Back and forth as the Dow fell 252 points on heavy volume to end the month of May.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index back to sideways.  The overall market was not as weak as the Dow and that is a plus.  Geo-political concerns returned along with some tariffs for Europe and North America.  The VIX is back above 15 and we'll take our cues from there.  We'll get some movement off of the jobs report tomorrow.  Which way as always is anybody's guess.  My SPY June puts are actually showing a small profit.  But that could all change tomorrow.  GE dropped almost a dime on average volume.  Gold was off a couple bucks while the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  I'd expect gold to move on the employment report as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is trying to make up its mind where to go here.  There was no follow through to both good up and down days this week so far.  Tomorrow will tell the story I believe.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range so things could go either way.  The recent breadth along with the out performance of the small stocks seems to be pointing towards higher prices.  But we are at the risk of headline events at the moment, so anything goes.  If we get a confirmation that the US will be meeting with North Korea, the market should rally.  Perhaps the opposite if there is no meeting.  Or the market may ignore that and focus on something else.  Tomorrow the key will be the reaction to the jobs report so we'll take it from there.  Asia was higher and Europe lower in overnight trade.  We'll begin the month of June tomorrow along with the end of the trading week. 

The market snapped back to the upside today as the Dow climbed 306 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back to the upside.  The fears of yesterday have disappeared.  I did place an order for the SPY June puts overnight and it was filled a couple of hours into the session.  It is showing a small loss and I already feel that this was probably the wrong move.  The VIX is back to just below the 15 level.  Where it goes from here will determine how long I'll last in this trade.  I have placed a stop limit order to exit this trade with a reasonable loss if it gets hit.  The 15 level on the VIX is key in my opinion.  If an actual decline is about to occur, the VIX should stay above this level.  We've got the end of the month tomorrow and the jobs report on Friday so there is potential for some kind of market movement.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was average.  Gold was up only a couple bucks despite the US dollar getting clobbered.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No follow through to the downside today and the price action today seems quite positive actually.  I'm not sure that getting the SPY puts today was the right call.  It could be that yesterday was simply a one day wonder and we'll travel higher from here.  But it's also too early to tell.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have turned back up and that is a plus for the bulls.  RUT also hit a new all time high today as well.  So you can see my concern with getting filled for the SPY June puts today.  So we'll see how it goes from here.  The problems in Italy did not just go away but the market goes where it wants.  Asia was lower and Europe higher last night.  We'll see how the market closes out the month of May tomorrow. 

Headline risk has returned with a vengeance as the Dow fell 391 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is starting to move sideways.  The overall market was weak but not as weak as the Dow.  Considering the huge drop today it is a comfort for the bulls that the advance/declines line wasn't at least 2 to 1 negative.  Trouble in Italy now which looks like a repeat of the Greece debacle in recent memory.  I'm sure that it will all get straightened out but where the market goes in the mean time is the question.  The VIX had a huge spike and has climbed back above 15.  That was the level that I was looking for a breech and we got it today.  I am no longer looking at the June SPY calls but that could change.  I'll wait and see how the market reacts if we get back to the 15 level on the VIX.  I'll be looking at the SPY June puts.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume was pretty good.  Gold was up a few bucks and the dollar rallied as well.  Not much of a safe haven flow if you ask me.  There was however, plenty of money seeking TNX.  It broke its up trend line for yield and had its best day in quite a while.  So there is some fear out there about something.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is a shortened trading week but it doesn't feel like it after today.  We've got the end of the month coming and the jobs report on Friday.  However with the event risk from Europe taking center stage, none of that seems to matter.  The trouble when things get like this is that you really don't know where things are going to go on a day to day basis.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have gotten oversold in a hurry.  But the small stocks remain relative leaders and that's a plus.  On the other hand if there is really some kind of systemic risk out there, that won't matter.  So we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.  I will take a good look at the SPY June puts if we get some type of snap back in the next couple of days.  It looks to me like the summation index is about to roll over and if that occurs owning puts would be the proper play.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were down last night as this is a worldwide risk off scenario.  We'll see if we get any downside follow through tomorrow.  

A lower session today before a long weekend as the Dow fell 58 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is now barely moving higher.  The small stocks continue to show good relative strength with the NASDAQ positive today.  As long as the small guys are leading the way I have to remain bullish in the short term.  Some overseas currency concerns today but I think that is simply noise.  I'm leaning towards getting some SPY June calls despite the continued short term overbought condition.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold was off a bit as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My feeling here is that the roughly two week sideways movement that we've seen is a consolidation of the rally that began in the beginning of the month.  However as usual I could be wrong.  The TRAN has broken out above its consolidation zone of the past four months.  That is another plus for the bullish cause.  The fact that the short term technical indicators are overbought doesn't mean that we can't go higher.  Getting the SPY June calls would not be a guarantee of success but signs seem to be pointing towards higher prices.  The negative in my mind would be the next bump up in rates but that won't happen until around mid June.  So getting the SPY June calls for the next leg up could work.  That's my thought at the moment.  I'm still considering the longer term gold share calls but would like to wait until next month to purchase them.  There will be plenty of data to trade off of next week including the employment report on Friday.  So even though it's a short week there should be opportunity for those who do the right thing.  I'll be going over all the charts and indicators in the next three days to try and come up with a winning plan.  Europe was generally lower with the exception of the DAX.  Asia was mixed.  The weekend is here and it's time for a rest. 

Lower today as the geo-political news took center stage early on.  The Dow fell 75 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market fared better than the Dow.  The small stocks are still relative good performers here.  The TRAN was up and looks ready to crack its near term resistance.  The market remains short term overbought but I get the feeling that we are about to move higher.  I'm going to let tomorrow get out of the way and then decide what to do next week.  GE bounced back 3/8 on heavy volume.  Gold rose $15 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The ten year rate has dropped in the past couple of sessions as well.  This seems to be supportive of gold as we moved back above the $1300 level.  The XAU added 1 1/4, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was good.  Perhaps we are about to see a move higher for gold but with another increase in rates coming next month I'm not sure what to make of it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A long weekend on tap in a day so I would expect tomorrow to be a light volume affair as players head out the door early.  Today began as if the market had every reason to sell off but it came back throughout the session.  That's a bullish sign in my view.  I don't see any reason to be negative on the market at this point.  With RUT leading the way higher, the trend for now is up.  We'll get through tomorrows trading day and then take a break.  Europe and Asia were lower last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

A one day reversal back to the upside today as the Dow gained 52 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  The overall market remains much stronger than the Dow and that is a plus.  Stocks got a bump after the Fed minutes were released.  We're still short term overbought for the major indices but there are no signs of a sell off on the horizon.  In fact today may have been the opportunity to buy some SPY June calls but I'm sitting things out until next week.  GE got slammed on comments from the CEO about the company.  It fell 1 1/8 on extremely heavy volume.  I'm staying away from this one for a while.  Gold was little changed again but the US dollar did move up a little.  The XAU was up a point, while GDX gained about 1/4.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just hanging around for the past week or so as the market decides which way to go out of this small consolidation.  It appears that we'll be heading higher after todays price action.  I'm on the sidelines for now as I'll let some of the time premium exit the June options.  It looks like my next trade could be the SPY June puts at some point since we are already overbought.  The timing as always will be the challenge.  But for now it's a watch and wait attitude for me.  Getting some confidence back after the latest trading debacle is one of the keys.  With a long weekend coming up there's no reason for me to take a position at the moment.  Europe and Asia were lower last night.  We'll keep an eye out on the overnight action.

We had a one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The Dow fell 178 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The small stocks are still showing good relative strength.  However there is now a bearish engulfing pattern on the RUT daily candlestick chart.  So we could be in for a pause or some sideways movement for stocks in the near term.  The short term technical indicators for the major indices remain overbought.  The VIX is still in its new parameters between 12 and 15.  We'll see how things progress going forward.  GE gained three cents on average volume.  The daily candlestick chart here has a couple of stars indicating a short term top.  Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed again.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My thinking right now is that I'm going to let this week pass and take it from there.  We've got a long holiday weekend coming up in the US at the end of the week.  We'll then move in to the end of the month of May.  With the technical indicators overbought and staying that way, we could see some more near term upside.  I'm still a believer that the bull market form 2009 is over but I could be proven wrong if the S&P 500 goes on to make new all time highs.  The fact that RUT has already done so is a warning sign to me that perhaps the market has another leg up.  But it hasn't happened yet.  I'll wait and see what things look like if and when we get to 2800 on the S&P.  Otherwise I'll keep an eye on things as we move through the week.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see if we get any follow through to the downside in the Dow tomorrow.    

The Dow took off to the upside today on lessening overseas trade tensions.  The most watched index soared 298 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The signal for a big move triggered by the McClellan oscillator worked out this time.  RUT is still moving up and the small stocks continue to lead the way.  All signs point to higher prices moving forward.  Sellers have disappeared for now.  The VIX remains in the 12 to 15 range and as long as it does, calls are in order.  GE was up over 1/4 and volume picked up.  Gold and the US dollar finished the day little changed.  Ditto for the XAU and GDX.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  As I looked things over this weekend what struck me the most was the negative hole that I've dug for myself in the trading account.  Poor decisions along with lousy or lack of trade management has created quite a loss to try and trade out of.  But you've got to take it one trade at a time.  It's also important to put whatever has happened, good or bad, out of your mind moving forward.  In other words you have to somehow learn to keep moving on despite what has happened.  You have to try and keep moving ahead regardless of the trading results.  Having a short memory will only help you in the trading game.  But that goes for the results, not the actual moves of the market.  For that, having a strong memory will only help you because things just simply keep repeating themselves in the market.  I don't have any solid trading ideas at the moment.  I am still considering the longer term gold share calls if we get sufficiently oversold.  I'm also going to take a look at the SPY puts again if the S&P 500 gets back to 2800.  Those are my thoughts for now.  Asia and Europe were higher last night.  We'll keep an eye on tonights developments. 

Expiration Friday ended on a whimper as the Dow gained a point on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 lower.  We did get a signal yesterday in the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two days.  So we'll see what happens on Monday.  Not much else to report as the market has basically moved sideways this week.  GE lost three cents on light volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The rate on the TNX dropped but it didn't seem to help gold.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  I'm still looking at the longer term gold share calls but would like things to get a little more negative before testing out this idea.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Another losing trade this week.  It really never had a chance as it showed a loss from the start.  I think that I was married to the idea of getting the puts when I should have simply stepped aside.  We are short term overbought on the major indices but showing no signs of dropping off.  I think that as long as the VIX stays below 15 we'll be trending higher.  I don't really have any solid trading ideas right now.  Perhaps the best place for me now is the sidelines until something shows up on the radar.  Another period of trying to return to the discipline necessary for success is in order.  The markets are there for the taking.  It is the battle within oneself that needs to be won.  It is a continuing work in progress.  I'll check the charts over the weekend and try to come up with a game plan going forward.  Asia and Europe finished lower overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

An up and down session as the Dow fell 54 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  RUT continues to make new all time highs and that is a good sign for the bulls.  I dumped my SPY May puts for a 90% loss.  Not much more I can say about that.  Another horribly managed trade by me.  I'll try and do better going forward.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages remain overbought and staying there.  We'll close out expiration week tomorrow.  GE was flat on the session with average volume.  Gold dropped a couple bucks while the US dollar edged higher.  The XAU and GDX were both little changed on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  It looks like we have new parameters for the VIX, with the range now between 12 and 15.  As long as we stay in that zone, I believe the market will trend higher.  I'll be looking to try the SPY puts again if the S&P 500 gets back to 2800.  I'm still a believer that the long bull market has ended, regardless of the RUT making new all time highs.  I could be wrong.  We hit a new recent high for the yield on TNX today and the market took it in stride.  Perhaps the positive expiration bias had something to do with that.  It will be interesting to see how things progress next week.  For me it's back to the drawing board as the losses have already piled up this trading year.  I'm going to have to regroup and get my confidence back or it will be a long year.  Maybe taking a couple of steps back would not be the worst idea right now.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed last night.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 62 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  the summation index continues higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The RUT hit a new all time high and that bodes well for higher prices going forward.  Higher interest rates today did not cause a sell off like we saw yesterday.  That is another plus for stocks.  I still have my losing SPY May put trade open.  I should close it tomorrow.  GE came to life and gained 1/3 on light volume.  It closed above $15.  Gold was flat on the session as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX didn't do much on extremely light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're getting through expiration week relatively unscathed as there was no follow through to the downside after yesterdays sell off.  The market is ignoring any kind of bad news here and that's bullish.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought and are staying that way.  Down trend resistance lines were broken to the upside recently.  All signs point to higher prices going forward.  The only caveat would be the volume, which isn't confirming the recent move higher.  But you can't argue with price.  I'm about to take another trading loss in the SPY and I certainly can't be happy with that.  Looking back I should have exited when we broke the down trend line.  However as I've said before, hindsight is never wrong.  The reality is that it is way too late to save that trade.  I'll simply have to do a better job going forward.  Europe and Asia were generally higher last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.   

We got the expected drop today as the Dow fell 193 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  We did finish off of the lows for the day and RUT was actually flat.  So there's a chance that we've seen all the decline for the week already.  I did not sell my SPY May puts but probably should have.  If we see a rise on the open tomorrow, the loss will be even more than anticipated.  The data today was in line with expectations but the rise in yields is what caused some concern.  TNX approached 3.1% before backing off.  The VIX popped back up to 15 which now is resistance.  It's possible that today was simply a one day wonder.  GE was flat on the session and volume was light.  Gold got clobbered and lost over $25 to break the $1300 level.  The US dollar had a good day.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/2 on good volume.  Higher rates and a higher US dollar spell trouble for gold.  $1280 is the recent support for gold and we're ten dollars away from that.  I'm not sure it will hold if rates continue to climb.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Only three days to go in the May option cycle.  I cannot hold on to these puts much longer before they simply become worthless.  Which would not be a surprise at this rate.  My timing was off and my management of the trade lousy as it has been lately.  I guess we'll see how it goes tomorrow.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major stock averages.  However the strength in RUT tells me that any decline will be shallow unless RUT suddenly starts to drop.  I doubt that will happen tomorrow.  Not to mention the VIX reaching its resistance in just one day.  I doubt it will break through and continue higher tomorrow.  But you never know.  Europe was mixed and Asia generally lower in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Still trying to plug along higher as the Dow rose 68 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving higher.  We were to the plus side for most of the day for the major indices.  I'm still holding on to my losing SPY May put trade.  I expect to sell these for a loss by Wednesday at the latest.  The market is overdue for at least a day of decline.  RUT has stalled at resistance here and is usually the leader.  It was lower today so we'll see if the overall market follows.  It is expiration week, so the usual positive bias should show up as well.  So it could be a mixed bag this week.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Nothing new to report here.  Gold lost $7 while the US dollar was little changed.  TNX is at 3% again.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was higher today despite a gain in the market.  I'm not sure what that means.  I'm not ready to abandon my thesis that the highs for the year have been put in for the S&P 500.  The 5 wave higher pattern from the lows set in 2009 is still intact.  If we make it back to 2800 on the SPX, I'll be looking to try the SPY puts there again.  Retail sales are due out tomorrow but overall it's a light week for economic data.  Still some earnings due though.  The market remains short term overbought and needs to take a rest.  Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower overnight.  We'll be keeping an eye out on the overnight developments.

Overbought and staying that way as the Dow gained 91 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today, with the small caps showing a slight loss.  I'm expecting some type of near term decline with 5 days to go in the May option cycle, so I decided to hold on to my losing SPY May puts.  Perhaps I can cut the loss early next week.  Regardless, it's another losing trade in a string of many this year.  Perhaps it's time to take a serious break and reassess the trading situation.  The discipline is really lacking so far this year.  There won't be any gains with that type of behavior.  GE was off almost a dime on very light volume.  Both gold and the US dollar were slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional moves on pretty light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was a good week for the bulls as down trend lines were penetrated to the upside on good volume on a daily basis.  The trend is now up.  The only complaint would be about the weekly volume.  It wasn't impressive overall for the week.  RUT is about to set a new all time high.  That would be another good sign for the bulls.  Sellers have vanished for now.  Perhaps I'll try the SPY puts again if we get back to 2800 on the S&P 500.  Just a thought for now.  The VIX is back with a 12 handle and we haven't seen that since January.  With the usual positive expiration week bias about to take effect, higher prices going forward seem a given.  There won't be as much work to do over the weekend as my game plan is simply to dump my losing position early next week on weakness if we see any.  Europe and Asia were generally higher last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The Dow soared 197 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The inflation data was mild and the market was up from the start.  My SPY May puts are already dead but I'll wait to sell them most likely tomorrow.  We've broken through the down trend line resistance on the S&P, so the trend is now up.  The VIX now has a 13 handle and the previous sell signals at the 15 level have been negated.  Of course it's just another trading mistake for me again and I've had a lot of them so far this year.  The RUT is about to hit a new all time high.  We'll take out cues from there going forward.  GE gained a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold gained $8 on the futures as the US dollar dropped.  The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like clear sailing for stocks in the near term.  We are short term overbought but still rallying and that is a positive sign.  The big cap indices are far from all time highs.  However the small caps are leading the way here and if we do see new all time highs there it should bode well for the overall market.  That said I'm not going to abandon my theory of the bull market being completed just yet.  Things can and sometimes do turn on a dime.  It won't be enough to save the SPY May put trade with only six days left in the cycle.  But I won't count out lower prices again at some point this year.  Europe and Asia were both generally higher in last nights trade.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Continuing higher as the Dow climbed 182 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  The S&P 500 is just about at resistance of 2700.  At this rate it looks to me like we will simply bust through there and head higher.  However this is also the spot where attempting the SPY May puts makes the most sense on a short term basis.  My open order was filled today for those puts.  But I have to say, I don't think that this trade will work out.  The nature of the VIX has changed as we are now below the 14 level and we haven't seen a sell off.  The small stocks are acting well and have been the leaders lately.  The volume has also picked up going higher.  It looks like the near term resistance in the S&P will be broken to the upside and soon.  The SPY May puts that I picked up today are already showing a loss and I may have to just dump them tomorrow.  GE was up 1/3 on OK volume.  Perhaps GE has been sold out at this point.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Although we're getting short term overbought on the major indices there's no reason that we can't go higher from here.  A break of the resistance on good volume would be all we need to really get things going to the upside.  Even though I did try the SPY puts here, I would not be surprised at taking another loss.  That said, I do believe that we're at the end of the long bull market that began in 2009.  When the laggards such as GE start showing relative strength, traders are looking for something.  Oil stocks were leaders today and that is a late stage sign for a rally.  So even if this short trade doesn't work out, some trade of this nature will be profitable in the future.  The inflation data today was mild, we'll see how it goes tomorrow.  I'm in the trade now and I'll try and not let my own judgements cloud what needs to be done.  Asia was quietly mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.       

A one day reversal to the upside for the Dow as it managed a gain of 2 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is slowly moving up.  It looked like the market wanted to sell off today but made it back.  That is a positive.  The tone seems to have changed here as the buyers are coming in at the end of the day.  I still have my open order for the SPY May puts but am rethinking this idea on a constant basis.  We're still below the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500.  Some of the short term technical indicators here are getting closer to overbought but not there yet.  So it's a mixed bag at best.  Also time is running out on the may option cycle.  GE was up 20 cents on average volume.  Gold was little changed on the futures again as the US dollar continued higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  They did finish well off of their lows for the session.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The RUT is acting well and is generally a leader for stocks.  This implies that higher prices are coming.  The market action lately seems to be saying that as well.  I probably should be patient and wait for the S&P to reach 2700 before putting in an order for the SPY May puts.  That may be the game plan going forward.  I'll consider it more tonight.  Inflation data due out in the next couple of days.  I get the feeling that we are going to surpass the 50 day moving average tomorrow and possibly take a run at 2700 in the S&P 500.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were generally lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.  

The Dow gained 94 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index higher.  The small stocks continue to lead the way here and that is a positive.  The Dow and the S&P tried to clear their 50 day moving averages but closed below them.  The VIX remains below the 15 level and that could signal that we will continue higher.  That's a guess as usual but previous moves to the 15 level were met with selling.  That hasn't happened this time.  Regardless, I placed an open order for the SPY May puts.  I'm leaving it in overnight.  The volume on the rise here is unimpressive but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was very light.  Gold was little changed but the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume as well.  Light volume was the theme of the day.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are right at some near term resistance for some of the major stock averages.  What we do here could be the key to where we are going in the near term.  With only 9 days left in the May option cycle, getting the direction right will be more important since there will not be enough time to rectify a mistake.  The S&P 500 still can make a case to rise to the 2700 level before turning around again.  I've left in my open order but will be adjusting it depending on what happens tomorrow.  Another negative for this idea at this time is that the short term technical indicators are more oversold than overbought.  However the volume is so weak here that if we begin to sell off tomorrow, I may just jump on board with the puts.  We'll see what happens.  Europe and Asia were both to the upside last night.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A dramatic one day reversal to the upside as the Dow gained 332 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up but still in a sideways channel.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up as well.  The jobs numbers came in about where expected.  But it was really quite a move higher for the bulls.  the question is whether or not it is real and it could be.  The VIX closed below the 15 level and that could signal a change in the way to look at this.  If a sustainable rally is to ensue from here, the VIX will be traveling below 15.  Hasn't happened yet but you have to be open to that possibility.  That would negate my buying the SPY May puts here.  The trouble is that you don't know if that will actually happen.  If it doesn't, now is the time to purchase the puts.  As you see how the game is quite a challenge.  GE was up over 1/8 but the volume was light.  Indicators are turning back up here too.  Gold had a slight gain as did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX were basically unchanged on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks continue to out perform and that's bullish.  AAPL is breaking out on good volume.  The question is, will the overall market follow?  Have stocks sold out here and now are ready to resume some kind of run higher?  It is possible.  The selling could be over for now but only time will tell on that.  The resistance line for the S&P 500 remains in place at around the 2700 level.  That could be the spot to try those SPY May puts if we get there.  However if the market just plows through that level, the decline would be over.  The RUT is generally a leader and it is holding its 50 day moving average and looks poised to go higher.  So it's possible that today signaled s change in market behavior.  We'll know soon enough as next week progresses.  I'm going to have a lot of work to do over the weekend to try and figure this out.  I also don't want to be married to the SPY put idea because after today, that thesis looks wrong.  But I'll try and figure out what to do in the next couple of days.  Europe was higher and Asia lower in last nights trading.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

It was a one day reversal for the Dow as we opened much lower and ended up eeking out a gain of 5 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is now slightly trending lower.  The Dow got clobbered early on and was off almost 400 points during the session.  It somehow made it all the way back.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  I thought we may have a quiet trading day but I was wrong once again.  The S&P 500 made it through the 200 day moving average but came back to close above it.  Same for the Dow.  The small stocks are still showing better relative strength on the charts and that may be able to save the bulls.  However I'm still going to take my cues from the VIX.  When we get below 15 again, I'm going to have to try the SPY May puts.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Gold gained $6 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Now I do expect some movement tomorrow with the jobs number taking center stage.  I don't know what will be reported but I do know the market will move.  As I've already said, I'll wait for the VIX to drop below 15 and then try the puts.  That has been a successful strategy lately.  Now there is a chance that the VIX will simply continue lower and we get a sustained rally in the near term.  That is the risk in the trade.  Today, I get the feeling that the Market wants to hang in here and go higher.  But feelings are not worth trading on.  Technically the short term indicators are oversold, so in that regard the market could move higher.  We'll just have to wait and see what happens tomorrow.  I've been on the sidelines since the last trading debacle and that hasn't been the worst place to be.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.  It should be quite interesting.

The Dow fell 174 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  We got the Fed out of the way with the expected no change in interest rates.  But the market just can't get anything going to the upside.  We got below 15 on the VIX and right on cue the market began to sell off.  We are getting short term oversold for the S&P but the action here is very sloppy.  Yes, I would still like to get some SPY May puts but I certainly do not want to chase things here.  That said, if we continue lower from here there's a good chance that support will not hold and we'll be dropping rather quickly.  Hasn't happened yet but the way the market is going here it would not be a surprise.  The small stocks are holding up well and that's usually a positive.  But the price action is so negative, there are no buyers to be found.  Perhaps that will change with the employment report on Friday but no one knows.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was flat on the session but did come off of its highs.  The US dollar continues a straight line up.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume.  these issues too came well off of their highs for the day.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as there isn't a clear signal to trade either way but the VIX signal at 15 seems to be working.  The option premiums are still rather pricey with over two weeks left in the May option cycle.  I am trying to be patient but I also do not want to miss the next sustained move either way.  But the way things are going here lately, it seems like only a matter of time before we completely roll over to the downside.  I don't expect mush out of tomorrows session as it is the precursor to the jobs report.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

Today had all the marks of a one day reversal even though the Dow finished in the red.  The Dow fell 64 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  The small stocks led the way higher and the S&P was higher after selling off early as well.  I did think about getting some SPY May calls during the session as one of my indicators was flashing a buy signal.  In retrospect that would have been the right move to make.  However I'm still convinced of lower prices overall, so I simply stepped aside.  I would not be surprised at a short term rally here but the VIX is getting closer to the 15 level.  We could get there tomorrow and that would be the signal for the SPY May puts.  It's a tough game.  GE lost a couple cents on light volume.  Gold dropped more than a dozen as the US dollar simply continues to the upside.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  These indices did have one day reversals to the upside.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I have been focused on the 15 level for the VIX because it has been the threshold for where declines have began since the huge decline in the beginning of February.  Now there is a chance that we will break this level soon and stay below it for a while.  That will happen if we see a near term rally from here.  But it hasn't happened yet.  The relative strength of the small caps here is bullish.  We've got the Fed tomorrow and that could spur movement one way or the other.  We did finish on the highs for the session today and that implies higher prices tomorrow.  I'll have to think things over again tonight and go from there.  Europe and Asia were slightly higher overnight for the markets that were trading.  Most foreign exchanges were closed.  We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed and AAPLs earnings overnight.