It was a wild ride to end the month as the Dow gained 329 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending sideways. Overnight the S&P futures sold off and the Dow was off over 300. The market roared all the way back by the open and was up over 500 points. With two hours to go the Dow suddenly dropped 400 points. It then bounced back to finish the day where it did. A lot of end of the month and quarter volatility. The overall market wasn't as strong as the Dow. I'm not exactly sure what it all means but we could have sold off today but didn't. The advantage is with the bulls. October starts tomorrow and we'll see how that goes. Jobs report on Friday should be a mover. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. Gold dropped about $5 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on pretty light volume. The light volume shows the lack of interest here for the gold shares either way. I do still have an open order out for the GDX October calls. However this is one to be careful with because the monthly candlestick chart now for gold shows a topping pattern. This implies that gold will be heading lower or sideways at the least. The gold shares are short term oversold here and if we get a rollover here again on price, it could set up the call trade. It's a risky one however and time is running out day by day. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished a bit higher despite the rally in stocks. It once again bounced off of its 50 day moving average. If it could get through the 50 day moving average, then the rally would have some legs most likely. The S&P 500 is stuck at its 50 day moving average as well. I'm not really sure as to what to do with the SPY right now so I'm on the sidelines there. The short term techncial indicators here have moved up but not convincingly so in my mind. We'll know more as the week progresses. The pandemic virus backdrop remains along with the upcoming presidential election. The ongoing stimulus drama is in the picture as well. There's room for good news to drive things higher. Last nights presidential debate was viewed as a disaster but the market came back from the overnight drubbing. Perhaps that's a clue as to the underlying sentiment. That's a guess as usual. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was a back and forth session as the Dow fell 131 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending sideways. It looks like the backing and filling has begun but that could change tomorrow. The NASDAQ did not lead the way lower here and that is a plus for the bulls. We'll get the end of the month position squaring tomorrow before we head into October. Waiting for the market reaction to the jobs report at this point. The S&P is hanging around its 50 day moving average. If this continues, I might try the SPY October puts ahead of the employment report. We've come up about halfway on the short term techncial indicators for the S&P 500. GE was off a few cents on lighter volume. Gold continues higher, the futures rose $15. The US dollar was lower again. The XAU was up 1 2/3, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains light here. I did place another open order for the GDX October calls but it would take a decline to get filled. If GDX continues to move up I'll cancel the order. Today was a repeat of yesterday. Gold itself had a fairly good day but the gold shares didn't follow suit. That is not usually a sign of strength for the precious metals complex. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished barely higher despite a drop in stocks. Once again this is a tough indicator for me to get a correct read on lately. I'm leaning towards the SPY puts again for a short term trade if things set up properly. I do not think that we're going to simply move higher from here to new all time highs again but I could be wrong. The summation index is trying to turn around and down trends lines have been broken on some of the major indices. However that could mean a sideways market for a while and not a sustained up trend. I suppose that at the moment I don't have as good a good handle on things as I'd like to. I'll leave the GDX call order out there for now and see what happens. Asia and Europe were mixed overnight. We'll finish the month of September tomorrow.

We had a gap higher at the open and the market took off from there. The Dow gained 410 points on good volume. The advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive. The summation index has stopped going down. Most of the major averages have now broken through their down trend lines. The recent decline has run its course for now. I do not think that we'll just go straight back up from here but weakness can probably be bought. The short term techncial indicators are pointing higher and are not yet overbought. I still do not have any SPY trades in the works. However if we continue higher and get short term overbought, I'd be willing to take a look at the puts there again. We'll see if we get a set up ahead of the jobs report on Friday. GE was up a few cents on average volume. Gold rallied as the futures gained almost twenty bucks. The US dollar was lower. The XAU rose over 1 1/2, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was pretty light. The rally in gold should have inspired more buying than what we saw today in the gold shares. I canceled my open order for the GDX October calls but I think that I'll try again at a lower strike price. I get the feeling that the gold shares just may trade sideways here for a while in the October option cycle. That's a guess on my part. The October GDX calls all lost value today even though the GDX was higher. Time and volatility value is already starting to get taken out of these options. That's another reason why trading them may not be the best course of action. There also is a ton of resistance now after the recent decline. It will take quite a push to get through it and I don't know if that is something that will happen anytime soon. But if we drift lower from here I might take the chance. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced off its 50 day moving average again and just moved slightly lower despite a huge run up in stocks. That doesn't exactly fit properly with the market action. Still oversold here and that's one of the reasons that I'm not completely bullish about where we go from here. The recent price action probably has a short covering element to it as well. But most of the short term indicators for the major averages have turned back up with room to run. So we'll have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt for the near term. Perhaps that changes with the employment report later in the week but that's just another guess on my part. Some backing and filling before we go higher from here would not be out of the question. Europe and Asia were higher as well. We'll see how things trade tomorrow.

It was a good day for the bulls as the Dow climbed 358 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. The NASDAQ led the way higher and also broke through its down trend line. This index usually leads the way both up and down. The volume wasn't all that heavy though and it is still below its 50 day moving average. The short term techncial indicators have turned back up though. If we get some follow through upside on Monday, the market decline may be done for now. The S&P 500 hasn't broken its declining tops line yet but the indicators here have turned up as well. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Gold was off $6 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. Still oversold on the short term indicators for GDX. I've left my open order for the GDX October calls out there but it hasn't gotten filled. I'll have to reconsider this idea over the weekend. There doesn't seem to be a lot of interest in the precious metal lately and the monthly candlestick chart for gold will show a topping formation come Wednesday when September has concluded. Three weeks left in the October option cycle and if I decide to pursue this trade it won't be one to hold too long. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with a strong market. Still above the 50 day moving average and a break below there would also suggest a turn for equities. Hasn't happened yet. I stll don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment but will look things over again this weekend. The backdrop remains uncertain with the continuing pandemic virus, upcoming US election and lack of a new stimulus bill. If an agreement on a stimulus bill would occur, that should be a positive for the market. If we can get the summation index turned back up, that would be bullish too. However none of this has happened as of yet and the trend is still pointing down. Hopefully we'll know more after Monday but that could just simply be a light volume affair. We're coming up to the end of the month next week so we will have to see how that plays out as well. I'll be going over the charts this weekend and we'll see what I can find. Asia was higher and Europe lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We got a bounce today as the Dow was up 52 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is heading lower. It was a back and forth session. We got 10 points away from the 3200 level on the S&P 500. So there is a chance that the decline is over. But the jury is still out on that. We are below the 50 day moving average on the S&P and the down trend line remains in effect for now. Oversold and staying that way. GE was off a nickel on good volume. Gold managed to stop dropping today as the futures rose five bucks and finished well off of their lows. The US dollar was slightly lower. The gold shares rallied, with the XAU gaining 5 1/8 and GDX up a point. Volume was average for lately. My open order for the GDX October calls was missed by a tick. I had adjusted the price higher overnight but it still wasn't filled. I'm still leaving it out there but it may be too late. The rise in the gold shares today says that the decline there is over in my mind because it was so much stronger than in gold itself. That is usually a positive sign. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated. Coming within a tick of being filled on a trade that I want to do is the reason. But it's happened before and it will happen again. At least the general idea is right for now. The VIX was just a bit lower today. There's still plenty of room on the short term technical indicators to rise and that would coincide with a drop in stock prices. So it is still a tricky call as to what is going to happen here. September is generally a negative month for stocks and this year is living up to that. I don't have any solid SPY trades in mind at the moment. Europe and Asia were lower last night. We'll see if they get a bounce tonight and we'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The down trend lines remain in effect as the Dow lost 525 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. The NASDAQ led the way lower and if we get some follow through tomorrow it should hit a new low for the move. The S&P 500 is almost at 3200 and it will probably get there tomorrow as well. The McClellan oscillator will be very negative after today too. We'll need to see it stabalize or turn around here soon or it could get very ugly. I do not expect this decline to turn into a full on rout but the possibility is out there. We are oversold and staying that way for the major stock indices. Buyers are on the sidelines for now after yesterdyas appearance. GE was off over 1/8 on good volume. Gold got pounded lower as the futures dropped forty bucks. The support at $1900 failed. The US dollar continued higher today. The XAU lost 9 3/4, while GDX fell 2 3/8. Volume was heavy to the downside. I left my open order for the GDX October calls out there but it wasn't filled. Getting close though and I would have expected it to be filled by now. Support for GDX has been broken as well so why even attempt this trade? It looks like the trying to catch a falling knife syndrome. We've also broken down on the technical indicators where previous declines had stopped. I think if this order does get filled it will be an opportunity for some profits on the first bounce back from the decline of this week. Or gold and the gold shares could just continue to fall since the next support for the precious metal is at $1800. I'll reconsider this idea tonight. Mentally I'm still feeling tired as I haven't felt well all week. The VIX was higher today as it bounced off of its 50 day moving average. The short term technical indicators here still have plenty of room to run before reaching overbought. That says that the decline could be much longer than I am currently thinking. That would certainly spell trouble for any call side trades. So there is nothing wrong with calling off whatever I'm doing now and heading to the sidelines either. I'll consider this tonight as well. Asia was mixed with Europe higher in last nights trading. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Higher today as the Dow gained 140 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving down. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. That's a plus for the bullish cause. We could see a continued bounce here and it is possible the decline is over for now but I doubt it. Resistance for the S&P comes in at the declining tops line and 50 day moving average at around 3350. That is the area that will tell the story and I'd say to keep an eye on that. We've got some economic data out this week but I think that the market is moving to its own beat for now. Also the Fed chair with some testimony before Congress, which happened today and continues tomorrow. GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains heavy. Gold was down about ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar continues higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. I left my open order out for the GDX October calls. I also added another order at a different strike price since some of the indicators for GDX are where we've seen the recent declines in this index turn around. I canceled it before the close but may try again tomorrow. Gold is holding $1900 for now but with the climbing dollar the question is whether it will hold or not. I certainly don't know the answer to that but the short term technical indicators for GDX have reached oversold. This is the logical spot to try the calls. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was lower and that makes sense with an up stock market. Still above the 50 day moving average here with some of the indicators in oversold territory. It's one of the reasons that I don't think that we're done with the downside for the market. Today the NASDAQ barely broke through its declining tops line and closed just below the 50 day moving average. This index led the way down and it should lead the way back up, so it's soemthing to keep an eye on tomorrow. Gold has held $1900 and silver has held $24 support for now. I'll look things over again tonight but I'll probably be placing another order for the GDX October calls tomorrow. But it may be too late there as well. Plenty of time in the October option cycle for trading. What I want to avoid is being overconfident just because the last trade was a winner. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A steep drop for the Dow to begin the trading week but it could have been worse. The most watched index fell 509 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The Dow was off over 800 but a last hour comeback for stocks trimmed that loss. The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow and that is somewhat of a plus. The NASDAQ was almost in the black today and that may be a sign that things are overdone in the short term. The daily candlestick for the S&P 500 looks like a hammer and that would be bullish. However the measuring objective from the recent bear flag is much lower. Below what I perceive as initial support at 3200. More like around 3100 if the pattern fulfills its objective. I don't think that we'll get a chance to try the SPY puts again soon but I could be wrong. GE got clobbered and lost 1/2 on very heavy volume. The rally fizzled quickly there. Gold fell today too and the futures were off over forty bucks. The US dollar was higher. The XAU shed 6 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/2. Volume picked up a little to the downside. Gold is trying to hold the $1900 level and whether or not it does will tell us where the gold shares are going. I did place an open order for some GDX October calls but we'll need to see more of a drop to get it filled. GDX is trying to hold support here at 39. The piching Bollinger bands imply a big move and it now could be to the downside. If that's the case, you don't want the calls. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX moved over the 30 level today but then fell back. Some of the short term techncial indicators here remain in the oversold range. So even with the recent volatility things haven't moved up to overbought. That could spell even more trouble down the road. Although I must admit that I haven't been able to read the VIX with any certainty lately. Even with todays late session rally, I still think that we've got more to go on the downside going forward. Option premiums are high since we just rolled into the October cycle. The volatility is adding premium as well. Gold did break the $1900 level today but then came back. That's the line in the sand. The GDX calls could be the next trade but it really needs close attention because there's a chance that things fall apart here for the metals. Perhaps the overall market as well but tomorrow will most likely tell us about that. Asia was lower and Europe had a very negative day. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We closed the week on a down note as the Dow fell 244 points on expiration very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is now trending lower. The overall market was once again weaker than the Dow. The Dow was off 400 during the session but the market made a comeback in the final hour and a half. It appears that the stock indices are trying to hold on here and not allow the bearish flag formation on the daily charts to trigger. I don't think that they'll be successful. Looking back on yesterdays SPY trade, holding on another day would have increased the profit but I simply didn't want to take the risk. In retrospect all trades could be better or worse. The important thing to remember is whether it's a profit or a loss you've got to let go and move on. Where we go from here is what matters and I think we're going lower. GE was off over 1/8 on good volume. Gold gained five bucks on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume remains light here as the gold shares followed the overall market lower. The GDX October calls are on my radar now. If the overall market continues to drop, it should take the gold shares with it and that may provide the opportunity to try the calls. That's the best case scenario for now in my view. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with the market decline. This indicator has been giving a lot of conflicting signs lately. It's still holding above the 50 day moving average on the daily chart. The daily chart for the S&P 500 shows the technical indicators oversold on a short term basis. The weekly chart still has room to go lower on the technicals. We're rolling into the October option cycle on Monday. I still think that the S&P will make it down to the 3200 level over the next couple of weeks or sooner. If we somehow got a rally from here back to the top of the flag at the 3425 level I'd be willing to give the puts another shot. But I don't think that's going to happen. I wouldn't be surprised if we just head lower next week. We'll see what the market has in store for us. Option premiums are elevated with the move to the next trading month and the recent volatility. So there isn't exactly a rush to do anything here for now. I'll go over the charts again this weekend and see what I can find. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Lower today as the Dow lost 130 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The Dow was off over 350 at one point today. The summation index is still in a sideways range. We had a huge gap down on the open today but the indexes managed to hold support for now. The overall market was weaker than the Dow again with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. I sold my SPY September puts early on and reaped a gain of just over 300%. The exit could have been a bit better but it was a good trade nonetheless. Doesn't matter now though as you must always keep moving forward in the game. Expiration Friday tomorrow and I won't be attempting anything there. I sitll think that we're heading lower from here. GE continued to move higher as it gained 1/3 on extremely heavy volume again. Gold lost some ground, the futures there were off a dozen. The US dollar was lower as well. The XAU dropped 2 points, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume here remains light. I am still looking at the GDX October calls and that may be the next trade in line for me. Not close to short term oversold there but GDX is holding its 50 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up early on the gap down in stocks. However it eroded those gains during the session and finished with just a small move higher. Still oversold on some of the short term indicators for the VIX. The market had a chance to fall apart today but it didn't. The question is whether the lows of the bear flag will hold as they did today or was this just something option expiration related? My guess is the latter, as I believe that were going to head down to at least 3200 on the S&P 500 before this decline is over. I could be wrong and often am. Europe and Asia were both lower overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

An interesting session as usual when it comes to the Fed announcement days. The Dow managed a gain of 36 points on pretty good volume. The Dow was up well over 300 at one point. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways and trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ was lower on the day along with the S&P. The market rallied after the Fed but then fell apart during the last hour. Volume picked up on the decline and with the NASDAQ leading the way it isn't exactly bullish. Retail sales were a bit lighter than expected. My open order for the SPY September puts was filled as the S&P 500 reached the target of 3245. It actually moved past that level and I probably could have done better on the entry. The position is showing a profit but of course that could get wiped out fast with only two days to go. For now the bearish flag formation appears to be intact on the S&P but things obviously could go either way from here. I don't think that I'll hold this position until Friday and with any luck I should dump it tomorrow with a profit. We'll have to see how things go overnight. GE exploded 2/3 to the upside on extremely heavy volume. The company reported some good news about cash flow. Gold was up about $5 on the futures as the US dollar finished a bit higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The Fed did not affect gold this time around. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only up slightly despite the volatility as it continues to hover around its 50 day moving average. With only two days left in the September option cycle, the risk in my SPY put position is as about as high as things get. I'll try to remind myself to stay nimble but when the markets are moving that isn't always a consideration. If the bearish flag formation on the S&P is valid we'll be heading down a lot lower. However I sincerely doubt that will happen within the next two days. Todays price action was certainly negative but anything can happen with just two days to go for the September options. The very short term trading is not one of my strong points but this trade may prove to be the exception. I'll see how things open tomorrow and take it from there. Europe was higher, with Asia generally up with the exception of China and Hong Kong. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

An early rally faded but the Dow did manage to eek out a two point gain on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is turning sideways. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way again. I did place an open order for some SPY September puts last night but it wasn't filled. The S&P 500 did make it up almost to 3420 before backing off. I'm looking for 3425 but that was pretty close today. I canceled the order from last night and moved up a strike price with the next order that I'm leaving out there. We'll get the Fed tomorrow and that should increase the volatility. This trade is a risky proposition and if it doesn't get filled tomorrow I'll most likely head for the sidelines. Retail sales will be reported before the bell and we'll take it from there. GE was off a nickel on average volume. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as it dropped back from the highs of the session. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX were little changed as well on light volume. I'll be looking for the GDX October calls if we get back to short term oversold on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down a touch and is hanging around its 50 day moving average. The short term technical indicators here are oversold but not completely. However if the 50 day average holds, we should see the VIX rise and stock prices fall. Hasn't happened yet and if the 50 day doesn't hold the VIX will continue to drop and the recent rally will have legs. Trying to time the short term swings is extremely difficult and especially during options expiration week. The profits will come quick but the losses will be even faster. Time decay speeds up and isn't your friend in either direction. I still think that we're in a bear flag for the S&P and if we somehow reach the top of it tomorrow, I'll probably cancel my open order and just buy some SPY puts. That's the idea for now subject to change as always. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

Expiration week started to the upside as the Dow gained 327 points on average volume. The advance/declines were a little over 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but is trying to turn around here. Whether or not it does will have a lot to do with where we're going near term. The overall market was stronger than the Dow and the NASDAQ led the way. That is a plus for the long side here. Only four days to go in the September option cycle. High risk trading now but I do have an idea. If the S&P can make it up to the 3425 level, I'll try the SPY September puts. I'm going on the assumption that a bearish flag formation has occurred since the recent drop and that 3425 is the top of that flag. We'd have to get to that level in the next two sessions for me to try this idea. There's also a chance that we've finished the mild correction for stocks here and will now go back to test the recent all time highs. Time will tell on that. GE was up twenty cents on lighter volume. Gold added almost twenty bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU climbed 6 points, while GDX rose almost 1 2/3. Volume was light. I've missed the GDX September call trade but will look to try the October call options if we get back to oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and made it back to the 50 day moving average. This is the logical spot to try the index puts although the short term technical indicators are not yet completely oversold. I've set my targets as to where to try the SPY puts this week. We either get there by sometime on or before Wednesday or we don't. Another day like today would do it but the market will do what it wants. It's a risky idea to be sure but if the underlying prognosis is correct, it will work. We've got the Fed on Wednesday and it's possible that we'll be in a holding pattern until then. The pandemic virus continues. Some economic data due out this week including retail sales on Wednesday. Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A day of indecision for the market as the Dow gained 131 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. the summation index is moving lower. A mixed bag today as the NASDAQ was down. The market was up and down during the session as neither the bulls or the bears could take hold. The S&P 500 continues to hold its 50 day moving average and that is a plus. Option expiration week is on tap and that usually has a bullish bias. But we really don't know for sure which way it's going to go. Even if we rally on Monday there's a chance that a bearish flag is being formed before we take out the recent lows. That's just a guess on my part as it hasn't happened yet but the NASDAQ is leading the way and it remains negative. GE was off a nickel on average volume. The gold futures were off $5. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU fell two points, while GDX lost 3/8. Volume was light. With just a week to go I'm still considering the GDX September calls but the risk would be pretty high. Especially if the market decides to continue its fall. I'm also looking out to the October calls here. I suppose that I'll look things over this weekend and take it from there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was down today even though prices didn't finish with decent gains. Getting close now to the 50 day moving average. The short term indicators have rolled over, are moving down but aren't yet oversold. The weekly chart here appears bullish but that could change. Expiration week complicates things but there should be a decent trade out there if I can find it. The option premiums do remain pretty high though. This week will suck out lots of built in time premium as well. So the timing of any trade will have to be spot on because time will not be on your side. I'll go over all the charts this weekend as usual. Hopefully I'll come up with something. Europe and Asia were mixed to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the downside as the Dow fell 405 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. Once again the NASDAQ led the way down and that is not a good sign it you're bullish. Many of the stock indices are right above their 50 day moving averages. Tomorrow will be pretty important if things don't hold in here. I do think that we're heading lower but would like a chance to get some SPY September puts. It doesn't look like I'll get that chance though. We are oversold on some of the short term indicators but in extended declines we simply stay that way. GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was good. Gold was off a few bucks and fell back from the highs of the session. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU dropped 2 1/2, while GDX shed over 3/4. Volume was light. I'm still looking at the GDX calls as the next trade. Not exactly sure which way to go now because if the market takes a big drop, the gold shares will probably go with it. The short term technical signals are not clearly in a buy or sell mode either. However the Bollinger bands are very tight so you can be sure we are about to see some type of decent price movement in the GDX very soon. I would like to be on the right side of whatever occurs. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today and is above the 200 day moving average. At this rate is doesn't look like we'll make it down to the 50 day. If that's the case expect a decline for stocks in the coming days. But we're just guessing what will happen at this stage in my view. The market will show us the way and I think tomorrow will go a long way as to what to expect here. A down session will put us at new lows for the move and make it two weeks in a row of selling. An up session will give the bulls hope that the recent sell off is just a consolidation instead of an extended decline. My thinking remains that we're heading lower, if not tomorrow then as we move along in time. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll complete the shortened trading week tomorrow.

Got a bounce today as the Dow gained 439 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading down. The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a plus for the bulls. However questions remain as the market did sell off in the final half hour. Has the decline ended and now it's back to rally mode? I don't think so but the market does go where it wants. Any trade from here on out in the September option cycle will be tricky. Obviously with the elevated volatility things can go right or wrong in a hurry. Nimble would be the word to describe how you have to trade things from here. I still favor the put side of things for now but I could be wrong. We will get some economic data in the next couple of sessions including inflation numbers. But I think that the market will be influenced more by its own price movement versus any data coming out. GE was up a couple cents on heavy volume. Gold rose around $20 on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU climbed 6 3/4, while GDX added 1 3/4. Volume was about average. My GDX call order wasn't filled and this is another opportunity missed for now. I'm inclined to chase this move higher in the gold shares though. The contracting Bollinger bands here mean that the rally here has room to grow. The outperformance of the gold shares versus gold is another indicator of a plus for the long side now. I'll be keeping an eye on the October GDX calls. Septembers may be a little too risky now considering that GDX has already gained over 2 1/2 points from the low yesterday morning. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved lower today with the rise in prices and that makes sense for a change. The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the VIX. My trading idea here is to purchase some SPY September puts when the VIX gets back to its 50 day moving average. It's plenty risky though as it would take longer for the other indicators to give clear signals. There's also a possibility that the decline has been quick and already run its course. I don't think so but we have to consider the possibility. So the trading is never easy. I'll look things over again tonight and take it from there. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The sell off continues as the Dow fell 632 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way down. I am looking and hoping for some kind of near term bounce in order to try the SPY September puts but it appears that opportunity has passed. Getting short term oversold but not completely there yet. The 50 day moving average at 3300 on the S&P should provide some near term support. If not, 3200 looks like the next level. It has been quite a drop in just three days so I suspect that some buying should come in soon. Tech led the way up and it's leading the way down. GE lost over 1/4 on heavy volume. Gold was up a few bucks and came off of the lows for the session. The US dollar was higher as I think we're beginning to see a flight to safety. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed around 1/4. Volume was light. I did place an open order for some GDX September calls and I'm leaving it out there. Only eight days left in the September option cycle, so this is a risky venture. We'll see if it gets filled and take it from there. GDX isn't yet completely short term oversold but we did almost hit the lower Bollinger band today. The contracting bands also imply something big brewing and my guess for now is that it will be to the upside. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only up a little today despite the huge decline in the indexes. Once again this indicator is not acting the way it normally does. More overbought than oversold here but that doesn't mean that stocks can't go lower from here. They probably will as we haven't seen any buyers step up to the plate despite the recent losses. The NASDAQ has lost around 10% in a hurry. The overall nature of the market has gone from buying any decline to simply selling in a matter of days. The weekly stock index charts have plenty of room to move lower. The summation index is moving down. So we are just going to have to wait and see what transpires as we go through the month of September. I'm willing to try the gold shares here but if this trade doesn't work out I'm just as willing to move out to the October option cycle as well. GLD is short term oversold here and SLV is getting there as well. Throw in a stock market decline and we should start to see buyers in this area going forward. That's my best guess at the moment. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A down day to end the week but it wasn't as bad as it could have been.  We did have a sharp sell off early on but the market fought back and the Dow finished with a loss of 159 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The Dow was off over 600 early on.  Quite a week to start the month of September and there will probably be some more surprises along the way.  The jobs report was a bit better than expected but it took a back seat to the overall stock market action.  At least we now know the game has changed and I'll be looking to play the short side on the SPY trades near term.  Volatility has elevated and it probably won't settle down immediately.  I'll check things out this long weekend and go from there.  GE was up a dime on good volume.  The gold futures were slightly higher and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU was off 1 1/3, while GDX was down 3/8.  Volume was average.  Once again the gold shares sold off and then came back to form another hammer on the daily candlestick chart today.  I did place an order for the GDX September calls but it wasn't filled.  Not oversold yet on a short term basis for the gold shares.  Only nine days left in the September option cycle.  My concern here is that the gold shares move sideways as they have been.  That would not help taking a trade on here either way.  We didn't see a flight to gold with the decline and that's a cause for concern as well for the long side.  I may have to go out to the October option cycle for this idea.  I'll know more after this weekend s research.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit out of sorts.  Can't put my finger on it but probably has to do with missing the SPY September put idea.  Although I do think that one still has a chance to work again depending on market price action.  The VIX had a burst up but then turned around and closed lower on the session.  The short term indicators here have now rolled over.  Could mean a short term end of the decline.  But it does appear that some damage has been done to the technical picture on some of the stock index charts.  We'll see if the market can regroup next week.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to come up with a strategy for next week.  Europe and Asia were lower to finish the trading week overseas.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

What goes up must come down as they say.  The Dow got clobbered today and fell 807 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving lower.  The NASDAQ lost 5% in a day.  It had been moving straight up and that cannot last indefinitely as todays proved once again.  None of my SPY September put orders got filled in the past couple of days so it was another missed opportunity for me.  In hindsight, yesterday was a speculative blow off to the upside.  Now the question is how low can we go?  There is support for the S&P at 3400 to start.  If that doesn't hold there's the 50 day moving average at around 3300.  There's also solid support in my view at 3200-3250.  Only time will tell which level stops the decline.  Could today just be a one day wonder?  Anything is possible in this game but I do think that we're headed lower from here.  GE was only off 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold dropped ten bucks and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU was down 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was light.  GDX is holding above its 50 day moving average but isn't short term oversold yet.  That said, I'll probably be putting in an order for the September calls here overnight.  The Bollinger bands for GDX are contracting which implies a big move ahead and the daily candlestick chart shows a couple of hammers in the past two sessions.  Of course things could change tomorrow but for now I'm looking at the calls.  We may also see a flight to safety on the markets huge drop.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX took off and reached above the 35 level today.  Overbought and still there on the short term indicators here.  That implies more volatility down the road.  I'm not sure just how crazy things will get but if today is an example then be prepared for anything.  I'm looking for lower stock prices going forward.  However there's also a possibility that we see a sideways market for a while as the overbought technical conditions get worn off.  There is plenty of room on the technical indicators for the major averages to move lower.  Whether or not price joins them is what we'll find out.  I think that price will but I am wrong quite often as well.  For now I'll be back to keeping an eye on the GDX calls and hope to purchase some soon.  I also cannot rule out the SPY October puts if we get a short term overbought signal again.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll get the jobs report tomorrow ahead of a holiday weekend.  Should be interesting.

It's quite a ride to the upside as the Dow gained 454 points on heavier volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  This should put the summation index sideways.  We are as overbought as it ever gets here.  But you can't fight the tape.  No sellers around but we're at extremes.  I canceled my open order for the SPY September puts but moved to a higher strike price and put another order in.  The S&P 500 is moving straight up but the put options are not losing their value in the same progression.  I can't remember when I've seen such crazy option pricing.  However the market always knows more than we do.  I also know that when things start going straight up, they usually come straight back down.  The question is when?  GE was up 1/4 on good volume.  Gold fell as the US dollar rose.  The precious metal futures were off $25.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on the session and finished well off of their lows.  Volume was light.  The gold shares benefited from the overall bullish tone for stocks today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was up today despite a huge rally in the market.  It remains short term overbought and I certainly cannot figure out what is going on here.  The VIX did correctly predict a big move coming for stocks and it was to the upside.  I'm now at a loss as to how to figure out what the recent chart action means here.  I suppose a lower VIX would go along with higher stock prices but now the VIX is rising with higher stock prices.  I'll keep an eye on it but won't use it to time anything here.  My thinking is that the Dow will be hitting new a time highs soon, following the NASDAQ and the S&P 500.  Should I wait until that happens to try the SPY September puts?  That's what I'm considering at the moment.  The only thing that I know for sure right now is that the market is out of control.  It usually occurs to the downside and I am more used to that.  How far can we go up?  Longer than you can stay solvent is the general consensus.  I also still have my eye on the GDX calls if we get back down to oversold there.  My guess is that once this burst to the upside has ended I'll get the chance at the GDX calls.  We'll see.  For now I'll reconsider this SPY put idea again tonight when I go over all the charts.  Europe and Asia were up overnight as the worldwide flow of funds continues.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The climb higher continues as the Dow added 215 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The overall market fared better than the Dow with the NASDAQ up over 150 points.  The rally is relentless as the short term overbought condition remains.  I've still got my open order for the SPY September puts out there.  But at the rate things are going this looks to be the wrong idea.  I am noticing that the puts are not losing as much value on the gains in the market now.  Not sure what that means.  Record highs for some indices on a daily basis.  GE dropped over 1/8 and the volume was pretty good.  Gold finished the day little changed.  The US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX shed over 1/2.  Volume was light.  I still like the GDX calls on a trip back to oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was just a bit lower as it hangs around its 50 day moving average.  The contracting Bollinger bands here sparked a rise in the VIX but without the corresponding drop in equity prices.  Again, I don't exactly now what the implications of that are.  But I will say that when things start to simply go up in a straight line, as they are for the NASDAQ, it usually doesn't end well.  We saw this recently with the price of gold.  Now the decline may not last long but it is generally sharp and quick.  However trying to guess when this will happen has led more traders to losses than gains in my opinion.  That doesn't mean that we won't try though.  Usually when the equity prices move and the options don't move with them, it's because players are willing to pay up to be on the opposite side.  In general that side usually knows what it's doing.  The market goes where it wants though and there is nothing in the way of higher prices yet to come.  I'll reconsider leaving out the SPY put order that I have tonight.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.