The Dow lost 5 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive. We did open higher but couldn't hold it. My thinking is that it was end of the quarter selling. We saw this in a big way last month. But that's just a guess. The GDP number was revised downward. Employment data tomorrow. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Summation index has begun to turn back up. Gold was up $7 today and the XAU rallied big, up over 3 and 1/2 points. ABX and NEM were up on heavy volume. I think the move was in sympathy with the dollar. The weaker GDP was viewed as bearish for the dollar even though it didn't move much. I did not get the usual signal here to get long gold. Although the gold shares were oversold. So my thinking here is that this may not be a significant move in gold. I could be wrong. In fact, I could have missed it. Time will tell. One thing for sure, the volume was strong and it is hard to ignore that. Mentally I'm feeling fine with a good nights sleep. I'm still looking for a June cycle trade. Perhaps it will be some puts if we go higher tomorrow and Monday. I'm also looking at GE but the options aren't cheap enough for me. I am going to try and not force things here. If something sets up then by all means I will try and take advantage of it. It is never easy. I'm doing the work and keeping my eyes open. We'll see how the week closes...

The Dow rose 111 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index will turn back up today implying higher prices. You just can't keep this market down. The Chinese market tanked overnight and the Dow just shrugged it off after an early decline. I have no trades here. Getting short here doesn't make sense at the moment. Gold lost 4 bucks today but the XAU was up over half a point. The volume was average there. The dollar was higher today so it didn't make sense for gold to go higher and it didn't. The gold shares probably just went along for the ride with the overall market. No trade here either as there isn't a clear signal. The gold shares are trending down though. I'm looking for a buy point but it hasn't happened yet. I'm also looking at getting long GE here. I have to check the chart tonight. Mentally I'm feeling tired as I haven't slept well the past couple of nights. I would like to make a trade in the June cycle but nothing is standing out at the moment. We are back at the highs set last week and at the moment it looks like we are going to bust right on up here. Also we are on the cusp of the last day of the month and first 4 days of the new month positive money flows. I'll be checking the charts of the overall market later also. So there you have it. GDP report tomorrow and the unemployment picture on Friday. It really seems like it doesn't even matter what comes out, the market is going to move higher. We'll see...

The Dow gained 14 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The market was higher, then lower and finished where it did. No trades for now there. Gold gained a couple bucks and the XAU lost about half a point. Volume was nothing special there either. The post is short today due to other commitments. Mentally I'm feeling tired however I might make a trade this week. More tomorrow...

The Dow was up 66 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. So, do we go on up from here to new highs? That is the question. The volume today was light. Was it because people got an early start on the 3 day weekend? Or is this the beginning of a light volume bounce the eventually leads us to taking out the recent low set yesterday? I don't know. I'm leaning towards that this is just a bounce. The summation index is still pointing down. Now I know this indicator hasn't worked lately but that can not go on forever. I'll check things over the weekend and go from there. Gold was up a couple bucks today and the XAU rose a point and a quarter. The charts here don't look too good. We are oversold on a short term basis. Most of the gain today was again the rise in FCX. ABX and NEM were both down on light volume. I'm probably going to stay away from the gold shares for now unless I see something compelling on the charts this weekend. Mentally I'm a bit tired as I didn't sleep well last night. I am looking forward to an extra day off this weekend. I was looking at MSFT and it bounced back today. I am looking to buy some puts there. I need to do a little more study though since this isn't an issue that I normally follow. I'm looking to get some OEX or SPX puts perhaps next week, if the market continues to rise on light volume. There are some economic reports coming out next week even though it is a short week. But for now it's the weekend and time to take a break...

The Dow dropped 85 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. So we rolled over here. How long will it last? I don't know. I do know we are short term oversold here. I expect a bounce within the next 2 days. It is what happens after the bounce that is key. At this point I don't think we will be going to new highs any time soon. I could be wrong. I might try and buy some puts if we get a weak volume rally attempt from here. The market will have to let me know what to do. Gold lost over $9 today and the XAU fell three and a half points. I think that the gold market is done for a while. Interest rates are heading higher here and the dollar is firming. It was interesting that NEM didn't go down today and the volume was extremely heavy again. I think there are takeover rumors floating around about this issue. I will have to look into it further. Perhaps some long term out of the money calls are needed. But perhaps not. The technicals have really deteriorated for gold at the moment. It might be prudent to just let that go for now and wait for a reliable signal. Mentally it's been a busy day. I have also had my eye on MSFT puts and today they doubled in value. I still might try this trade on a bounce. It appears that there is a potential double top on the weekly charts. The June 30 puts are the ones I'm looking at. I expect tomorrow all the real action will take place early before the 3 day weekend. Maybe some follow through from today and then a rally into the close. That's my guess but who knows?

The Dow lost 14 points on pretty good volume. Advance/declines were negative. Three days in a row we have tried to close at a new all time high for the S&P 500. Each time we have pulled back. I think we are going to roll over here. That's my guess. Greenspan was talking today and that was the reason we sold off supposedly. We were up almost 70 at one point. We'll see about tomorrow. Gold was up around $3 today and the XAU rose over 2 points. Most of the gain in the XAU was from FCX again. The gold shares really didn't move a lot. Good volume in NEM again also. I think the gold shares are just marking time here as the debate continues about gold itself holding up here. I mean I don't really know but we are not really seeing any trend for gold here. My hope is that we are in the process of forming a base, which could take a while. The dollar has stopped dropping for now and I think that is the basis for the recent action/inaction for gold. I haven't gotten a signal for the upside here yet either. Mentally I'm a little tired. I will probably not initiate any trades before the long weekend. I have no solid game plan right here or any viable ideas. At any rate, I think we will be down tomorrow but how long it lasts, if it does occur, is anybodies guess. Probably not for long in this liquidity driven environment...

The Dow lost 3 points on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly positive. The NASDAQ was stronger than the big caps today. The S&P 500 tried to close at an all-time high and pulled back again. No trades here for now. Gold was weaker today and the XAU shed 2 and a half points. We are really at a critical area in gold. If it doesn't hold up here it would be very bearish. The $650 to $660 area is key. My hope is that it holds but I have no idea. Mentally I feeling fine. No trades for now and I don't have any good signals. Patience is what is needed now and perhaps something will appear for the June expiration cycle. I will not try and force things here. If something comes up, I'll trade it. If not then I will just have to wait. There could possibly be a sell signal approaching for the overall market depending on what happens in the next few days. Time will tell.

The Dow lost 13 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow for a change. We were up most of the day but turned around in the last hour. We are short term overbought and did have quite a lot of volume without any overall movement by the close. Perhaps we are in for a drop but I've said that before. The declines have been very short lived. Gold was up a couple of bucks today and the XAU rose a point and a half. I think the gold stocks just moved up in sympathy with the overall market today. The dollar was a touch stronger today. There isn't a buy signal for the gold shares yet and it doesn't look like there will be anytime soon. We'll see. Volume was heavy in NEM and it was up at the close but nothing special. Mentally I'm doing fine, got plenty of sleep. I have no new ideas about what to trade here but I'm working on it. It's a light week for economic data. People will be leaving early Friday for Memorial day weekend. I will most likely remain on the sidelines. The charts showed nothing imminent over the weekend. See you tomorrow...

The Dow rose 80 points on expiration Friday. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. The market continues higher even with the summation index going lower. I can't explain it. Perhaps we are about to witness a melt-up. I really don't know. I do know that the divergences cannot last forever. But they can last a while. You cannot fight the price movement. There is so much money sloshing around that up we go, with evidently no end in sight. But it will end at some point. When, I don't know. It never ends good either. Gold was up around 5 bucks today and the XAU gained a point and three quarters. I think it's just an oversold bounce but what do I know? I don't expect gold to do much here but it is oversold. The best case scenario here would be to move sideways and form a bottom. I'll check the charts over the weekend but I do know we are at critical support for gold itself on the longer term. Mentally I'm feeling fine. Got a good nights sleep and did not make any trades this week as that was the plan. I'll be looking to do something for the June cycle. Perhaps after the Memorial day holiday weekend. Or who knows, maybe I'll just sit it out for a while. I'm waiting for a decent signal one way or the other. However the signals haven't really worked lately. It can be a frustrating game. Now it's time for the weekend, check the charts and come up with a new game plan...

The Dow lost 10 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. I really think we are forming a top here. There have been many divergences with momentum. The overall market has been weaker than the headline Dow. Option expiration perhaps has propped us up for this week. Time will tell. Gold lost around $4 and the XAU shed another point or so. Gold looks like it is breaking down here. I think the recent rise in interest rates is perhaps making the dollar look attractive again and that is not good for the price of gold. NEM was down again on heavy volume. The volume was high for the gold ETF also. People are getting out of gold. That will change at some point and I hope to be aboard for that next run. It will happen at some point this year. Mentally I'm a bit tired again. I've been quite busy lately away from the market. I haven't made any stupid trades this week so that's a plus. Next week, who knows?

The Dow was up 104 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The upside expiration bias lives. The overall market was decent here today also. So higher we climb. How far? Who knows but enjoy the ride. My own thought is that this can't go on forever. But I have lost enough trying to buy puts lately so I'm on the sidelines. Gold lost big today, over $11. The dollar was stronger. The XAU lost more earlier but came back with the overall market to be down a point and a third. ABX held up pretty well as it has lately but NEM closed below $40. Gold itself needs to hold here or it will break some important uptrend lines. Obviously there is no buy signal here. I'll keep an eye on it. Mentally I'm a bit tired since I haven't gotten a good nights sleep lately. 2 days before the May expiration and I do not see any trades looming on the horizon. I am not going to force the issue here. I'm going to wait for something worthwhile to appear and take it from there. The work continues to need to be done even with no imminent trades. Discipline is still key.

The Dow was up 37 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were up over 100 at one point. The overall market was weaker once again. We are running out of gas here I believe. Option expiration week might help prop this thing up but I think the rally is over. That is my guess. Gold was up $4 today and the XAU was little changed. The XAU was up earlier in the day and sold off also. I'm waiting for a buy signal there. It hasn't happened yet. Mentally I'm a bit tired today. I would have liked to have taken a chance on some puts today but I am trying to remain out. Discipline isn't easy. The inflation data was viewed as positive and that fueled the rally in stocks early. The dollar sold off and that helped the gold shares early as well. But the gains were not held and implies weakness ahead. Expiration is Friday and anything can happen between now and then. I'm on the sidelines and hopefully staying there...

The Dow gained 20 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ both down. Usually such action portends lower prices ahead. But it hasn't been that way lately. The summation index remains pointing down also. Inflation data tomorrow and that will be the mover most likely. Gold was down a couple bucks and the XAU lost over 2 points. The dollar didn't do much today and most of the metals were weaker. I have no trades in the works. Mentally I'm feeling fine. Trying not to make a trade this week if possible and trying to come up with a game plan for the months ahead. I really need to come up with a winning trade to break out of this funk. I have no idea where it will come from but I'm looking. As I said before I will be looking at getting long gold when the proper signal is generated. It hasn't happened where I've been able to see it as I missed the last one a couple weeks ago. You always have to pay attention in the game. There is no let up. That's what helps make it tough. But that's what makes the winning trades all that more rewarding. And not just for the money. It's a mental game with oneself. I don't think it is any more than that when you really get down to it. But what do I know? Not much really. We'll see what tomorrow brings...

The Dow gained 111 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. So we got the opposite of yesterdays action. Is it a snap back or are we going to new highs in the S&P? Who knows? I had to fight myself all day not to do another trade. Because I'd like to try the puts again. As I've said hundreds of times, the battle always lies within oneself, not the markets. Gold was up 5 bucks and the XAU rose a couple points. The volume here was light also. I'll have to look at things over the weekend. Right now my thought is that my next big trade will be in gold at some point. I have to wait for a decent signal though. I'm not sure that will happen anytime soon. Mentally I'm feeling OK, got a decent nights sleep. I suppose that I will try and let next week pass without making a trade but there are no guarantees. My year hasn't been going well as yet but that can change. I'm kicking myself for not buying some SUNH, which is a long term play for me that I haven't been able to get in to. It continues to go higher. One of my themes for the long term is health care. I think the demographics support these type of companies. These stocks aren't trades per se, they are long term holds once purchased. I'm hoping for some weakness at some point this year and then I can act. Until then it's a waiting game. Time for the weekend...

The Dow lost 148 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. Of course the OEX puts I got stopped out on yesterday are showing a profit now that I don't have them anymore. Ahhh the joys of trading. What can I say? It happens. You've got to put it behind you and keep on going. It isn't easy but it must be done. We have broken the short term uptrend line and should be headed lower. The summation index will now be rolling over with some distance to it. How far will we go? I don't know. There is support for the S&P 500 at 1450 and for the OEX at 670. Those could be some targets. Gold got slammed today, off $15. The XAU lost over 4 points. The volume wasn't all that heavy here though. Gold is approaching important support at $660 to $650. It needs to hold here or there will be a bigger near term drop. I have no reasons, perhaps it's because the dollar isn't dropping anymore. Mentally I haven't gotten any good sleep lately and I'm a bit tired. But I'm not feeling too bad considering the recent losses. Of course, I'm not feeling good either. I mean really, what can I say from here? Trading is and can be one of the most frustrating things you can do. The work is non-stop and the timing has to be close to perfect. You always have to be on your toes. Options are even tougher because you have the limited time variable thrown in. It is never easy. But you keep at it because you know that somewhere down the road you will get it exactly right and that will more than make up for everything that leads up to that trade.

The Dow rose 54 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. It is a liquidity driven love fest. The Fed left rates unchanged and said nothing new. We bounced around after that in about a 100 point range. My OEX puts were stopped out for a 50% loss. Not a lot of money in this particular trade but losing is never good. We are overbought and definitely need a rest. But it seems like nothing can stop the market at this point. Oh it will change course eventually, however my thinking now is that it will run up into the expiration. But what do I know? Not much as my recent trading can testify. Gold lost $5 and the XAU was little changed. Volume there was muted. ABX is still holding on pretty good but it lost a quarter today. This will probably run up into expiration also but who knows? Mentally I'm frustrated. The small losses of late weigh on me. I haven't been trading well at all since the beginning of the year. Perhaps it is time to take a break. Even small losses add up and it isn't a pretty picture. You have to somehow remain focused and carry on. The market just wants to go higher. There was no good reason to try and fight that. My timing in was pretty good but the down moves quickly evaporated. In retrospect, I should have just stayed out. But it is always easy to second guess. I did what I thought was prudent and I lost. There is no getting away from that. Where do I go from here? That is the question...

The Dow lost 4 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were down over 70 points at one time. There is no selling off in this market. It's interesting but it doesn't help my OEX puts any. The summation index should be attempting to roll over again. We'll see what happens. The puts I own are losing money but haven't been stopped out yet. The Fed announcement is tomorrow. I don't know if it will be a market mover or not. Gold lost 3 bucks today and the XAU lost about a point and a half. The volume was light. The trend there is still up for now. ABX was up a dime. My guess is that the Fed will talk tough on inflation tomorrow and the dollar will rally, gold will fall. That's what I'm thinking at this point. Mentally I'm feeling fine, got a good nights sleep. At this point I would like to exit the OEX trade without a loss and I'd feel pretty good if I could do that. Otherwise there is nothing on my radar that seems like it needs immediate attention. We'll see what tomorrow brings...

The blog is early today due to commitments after the bell. The Dow is up around 40 points at the moment on light volume. Advance/declines are positive. My OEX puts are losers at the moment. Fed meeting tomorrow with the announcement the following day. I'm going to at least stick around in this trade for that unless it gets stopped out. Gold is up a couple bucks today. The XAU is up a point and a half at the moment. ABX is acting well, up three quarters on good volume. Getting back to the overall market we are short term overbought again. But lately, when haven't we been? It's a momentum rally and I have had no business shorting it. Yet I continue to try. When it ends it will be just as rapid to the downside. And it will end. But when is the question. Mentally I'm doing OK. Checked the charts over the weekend and there is nothing new to report. If we end higher today and it looks like we will, I will have to say that I never trust Monday light volume rallies. We'll see what happens. Obviously today would have been a better day to buy the puts...

The Dow was up another 23 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. I got stopped out of the SPX puts for a 35% or so loss. Not a lot of money in that trade but a loser none the less. I still feel a decline is imminent so I bought some OEX puts near the close. I changed my order and ended up paying more than I should have. Such is the frustration when things just aren't going well. Perhaps I should have just waited until Monday. Perhaps I should move to the sidelines as I have suggested considering how poorly I've been trading lately. At any rate we'll see how it goes next week. Gold continued higher, up another $6 today. The XAU managed only a quarter point gain. The volume was heavy in the gold shares again but the price action says it's time for a rest. Time will tell. Mentally I'm frustrated. I need to regroup over the weekend and go from there. The battle is always with oneself. I've been losing at that lately. There isn't any getting away from that. The market is a difficult game in itself, you don't really want to make it any tougher. I'll try and relax over the weekend but it won't be easy...

The Dow added another 30 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow and it doesn't bode well for my SPX puts. They are now under water. The stop-loss order is in, which could get triggered if we rally on the employment report. That seems likely given todays action. But you never know. Gold soared over $9 today and the XAU was up over a point and a half. The volume was heavy in the gold shares and ABX was up another three quarters. Of course I'm still kicking myself for missing that one. But that won't do any good. Especially when I have to manage the SPX trade. And so on it goes. I got plenty of sleep last night but mentally I'm not feeling all that well. Missing opportunities really eats away at me. It affects what I'm going to do from here. I'll probably pull back a little. But that may not be the prudent course of action. Confidence is an important part of the game. You don't want to be overconfident but you need to believe in yourself and your trading. Mistakes are inevitable and must be overcome. Time will heal your wounds but it doesn't happen overnight. So while you're in a bad place mentally it's better to reign in yourself for a while. That's what I'm looking at for now...

The Dow was up 75 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. We were up higher but sold off in the last hour. I decided to buy some SPX puts. It may not be the smartest thing to do, but it is done. The position is slightly in the black. I'm going on the rollover of the summation index for this trade. Although todays action could move that back to neutral. At any rate I will wait for the employment report on Friday and take it from there. Gold was down a bit today but the XAU and ABX soared. I guess I missed out again by not getting long ABX yesterday. I wasn't sure of the signal for the gold shares but I guess it was there. My fault for not taking a chance. They were oversold and the earnings for ABX were due today. They were not that good but the market liked something as it moved up over a dollar fifty on heavy volume. That is the biggest one day move I've seen in that issue. The XAU was up over 3 and a half points. I was paying attention and still missed it. And so it goes. Mentally I'm feeling fine. You have to keep moving in the game. There really are no excuses. It takes a lot of effort to be successful. There is no getting around it. I'm doing the work necessary and there will be other trades that work. Perhaps this SPX trade will be a winner. Time will tell.

The Dow gained 73 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive. It was another new high for the Dow. The overall market lagged again though. I am thinking of buying some puts and will perhaps do so tomorrow. There's always a chance we just keep going up here though. But the breadth hasn't been there for a while. Today could just be the beginning of the month money flow. Hard to say. Gold lost over $6 today as the dollar was higher. The XAU lost less than a point, which is a positive for that index. ABX reports earnings tomorrow. I'm not sure this is the time to get long gold. I am going to wait for the signal that has worked before in the past that deals with the price relationship of gold to the XAU. We are almost there now but not quite. Getting back to the overall market, I'm probably going to get some SPX puts this time around. The OEX just isn't moving as much right now. Probably due to the fact that it is laden with big caps and they are outperforming at the moment. It's risky but that's trading for you. Mentally I'm feeling good and looking forward to this next trade and how I'll manage it. There are no guarantees but I'll do my best and see what happens. GE has been holding up here and that is supporting the Dow and the OEX. Volume has been heavy in that issue also. That makes me hesitate on the thought of buying puts here but it will not be the overriding factor. We'll see what tomorrow brings...