We had a splurge of buying at the end of the month and the Dow closed higher by 217 points on OK volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading lower but is trying to turn around.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  Nothing new from the Fed chairman today and the economic data was a little better than expected. The NASDAQ is leading the way higher here so perhaps the two day rally will have legs.  The volume is a concern as it hasn't exactly been heavy while moving up.  That could just be a factor of the summer season though.  The pandemic virus isn't going away anytime soon either.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold continues to outperform as the August futures hit $1800 today.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU gained almost 4 1/2, while GDX rose 1 1/8.  Volume was almost average.  Short term overbought now for the gold shares and I may try the GDX July calls on a pullback.  Volume has been weak here but there are not a lot of sellers on declines.  This looks like a move that I should have chased when it began with the breaking of the short term down trend line about a week and a half ago.  Hindsight is never wrong.  Perhaps if gold stalls at $1800 I'll get a chance.  But it is too risky just to buy some of the calls here with the indicators so overbought.  A little over two weeks left in the July option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is comfortably below its 50 day moving average and the indicators are reaching the oversold zone.  The 200 day moving average here stopped the previous rally recently and I'll look to that again if it gets down there.  Combine that with the oversold technical reading and we have the opportunity for the next SPY trade.  We're at least a few days form that happening, if it does.  But it's something to watch out for.  The S&P 500 did bounce off of its 200 day moving average and has acted better in the past couple of sessions.  We'll wait and see where tings go from here.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see how July starts out tomorrow.  

A positive session to begin the holiday shortened week as the Dow gained 580 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  The Dow was stronger than the overall market.  The Dow had a slight sell off early but then powered higher.  It traded sideways for most of the day and had a last hour rally to finish near the highs.  No real news to speak of.  The short term technical indicators are trying to turn up.  We've got the Fed chairman speaking again tomorrow and that could be a market mover.  End of the month and quarter tomorrow as well.  Jobs report on Thursday.  So there's plenty of excuses to move the market coming this week.  Today felt kind of sluggish despite the over 500 point gain.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume was light.  Gold and the US dollar had slight gains.  The XAU added 1 7/8, while GDX was up 1/3.  Volume was pretty light.  GDX remains short term overbought.  I'm trying to wait for some type of pullback here before attempting the calls again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed below its 50 day moving average as the back and forth here remains.  Perhaps this will lead to a rally into the holiday weekend.  That's a guess as usual.  The market hasn't had any conviction one way or the other lately.  As long as the summation index is heading lower I would think that any upside would be limited.  We are still in an uncertain pandemic virus environment.  I don't have any clear signal at the moment for any SPY trades.  I'm still just on the sidelines for now and probably the rest of the week.  We'll see if the Fed talk tomorrow has any market repercussions.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the end of the month and quarter movements.

Back and forth we go so today was to the downside as the Dow fell 730 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving down.  We'll take our cues from there.  The economic data was a bit better than expected but the pandemic virus fears are taking over the narrative.  States that reopened are pulling back and more cases are being reported.  The S&P 500 is oversold but not completely so.  The weekly chart is still overbought so we could be in for a long slog over the summer.  I'm still hoping for summer doldrums but my ideas have been pretty off lately.  GE was off a bout twenty cents and the volume was average.  Short term oversold here and staying that way.  Gold sold off early but then came roaring back to a gain of almost $10.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains to the upside on light volume.  Once again the gold shares are underperforming the precious metal and that isn't exactly bullish going forward.  I am still trying not to chase things here but I do think that the gold share calls are still a good idea.  If GDX can work off its overbought condition I'd be willing to give them a try.  GDX is both short and medium term overbought here though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was higher and is back above its 50 day moving average.  I have not been able to correctly read this indicator for weeks.  I suppose as long as it stays above its 200 day moving average, the odds favor more volatility.  That's my best guess at the moment but using the VIX to time the SPY trades has been futile for me lately.  The S&P 500 closed below its 200 day moving average to finish the week and looks like it wants to go lower.  The short term indicators aren't completely oversold yet.  We've got two days left in the month and quarter so we will see how the money managers want to sort things out.  The extra heavy volume today says to me that perhaps they did what they were going to do today and will be taking a nice long holiday week next week.  If that's the case the volume should be pretty light going forward.  We'll see.  I'll be going over the charts this weekend in hopes of finding something worthwhile but I get the feeling that I'll be remaining on the sidelines for now.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower but finished with a nice gain of 300 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  The economic data was in line with estimates and perhaps just a tad better.  The pandemic virus still looms.  The S&P 500 has held its 200 day moving average for now.  The short term technical indicators are still in the mid-range area.  No SPY trades in mind at the moment.  GE was up over 1/8 on light volume.  Gold finished flat on the session and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX was up about 1/4.  Volume was extremely light.  I will certainly try to wait for the short term technical indicators for GDX to become oversold before attempting the calls here again.  That could take some time from here.  There's no rush as the July option cycle has plenty of time left and I'm considering going out another month anyway.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a long dark candlestick on its daily chart today and looks like it wants to go lower.  That would support a near term rally heading into a July 4th holiday week.  Hasn't happened yet as this indicator has been hovering around its 50 day moving average for the past couple of weeks.  What looked like negative divergences yesterday in the small stock indices remain.  If we move to new highs from here they will be negated.  Volume is lighter today and that's always a concern.  However it may just be the fact that we've gone into summer mode with less players expected.  We'll see if the lack of interest continues.  We're also coming up on the end of the month and quarter on Tuesday.  That could skew prices.  I'm remaining on the sidelines for now as I don't see any decent trading signals for what I'm looking at.  Asia lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Perhaps today was the big move that the McClellan oscillator was projecting as the Dow fell 710 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index down.  Back to pandemic virus fears as the economic calendar was quiet.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled back over for the major stock indices.  I'm not sure if this is just another one day affair or the start of something meaningful to the downside.  I think that we'll find out soon enough.  There is now more testing for the virus than before, so of course there will be more cases.  The reopening of states also ensures that more people will be in contact with each other.  So it shouldn't be a surprise that the number of cases is going up.  Perhaps the market knows something else that we don't.  GE was off 1/2 and volume was good.  Gold was off eight bucks on the August futures as it took a breather from recent gains.  The US dollar was up on a flight to safety.  The XAU fell 2 2/3, while GDX shed almost 2/3.  Volume was average.  I'm still debating on whether or not to chase this move in the gold shares.  However we're more overbought than oversold the moment so perhaps the sidelines remains the best strategy at this time.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a pop up today but did finish well below its best level for the day.  I don't know if that means the decline is over or if it gives the VIX more room to run to the upside.  A guessing game isn't really what we're looking for.  The TRAN looks like it wants to challenge the up trend line that has been in effect since March along with its lower Bollinger band.  This is something to keep an eye on.  There are also potential negative divergences in the RSI indicators for the NASDAQ, QQQ and NDX.  If we continue lower from here they won't just be potential.  Again, it's something to keep an eye on.  We'll get plenty of economic data to mull over tomorrow including a revised GDP number.  So maybe the pandemic virus fears will take a back seat for a day.  I guess the sleepy summer scenario that I envisioned isn't happening this week.  Asia was mixed while Europe took a big hit lower.  We'll see how things go tonight.  

A gap higher to start the day but it turned out to be pretty uneventful.  The Dow gained 131 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The Dow was up twice more than the final gain during the session but drifted off in the final two hours.  We did get a signal on the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move in the next two trading sessions.  I suppose today will fulfill that.  It seems like the market is just hanging around now with the exception of the trending higher NASDAQ.  Technology shares continue to be in vogue.  I still do not have any SPY trades in mind at this time.  GE was off a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold continues its climb as the futures rose twenty bucks on the August contract.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU gained a couple points, while GDX added 1/2.  Volume was light.  Gold has broken out to the upside from the sideways trend channel of the past three months.  The gold shares should be taking off to the upside but so far the advance there has been muted.  GDX is now hugging the upper Bollinger band as the indicators are approaching short term overbought.  For now I've decided not to chase it here because usually it's better to have the gold shares lead the precious metal itself.  I am still a believer in the GDX calls though.  But I would prefer to start the next trade at a better technical entry point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues to hug its 50 day moving average.  I'm not getting anything clear here.  One day it looks like it will support a rally.  The next day it looks like it wants to turn back up.  Still basically mid-range on the short term technical indicators here.  I'm not seeing anything concrete as to a signal for the S&P.  Volume has begun to lessen as the summer season has started.  We'll get some economic data to decipher towards the end of the week.  Right now it's sit and wait for me.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 153 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues to trend sideways.  Not a lot to say about today.  The pandemic virus remains a worry with more cases being reported.  But we also have states reopening up businesses which will spur economic activity.  My view is that we're a long way from getting back to normal.  The massive liquidity infusion that we've seen from the Fed should soften any blow.  Although we have seen a new all time high for the NASDAQ, I don't think we'll see that anytime soon for the S&P 500.  I could be wrong.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was lighter than lately.  Gold was up over a dozen on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  Gold is now right at the top of its congestion zone and appears ready to break out to the upside.  The XAU was up almost 5 points, while GDX gained 1 1/3.  Volume was better than it has been.  These indices have now broken above their down trend lines that have been in effect since mid-May.  They are also touching the top of their respective Bollinger bands.  This will either lead to a breakout above the band or the advance will be turned around right here.  Tomorrow will be an important session for the gold shares.  I'm inclined to believe that things will go higher because we've seen some volume in the past couple of days.  The short term technical indicators have turned around and there is still room for them to go up as well.  I was going to stay on the sidelines but this could be the move higher in the gold shares that I've been looking for.  I do not really want to chase things here but I might.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed back below its 50 day moving average today.  The indicators here have now rolled back over to imply that perhaps a rally in stocks is going to occur in the near term.  Of course that could all change tomorrow.  I'm staying on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now.  I don't have a decent signal one way or the other there.  My thoughts tonight will be on gold and whether or not to give that trade another shot.  Europe and Asia were lower to begin the trading week.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow had a upside gap at the open only to give it all back and then some.  The Dow fell 208 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The Dow was weaker than the overall market and the NASDAQ finished with a very small gain.  Fears of the spread of the pandemic virus are back as states that have reopened are showing more infections.  The question is just how bad will it get?  There are no answers as nobody really knows.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are trying to roll over to the downside.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold found buyers out of nowhere as the futures gained $25.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up 4 1/8, while GDX rose 1 1/8.  Volume was average.  A day late for me with the gold shares gain.  It would have cut my loss if it had happened yesterday.  But it didn't and we can only go from here.  The short term technical indicators for the gold shares have now turned up.  I'm still committed to heading to the sidelines for a while.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed back above its 50 day moving average and the indicators here have turned up.  Perhaps we'll see some follow through downside on Monday depending on what the weekend brings.  There is a chance that the NASDAQ has put in a small double top on the daily chart.  Combine that with the roll over of the indicators on most of the other stock indices and the picture is far from bullish.  I'm also strongly considering the possibility of things slowing down for the summer.  There are plenty of question marks for the market to consider here.  Among them are the pandemic virus, the reopening of the economy, the recent civil unrest and the upcoming election.  I'm not exactly sure that this is the kind of background environment conducive to a strong rally.  The current state of the short term indicators remains at mid-range so it's fifty-fifty as to what happens here.  It does look like gold wants to break out of its trading range to the upside after todays price action but it hasn't happened yet.  The gold shares are lagging and that isn't  the most bullish situation either.  We'll see what happens next week.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend and I'll be checking the charts as usual.  Europe and Asia were generally higher to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A day of hanging around as the Dow fell 39 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues its sideways track.  The overall market was slightly better than the Dow.  Jobless claims came in a little worse than expected but the other economic data was better than anticipated.  No other headlines to speak of.  Expiration week has remained pretty tame so far.  That could be a preview of coming attractions.  Summer arrives on Saturday.  The short term technical picture for the S&P remains the same.  GE was up three cents and the volume was light.  Gold was slightly lower and the US dollar was up a bit.  The XAU fell 1 7/8, while GDX shed about 1/2.  Volume remains very light here as there is no interest in the gold shares.  I sold my GDX June calls for a 95% loss.  They were dead a couple days ago but I was hoping for a miracle.  This trade was doomed from the start and never should have even been put on.  That's two crappy trades in a row now for me and I'm off to the sidelines.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed below its 50 day moving average but still has the looks to go either way in my opinion.  Of course my views on what's going on here haven't been correct in a while.  I am going to have to step back and regroup.  I'll be waiting for some kind of decent technical signal before putting on the next trade in either the SPY or GDX.  The Bollinger bands continue to contract in the GDX daily chart so something is going to happen there in the near future.  The S&P had a sharp drop followed by a bounce.  It's now simply stalling at the moment before the next move.  With mid-range techncials it could go either way.  I'm also thinking that things will get a little boring with summer on the horizon.  The doldrums could go into effect at any time.  For me, I'll need to rebuild some confidence before taking on the next trade.  A couple of dumb moves will do that to you.  As always though you've got to keep moving on.  The market doesn't care.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see how the option expiration goes tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 170 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The overall market fared better than the Dow with the NASDAQ showing a small gain.  There was sideways movement for most of the day with a drop in the final hour.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P remain mid-range.  Chairman Powell finished his testimony before Congress and there were no surprises.  We've got two days left in option expiration week.  We had a severe drop and now a bounce that has stalled.  So we'll see where we go from here.  GE was off 1/4 on lighter volume.  Gold futures finished little changed after selling off overnight.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had small fractional gains on very light volume.  There still remains no interest in the gold shares.  I still have my GDX June calls since they are practically worthless anyway.  This trade is destined to be another loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains at its 50 day moving average.  The short term technical indicators here are at mid-range.  It looks like they want to turn back up here which would lead to some fireworks ahead of Fridays option expiration.  We'll simply have to see how things play out.  No SPY trades for me right now.  In fact after I close out the current GDX call trade, I'll most likely be heading to the sidelines as summer begins.  I will be looking for the next GDX trade though as the Bollinger bands are starting to contract there.  That implies a big move coming one way or the other soon.  For now I'll just wait and see how the rest of this week goes and take it from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Still bouncing back as the Dow climbed 526 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  The retail sales data was much better than expected and there were no surprises from the Fed testimony.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have turned back up.  That doesn't necessarily mean that it's clear sailing from here but at least we did not see any follow through downside that lasted from Thursdays collapse.  It is options expiration week and that could lend to the positive skew as well.  More Fed testimony tomorrow but if today is any indication it will be a non event.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Gold was slightly higher on the futures.  The US dollar finished higher as well.  The gold shares did not.  The XAU lost 3 1/8, while GDX shed 7/8.  Volume was average.  My GDX June calls are solid losers with only three days to go.  Barring a miracle, this trade will go down as another mistake.  Once again the entry was ill timed and the gold shares have no interest at the moment.  The only positive here is that I didn't buy more at a lower price, which I seriously considered.  But that is one rule that cannot be broken.  Never throw good money after bad.  Never try to average down your losing trades.  At least my brain held fast to these maxims.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is right at its 50 day moving average and the short term indicators are mid-range.  I am not inclined to attempt any SPY trades this week.  I think I will book the loss in the GDX call trade and go from there.  Summer is on the way and I'll have to try and wait for a decent set up before trying the next trading idea.  I do still like the gold share calls at some point as a sideways trading range in gold continues.  The breakout will certainly be worth a look and I believe that it will be to the upside.  But we're evidently not there yet.  Japan ordered up even more stimulus overnight and the Asia markets soared.  Europe was higher as well.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow was up 157 points today on heavy volume.  There was a gap down at the open as the futures overnight dropped 900 points.  So you can see there was quite a comeback during the session.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The pandemic virus fears took ahold of the market on Sunday night as new outbreaks occurred around the globe.  The fear did not last though as the Fed announced it would continue to throw more money out there for whatever business that wanted it.  Now I'm not sure how long that can go on but it seemed to turn things around for stocks.  Speaking of the Fed, we've got the chairman testifying before Congress for the next two days.  So the possibility of more fireworks exists until after he's done on Wednesday.  Could go either way.  You do have to admire the comeback that we saw today though.  Option expiration week and things will get interesting.  GE was off a penny on good volume.  It did rise form its lows.  Gold lost a few bucks on the futures but it too came back from much lower ground early on.  The US dollar was lower.  The gold shares had one day reversals to the upside, opening lower and closing higher.  The XAI gained 2 3/4, while GDX was up 7/8.  Volume was light.  The short term technical indicators here still remain mid-range.  My GDX June calls are still at a loss but they at least came back from the dead this morning.  If we get more than a one day bounce here I might be able to exit this trade a break even.  The gold shares did outperform gold itself for a change and that is a plus for the bulls.  However with only four days left in the June option cycle, most likely any downside from here will kill the trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had quite a stunning reversal back down today as well.  I still think that anything could happen here in the near term as volatility has been pretty steep in the past three days.  Combine that with the Fed speaking for a couple of days and it appears that anything could happen.  Any short term SPY trades now will be very risky as premiums are high and the time left is low.  So there are a lot of question marks without any solid answers at the moment.  I think the prudent course of action here would be to sit it out until a decent set up arrives.  There will be money to be made but trades will have to have a strict short term nature to them.  Asia was lower and Europe showed slight losses overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow. 

The market stabilized today after yesterdays debacle.  The Dow gained 350 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now heading sideways.  We had a huge gap to the upside to start the session and then traded sideways for the rest of the day.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are trying to turn around and the 200 day moving average has held things for now.  There is a chance that Thursdays price action was just a one day wonder but the technical damage cannot be overlooked.  The up trend line that had been in place since the March lows was broken.  I think that sideways is the most we can hope for now if you're bullish.  We are also about to head into summertime, which should mean a slower time for stocks.  GE was up around 1/4 on average volume.  Gold was slightly higher on the futures and the US dollar was up as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Once again the gold shares are underperforming gold itself and that is not a good sign for my GDX June calls.  They are solid losers now with just a week to go.  The short term technical indicators for GDX are below mid-range.  Things could go either way next week but the weekly candlestick chart here looks bearish.  This looks like another ill timed trading idea as the entry price wasn't good.  At this point it looks like another losing trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX came back down today and the short term indicators are trying to roll over.  That doesn't mean we won't see another pop to the downside next week but it does mean that we did not see any follow through to yesterdays spike up in the VIX.  I still think that the S&P 500 could head down to support at the 2900 level in the coming days.  One thing for sure is that the upside euphoria in the stock market is gone.  I would not be surprised if this summer is a long and drawn out boring affair.  The pandemic virus is still here along with an economy that isn't back to full strength.  Partial re-openings of businesses seem to be the norm for now.  The Fed is throwing all the money it can at the problem and that should keep things propped up for now.  But corporate profits cannot be expected to be what they were.  We'll have to see what the market has to say about that.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed to finish the trading week.  I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The market got clobbered today as the Dow had a gap down at the open and just kept on going.  It fell 1862 points on very heavy volume as it was a rush to the exits.  The advance/declines were over 30 to 1 negative.  That in itself is amazing.  The summation index turned around and is now heading lower.  Fear of the virus coming back along with a not so rosy view of the economic comeback were the excuses.  But it was really just a market panic attack.  My prognosis of the rally continuing into option expiration next week was wrong.  My take on the markets hasn't exactly been on target lately.  Now we'll look to where support could be for the S&P.  2900 looks like the first stop from the previous consolidation.  The 50 day moving average is near there as well.  We closed at the 200 day moving average today but I think we'll see some follow through selling tomorrow.  Not short term oversold yet for stocks.  GE was off 2/3 and the volume was pretty good.  Gold fell a dozen as things had to be sold to cover margin calls.  The US dollar was up on the flight to safety.  The gold shares fell with the market.  The XAU dropped 7 1/2, while GDX fell 1 2/3.  Volume was good.  I did place an overnight order for some GDX June calls again.  It was filled and is showing a loss.  I am considering buying some more tomorrow.  I do think that the flight to safety trade will be back in play and the gold shares will rise from here.  GDX did close on its 50 day moving average which has held things up here in the short term.  There is always the chance that things will simply collapse from here and that is the risk that I'll be taking if I do purchase some more.  The short term technical indicators are mid-range for the gold shares so yes, things could go either way.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX took off today and closed at the 40 level.  The short term indicators here are almost overbought.  Should get there tomorrow with downside follow through for stocks.  Just when I had been preaching that I don't see any major downside for the market, the Dow drops almost 7%.  Like I said my views aren't exactly in line with what's going on at the moment.  That's also a clue that maybe I should simply head to the sidelines until things calm down and I have a better read on what's going on.  That said, I'll see how gold does overnight and decide what to do from there.  Interesting times.  Europe and Asia got whacked overnight as well.  We'll see how the week finishes tomorrow. 

Another mixed bag as the Dow fell 282 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The Fed had no changes to what was already expected to be said.  The market fluctuated after the announcement, moving higher but then falling back as it did from the beginning of the day.  Again, I don't believe this to be the start of some extended downside reversal.  Most likely it's just more profit taking after a huge run higher.  The NASDAQ closed higher yet again.  The major stock indices remain short term overbought.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume was good.  Gold rallied on the Fed with the futures gaining over twenty bucks.  The US dollar continues lower.  The gold shares came to life today.  The XAU rose 5 1/3, while GDX gained 1 1/2.  Volume was good to the upside.  I did place an order for some GDX June calls after the move had begun but it wasn't filled.  I may try and chase this move higher tomorrow.  The XAU has broken the short term down trend line of the past month.  GDX appears to be ready to do the same.  I am obviously late with this trade but I do think that it could work.  The short term technical indicators for GDX have turned up and are not overbought yet.  I think that the loss I took from the previous trade affected my outlook for a while.  The set up for the calls in gold and the gold shares was there again but I did not act.  Another thing that is affecting my view is that the previous calls that I sold for a loss have now come back and are almost at breakeven.  As much as I say that you have to move on in the game, I'm also looking back at times too.  I'm going to have to figure out tonight if this is a move that I feel like chasing.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX finished unchanged despite a drop in the market.  It looks to me like this indicator is ready to move lower and that would support a near term rise in prices.  The Fed today had no changes in policy and money continues to be out there for whoever wants it.  With that backdrop it is hard to see any kind of sustained decline for stocks in the near future.  I'm still thinking that stocks will be trending higher into the option expiration at the end of next week.  Overbought and staying that way for now.  I'll reconsider the GDX June calls tonight.  Asia higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Finally some profit taking at least as the Dow fell 300 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market did better than the Dow, with the NASDAQ posting a small gain.  No real news to speak of, we're just waiting to get the Fed out of the way tomorrow.  The market isn't expecting any surprises tomorrow but you never know.  The underlying conditions of the pandemic virus and the staggered restart of the economy persist.  The looting in major cities has calmed down.  The major indices remain short term overbought despite the drop today.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume was pretty good.  Gold continued to bounce back with the futures up $15.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX added 1/4.  Volume was very light once again.  There is no conviction in this bounce back for the gold shares.  Plus it isn't really much of a bounce considering the progress that gold itself has made.  Still short term oversold for the gold shares but the indicators have turned back up.  I'm staying on the sidelines here for now.  But a return back down to the 30-31 level would get me very interested in getting some GDX calls for the longer term.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The VIX continued to rise today as it found near term support at its 200 day moving average.  The technical indicators here have turned back up.  I'm not thinking that a major decline is coming here but what do I know?  We do know that the trend for stocks right now is up.  I can also say that we're starting to see some extreme overbought readings from some of the indicators.  Despite the drop today, momentum remains to the upside.  We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed but I do not think it will be a selling spree.  I don't really have any solid trading ideas here despite a week and half to go in the June option cycle.  I'll see what I can come up with overnight.  Asia was mixed with Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

The rally just keeps on going as the Dow gained 461 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  The Dow was once again stronger than the overall market.  The NASDAQ hit a new all time closing high.  There are no sellers.  Despite remaining short term overbought, the market is powering higher.  Price and volume indicate that we are simply going to continue to go up.  My guess is that we'll take it as high as it can go into the June option expiration.  We've got the Fed announcement on Wednesday and even that won't stop this bull run regardless of what is said.  We did get a V shaped recovery in the stock market despite the pandemic virus and the rioting.  The economy is still another story for now.  GE was up over 1/2 and the volume was heavy.  Gold held the lower end of the trading range as the futures gained over twenty bucks.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume.  Once again gold has risen pretty good and the gold shares are lagging.  The just isn't any interest in owning the gold shares at this time.  That said, I did place an open order for the GDX June calls again after looking thins over this weekend.  I canceled it during todays session.  I was intent on staying on the sidelines but the gold shares have some pretty good support here.  I may try this again if we see some weakness before the Fed announcement.  However there is even stronger support for GDX at the 30 level.  If it can make its way there I will be buying some GDX calls.  The only question would be what month to go out to.  Also if I do attempt the GDX June calls again it would have to be a very short term trade.  The lack of volume is not a positive sign.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX rose today despite a decent rally in the stock market.  Perhaps we'll even see more short squeezing as the week goes on.  All of the major broad indexes are now back above their 200 day moving averages.  The small stocks have led the way up and are hitting new all time highs.  Is that in the cards for the S&P?  It would seem so.  The decline following the beginning of the pandemic virus seems to be a one off.  A black swan event that is being quickly put in the rear view mirror despite the fact that it hasn't left.  No one knows what the future holds but it seems like stocks will continue to simply move higher.  I suppose all that money that the Fed has thrown out there is finding a home in equities.  That's the way it seems for now at least.  Asia was higher and Europe lower to start the week.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.  

Instead of showing a loss of jobs for May the employment report surprised everybody with a gain of 2 1/2 million jobs and the market took off.  The Dow soared 829 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The Dow remains stronger than the overall market but some of the over the counter indices hit new all time highs.  Whatever ideas that I had about the SPY June puts were wrong.  The trend remains up despite being very overbought.  Markets can sometimes and will stay overbought longer than you think they can.  We are in one of those situations right now.  It would not be a surprise to see prices continue to run up into the option expiration in two weeks.  Stay long or be wrong seems to be the motto at the moment.  GE was up about 1/8 on very heavy volume but did finish well off of its highs.  Gold got clobbered on the good employment news.  The futures lost $35 and were even lower than that during the session.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was good for a change.  The gold shares were lower earlier in the day but made back ground as the day moved on.  GDX has now come all the way back to the break out level and that is where you would expect things to hold.  They have for now.  Gold is also at the low end of the recent trading range and cannot fall any further or the range will be broken to the downside.  I'm not sure if things for the precious metal complex are going to hold up here.  The gold shares did stage a decent comeback from the lows today and are short term oversold.  However the weekly charts have a lot more room to go lower before support kicks in.  I dumped the GDX June calls that I had for an 80% loss.  This trade collapsed right in front of me from a small profit on Monday to todays sharp decline.  I did have a chance to get out in the middle of the week when I noticed things going south but decided to wait until todays jobs report.  Obviously it wasn't worth the wait.  Looks like I'll be heading to the sidelines.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX touched its lower Bollinger band today and is at its 200 day moving average.  It remains oversold as well.  I haven't been reading this indicator with any success lately.  Most of the major stock indexes remain in solid up trends since their breakouts from their congestion zones.  The summation index is moving higher.  Despite the overbought condition of the market, stocks are finding buyers.  Liquidity is king.  Two weeks left in the June option cycle.  I'll look things over in hopes of maybe finding a trade this weekend but most likely after the recent losing idea I'll be gun shy.  Confidence or the lack of is an important part of the game.  Right now for me it's back to the drawing board.  Europe and Asia were higher to close out the trading week.  There's plenty of money to go around the world for now.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

The Market bounced around today ahead of Fridays employment report.  The Dow finished with a gain of 11 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and the S&P lower.  It appears that today may have been the time to try the June SPY puts, if only for a short term trade based on the reaction to tomorrows data.  Stock indexes remain short term overbought.  We are in rally mode though but I cannot predict what the numbers will be tomorrow or the markets reaction to them.  GE was up over 1/3 and the volume remains good.  Gold bounced off of the bottom of the trend channel.  The futures rose $20 on the August contract.  The US dollar continues to decline as well.  However the gold shares are not taking part in any upside this time around.  And that is a problem for my GDX June call trade.  The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX was up only 1/4.  Volume remain very light as there is no interest in owning the gold shares here.  The gold shares do remain short term oversold but without any buyers it will probably just remain that way.  My GDX June calls are now solid losers.  It would take quite a rally from here to turn things around and I don't see that happening.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower during the session.  It did manage to touch its 200 day moving average and almost touched the lower Bollinger band.  That may be close enough to initiate a rise in the VIX and a decline in the market.  It did work that way today and we'll see if we get any follow through to the downside tomorrow.  Interest rates have begun to rise as it appears that bonds are being sold to buy stocks.  With that activity in place it would be hard to envision a sustained decline from here for the stock indices.  We'll see how the market reacts to the data tomorrow and go from there.  Asia was generally higher, with Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll close out the first week in June tomorrow.

The Dow continues its march higher as it gained 527 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Once again the Dow was stronger than the overall market.  The economic data out today wasn't as bad as expected.  We remain short term overbought but in rallies like the one we're in it usually doesn't matter.  The TRAN had a good day as well.  The S&P 500 is firmly above its 200 day moving average.  The trend is up until proven otherwise.  GE was up almost 1/3 and the volume remains good.  Gold took it on the chin as the futures dropped over $30.  The US dollar continues lower as well but gold could not find buyers.  Gold futures are now at the near term support that has held for the past two months.  A break lower here will change the picture for gold going forward.  The XAU dropped 3 1/2, while GDX lost 1 1/4.  Volume was average.  My GDX June calls are now solid losers and I'm afraid that they won't be coming back.  I should have acted on the light volume rally that got them to a small gain and gotten out.  If not on Mondays light rally, then yesterday after a very bearish daily candlestick pattern appeared.  That would have at least led to just a small loss.  At this point I'll simply see if gold holds up for the rest of the week and go from there.  GDX isn't completely oversold on the short term indicators, so I fear there will be more near term downside to come.  The stock market rally has taken away the safe haven buying that we saw earlier.  As usual, I'm far too late in the recognition of that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower and is just about to hit the lower Bollinger band along with its 200 day moving average.  Combine that with the short term overbought condition of the S&P and tomorrow could be the ideal set up for some SPY June puts ahead of the jobs report.  That would seem to be the next logical trade for me.  However being stuck in the losing GDX trade has shaken my mental capital.  Obviously confidence for me isn't exactly flowing at the moment.  So we'll have to wait and see.  Perhaps strength tomorrow can be sold.  I'll take a look at the SPY June puts tonight but I can't be sure that I'll be able to take on some more risk here.  We are also still in the rally phase from a true breakout of the recent consolidation.  That could end up going a lot farther than you think.  I'll look it all over tonight and go from there.  Europe and Asia continued to rally last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

The Dow bounced around early on but took off to the upside in the final half hour to finish the day with a gain of 267 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The Dow was stronger than the overall market.  Overbought and staying that way.  The TRAN had a good day as well.  It is positive to see the two major averages in sync.  None of the recent headlines in the news are having an impact for stock prices.  The pandemic virus is fading from view for now.  Waiting for Fridays jobs report and the market reaction at this point and it's only Tuesday.  GE was up over 1/4 on good volume.  Gold dropped $15 on the futures despite the US dollar being lower yet again.  The XAU lost 4 1/3, while GDX fell 1 1/4.  Volume here was average but we are seeing more volume on the declines than the advances here lately.  My GDX June calls are now at a small loss.  The short term technical indicators here have rolled back over and this trade is in trouble.  We'll need to see a turnaround here before the end of the week or this trade will be a loser.  I'm still a believer in the gold shares but GDX could be trading in a range and that would not be good for this particular trade.  Still 2 1/2 weeks left though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower and is heading down to the 200 day moving average.  It remains oversold.  Some of the NASDAQ indices are about to break out to new all time highs.  They will either break out or form huge double tops.  Let's face it, there's no reason to guess what's going to happen here.  We will wait and see how it plays out.  It is definitely bullish when the small stocks lead the way and that is what is occurring here.  The most likely scenario is for the rally to continue.  Especially with the market being able to ignore plenty of bad news.  We'll see if that happens again on Friday.  Gold had a sour day and we'll see if there's downside follow through tomorrow.  Europe and Asia rallied in last nights trading session.  It seems as if there's plenty of liquidity to go around the world.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.  

We begin the month of June with the Dow gaining 91 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market fared better than the Dow.  The short term technical indicators for the overall market remain overbought.  The pandemic virus remains, now joined with protests and looting in the streets.  The market doesn't care, at least that's what price is saying.  So take note.  The trend is up until proven otherwise.  GE was up about twenty cents on average volume.  Gold was up just a bit on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU gained 3 points, while GDX rose a point.  Volume was very light.  It was nice to see the gold shares move higher without the price of gold doing much.  But with such light volume it isn't really a ringing endorsement for the gold share indices.  The short term technical indicators here have turned back up.  However the lack of involvement is troubling and I'm not sure this move higher has legs from here.  I certainly hope it does.  My GDX June calls are still in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX didn't do much today and isn't generating any kind of signal that I can pick up.  The economic data out today was weak and I don't expect that to change this week.  Employment data due Friday is the main headline.  It won't be pretty but the market has been able to shrug off whatever bad news that we've seen lately.  We are technically overbought but have and can stay that way for weeks.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment.  I'll continue to focus on the GDX call trade for now.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed to begin the week.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.