We got some end of the month buying today as the Dow gained 73 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive.  This will move the summation index back up.  Traders were positive before the US/China meeting.  Perhaps the market knows something that we don't.  We'll get whatever headline comes out of that meeting and go from there.  Monday will be an interesting session.  My guess is that day will set the tone for the holiday week.  But we can only guess at the results right now.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages have turned back up.  You get the feeling that perhaps we'll see some kind of rally to new all time highs on Monday.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was slightly higher as the US dollar was little changed again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  A waiting game here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I simply can't remember when the market was on such pins and needles waiting for the results of a weekend meeting.  The fact that is happens on Saturday will give everyone time to digest the news.  That also allows the spin to go both ways with the comments afterward.  The technical indicators at the moment are pointing towards higher prices.  My view is that whatever happens it will be viewed as positive and the summer rally will be on.  It could be a repeat of the move higher into the June option expiration.  A strong week next week followed by consolidation and then a run up into expiration.  That's quite a long guess, even for me.  We'll simply have to wait and see what happens.  I'm waiting for the gold shares to get back to oversold but they have become popular and the wait could be a while.  Still short term overbought there but the straight up move has stalled here.  Remaining patient for the time being.  Europe higher and Asia lower overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

The Dow is running in place as it fell 10 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  Obviously the overall market is doing much better than the Dow.  Today should move the summation index back to positive territory but it isn't exactly moving higher just yet.  The economic data that has been coming out has been a bit light.  But the market is simply waiting to hear what happens over the weekend with the US and China.  That is where we are at.  End of the month, quarter and half the year tomorrow.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume remains light.  Gold was slightly lower and the US dollar little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Simply waiting for things to get oversold here but it could take a while.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Nothing new to report.  All that was said so far this week still applies.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are trying to turn back up.  The short term indicators for the gold shares have now rolled over and still remain overbought.  I'm expecting stocks to head back up and hit new all time highs again.  I'm hoping gold takes a breather and I'll be able to get positioned in the September or October GDX calls.  It's still a watch and wait mode for me.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Just hanging around today as the Dow fell 11 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Nothing new to report really.  The short term technical indicators have turned down but it looks like they may be trying to curl back up.  Potential double tops are still in place for a few of the major stock averages.  End of the month coming up as well as the G-20 meeting with the US/China get together.  I doubt there will be a lot of positions taken ahead of that because the results are unknown.  And even when they are known, questions will remain.  Interesting times.  GE was up a nickel and volume remains light.  Gold lost six bucks and is due for a rest here.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on good volume.  They did both finish well above their lows for the session.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Things are on hold ahead of this weekends meetings.  We'll get the reaction to all that on Monday and then it's a holiday week with the market closed on Thursday.  Most players will be off on Friday and some will take the whole week.  So unless there is a strong signal to do something, sitting things out for now is the strategy.  There will still be a couple of weeks left in the July option cycle after the holiday on the 4th.  I'm hoping to get a chance at the longer term GDX calls at some point.  That's the plan for now.  Otherwise we'll remain patient and simply wait for the next perceived opportunity.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the after hours headlines. 

Heading down today as the Dow fell 179 points on slightly better than average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index sideways.  Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Some Fed talk and lower home sales today but nothing out of the ordinary in my view.  We were overbought and now are relieving that condition.  Whether or not it turns into something more remains to be seen.  The VIX is back above 15 and its 50 day moving average.  That's something to keep an eye on.  GE lost a few cents on light volume.  Gold added $7 on the futures but the US dollar was a bit higher today.  The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX dropped 1/2.  Volume was good once again.  The gold shares have been going straight up and are extremely overbought.  A drop or pause here is completely warranted.  A drop back to 24 on GDX will be where I'll be looking for the longer term calls there.  Patience is the key now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a decline for stocks but the potential topping patterns that I mentioned yesterday are still in place.  We're basically on hold until the US/China meeting over the weekend.  I expect some type of positive resolution there even if it just means getting back to the bargaining table.  That would most likely lift stocks and perhaps send gold lower.  That's my guess for now.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices have rolled over.  They still have plenty of room to fall but we could also see just a sideways movement in the indicators and higher prices for stocks.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind right now since we've just rolled into the July option cycle and the premiums are high.  However if my indicators show a short term oversold reading before the weekend, I may try the SPY July calls looking for good news over the weekend.  We'll just have to wait and see how the rest of the week plays out.  Europe and Asia were lower in last nights trading action.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Taking a breather today as the Dow was up 8 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Waiting for the G-20 meeting which begins on Friday with the US/China trade talks to resume there.  Not exactly sure what we'll see out of that.  The market is still overbought here though but that hasn't mattered lately.  The VIX is at its 50 day moving average.  RUT and TRAN were both lower today.  The TRAN has a potential head and shoulders top here and that is something to watch.  A mixed bag of economic data due out this week.  We've got the end of the month and 2nd quarter coming up on Friday as well.  GE lost almost twenty cents on light volume.  Gold continues its uninterrupted ride higher as it gained over $20.  The US dollar was lower again as well.  The XAU rose 2 3/4, while GDX added almost a full point.  Volume was heavy.  There was a chance that things would move straight up here and that is what has happened.  Extremely overbought for the gold shares but there is nothing in the way of higher prices.  I will still wait for some type of pullback or consolidation because chasing it here is not the best idea in my mind.  I may miss out on this move if it just keeps rising but it cannot go straight up forever.  I do believe in the breakout though and look for a target of 30 for GDX going forward.  I'm also still in favor of going out to September or October on the GDX calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We also have some Fed speeches due tomorrow that could move things for stocks.  My guess is that we're simply in a pause before we move higher.  There is also a chance that some major indices are making double tops here before they move lower.  QQQ, NYA and even the S&P 500 have this look at the moment.  I think that we're going to continue to make new all time highs because the volume heading up to now has been pretty good.  I could be wrong.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.  

Some minor selling to finish out the week as the Dow fell 34 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues higher.  No news to speak of just a quadruple option expiration as happens in June.  Stock indices remain overbought.  There are potential evening starts on the daily candlestick charts.  However the flow of money probably isn't over here and I'd expect even more new all time highs as the days go on.  Things may quiet down a little now that summer has arrived.  GE lost over 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold continues higher adding $6 to the $1400 level.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  The technical indicators for GDX are blown out to the upside.  Combine that with the strong resistance here at the 25 level and it is time for these stocks to take a breather.  As it stands now, a drop back to 24 might be all we get.  I'll be looking for the longer term calls at that level if we get there.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've gotten both the fed and options expiration out of the way.  New all time highs were achieved for the S&P 500.  Next up is the meeting between the US and China at the end of next week.  Not sure what we'll see out of that and the market is always at the mercy of headline risk.  The rally this week was strong and that cannot be ignored as well.  The VIX did move higher in the past couple of sessions so that is something to keep an eye on.  Gold broke out on very good volume but it certainly needs a rest.  However the way that it moved lets you know that the rally is for real.  Hopefully we'll get a chance at GDX again in the near future.  I'm looking at the September or October calls.  We do need to see some type of pause or consolidation though to work off this extreme overbought condition.  Patience for now is what is needed there.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  It looks like the same end of he week profit taking that we also saw today in the US.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 249 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high.  The positive option expiration week bias has been in full effect.  New highs on good volume is a positive sign for the bulls.  Remaining overbought on the short term technical indicators as the rally lives on.  There was no news today but there seems to be plenty of money around to drive things higher.  Enjoy the ride.  GE was up about 1/4 on good volume.  Gold exploded to the upside and broke through its long term resistance.  The precious metal futures gained over $40.  The US dollar continued lower.  The XAU soared 3 1/2, while GDX added over a buck.  Volume was extremely heavy.  GDX is at the resistance of 25 already.  At this rate it will blast right through.  We may not get a pullback to get long at this rate.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Up, up and away at the moment.  Plenty of liquidity it seems.  I'm being called away right now so the blog has to be cut short.  More tomorrow.  Europe and Asia higher too.  We'll close out the week with option expiration tomorrow.   

Well the Fed came and went.  The Dow rose 38 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The rally yesterday took care of whatever dovish talk that we got from the Fed today.  In reality, nothing has changed.  the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Expiration week, a positive bias and we'll see if we can get new all time highs somewhere by the end of the week.  Overbought and staying there which is the sign of a rally.  GE was off a few cents on good volume.  Gold rallied over ten bucks as the US dollar dropped.  The XAU added almost a point, while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was good.  Very overextended on the technical indicators for the gold shares.  Reaching extremes in some cases.  That doesn't mean that the rally is over but it does mean that there isn't much more room to the upside for now.  Of course I wish I still had those GDX June calls that I sold last week.  A lot of money left on the table there.  Although I had a feeling that this is way things would play out, I could not risk the opposite happening as well.  No one could actually predict that the indicators would get this blown out to the upside.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There's still a couple days left this week to keep running things up for stocks.  The VIX is now below 15, so the rally has legs.  Just waiting on new all time highs for the S&P.  Perhaps news of a trade deal at the end of next week will do it.  Certainly interest rates won't be getting in the way of any rally at this point.  Could we climb all the way through the July option cycle?  It isn't out of the question.  The overbought technical condition is calling for a sell signal but I just don't see it happening here at the moment.  As for the gold shares money tells the story there as they have attracted it.  Price and volume tell me that this rally has staying power.  The next step is waiting for some pullback and that is what I'll do.  I'm looking out to the September and October GDX call options.  There's resistance at 25 but once GDX gets through there it is a clean shot to 30.  There is nothing in the way.  So my guess is that if this rally is for real, we'll get there in the autumn.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how they react to the Fed tonight. 

A nice move higher today ahead of the Fed as the Dow soared 353 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We got a signal last night for a big move in the next two sessions from the McClellan oscillator.  Today takes care of that.  Positive trade front news as now the US and China will start negotiating again.  There's also a supposed meeting between the two leaders at the G-20 meeting at the end of next week.  There was other positive news for certain companies that the street liked to hear.  Interesting that it all comes out during options expiration week but that is the game we are playing.  It's not a surprise as the positive expiration bias needs something to get it going.  We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed tomorrow but expect higher prices.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume.  Gold rallied as well, gaining around $8 on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  Still overbought and staying there for the gold shares as well as the overall market.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The sideways consolidation has resolved itself to the upside for the major stock indices.  I guess at this point we can expect a trip to new all time highs for the S&P 500.  The VIX fell below its 50 day moving average today.  Unless we get something negative from the Fed tomorrow, we should move up for the rest of the week regardless of the overbought conditions.  Perhaps some profit taking before the end of the week.  However if we moved like this ahead of the Fed, I doubt that we'll be heading lower anytime soon.  That is what the market is saying at the moment.  Now that could all change with a negative headline but I don't think that it will this week.  Option expiration weeks are interesting times.  Europe was higher and Asia as well with the exception of NIKK.  All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.    

Just waiting on the Fed as the Dow rose 23 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The small stocks were relatively better that the large and that's a positive.  Sideways for a week now at the 50 day moving average for most of the major averages.  Short term overbought and staying there as well.  I would like to try the SPY June puts ahead of the Fed announcement but probably won't.  With less than a week now for the June option cycle, the risk is pretty strong.  But we'll see.  Perhaps I'll get brave before Wednesday at 11.  GE fell almost twenty cents on average volume.  Gold and the US dollar were little changed.  A waiting game here as well it seems.  The XAU and GDX had fractional upside moves on good volume.  Perhaps I should have held on to the GDX June calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report on todays market action.  The VIX is right at its 50 day moving average and close to the moment of truth 15 level.  My guess is that all will be revealed on the markets reaction to the Fed statement on Wednesday.  I think everybody expects a no change in rates announcement with a dovish speech afterward.  Is it already in the market though?  Maybe another look at the SPY June puts is in order.  I'll ponder this idea tonight.  I don't want to think that just because the last trade was a winner that I've got things figured out.  We all should know better than that.  I am still waiting for a gold pullback to try the calls there again as well.  But it seems like the volume just keeps coming into the gold shares and that is a bullish development for sure.  I will have to try and be patient for a set up.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading activity.

Another day of bouncing round as the Dow lost 17 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  We're still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  Expiration week is on tap and that usually has a positive bias.  We've got the Fed announcement on Wednesday and that will be the main market mover in my humble opinion.  The VIX got to its 50 day moving average today.  We're at the moment of truth here.  A break below and the rally will continue.  If the 50 day holds, a decline will take place.  We're oversold on the VIX but in rallies we stay that way.  Next week will tell the tale.  I'll consider a trade over the weekend if I can figure out which way to go.  GE was off eight cents on light volume.  Gold was slightly higher and finished well off the highs for the session.  The US dollar had a good day.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume.  They too finished off of their highs for the day.  As much as I would have liked to hold on to the GDX June call trade, I sold my position today.  I did not get the best price on the day but I didn't get the worst either.  The gain was 275%.  I still think that the gold share calls are the place to be and I will look to try them again on weakness.  I do think that they could move higher next week but they are short term overbought and the options are running out of time.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Trying to figure out just what's next for the market.  A run to new all time highs or a roll over for another decline?  I do think that next week will tell a lot because we are about to reach summer mode for traders.  Vacations, potential thin markets etc.  However we do remain at the mercy of the next tariff headline as well.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and come up with a strategy.  I like the way the gold shares broke out on volume but it may be time for a rest there.  The weekly charts show more room to the upside though.  I would have liked to have the guts to hold on to that trade but the price movement today wasn't exactly positive and perhaps we're due for a breather there.  That was my guess.  We'll see how things unfold next week.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving higher after a pause as the Dow climbed 101 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  We bounced around a lot today but a very late buying spree took the Dow up over 100.  Overbought on the short term indicators and staying that way.  That is the hallmark of a rally.  RUT had a good day and that's a plus.  The VIX continues in a sideways channel above its 50 day moving average.  The only caveat here is the low volume.  It is wise not to trust light volume rallies.  But we are almost to option expiration week so who knows?  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold continues to drift higher as the futures gained around eight bucks.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/4.  Volume was pretty light.  Remember what I just said about light volume rallies.  Overbought and staying that way here as well.  I'm still holding on to my GDX June calls.  I really need to give some thought to simply getting out of this trade even with a little over a week to go.  We will not stay overbought here forever.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still trying to figure out where we go next here.  You can easily make a case for either direction in stocks.  We could drift higher if we don't get any negative tariff headlines before expiration.  We do have some possible Middle East tensions arriving with the bombing of a couple oil tankers.  There isn't any fundamental market news at the moment.  Waiting on the Fed statement next week as a change in rates is not in the cards this time around.  But that isn't until Wednesday and that's a long way off.  I'll ponder what to do with this GDX call trade tonight and take it from there.  Asia lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. 

The pause continues as the Dow fell 43 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving up.  Not a broad decline here so I think things favor the bulls for now.  This has the feel of just a stop on the way to higher prices.  As long as we don't see a huge decline near term, we're probably heading higher.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  Gold was up five bucks and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU added almost a point, while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was average.  The gold shares are overbought and staying that way which is what occurs in up trends.  My GDX June calls are still in the black with seven days to go.  23.5 remains the target and hopefully I won't get too greedy if we get there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No tariff headlines or anything else to derail the process here this week.  That could all change tomorrow of course but we'll stick with what we've got.  Short term overbought or getting there for most of the major stock averages.  I'm expecting a run up into option expiration next week.  Not sure if it will take us to new all time highs on the S&P but it could.  We'll have the Fed to deal with in a week.  Should be a dovish statement and supportive to stocks.  But that's a week away.  The VIX continues sideways and it gives me a feeling that a big move there is coming up.  Which direction is the question.  The contracting Bollinger bands there also supports the big move theory.  But we can only guess at this point if it's up or down.  I do think something will happen before expiration though because it's almost time for summer vacations and players will be taking off.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Due for a pause and we got one today as the Dow shed 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  the summation index is moving higher.  We did open higher and close lower for a one day downside reversal.  The short term technical indicators are starting to turn back down and they haven't just yet.  So I do think things could go either way now.  The VIX is starting to move sideways and the Bollinger bands there are coming together.  I would not be surprised to see the market roll over here again.  I do think the odds are less favorable for a run to new highs but that isn't out of the question either.  8 days left in the June option cycle so a trade is out there in my humble opinion.  GE was up a few cents on light volume.  Gold attempted to stabilize today and was up a buck or so.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on pretty light volume.  My GDX June calls are still showing a profit.  If we can continue to move sideways here, then this trade has a chance to be profitable.  If we drop from here in all likelihood this trade will die.  I'm a believer in price and volume.  The way GDX moved up recently says to me that the uptrend is real.  But whether or not it gets higher before expiration is the question.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The star appearing on the daily S&P candlestick chart yesterday doesn't look as ominous after todays price action.  But I still can't rule out that we've arrived at some type of short term top for the S&P.  If we move higher tomorrow then I'm wrong and today was the only pause we'll see.  It does seem like money around the world is moving back into stocks.  The lack of negative tariff talk seems to help.  That and jawboning by the worlds central bankers seems to have brought back the markets mojo.  We'll see how long it lasts.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We begin the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 78 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  the overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a plus.  We did however, finish well off of the highs for the session in all the major averages.  Combine that with the short term overbought condition we now find ourselves in leads me to believe that a pause is in order.  The question is whether it is worth a trade or not.  We may have already passed the optimum point to try this short term idea.  Today could have been it.  We might simply wait for whatever pullback there is here to get the SPY June calls into the expiration next week.  Just throwing out ideas here for now.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold took a hit today as the tariffs on Mexico have been canceled.  The precious metal futures dropped $14 and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU dropped a point, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was good.  My GDX June calls are still showing a profit but it was cut in half today.  I may have missed the right time to sell here but I'm still holding them for now.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over now for the gold shares.  I'm looking for GDX to hang in there this week by moving sideways from here and then we'll see what happens after that.  Subject to change as this week progresses though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've had a pretty good rally from the recent lows but it is due for a pause here in my view.  I can't rule out a trip to new all time highs before expiration because we've made back up a lot of ground in a hurry.  However today looks like a doji (star) on the daily candlestick chart for the S&P and could be the sign of  a short term top.  We're overbought but we could stay that way as happens in solid up trends.  Tomorrows price action will go a long way to telling us where we're at.  Gold needs to hang on tomorrow if there's any hope for a consolidation instead of a drop.  That's my best guess at the moment.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight but some markets were on holiday.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 263 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index has now turned up.  The jobs report was light but that didn't matter to traders as they bid prices up.  I suppose the logic is that the Fed will cut rates but that's not a given.  We are getting to what I consider the first area of resistance at 2900 for the S&P 500.  However there is still plenty of room on the short term technical indicators to go higher.  So we'll have to see what happens when we get there and that could be Monday morning.  Still two weeks to go in the June option cycle.  GE was up a nickel on light volume.  Gold only added a couple of bucks after being higher early on.  The US dollar had a decent drop and it would have been better to see gold rally more today on that but it didn't.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume.  The gold shares also finished off of their highs for the session.  It's been a nice rally for the gold shares here but it feels as though it's running out of steam here.  I am still holding my GDX June calls.  Overbought on the short term to be sure but I'm hoping for a little sideways action before an attempt at 23.5.  That is my target.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The weekly candlestick chart for the S&P now has a bullish engulfing pattern on it and that is positive going forward.  We were also able to hold on to the 50 week moving average line.  I still think that any decline in the near term can be bought but we've already moved quite a lot and the time for that SPY June calls may have passed.  Unless there's a dramatic turnaround in stocks next week, I think things are looking pretty good for the bulls.  The VIX was higher today with a rally and that's a caution flag.  But with still a lot of room to go in the short term indicators perhaps an attempt at the all time highs is in the cards.  You would not have thought that just a week ago and we are still at the mercy of the news headlines.  But who knows?  Maybe something positive on tariffs comes out and the market takes off again.  I'm just guessing with those statements.  The technicals do look like they favor higher prices from here though.  Gold is overbought and near resistance so a pause early next week is not out of the question.  Europe and Asia we're higher overnight as the risk on mode has come back.  I'll be going over the charts again this weekend to try and figure out what to do next week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing to build on this weeks gains as the Dow added 181 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  We got a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two sessions.  Today fulfills that.  It doesn't appear that we'll see a pullback to try the SPY June calls at this rate.  Tariffs yes, tariffs no and that seems to be what's driving things at the moment.  We're at the mercy of the news spin and that isn't exactly how we like to do it.  Technically speaking the major averages still have room to go higher on the short term indicators.  GE was up three cents on light volume.  Gold rose almost five bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on OK volume.  Overbought here to be sure and I did consider selling my GDX June calls today.  But with still two weeks to go in the June cycle, I'm hanging on for more gain.  Not trying to be greedy here, I'd just like to make the most of the trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  With all of the tariff talk let's not forget we've got the employment report due out tomorrow.  Not sure what we'll see there but there should be some market movement off of that.  Unless we get a tariff headline and then the jobs report won't matter as much.  RUT hasn't participated in the last couple of sessions and we'll need to see some upside there soon to confirm the move higher in the Dow.  That's my view on things here.  TRAN was lower today as well so we don't have all hands on deck for the rally at the moment.  The breadth certainly hasn't been good with the exception of Monday.  I do still believe the move higher is for real though and will look for 2900 on the S&P 500 as the first line of resistance.  A pullback before then will have me taking a look at the SPY June calls.  Gold is overbought here and perhaps it will stay that way.  I'd welcome a sideways consolidation for a few days before moving higher in the ideal scenario department.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

We did get follow through to the upside as the Dow gained 207 points on above average volume.  The advance/declines were just about even though.  The summation index is trending sideways for now.  We've broken through the declining tops lines on some of the major indices.  I'm willing to say that the decline that began in the beginning of May is over.  I would look to purchase some SPY June calls on any pull back in the near term.  We're still at the mercy of headline risk however the technical picture has improved and I think the trend is now up.  RUT was slightly lower today but we did close above 1500 there.  I'd keep a close eye on what happens here because RUT tends to be a leader.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold was up a couple bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume.  It appears that the gold shares have run out of steam here and I'm hoping for a sideways consolidation instead of an outright decline from here.  Todays price action was negative as we opened higher and spent the rest of the day selling off then moving sideways.  My GDX June calls are still showing a nice profit, so when to sell them becomes the question now.  With over two weeks left in the June option cycle, I'm inclined to hold them for now.  Short term overbought though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Upside follow through today was a good sign for the bulls.  The VIX is at 16 and the true test will be if it gets to 15 which is also its 50 day moving average.  If we can get through 15, the rally will have legs.  If not the selling will return.  Right now I feel as though we'll get through the 15 level.  If so the S&P 500 could make it back to resistance at 2900.  Hasn't happened yet but it's possible.  From there if it makes it, who knows?  Silver could not hold on to its gains today and the volume was heavy.  Ditto for gold.  That doesn't bode well for the precious metal stocks near term.  Sideways from here is what I'll be looking for but things could simply turn around as well.  Headline risk affects these stocks as well.  I'll hold on to my GDX June calls for now.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight but not with the huge gains that we saw in the US.  We'll keep an eye on what transpires overnight.     

Now that was some kind of crazy bounce!  The Dow roared ahead by 512 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index should start to move sideways after todays action.  We were short term oversold but todays boost was from the Fed chairman.  Mr. Powell stated today that rate cuts could happen because of the trade tariffs.  That was all the market needed to hear.  Now that doesn't mean it will happen and I doubt that it will.  But it gave players the sense that the Fed will save the market going forward.  We are now right at the recent declining tops line and resistance for the S&P 500.  Any follow through tomorrow should break the line and signal that the decline has ended.  We'll just have to wait and see but it appears that will be the case.  GE jumped almost 1/2 on average volume.  Gold was subdued today and only added another $3.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight gains on low volume.  It appears that the run higher in the gold shares may be over for now.  We're short term overbought there now.  The question is do we consolidate here before moving higher or it that it for the rally?  My GDX June calls are still showing a nice profit and I will have to decide what to do here.  There are still over two weeks to go in the June option cycle.  I'm inclined to hold on for now.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired again, did not sleep well.  So we got the bounce and now we're at the declining tops line.  Tomorrow should tell a lot.  It appears the move lower recently in stocks on some of the major indices looks like a measured move down.  A move lower followed by a small increase, followed by the same length of move lower.  If that is true the downside has ended.  But today could have been a one day wonder as well.  We'll know more tomorrow.  The gold shares are now overbought.  If we stay that way, there will be more gains to come.  If not we could simply move lower from here and the gains from my GDX call trade will evaporate.  The trading is never easy.  We are not in a seasonal favorable time for gold normally.  However we are still in the headline risk mode and that may make things different for the time being.  That's a guess on my part.  Asia lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

The Dow did manage to close with a gain of 4 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  Despite the good breadth, the overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The NASDAQ was over 100 points lower.  That is not a good sign.  The summation index continues to the downside as well.  The market remains long overdue for a bounce of some sorts.  The VIX almost made it to 20 but fell back.  RUT eeked out a gain so maybe there is hope for a pause in the decline.  The major stock indices remain oversold.  We're still at the mercy of the next headline out there.  But I would expect some kind of upside attempt to occur and soon.  Whether or not it turns things around is another story.  GE was up almost a dime on light volume.  Gold rallied strong again on the flight to safety trade.  The precious metal futures added $18 to make it to the first resistance zone at about $1325.  The US dollar fell.  The XAU jumped 3 points, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume was heavy again.  Higher prices with volume means that a rally is underway.  My GDX June calls doubled today and then some.  23.5 is the resistance near term for GDX and I should probably get out if we get there.  This index has moved 10% in three days and we know that rate of ascent won't keep up.  But for now it looks like chasing this idea may pan out.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  Looking at the declines in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, it appears that the big cap tech stocks were to blame.  Perhaps that masked some underlying buying in the general market.  Plenty of my technical indicators are saying now is a time to buy.  But it's a tough thing to do when the seasonality is wrong and the trade headlines are dominating the news.  I should say the negative trade headlines.  A month ago all was looking rosy for some kind of US/China deal.  The market rallied on every nice thing these two had to say about each other.  What we are experiencing now is the exact opposite.  But that doesn't mean we won't go back to the love fest either.  All in all there is still plenty of time in the June option cycle for anything to happen.  Silver finally broke through its declining tops line today and the volume was decent.  It wasn't a decisive break though so it's worth keeping an eye on.  Asia was lower and Europe generally higher last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.