as the tone of the market has changed. Today the market was higher early on only to close on the lows of the day. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. If we get a bounce in stocks the next couple of sessions, I'd be willing to try the SPY September puts on Tuesday of next week. If we head lower tomorrow, I'd be willing to try the SPY September calls on weakness Monday. That is how I'm thinking thngs will shape up here in the very short term. Looking further out there, I'm considering the SPY October puts when more of the time premium in them expires. The price action in the S&P has been sloppy lately. However the NASDAQ has held up rather well and I don't see any huge moves lower unless we start to see more weakness there. Gold was up five bucks. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU fell 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/4. Volume was average. Still waiting for GDX to get oversold, not there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and the indicators here have now turned up. The VIX now appears to be saying that move selling is to come. I don't disagree with that but the timing is key. Could things fall apart tomorrow, yes there is that possibility. I guess at this stage I'm hoping that they don't because I'd like to get on board and profit from a drop. Perhaps early this morning was the opportunity that I was looking for but we'll only know that after the fact. So we'll see how things go tomorrow. Europe and Asia were mixed. We'll close out the short trading week tomorrow.
Wednesday, September 08, 2021
Another downer as the Dow fell 69 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. Short term oversold on the Dow but not the rest of the major indices. The NASDAQ led the way lower today and that is not a plus. I'd still like to try the September SPY puts but it may have to wait until next week. The decline that we've seen in the past few days certainly hasn't been robust. It may be setting up for a return to new all time highs before expiration. That's just a guess on my part. Inflation data on Friday could be a key. Gold was off about five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates were a bit lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Still waiting on GDX to get back to short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX closed lower after spiking up early. That doesn't fit with a down day in the market but perhaps it's signaling a return to the rally for stocks. Still short term oversold here though. Running out of time for the September option cycle but I don't want to force things here. I also don't usually do too well with the short term ideas. So we'll see. The market was down today and SPY puts still lost value as time premium is getting sucked out. That's a tough game to play. I guess we'll see what happens tomorrow and go from there. Europe and Asia were lower but Japan bucked the trend. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
Tuesday, September 07, 2021
The Dow took a hit today as the most watched index fell 269 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. The overall market did much better than the Dow, with the NASDAQ posting a small gain. Another new all time high there. I'm still interested in the SPY September puts but would need to see some upside before a purchase. It might be too late. Not a lot of economic data out this week but we do get inflation numbers on Friday. Running out of time in the September option cycle. Timing will have to spot on for an option trade to be successful. Gold dropped almost thirty bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The XAU fell 3 3/4, while GDX shed 7/8. Volume was average. Might try the GDX October calls if and when GDX gets short term oversold again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up and closed above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here remain oversold. Todays move in the VIX could simply be a one day wonder but I'll be watching what happens from here. The October SPY puts have too much time premium built in them now to make a trade there. I really do think that the rally in stocks that began when the coronavirus started needs to take a break. We are in a seasonal time period to allow that to happen. Whether or not it does, we'll know in the coming weeks. Europe was lower and Asia higher last night. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
Friday, September 03, 2021
It was a mixed session after a weaker than expected jobs report as the Dow fell 74 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The NASDAQ posted a gain and the S&P 500 was only slightly lower. The S&P remains short term overbought and I'm still interested in the SPY September puts if we get some strength early next week. The Fed easy money policy won't be changed after todays weak numbers and that provides a floor for stocks at the moment. Eventually that will change. Gold rallied on the weaker employment report as the futures gained twenty bucks. The US dollar was lower but interest rates ticked up. The XAU rose 3 1/4, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was good as it has been on the way up. The gold share calls remain overbought but if they do get back to oversold, I'll try the GDX October calls. The volume on the rise here says that this should be a longer lasting move higher for the gold shares. However I am not going to chase it here but that may not be the correct choice. Nonetheless to me the better course of action is to wait for an oversold condition and try the calls then. If the gold shares simply continue higher and remain overbought then so be it. The ideal entry point has already been missed. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was flat today and remains oversold. Todays light volume was no surprise given the last holiday weekend of summer. Things should get back to normal on Tuesday. There's not much left to do now except go over the charts on a long weekend. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, September 02, 2021
Higher today for the Dow as it rose 131 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. New highs for the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. Both remain short term overbought. No open orders out there for me for now. I'm going to let the employment data play out as it will and look to get some SPY September puts next week. That's teh game plan for now. Gold finished little changed again as it decides which way to go. The US dollar was weaker and interest rates were little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. Most likely tomorrows jobs report will provide the excuse for whichever way gold goes from here. Could go either way in my view. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today which doesn't fit an up market. Not sure what that means but as long as it stays below the 50 day moving average it should be constructive for stocks. We'll see how the market reacts to the jobs report and take it from there. I'm pretty sure that I'll be waiting until next week to put on the next trade. All the players should be back at their desks by then. There will only be nine days left in the September option cycle on Tuesday as the Labor day holiday weekend is upon us. I suspect traders will be leaving early tomorrow. Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trade. We'll close out the week and the unofficial end of summer trading tomorrow.
Wednesday, September 01, 2021
We had a downside reversal day for the Dow as it opened higher and closed lower. It fell 48 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ were positive. The NASDAQ closed at a new all time high. As long as the small stocks lead the way, the trend remains up. I canceled my open order for the SPY September puts. I still like this idea but the timing must be correct. At this point I'm probably going to wait until early next week to try again. But we'll see. Still short term overbought for the S&P although it did drop in the final two hours today. Gold finished flat on the session. Both interest rates and the US dollar were slightly lower. The XAU fell 1 3/8, while GDX shed almost 1/4. Volume was light. Still short term overbought on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains oversold. Not getting any feel for where the VIX is going from here. I think at this point waiting for the jobs report on Friday and the market reaction to it is the prudent course to take. If the market conitnues higher here, I'll consider the SPY September puts after Labor day. That's my best guess at the moment. We did not see as much money flow into stocks today as I expected since we had a late sell off. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
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