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Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Volatility was the name of the game today as the Dow fell 522 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The Fed came and went with the expected rise in interest rates. Stocks then bounced back and forth in a huge trading range before deciding to head lower and staying there. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. Combine that with the summation index on the doorstep of the zero line and we could be looking at quite a drop in the very near future. Like tomorrow. Some of what we work with is telling us that we could see some strength in the near term as well. However it doesn't look like that means more than just a bounce in the ongoing down trend. Seasonality doesn't favor stocks right now as well. We closed on the low for the day. We'll stick with the summation index direction and look for lower prices going forward. A test of the June lows perhaps? Gold was up ten bucks on the futures in a flight to safety I'm guessing. The US dollar hit a new yearly high while interest rates were mixed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on good volume. It appears that the gold shares can't make up their mind which way to go here. My open order for the GDX calls is still out there. I've decided to not chase anything here and if the gold shares drop perhaps the order will get filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was all over the map today as well. It did finish higher which fits a down market. It broke through the 28 level only to fall back, drop to 25 1/2 and then close at 28. Not sure exactly what to expect next from this indicator. More overbought than oversold on the short term indicators here. We've got the Fed out of the way and we'll have to see what the next catalyst is for stock prices. It appears that we are falling through the zero line on the summation index and that is a rare event. Look out below is the general rule when it happens. Tomorrow could be even more interesting than today. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

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