We ended July on a positive note as the Dow rose 144 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Once again the overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way.  The market opened higher, then sold off rapidly to spend much of the day in negative territory.  The final hour saw buyers step up to the plate in a big way to turn the day positive.  It looks like the market wants to higher although still overbought.  I am still looking at the SPY August calls though.  I'll see how I feel after looking at things this weekend.  GE continued lower on heavy volume.  Another 20 cents down.  Oversold here but if it breaks $5.50 I'd say that this stock would be in trouble.  Gold continues to shine as the August futures gained twenty five bucks despite a rise in the US dollar.  The XAU was up 4 1/4, while GDX added 1 1/3.  Volume was light.  Perhaps yesterday was the opportunity to purchase the August calls here as any selling is still being met by buyers.  The option premiums remain elevated and that has me waiting for now.  But the up trend here is pretty strong and you cannot deny that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX bounced around today and remains oversold.  The daily chart has the look of something that wants to go lower.  The Bollinger bands on the S&P 500 continue to contract and on the daily chart here it looks like an impending breakout to the upside will occur.  I know that sounds a little crazy with the ugly economy and the ever present pandemic virus but that's what it looks like.  I still have an order out for the August SRNE calls but that stock keeps going up.  It doesn't appear that the order will get filled.  It will take some decline for that to happen.  I will check the exact date for the earnings announcement and FDA result because I do not want the order out there if it isn't filled when that date happens.  Otherwise I'll be trying to come up with something over the weekend when I'm checking all the charts.  Three weeks to go in the August option cycle and that's plenty of time for profits.  The S&P looks like it is about to break to post crash highs, while gold continues its rally unabated.  Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week overseas.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We had a big sell off early but the market spent the rest of the day trying to recover.  The most watched index fell 224 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is back to sideways.  Once again the overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the green.  The GDP report came in about where expected.  I did place an overnight order for some SPY August puts but it wasn't filled.  I may look to do this trade next week.  Big tech reports after the bell today and that should set the tone for early tomorrow.  We've got the end of the month on Friday also.  I'm looking at the puts but the market has had chances to sell off this week but hasn't.  Perhaps the bulls are ready to take charge.  I'm still leaning bearish though.  GE was off another 1/3 and the volume was pretty heavy again.  Gold took a breather as the August futures dropped twenty bucks.  The US dollar continues its free fall.  The XAU shed about 5 1/2, while GDX lost 1 1/2.  Volume was about average.  I still like the GDX August calls and will try to get some ahead of the earnings from GOLD and others that are due out in the beginning of next month.  The short term technical indicators for GDX have rolled over.  I don't expect a huge scale drop for the gold shares but at least some pause in the rally near term.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a pop and a drop today and remains oversold.  The early decline at the open never got legs and that was reflected in the VIX.  Probably the best course of action for me will be to let the month of July end and take things from there.  I did place an order for some calls in SRNE, which is another one of the pandemic virus plays.  It hasn't been filled so I left it open.  The other pandemic play that I was looking at, HOLX, did report earnings after the bell and the stock did have a nice move higher today.  SRNE will report in the second week of August.  However this stock doesn't have any earnings but will be reporting a FDA ruling on that day.  A favorable ruling should send the stock higher.  It did have a nice move up today and I may be too late for this idea.  Once again, the risk is higher with individual stocks than it is for the indexes as one bad piece of news can quickly change the picture if you're long.  But that is part of the game when trading options.  There is more option liquidity with SRNE vs. HOLX and that's at least a plus.  The pandemic virus also isn't going away anytime soon.  Asia was lower and Europe had a rough session overnight.  We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

We got the Fed out of the way and it pretty much went as expected.  The Dow rose 160 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  No change in interest rates for a far as the eye can see.  Well, they are about as low as they can go.  The market was up from the start as yesterdays late day sell off was not a sign of things to come.  We'll see how the market reacts to tomorrows 2nd quarter GDP report.  It will be the worst on record according to forecasts.  My guess is that it won't be as bad as anticipated.  Stock indices remain overbought and closing in on their upper Bollinger bands.  I'm considering the SPY August puts as the next trade.  I do not see a rally to new all time highs for the S&P right now.  I could be wrong but the macro environment in my view doesn't even support where we are right now.  GE dropped 1/3 on heavy volume.  Gold continues to shine as the August futures were up over ten bucks.  The US dollar continues to fall with no end in sight.  The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was average.  The gold shares are beginning to move sideways for a much needed rest.  I still like the calls here on a drop.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The VIX continues lower and continues to be oversold.  For now it is implying less volatility and more gains for stocks.  I can't really argue with that.  It now looks like perhaps I'll just have to let this week pass, get the end of the month over and go from there.  I am tempted though to leave in an overnight order for the SPY August puts.  I should not argue with price and for now things are pointing up.  If we reach the upper Bollinger band in the S&P, then I'll have something to think about.  I did miss an opportunity in a stock HOLX which makes tests for the pandemic virus.  I was looking at the calls there but the stock kept moving up and I did not want to keep raising the strike price of the options.  There also was not a lot of liquidity in the options market for this issue.  Nonetheless it would have been an earnings play and they were due out today.  It looks like it is moving up in the after hours market.  Perhaps I'll pay better attention when the next earnings are due in three months.  Or maybe the chance at a decent trade here just passed.  I'm not a big fan of trading options on individual stocks but I suppose that sometimes it pays to take that chance.  Food for thought.  Europe and Asia were mixed last night.  We'll wait and see the reaction to the GDP report tomorrow.

The market declined in the final hour today and the Dow had a loss of 205 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Just waiting on the Fed here is what it feels like.  I'm not sure what the fed can say that will get things going higher but you never know.  Contracting Bollinger bands do portend that something is about to happen in a big way.  Indices are moving sideways but is it a topping process or consolidation before hitting new post February crash highs for the S&P?  There's still plenty of time in the August option cycle for profits one way or the other.  I'm still leaning towards the downside as I'm betting against the quickest bear market in S&P 500 history.  I could be wrong.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was a little better.  Gold had a wild ride overnight and the futures finished with a gain of over $10.  The US dollar ended little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on what passes now as average volume.  I'm looking at both the puts and the calls here.  Money continues to pour into gold but it cannot keep going straight up forever.  Last nights swing between $1900 and $1980 on the futures was probably a warning sign that things are about to change.  Or not and that is the quandary that we find ourselves in when trading the markets.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX ticked higher with the final hour drop in equities.  We're still oversold on both a daily and weekly basis here.  I'm not exactly sure which way to go here so I'll probably just stay on the sidelines until things start to become clearer to me.  I would like to try the GDX August puts ahead of the GDP report but the option premiums remain high.  Not to mention that gold seems to be on an unstoppable bull run as it has hit all time highs.  But we know that won't last forever.  The contraction Bollinger bands on the SPY are probably pointing to something.  I just don't know yet what that is.  Europe and Asia were slightly lower in last nights trade.  All eyes and ears on the Fed for Wednesday.

Gains to start the last week of July as the Dow rose 114 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trending sideways for now.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way.  Plenty on tap this week with the Fed on Wednesday and the first look at 2nd quarter GDP on Thursday.  The S&P remains more overbought than oversold.  The Bollinger bands are also starting to contract again.  I'm still leaning towards the SPY August puts but anything could happen this week.  GE was off over 1/8 on light volume.  Gold soared to a new all time closing high as the August futures gained $35.  The US dollar is in free fall which is leading to the rally in gold.  There's no support for the dollar and no resistance for gold.  Gold is starting to go straight up and we know how that will end.  The question is when and where.  The XAU gained 7 1/2, while GDX added another two points.  Volume was good.  I'm now looking at the GDX August puts for a short term trade but the entry point is the problem here.  I don't want to step in front of this move up in GDX but I also know it won't last forever and the decline can be just as swift.  If we continue higher into the Fed meeting I may try the puts on Wednesday before the close.  Very overbought for the gold shares.  I'm also not immune to trying the GDX August calls if we do get a sharp drop between now and expiration.  So it is a pretty fluid situation for the gold shares at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower today and the Bollinger bands are starting to contract here as well.  Still oversold here but not extremely so.  The market is setting up for something or so it seems.  Are we going to run things up into the end of the month?  What will the Fed have to say?  I'm sure they won't be doing anything to upset the market.  Could there be an upside surprise coming out of there?  How bad will the 2nd quarter GDP look and how will the markets react to it?  Plenty of questions to be answered this week and many trading opportunities out there in my mind.  I'm not exactly sure which way I'll go but I'm certainly ready to do something.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A bit of some downside follow through as the Dow fell 182 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving sideways.  Could the market actually be on its way to rolling over here.  It's entirely possible.  What is also entirely possible is that we rally with the Fed next week.  I certainly don't know what will happen.  The technical picture is now mixed which leads to my indecision here.  I'm going to have to try and sort things out over the weekend.  The light volume could be a cause for concern if you're bullish.  The market needs energy to drive it higher.  GE was off over !/8 and the volume was light.  Gold continues its impressive run and closed above $1900.  New all time highs will probably come next week.  The US dollar continues to drop and has been supportive to gold for weeks.  The XAU added 4 1/4, while GDX was up 7/8.  Volume was light.  Any selling in the gold shares is immediately met with buyers.  This won't last forever but it is certainly the case for now.  I still like the GDX August calls but cannot find a spot to buy them.  Perhaps will get a chance if the overall market starts to drop in an extended decline.  That may just be wishful thinking as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX still remains below its 200 day moving average.  It had a pop and a drop today.  The medium term technical indicators for most of the major stock averages are still overbought and have plenty of room to fall.  They could also continue to remain overbought as well.  Two down sessions are not a trend.  We have a lot to get through next week, highlighted by the Fed announcement on Wednesday followed by the first look at 2nd quarter GDP on Thursday.  These events will be market movers in my opinion.  Throw in a possible agreement on the next coronavirus stimulus package and you can see that it shapes up to be an interesting week.  I'll be going over the charts this weekend to try and come up with some type of game plan going forward.  Obviously it won't be easy.  Asia was lower overnight.  Europe took a bigger hit as well.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow lost some ground for a change as it fell 353 points on OK volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still grinding higher.  The NASDAQ led the way down today.  It appears that the short term technical indicators there have now apparently rolled over.  It looks like the negative RSI divergence could actually be real there for a change.  We'll see if we get some follow through downside tomorrow.  That would really tell the story that we're in for a pause.  No new news out there today to drive things lower except that unemployment claims ticked up a little.  The pandemic virus remains.  I'm going to let tomorrow go by and take it from there.  GE was flat and the volume was light.  Gold continues to soar and is almost at an all time record.  The August futures gained a dozen but did fall from their intra-day highs.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU lost 3 1/2, while GDX shed 3/4.  Volume was average.  The gold shares falling while gold itself has a nice rally is a warning sign for the bulls in my opinion.  I am looking to purchase some GDX August calls on a pullback and today could be the start of that.  We also have the factor of the potential drop in equities taking the gold stocks with it, if that actually occurs.  So as usual the trading won't be a slam dunk.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX went higher today but still finished below its 200 day moving average.  The short term indicators here are trying to turn up.  We'll know more tomorrow if we see more rise in the VIX.  I'm kind of stuck in the middle for right now.  I'm not sure if this is just a one day pause for stocks or the beginning of something bigger.  Tomorrow could have a lot to say about what's going on at the moment.  My thought remains the same with regards to this week.  Let it go and get ready for the Fed and the GDP first look next week.  The extra week in the August option cycle gives you the luxury of taking your time for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The market continues to move higher as the Dow gained 165 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is now moving higher.  The Dow led the way today.  All the major stock indices are overbought with no end to the rally in sight.  Perhaps we'll see a run up until the end of July before something else happens in August.  Or maybe the market will just keep going higher.  We certainly aren't paying attention to the underlying economic conditions as the pandemic virus continues to drive the economy.  There's simply plenty of money around looking for a home.  With another US stimulus package on the horizon it appears long is the only way to go.  GE was up a couple cents on average volume.  Gold is now moving straight up along with silver.  The August gold futures rose $24 as the US dollar was lower once again.  The XAU gained 3 1/3, while GDX climbed over 3/4.  Volume was average.  It is too late to chase the August calls here for now.  If we see a drop back to the up trend line then I might try the calls here.  GDX is overbought on the short and medium term timeframes.  I do think that gold is on its way to a new all time high but do not want to chase the gold shares here.  The ideal time to purchase the August GDX calls has obviously passed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower and the movement downwards here supports the ongoing rally.  The character of this indicators has changed and we will have to change with it.  The stock markets are in rally mode and the only way to trade it is from the long side regardless of what you might think or think you see.  There may be a time in the August option cycle for the SPY puts but that time is not now.  I'm still in the camp of letting this week pass and taking it from there.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 159 points on what now passes for light volume.  The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is basically moving sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the red.  Not much on the economic data front but we will get some on Thursday.  The major indices remain short term overbought.  Waiting on the details of another coronavirus bailout package form Congress.  There is a potential negative RSI divergence for the NASDAQ but it hasn't manifested itself just yet.  The trend remains higher as liquidity abounds for now.  GE was up over 1/8 on what now might pass for average volume.  Gold continues its ascent as the August futures climbed over twenty bucks.  The US dollar continues to drop.  The XAU added 2 1/4, while GDX was up 1/2.  Volume was average.  The gold shares are overdue for a rest in my humble opinion but they continue to climb higher.  They did underperform the precious metal today so perhaps a stall in the uptrend is coming.  I still like the GDX August calls on a pullback.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues to hug the lower Bollinger band and remain below its 200 day moving average.  The touching of the lower Bollinger band sell signal that has been in effect looks like it is over.  I'd keep an eye on the NASDAQ here because it led the way up but was the weakest group today.  If it rolls over tomorrow the potential negative divergence could be for real.  But it could just as easily rally back up to new all time highs as well.  It's something to watch.  No summer doldrums so far this year.  It looks like I'm going to try and let this week pass on by before attempting another trade.  Depending on what happens for the rest of the week from here of course.  Europe and Asia were higher as money flows seem to be plentiful around the world.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Dow did have a one day reversal to the upside as it opened lower and closed higher.  It managed to gain 8 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were negative though.  The summation index is moving higher but at a grinding pace.  The overall market was very much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ up over 250 points.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal on Friday for a big move within the next two trading days.  We saw it in the overall market today but not in the Dow.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.  I'm going to have to consider that my negative prognosis for the market is wrong with the nice moves higher today for the S&P and the NASDAQ.  The negative breadth though is puzzling to be sure.  GE was off twenty cents on light volume.  Gold continues to climb as the August futures were up eight bucks.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU added 4 1/8, while GDX gained a point.  Volume was light as it has been.  There appears to be no stopping the gold shares as there are no sellers and what little selling that occurs is met with buyers.  I still would like to purchase some GDX August calls at some point.  Overbought to be sure for the gold indices and staying that way.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX dropped today and touched its lower Bollinger band.  It also made it below its 50 week moving average.  That is the first time that's happened since the huge rally that began in February for the VIX.  What exactly that means going forward I certainly don't know.  I do know that touching that lower Bollinger band has been a short term sell signal for the market lately.  The SPY put option premiums were just too high for me today or I would have tried the August puts here.  I'm aware that things could go south here but I'm also aware that the NASDAQ is leading the way higher here and that is usually bullish.  With plenty of time in the August option cycle there's no rush to put on a trade as well.  We'll know more as the week unfolds.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A mixed bag to finish the week as the Dow fell 62 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is grinding higher.  Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were in the black.  To me it feels as though the market is running out of stream here as the volume just hasn't been what it was.  But that could be because of the fact that we're in summer trading mode.  Most of the short term technical indicators are overbought for the major stock indices.  I'm sticking with a bearish leaning for now going forward.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light.  Gold bounced back $15 on the August futures as the US dollar continues to drop.  The XAU gained 4 1/4, while GDX added 1 1/4.  Volume remains light here.  Any selling in the gold shares has been met by buyers.  I still like the GDX August calls on a drop despite the continuing overbought technical conditions.  Gold continues to attract money and nothing has stopped that for months.  At some point there will be a reversal but I don't see that happening anytime soon.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A bit miffed at missing out on the GDX July calls.  But we'll roll on to August.  The VIX closed below its 200 day moving average and is about to touch its lower Bollinger band.  That along with the overbought status of the market would be the logical spot to attempt the SPY August puts.  Unfortunately the premiums are very high just rolling into the August cycle which has an extra week on it.  However I am still considering it because this signal has worked at least on a short term basis for the past 3 out of 4 times.  It is something to consider over the weekend.  Next week is a light week for economic data but earnings season remains in full swing.  Ideally I'd like to let next week pass but the market doesn't usually cooperate.  We are also still at the mercy of the pandemic virus and whatever headlines come out of that.  Haven't seen the summer doldrums in the market yet.  I'll go over the charts this weekend and try to come up with some ideas for next week.  Europe and Asia were mixed to finish out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The day started with a gap lower and we simply traded sideways for the rest of the session.  The Dow fell 135 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index did turn around an is now trending higher.  The economic data was a bit better than expected today.  The pandemic virus has not gone away.  Hard for me to say what's driving things here.  The S&P is still short term overbought and we have options expiration tomorrow.  I suppose I'm still in the camp for a negative resolution to what is going on in the equity markets.  There seems to be plenty of liquidity still but the volume hasn't been all that heavy lately.  I'm guessing that between now and the August expiration that we'll see a sustained down trend.  GE was off almost a dime but the volume was very light.  Gold dropped $18 on the August futures and closed below $1800.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX shed over 1/2.  Volume was very light here.  The plus is that the gold shares did not fare as badly as the metal itself although they still remain overbought.  I am looking at the GDX August calls as the next trade unless there is a good signal for SPY.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX didn't do much today and is still above its 200 day moving average.  It is getting back to oversold on a short term basis.  The problem with trading from here is the extended premiums in the August cycle due to the extra week in them.  It behooves you to be patient for now but if a decent signal appears you have to be prepared to pay more than you want to enter a trade.  My guess is that volatility is going to ramp up here soon and that will increase the option premiums as well.  Hasn't happened yet and I am wrong with my prognosis about as much as I am right.  For now I'll let tomorrow pass and then take it from there.  Europe and Asia were both down in last nights trade.  We'll see how the options expiration Friday goes tomorrow. 

We had a gap to the upside today as the Dow tacked on another 227 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  We have now moved above the declining tops line form February in the S&P.  The volume hasn't exactly been great but you can't argue with price.  It now appears that the big forecast move in the market could be higher.  That certainly wasn't what I expected but it is not a good idea to argue with the market.  We'll know more as the week progresses as to whether the rise is expiration week related or the start of a summer rally.  Some of the big cap tech stocks are starting to get tired and that could provide some headwinds to whatever rise that occurs.  Of course we could be down hard tomorrow and that would change the picture.  GE was up 1/4 on better volume.  Gold was slightly higher and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  I did not attempt the GDX July calls today but it looks like that idea would have worked with a proper entry.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out.  I am still looking at the GDX August calls as potentially the next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower today as we're heading back down to the 200 day moving average and the lower Bollinger band.  That has been the spot to try the SPY puts but with only two days left in the July option cycle I think the prudent course of action would be inaction.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.  But I probably should just be thankful for whatever I got out of Mondays trade and move on.  Even though that trade wasn't managed properly again at least it showed a profit.  We're in earnings season and I am looking at specific stocks to potentially trade the options in.  I have yet to find something that looks promising though and it is out of my normal comfort zone of trading the indexes.  Risk of course is higher with just one stock because there are a multitude of things that can go wrong there.  But I am looking.  Europe and Asia were higher last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Today we opened lower and closed higher for a one day reversal back to the upside.  The Dow led the way and climbed 556 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still trending lower but trying to turn around here once again.  I guess we're still waiting to see which way things will go here, with a big move projected by the contracting Bollinger bands.  I did sell my SPY July puts but could have done much better on the exit.  I simply put in a stop loss order as prices moved around this morning and eventually it was hit.  The gain was 150% but could have been much better if I just gotten out earlier.  My thinking was that yesterday could have been the beginning of a huge move lower.  It wasn't for now.  However with the Dow leading the way here, that is usually the characteristic of it being late in the rally.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume remains light.  Gold was up around eight bucks on the August futures after being lower early.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The gold shares shined with the XAU gaining over 5 3/4, while GDX added 1 1/2.  Volume remains light here.  I am considering getting some GDX July calls with only 3 days to go in this option cycle.  The short term indicators are turning back up and this has happened the past few times during expiration week.  Obviously the ideal time to buy them was this morning but I was too busy with the SPY trade.  Just was not quick enough to recognize the opportunity.  However it may still be there if we see some weakness in the gold shares early tomorrow morning.  It's something that I'm thinking about but the risk would be even higher than the last trade.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated again.  I really should have just dumped the SPY puts early this morning.  When the market is dropping the option prices change very fast and I was not up to the task.  Had I been able to do that I could have rolled over to trade the GDX calls.  The VIX turned around today and appears to be heading back down to the 200 day moving average and the lower Bollinger band.  We'll see how that plays itself out.  Otherwise I am also looking at the GDX August calls as a possible next trade but the options are pricey with an extra week in them.  So far July has not played out as I had though with no summer doldrums slow down so far.  At any rate we're still on the lookout for some kind of big trending move coming soon.  Asia was lower and Europe generally lower overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

It was a mixed bag today on Wall street as the Dow gained 10 points on good volume.  The Dow was up well over 500 during the session.  The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  It was a one day reversal to the downside for both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500.  The same can be said for the other major averages as well.  Perhaps the market was simply getting a little ahead of itself here as there were no major news events.  I did place an order for the SPY July puts early in the morning and it was eventually filled.  The entry timing was pretty good for a change.  This trade is already showing a nice profit.  With only four days to go in the July option cycle, I should probably get rid of it if we see some follow through selling tomorrow.  However the contraction of the Bollinger bands does imply that a big move is coming and now perhaps it will be to the downside.  The trading is never easy.  GE was flat on the session and the volume remains on the light side.  Gold gained three bucks on the August futures but was higher during the day.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU fell 4 2/3, while GDX lost 1 1/4.  Volume remains muted here.  I certainly would like to try the GDX calls again but will probably go out to the August option cycle which has an extra week in it.  I do not expect a big drop here for gold but if the market starts to tank it will probably take the gold shares with it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  the VIX spiked about 5 points today on the intra-day reversal in the stock market.  The short term technical indicators have turned up here and are not close to being overbought.  The indicators for the VIX move quickly and only seem to slow down when the market rallies.  The upper Bollinger band here is four points away and another day like today will get us there.  The S&P today did break above the down trend line that began in February but the volume was light.  It turned out to be a false breakout as prices then turned around and closed back below the line.  Of course a very positive day tomorrow could reverse things back again.  It is a very interesting game.  There were plenty of downside reversals in key stocks today.  We'll find out in the coming days if they were real or not.  The volume today increased to the downside and that is not a positive.  I'll go over things tonight and try to come up with a game plan for tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see if they follow the US lower tomorrow. 

It's been a back and forth week for the Dow as it gained 369 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still trending down.  Nothing else has changed here as the major averages remain short term overbought.  The S&P 500 is trending along the declining tops line from the end of February.  I did place an order for some SPY July puts but it wasn't filled.  We are almost to the top of the Bollinger band for the SPY here.  As I have already stated this week, the bands are contracting and there will be a big move soon.  Really, things could go either way.  The usual positive options expiration bias could take things much higher.  Or we could roll over here and have a decent drop.  I'm going to have to make up my mind over the weekend but I have been leaning towards the bearish side.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was off five bucks on the August futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  My other idea for next week are the GDX July calls with only a week to go for the options.  The up trend line remains intact for GDX along with its perpetual overbought status.  Even when there is some selling here there certainly isn't a lot of it as traders seem to want to hold on for the longer term.  I can't argue with that.  It's something else to look at this weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX dropped two points today and any follow through buying on Monday morning should have it touching the lower Bollinger band and setting up the sell signal.  It could very well be worth taking the risk.  I'll ponder this over the weekend.  I also still believe that the market could shoot through the downtrend line that's currently in place as it remains overbought.  There isn't what I would exactly call a clear cut signal.  So it is with the markets.  I'll do the work over the weekend and try to come up with the right decision.  I do anticipate a big move one way or the other next week for the stock market.  The opportunity for profit will be there.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

The Dow fell 361 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving lower.  The overall market fared better than the Dow, with the NASDAQ sporting a gain.  The markets were much lower in the morning but managed to come back.  My open order for the SPY July puts was not filled.  I'm now wondering if perhaps the market is preparing to take off to the upside.  It has had plenty of chances to sell off here and keeps coming back.  We are still overbought though.  One thing for sure is that the Bollinger bands are really pinching together and that implies something big on the horizon.  Which way is the question.  Six days left in the July option cycle so the risk is high.  But the potential to make a lot in a little time is out there.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume remains light.  Gold took a breather as the futures shed almost ten bucks.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on what passes now as average volume.  They finished well off of their lows for the session.  I'm considering trying the calls here again before the July expiration as well.  However I may have missed that opportunity today as I have for the past two weeks.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX touched its 200 day moving average again before finishing higher for the day.  The short term technical indicators here are not completely oversold anymore but they are far from overbought.  The down trend line resistance for the S&P is still intact.  An upside breakout there on good volume will change my short term bearish outlook here.  But that hasn't happened yet.  We are approaching options expiration week which usually has an upside bias.  The summation index is pointing down though and that shouldn't be ignored.  We also have the NASDAQ still leading the way higher and that is positive sign.  Mixed messages to be sure but one side will eventually take control.  I'll consider my options tonight.  Asia was higher and Europe lower yesterday.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.    

The market bounced back today with a nice gain in the final hour as the Dow rose 177 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is now tracking sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The Bollinger bands are contracting on the S&P 500, which will most likely lead to a big move coming soon.  We are also on the verge of breaking through a declining tops line that began at the end of February.  But we haven't gotten through it yet.  We are short term overbought on the S&P, so things could go either way.  The leadership of the NASDAQ currently suggests that the move will be to the upside.  That said, I did place an open order for some SPY July puts today.  If we break through the declining trend line on good volume then I'll cancel the order.  GE was up a dime and the volume was light.  Gold continues to rally as the futures gained another ten bucks or so.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 3 2/3, while GDX gained 1 1/4.  Volume is still light here but it doesn't matter when there are no sellers.  Overbought and staying that was for the gold shares.  This obviously was a move that I should have chased a couple of weeks ago.  I do however still think that gold and the gold shares will continue to go higher.  However one of the reliable technical indicators that I use is as high as it gets for the gold shares here.  I would expect to see some sideways price action at the least in the next few days.  I will be looking to get some calls if we see a drop in GDX in the near future.  The July, August or September option contracts should prove profitable for the gold shares.  I appears to be a market that has no reason to sell.  I do not see any change in that condition anytime soon.  The precious metals also are a group that goes in extreme both up and down.  We're in the up phase there at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower today and if it continues for the next day or so it will be at the 200 day moving average and the lower Bollinger band at the same time.  This is one of the reasons that I'm going to risk trying the SPY July puts before the weekend.  Now it is entirely possible that the VIX breaks down through the 200 day moving average as it rallies above the recent down trend line.  If that occurs then the SPY put trade will be taken off.  So we will perhaps have the signal to do the trade but if it fails the trade will simply have to be exited.  That is what I'm looking at right now.  With only 7 days left in the July option cycle, obviously the risk is high.  So we'll see how it goes.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Well the market didn't wait until tomorrow as the Dow fell 396 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  This will turn the summation index back down after just turning up.  The Dow was the weakest of the major indices.  We were short term overbought and now that condition has been somewhat relieved for now.  Todays drop makes getting the puts down the road this week that much harder.  I still like that idea but with little time remaining in the July option cycle, any trade in the SPY from here is fraught with risk.  I'll be keeping a close eye on things but it may be that the put trade opportunity has passed.  GE was off 1/4 on light volume.  Gold continues its climb higher as the August futures were up $15 and closed above the $1800 level.  The US dollar was higher as well.  Not sure if it's a flight to safety but we'll know in the coming days.  The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was light and the gold shares remain overbought.  I should have chased this move earlier but I'm going to try and chase it now.  I have an open order in for some GDX July calls.  This probably isn't the smartest thing in the world to do but maybe if we get a pullback the order can get filled.  Not a lot of sellers for gold or the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The VIX was higher today and the short term technical indicators have already turned back up.  My hope is that they roll back down which would get me a chance to try the SPY July puts.  If not then we'll simply just move lower from here and the put trade for July will have been missed.  The game can get frustrating at times.  If the market does continue to head lower from here perhaps the GDX July call trade will get filled.  So I've got a couple of ideas out there with eight days to go in the July option cycle.  The market hasn't hit the summer doldrums as of yet.  The background of the pandemic virus remains the same.  Asia was lower with the exception of China which has taken off to the upside.  Europe was down.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The rally continues to begin the week as the Dow climbed 460 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should put the summation index back to moving higher.  Tech is leading the way and the NASDAQ is outperforming.  Short term overbought now for the major indices.  I am looking at the SPY July puts but think that probably Wednesday is the ideal time to purchase them if the rally continues.  Markets around the world are seeing big gains as liquidity beats all else for now.  The pandemic virus hasn't gone away and seems to be taking on a second life.  But you can't argue with price and it's moving up.  We'll have to see how the upcoming earnings season affects things going forward.  For now it's simply up, up and away.  GE was up 18 cents and the volume was light.  Not a lot of interest in owning this stock.  Gold continues its run higher, the August futures gained another five bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 2 1/2, while GDX rose 2/3.  Volume was light.  Overbought on the gold shares to be sure but there are no sellers at this point.  Less than 2 weeks to go in the July option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling OK after the long holiday weekend.  The VIX almost touched the lower Bollinger band today and actually finished a bit higher despite a decent rally.  Oversold to be sure and closed back above its 200 day moving average.  Would love to see it basically move sideways for a couple of days to try the SPY July puts.  I had plenty of time over the weekend to go over things.  The volume lately has been lacking.  I don't know if that's just a summer excuse or we're setting ourselves up for something lower in the near term.  I'm going with the latter.  There is also a chance that we could see a blow off top here for the July option cycle.  That would render trying the index puts useless.  I'm going to try and give this rally another day and if it keeps up, I'll definitely be looking at the puts.  The volume for the gold shares has been weak as well but they are on the cusp of setting a new recovery high.  Remaining overbought there again as well but that is the case during rallies.  If the market does drop later this week it may also take these shares with it.  That may present an opportunity to try the longer term calls there going out to August.  As always the market will do what it wants and rarely cooperates with the best laid plans.  Europe and Asia rallied overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.  

The Dow gained 92 points to finish the holiday shortened week on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now trying to turn around and has stopped falling for now.  The employment report came in better than expected and we had a gap up at the open.  Selling started a half hour later followed by sideways movement.  The market then dropped in the final hour.  The Dow was up well over 400 points during the session.  I'm considering getting some SPY July puts towards the end of next week if the market cooperates.  GE was up 8 cents and the volume was light.  Gold was up $9 on the futures after a mild early sell off.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU lost 1 5/8, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was light.  I did place an overnight order for some GDX July calls but canceled it during the session.  I do still like the idea of getting some gold share calls at some point in the near future.  But this group does remain short term overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was a bit lower and did manage to make it down to touch the 200 day moving average.  I did not buy the SPY puts though.  I would like to see it go down there again and have it hit the lower Bollinger band as well.  That could occur at some point next week and that would be the ideal time to try the SPY July puts.  We'll wait and see if it happens.  Despite todays gains the price action was not exactly bullish.  The S&P 500 is getting to the short term overbought condition and the volume on this rise has been anemic.  So the elements of putting on a SPY put trade are present.  It is just a matter of the timing next week.  There will be an extra day to plot the strategy over this longer weekend with the July 4th holiday.  I'll be taking a closer look at eh gold shares as well.  There will be exactly two weeks left in the July option cycle.  Europe and Asia were both higher in last nights trade.  It's Thursday afternoon in the summer.  Time for a break.  

A mixed bag to begin the month of July as the Dow dropped 78 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The overall market fared better than the Dow, with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ in the green.  The economic data today was mixed and the jobs report is due out tomorrow.  The short term technical indicators have turned up for the S&P.  Tomorrow could just end up being a light volume affair as the markets are closed on Friday for a long summer holiday weekend.  I'm still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY.  GE was off a dime and the volume was good.  Gold sold off early but then made a comeback.  The futures lost over $15.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses after being much lower early on.  Volume here remains on the light side.  I did consider putting in an open order for the GDX July calls overnight but did not.  Probably should have and may consider it again tonight.  All declines are being bought in the gold shares and that is pretty positive price action.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continued lower today and is getting more oversold.  It's at 28 and change, with the 200 day moving average at 26.  If it does get to 26, I'll be trying the SPY July puts.  That is the plan at the moment.  The light volume levitation that we're seeing in the stock market this week isn't that inspiring.  Ideally I'd like to see another light volume move higher tomorrow to set up getting the SPY puts at the beginning of next week.  The market rarely cooperates.  Gold itself now has a bearish dark cloud cover daily candlestick on the chart.  We'll see what transpires tomorrow.  The gold shares held up well today and that's a plus for the bulls.  But we are short term overbought there.  I suppose we'll wait and see the markets reaction to the employment report and take it from there.  But like I stated earlier this could be a muted effort from the market due to the long holiday weekend.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.