March finished mixed as the Dow fell 85 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to move sideways. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way. The market was doing pretty good all day until the last hour of trading. Gains were cut in half. Could just be end of quarter manuvering, we'll know more tomorrow. The light volume this week says traders are on spring break. We'll see how the week finishes tomorrow. GE was off around 1/8 on light volume. Gold bounced where it had to for the bulls as the futures rose over twenty bucks and back above the $1700 level. The US dollar was barely lower. Interest rates went back and forth during the session but finished higher. The XAU gained 2 2/3, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was average. My GDX April calls are showing a minor profit. If we see some upside follow through tomorrow this trade might have a chance. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains below 20. This fits with the overall market but not the Dow. A decent rally would have everything working together. We don't have that going on right now. I'm still looking for the 4000 level on the S&P 500. It remains short term overbought. I think that we'll just look to get through tomorrow to close out the week and then relax during the long holiday weekend. The jobs numbers will be out on Friday when the market is closed and nothing can be done about that until Monday morning. Europe was slightly lower and Asia more so in last nights trading. We'll begin the month of April but finish the week of trading tomorrow.

Lower today as the market is still trying to make up its mind on what to do here. The Dow fell 104 points on lighter than lately volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is back to trending sideways. The Dow opened lower, bounced around for the day and ended with a loss. This is considered a holiday week with the markets being closed on Friday. We also have the end of the month and quarter tomorrow. So perhaps traders are just stepping aside here until next week. The S&P 500 remains overbought and on the cusp of new all time highs. I'm still looking for it to get to the 4000 level soon. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. GE was up over 1/3 on light volume. Gold continued to fall and the futures dropped almost thirty bucks. It's now back below the $1700 level. $1680 needs to hold or gold will be heading lower from here. The US dollar continues to rally. The XAU fell 4 1/8, while GDX shed a point. Volume was average. My open order for the GDX April calls got filled. They closed about where I bought them. Not completely oversold for GDX so we could see more weakness tomorrow. If $1680 doesn't hold for gold this trade will be a loser. If it does hold then a double bottom would be in place for gold and the trade will have a chance. I have liked the way the gold shares have held up recently and this idea has a little over two weeks to work. The market will go where it wants though regardless of anyones trades. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below the 20 level. That doesn't fit with a down market. Not sure what it means and the VIX remains in a sideways consolidation. Interest rates pulled back during the session after moving much higher overnight. Perhaps the rally in rates is due for a pause. That's a guess as usual but the short term technical indicators there remain overbought. Not sure what to expect with the end of the month tomorrow and then the jobs report due out when the market is closed on Friday. I'll probably just sit tight with the latest GDX trade until next week unless we go into freefall from here with gold. Anything's possible in this game. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Another mixed session as the Dow was higher and the overall market lower. The most watched index gained 98 points on good volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative though. This is turning the summation index back down. The overall market was weaker once again with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. I still think that we're going to see higher prices in the near term but if the summation index continues lower I'll have to change my view. Talk of a hedge fund going belly up isn't helping the bulls. Rates ticked up again today as well. We'll see where we go from here. GE was off a few cents and the volume was light. Gold was off $17 today as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX finished flat on the session and up from their lows. I do still have my open order for the GDX April calls out there. The gold shares are holding up well when gold itself is dropping. That is bullish going forward. I'd like to see the order get filled but I'm not going to adjust the price just to make that happen. I'll reconsider what to do tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved back above the 20 level today. The short term technical indicators have moved back up. Thay have been going back and forth for over a week now. The VIX needs to get and stay below the 20 level for the rally to continue. A negative day tomorrow for the market would change the scenario. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

We now have a better idea of where we're going as the Dow climbed 453 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were more than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. Buyers showed up in the final hour and pushed indices to the brink of new all time highs. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We should breach the 4000 level early next week. The rally occurred despite an uptick in rates. Not sure how high things will go here but there will be no overhead resistance. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Gold rose five bucks as the US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU gained 3, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was pretty light. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to turn back up. The daily candlestick chart has a bullish upside reversal pattern after todays price action. My open order for the GDX April calls hasn't been filled. I'm inclined to just buy some on any weakness Monday. I'll consider this over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower, remains under the important 20 level and is implying higher prices going forward. It is short term oversold but can stay that way for weeks in an uptrend. The stock market has the feel of going up with the price action of the past two sessions. The technical indicators are starting to confirm this. I'm looking at strength to begin the holiday shortened week coming up and then we'll see where we go from there. I'll be taking a closer look at GDX and whether or not to try that idea. We're still in a favorable seasonal period for stocks as well. Plaenty to ponder over the weekend while checking out all the charts. Europe and Asia were both higher as money has come pouring back into stocks to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Today we had a one day reversal back to the upside as the Dow gained 199 points on pretty good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The Dow was stronger than the overall market. I'm not exactly sure of what to make of the market action here lately. The S&P 500 did hold its 50 day moving average today. The short term technical indicators here are now mid-range which suggests things could go either way. Perhaps the selling is done for now but we can't be sure. The summation index is still moving down and I don't want to go against that. We'll see what happens tomorrow to finish off the week and go from there. GE was up 1/3 and the volume was better. Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. My open order for the GDX April calls remains out there. Not completely oversold on GDX just yet. May or may not get there. I'm still trying to figure out if this trade is worth taking the risk. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX closed below the 20 level once again today. This indicator shows the most promise for the bulls as it climbed all the way up to the 50 day moving average today and was repelled. Any follow through lower tomorrow would be a plus for the upside in stocks. We'll simply have to wait and see. Then again we might just be in a sideways market for a while. Basically the market is trying to make up its mind what to do here. When in doubt, stay out. I'm on the sidelines for now with regards to the SPY. However I'm not as cautious as earlier this week after todays price action. Europe and Asia were slightly higher as foreign markets try to stop the recent slide there. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index only fell 3 points but was up over 350 points this morning. Volume was pretty good and picked up heading to the downside. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving lower. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. This, despite a drop in interest rates. I'm not exactly sure what we're dealing with here but caution is advised for now. The S&P 500 is heading towards its 50 day moving average and we'll see if that can hold things up. GE was off over 1/8 on average volume for lately. I mention GE because I did buy it a couple of years ago and just sold it recently. It wasn't exactly a trade, considering the time it was held. The profit was good for holding it that long, around 80%. However I was looking to hold on to it longer and reap better gains. But the announcement of a reverse stock split means head for the exits in my experience. Gold rose $7 today and the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX dropped 1/3. Volume was light. I did place an order for the GDX April calls overnight but it wasn't filled today. I'm leaving it out there. With gold higher and the gold shares lower that really isn't a good sign for the bulls. The short term indicators for GDX also have room to go lower. I'll reconsider this trade tonight when going over the charts. If the overall market continues to drop it will probably take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and remians above 20. The technical indicators here have barely turned around and the VIX remains short term oversold. Not sure where it goes from here. If it just meanders around the 20 level, the market will probably just move sideways. If it starts to spike higher then we'll see a pretty good sell off. We'll have to wait and see what the market has in store for us. I don't have any SPY trade set ups at the moment. I would still recommend caution for now. There's plenty of time left in the April option cycle. Europe and Asia were mostly lower. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Sellers took over today as the Dow fell 308 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving down. We'll take our cues from there and move back to a cautious stance. My overall bullishness is over. Unless we see a dramatic upside day tomorrow prices are most likely headed lower from here. How can things change in just one day? It's the nature of the game. The market knows everything and todays price action was anything but positive in the recent scheme of things. The short term indicators for the S&P are starting to roll over again. GE lost 1/2 on what is now considered average volume. Gold fell over ten bucks as the US dollar had a strong session. The XAU dropped 4 7/8, while GDX lost 7/8. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over. This may be the opportunity to get some of the GDX April calls on a pullback. Or not. There's always the possibility that this is the beginning of another leg down for gold and the gold shares. GDX once again could not get through the 50 day moving average. Unless there's a complete collapse here, I'll probably be trying the calls. I may even leave in an open order overnight. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX, which looked so promising yesterday, has now closed back above the 20 level. Still short term oversold here and we'll know more in the coming sessions about what is going on here. We haven't been able to sustain being under 20 yet. So the market is at an interesting juncture that should sort itself out by the end of the week hopefully. I'm not going against the summation index though and it's pointing to lower prices. So we'll see. It was noted that interest rates were lower today but that didn't help equities. Europe and Asia were generally down. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A positive session to begin the week as the Dow rose 102 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative though. The summation index is starting to roll over. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Interest rates stepped back today but the market did sell off in the final hour. I'm still feeling positive going forward for now. If the summation index does roll over here I will have to change my view. GE lost almost a dime and the volume was light. Gold was a bit lower and so was the US dollar. The XAU fell about 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was very light. The short term technical indicators for GDX are still overbought but have started to roll over. If we get a pullback here I'll be looking to purchase the GDX April calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped significantly today and closed below the 19 level. This is another reason to remain bullish here. Although still short term oversold the action in the VIX paints a positive picture going forward. Keeping below the 20 level is a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 remains overbought but can stay that way in rallies. I do not see a near term trade set up in the SPY right now. Patience will be required. The option premiums are high since we just rolled into the April option cycle. It is watch and wait for now. Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overngiht developments.

Another mixed bag on expiration Friday as the Dow fell 232 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ up almost 100 points. The market is trying to make up its mind here on what to do next. I'm back to looking for new all time highs in the indices. If the overall market would have tanked today it would be a different story. But it didn't and the stall in prices here now seems like just a pause on the way to higher prices. Still short term overbought for the S&P 500 but not drastically so. I think that we'll go higher next week. GE was flat on the session and the volume was light. Gold continues to act well, the futures were up $7. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. GDX remains below its 50 day moving average. Any weakness here can be bought in my opinion and I'm still hoping for some type of pullback to purchase the GDX April calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced around during the session but finished above the 20 level. Still short term oversold here. I'm not exactly sure what to expect from this indicator going forward. We are moving on to the April option cycle and the premiums will be high. I'll be waiting on some kind of legitimate signal before executing the next trade in the SPY. We are still in a positive seasonal period for stocks. Equities have also continued to rise despite the back up in interest rates. So we really have to remain with a bullish tone for now. I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Well it looks like everything that I said yesterday has been negated by todays sour price action. The Dow fell 153 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is now stalling here. The overall market fared much worse than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over and have plenty of room to move down. My thesis on rates being done with their rise was incorrect as they hit new recent highs today. Very overbought and staying that way for interest rates at the moment. Sure the SPY March puts would have worked today but who would attempt that trade with only two days left? That kind of short term deal has been proven to not be in my wheelhouse. This could simply be just a one day wonder and we'll know more after tomorrows price action. GE was off 1/3 and the volume was light. Gold dropped a dozen on the April futures as the US dollar was higher. The XAU fell almost 3 points, while GDX lost 5/8. Volume was light. Short term overbought for the gold shares here. If we do get a pullback I'll be looking to try the GDX April calls. The gold shares have acted reasonably well here lately. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked higher today and finished well above the 20 level. This changes the picture here unless we see a sharp drop back below 20 tomorrow. The break of 20 this week could simply have been a false move depending on what happens from here. The short term indicators for the VIX have turned back up but it still remains oversold. Tomorrow will be a telling session for the market even though things could get skewed with the option expiration. My idea of up, up and away from here for stocks could be wrong. Europe and Asia were generally up on the overnight session. We'll see if they follow the US lower tonight. Option expiration tomorrow.

Back to the upside for the Dow as it climbed 189 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The Fed came and went. The market liked whatever it heard, which was nothing unexpected. Still short term overbought for the S&P 500 however there is no overhead resistance and we're still in options expiration week. I'm not considering the SPY March puts anymore with only 2 days left to trade them. I'll start looking out to April for the next SPY trade. GE was up almost 1/2 on light volume. Gold found a bid with the dovish Fed as the futures were up a dozen. The US dollar was lower. The XAU gained 3 3/4, while GDX rose 3/4. Volume was average. Another missed trade here as I was not expecting March to be gold positive. I do still plan on getting some April GDX calls here if we get some kind of pullback in the gold shares. The weekly candlestick chart is bullish and the indicators there have plenty of room to go higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX has now decidedly closed below the 20 level. This implies much higher stock prices going forward as the rally lives on. Longer term you now must be bullish unless we get a quick move back up in the VIX. It is short term overbought but can stay that way when the market is moving higher. It looks like the 10% correction in the NASDAQ is all we're going to get and it's up, up and away from here. Weakness can be bought in my opinion. The jump in interest rates is probably over for now as well. Extremely short term overbought there now. Perhaps a drop there in the coming days will spur the SPY to the 400 level. Just a guess on my part. Europe was lower and Asia mixed last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Lower for the Dow today as it fell 127 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving higher. The overall market was better than the Dow, with the NASDAQ positive. A positive day for the S&P today would have set us up for the SPY march puts tomorrow. Now that trade isn't as easy. I'll have to see what the price action is early on and take it from there. We are short term overbought on the S&P but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher. GE was off twenty cents on lighter volume. Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed. A waiting game on the Fed tomorrow. The XAU dropped 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/8. Volume was pretty light. Waiting for a set up to try the April GDX calls. May or may not happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX barely closed below the twenty level today but the just is still out on whether we make it through there or not. A positive day tomorrow would probably do it and set the stage for much higher prices going forward. We did see some cracks in the wall today though with both the TRAN and the Russell 2000 lower. I don't know if that means anything or not yet. I'm still bullish in the longer term for stocks. Just trying to figure out if a short term SPY put trade tomorrow is worth the risk. We'll see. All eyes and ears on the Fed, with the markets reaction to whatever happens being the key. Three days left in the March option cycle. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The march higher continues as the Dow gained 174 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Overall the broader market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way. There is no overhead resistance as the Dow along with the S&P 500 closed at new all time highs. Everything seems to be pointing up as there are no sellers. We are now short term overbought. I'm thinking of perhaps trying the SPY March puts if we continue higher into Wednesday for the Fed meeting. It would be quite a risky trade with less than 3 days to go. However if we do just rise from here I'll probably give it a try. GE bounced back 3/4 on heavy volume. The reverse stock split that was announced last week caused the huge drop off. It hasn't been voted on yet but I'm not a fan of the reverse split. It is never a really positive event in my mind. Gold was up about ten bucks on the futures, while the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was light. Getting overbought now for the gold shares. I would like to try the GDX April calls if the opportunity presents itself. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX fell today and is right at the important 20 level. We are short term oversold on the VIX. The 20 level has held things for the VIX for the past year or so. A break below this level would imply that the rally is going to go longer and higher than is currently thought. If we can't get through there, a pause or decline should occur. So we'll see where we go from here. Retail sales out tomorrow but we're waiting on what the Fed has to say on Wednesday afternoon. Asia was higher with the exception of China, while Europe was slightly lower. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A mixed bag again as the Dow climbed 293 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The Dow was stronger than the overall market, with the NASDAQ in the red again. I did place an open order for some SPY March calls but it wasn't filled. I might try this idea again next week depending on the market action early in the week. It is getting late for this though. GE was up 1/3 on heavy volume. Gold was slightly higher after being off twenty bucks early. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU and GDX were up slightly, also coming up from the worst levels on the session. The GDX April calls will be in order on weakness next week if we get any. The weekly candlestick chart for GDX has now printed a bullish reversal pattern. So if we see some selling in the gold shares next week we will be buyers. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and is now short term oversold. We're getting close to the twenty level here which has proven to be hard to crack. If we can make it through the rally will continue and go higher than most expect. If not there will be a pause and perhaps another move lower. It's something to keep an eye on. Only a week to go in the March option cycle. last month I attempted a trade in the expiration week and got clobbered. I will hopefully not make the same mistake this time around. The NASDAQ is having trouble making it past the 50 day moving average and is another thing to watch going forward. Plenty of charts to go over on the weekend. Europe and Asia finished the week mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 188 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow again with the NASDAQ leading the way. It closed above its 50 day moving average. We did pull back from the best levels of the session on the S&P. So perhaps some consolidation is in order. The S&P 500 did close at a new all time high. If we get some pullback here, perhaps I'll try the SPY March calls for a short term trade. I'm expecting the positive option expiration bias to be in effect next week. GE was off a buck on extremely heavy volume. They sold their air laesing business in a widely anticipated deal. Sell the news I suppose. Gold pulled back slightly today and the US dollar was lower as well. The XAU added 3 1/2, while GDX gained 5/8. Volume remains on the light side. The gold shares performing better than gold itself is a positive though. I'm still waiting to try the GDX April calls. The short term technical indicators for GDX have already turned back up but are not overbought as of yet. The light volume is a concern so there's no point in chasing this move higher right now. Resistance for GDX is at 34 and we'll see what happens when we get there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and it's getting short term oversold. Therefore any attempt at trading the SPY calls in the March option cycle would have to be short term. Meaning a couple days or so at the most. It's good to see the small stocks take the lead again for the bullish cause. The only caveat on the move higher is the contracting volume as the indices have moved higher. It is a warning sign but not necessarily a deal breaker for trying the SPY March calls in the next six days. We'll see. Europe and Asia moved up in last nights trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Once again were getting a mixed bag when it comes to stocks as the Dow soared 464 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. The Dow was by far the best performer of the day as the NASDAQ posted a small loss. The S&P 500 did manage to get throught the short term resistance line today and close above it. I'm still considering the SPY March calls if we get some selling here soon. However the opportune time to buy the calls here has passed. Not yet completely overbought for the S&P, so there's a chance that a call trade before expiration could still work. I do not however like the fact that the Dow is leading the way here. It's a healthier market when all stocks are rising and that isn't the case at the moment. GE was off 3/4 on extremely heavy volume. It does need to work off its short term overbought condition. Gold was up around another five bucks as the US dollar was slightly lower in todays trade. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. No volume equals no interest in the gold shares right now. I'm still looking at the April option cycle here if I decide to try the GDX calls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and still has plenty of room on the indicators to support the short term rally that we find ourselves in. It is true that the S&P 500 could be forming a head and shoulders top here, with the right shoulder being made now. But the fact that I'm seeing this talked about so much leads me to believe that it won't happen. Whenever the majority believe something about the market it rarely comes to pass. We'll know in the coming days. I'm still going to look for new all time highs for the S&P before expiration. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

A bounce in tech stocks led to a rally today but the Dow only added 30 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around and I think that it will be successful. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way. It gained over 450 points. Interest rates retreated and that was the excuse for the rally. Although I didn't get any SPY March calls I'm still looking at this idea as the next trade. Today the S&P 500 made it above a short term resistance line that has been in effect since mid-February. However it could not hold the gain and closed back below it. Volume, although heavy, still wasn't as good as it's been lately. So there may be another dip lower here to give us the chance to try the SPY March call trade. We'll see in the coming days. GE stalled today and was off 1/8 on good volume. Gold soared as the US dollar dipped. The gold futures climbed over thirty bucks. The XAU was up 3 points, while GDX rose 7/8. Volume was average. The short term technical indicators for the gold shares have turned up. I am however still waiting for the GDX April calls as the next trade here. If it turns out that a sustained move higher for the gold shares starts here, then I've missed it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but did close back above its 50 day moving average. The indicaters here have turned lower and have plenty of room to go before getting oversold. It is another eason to remain bullish here for stocks. On the flip side the bounce in the NASDAQ today out of the blue could be worrisome if we don't see some more near term upside. The NASDAQ has led the way down and sometimes in down markets you get moves like today out of the blue that are just oversold bounces. I don't think that's the case here but we'll be keeping an eye on it. Europe and Asia were both higher overnight as the recent drop in stock prices around the world comes to a halt. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It's getting a bit mixed up here as the Dow climbed 306 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. The Dow hit a new intra-day high today but both the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ were down. The TRAN set a new all time high so the Dow theory is intact. However with the small stocks being the laggards, it isn't all that positive in my view. I'm not sure if purchasing some SPY March calls on weakness tomorrow is the right idea but I still might give it a try. Less than 2 weeks to go in the March option cycle. Money has obviously been moving from the tech sector to the old industrials for whatever reason. I'm not getting a clear technical signal either way for the S&P. I'll check things over again tonight. GE continues to climb as it gained 1/2 on pretty heavy volume. Gold sank as the US dollar continues its rally. The precious metal futures lost twenty bucks. The XAU fell 1 7/8, while GDX dropped 3/8. Volume was very light. The gold shares continue to hold up rather well despite the losses in gold. This is usually a bullish sign. I am looking at the GDX April calls. GDX seems to be putting in a base at the 31 level. We'll see if it holds. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today despite a rise in the Dow. It did follow the overall market though. The short term technical indicators here are mid-range but it's my guess that the VIX will drop from here and we'll see the overall market pick up. Just a guess though as the technical picture isn't 100% clear. Rates continue to climb but they are short term overbought and staying that way. It won't last forever. I'll have to look things over again tonight and go from there. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Dow soared today as it gained 570 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. We had some early selling but the market turned things around. The jobs report came in better than expected. I'm sure that some of the volume today was short covering as I am now guessing that the decline is over. The S&P 500 now shows a hammer on its daily candlestick chart and also closed back above its 50 day moving average. The McClellan oscillator has put in a double bottom. I'll be looking to purchase some SPY March calls on weakness early next week if we get any selling. We now also have a hammer on the NASDAQ daily chart. I'll go out on a limb and say that we'll see new all time highs for the S&P by option expiration on the 19th. The short term indicators for the S&P are starting to turn back up. GE was barely higher on good volume. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well. The XAU rose almost 3 points, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was lighter here. The gold shares trended sideways this week and you can certainly make a case for trying the calls here. But I am more inclined to wait for the April option cycle here. I'll consider the options over the weekend. The VIX was sharply lower today and the short term technical indicators have rolled back over. Not even close to being oversold here and it is one of the reasons that I'm turning bullish. Now if we were to see a give back of all the gains made today on Monday, I might have to change my tune. But I don't think that will happen although I'm hoping for some selling only to get in a long position. If we simply continue higher then the opportunity will have been missed most likely. There is also a chance that the S&P is forming a head and shoulders top, with the right shoulder beginning to be made right now. That is a longshot in my view but we'll keep an eye on it. I still feel good about higher prices from here going forward. It looks like interest rates are forming a near term top as well. Plenty of charts and information to go over this weekend. Europe and Asia were both lower overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Lower we go as the Dow fell 346 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. It could have been worse as we were off about twice that intra-day. Oversold for the major averages and below the lower Bollinger bands. The S&P 500 could not hold its 50 day moving average. It seems a bit stretched to the downside here to me, so a bounce is in the cards soon. But where we are heading is the main question. The NASDAQ has led the way lower and is already off over 10%. I don't think that we're headed for an extended downturn but I certainly can't say that for sure. The rise in rates is the excuse and they were higher today. The Fed chairman spoke but it did not appease the market. We'll see how things go with the employment report tomorrow. GE bucked the trend again with a gain of 1/8 on very heavy volume. Gold fell and closed below $1700. The precious metal futures dropped over a dozen. The US dollar had a strong day. The XAU was off 1 1/8, while GDX was flat. Volume was good. The gold shares have held up rather well despite the drop in the metal recently. I would like to try the GDX calls again as it remains oversold and appears to be trying to form a base. I did place another order for the March calls last night but canceled it during the session today. I'll consider it again tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked above 30 today but then fell back. The short term indicators here turned back up but are not yet overbought. Ideally I'd like to see a reading between 35 and 40 to let me know the decline is over. The market rarely cooperates. It's possible that we see a rally in stocks tomorrow and the VIX rolls back over. The only thing that we can say with reason is that volatility has picked up and the recent daily uptrend lines in the indices have been broken. Where we go from here is the main question. I'll look over things again tonight and try to come up with an answer. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

We continue to see the market deteriorate as the Dow fell 121 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative once again but not as much as expected considering the overall market weakness. The summation index is still moving down. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ continuing to lead the way lower. The NASDAQ is now clearly below its 50 day moving average and implies even lower prices going forward. I'm back to being cautious as my thesis that things would turn around here and head higher was wrong. I've been leaning to the bullish side but the market has proven that to be incorrect. The Dow is holding up here but the S&P 500 closed back at its 50 day moving average. Another day like today and that area of support will be violated as well. We are getting close to the lower Bollinger band for the S&P and perhaps that will keep things in check. Still waiting on Fridays jobs numbers for the next excuse to buy or sell. GE bucked the trend and was up 1/2 on very good volume. Gold was off over $20 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU shed 3 points, while GDX lost 5/8. Volume picked up to the downside. The gold shares did finish off of their worst levels of the session. I am still looking at the GDX March calls but trying to remain patient. The gold shares have been acting better than gold itself and that is a positive. They are oversold on both a short and medium term basis. The trouble is that the fundamentals don't favor gold at the moment nor does the seasonality. The recent ramp up in interest rates has provided headwinds for stocks and that applies to gold as well. Though rates remain overbought there is nothing that says they can't simply stay that way. It seems to me that gold is trying to hang in here at the $1700 level and if it does there should be a tradeable rally in the short term. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a spike today and closed above its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators for the VIX remain close to mid-range but if they turn back up we could see a significant decline. I'm not saying that will happen but it could. We're also almost to the top of the Bollinger bands for the VIX here. Europe and Asia were both higher last night. We'll see if they follow the US lower on Thursday. I'll be keeping an eye on the overnight developments.

No upside follow through to yesterdays terrific gains as the Dow lost 144 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still heading lower. It was a back and forth session with the bears taking control in the final hour. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. The Bollinger bands for the S&P 500 are starting to get closer. The short term technical indicators are now mid-range. I'm still giving the benfit of the doubt to the bulls for now. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU gained 4 1/2, while GDX rose a point. Volume was average. I did place an open order for some GDX March calls overnight but it wasn't filled. The techncial indicators had gotten to the point to give the calls there another try. Now that we've bounced I'm not sure whether to chase things here or not. I think that the April GDX calls would be a better idea at some point this month. We'll just have to take it day to day and see what plays out with regards to the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only up slightly today as it hangs around the 50 day moving average. The 50 day moving average has held things in check for the major stock averages so far. I'm expecting it to hold. I am however keeping a close watch on the NASDAQ, as it is back to its 50 day moving average and has been leading the way lower. I'm not getting a good feel on what's happening with the stock market at the moment. I am still bullish though unless we start breaking those 50 day moving averages. The economic data has been coming out a little better than where expceted so far this week. All eyes will be on the employment report due out on Friday. Asia was lower and Europe a bit higher in lst nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The market blasted off to the upside as the Dow gained 603 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Oversold bounce? Start of the month money flow? Or the beginning of a sustained move higher? These are the questions that will find answers in the coming days. Unless we head back down hard tomorrow, I'm once again inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. 50 day moving averages have held for the major indices. Many of the short term technical indicators are bouncing back from being oversold. But with the recent extreme volatility that we've seen, anything is possible. I'm still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY. GE was up over 1/2 on average volume. Gold opened higher but the futures fell back for a loss of $7. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on what passes for average volume these days. Oversold all the way around for the gold shares. March is not usually a good month for gold so I am trying to not purchase the GDX calls here. That said, the indicators for GDX are in the buy zone on multiple time frames. If a trade was to be made here it would have to be on a short term basis. The fundamentals for gold remain negative at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped hard today and the indicators here have more room to go lower. That supports a bullish thesis on things going forward. The VIX also closed back below its 50 day moving average. So perhaps the fears generated by the spike in interest rates is already over. You can certainly make a case for that. Markets go where they want though and I'll see what happens tomorrow before deciding on a plan of action. But todays price action will certainly have the bears on the run. Europe and Asia were higher as we got buying of stocks around the world. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.