Back and forth today to close out the month of May and the Dow lost 17 points on end of the month heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  The short term technical condition remains overbought for the major stock indices.  The economic data remains very weak and the market continues to look past it.  I'm still looking for higher prices after the recent breakout.  GE lost about 1/4 on good volume.  Gold picked up over a dozen on the futures as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was light.  No volume equals no interest in my mind.  Gold itself had a decent week but the gold shares did not participate as they have recently.  To me this spells trouble for my GDX June call trade.  The gold shares need to be leading the way higher and for now they are having trouble following.  The Bollinger bands are beginning to pinch on the daily GDX chart, implying a big move is in the works and coming relatively soon.  At this rate I'm not sure it will be in the direction that I'm looking for.  Still three weeks to go in the June option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower today and is still making its way down to the 200 day moving average.  It still has yet to touch the lower Bollinger band which would be a signal to try the SPY June puts.  However that is not advisable now with the recent breakout to the upside in the S&P.  Also some of the small stock indexes are on the verge of making new all time highs.  Unless things break down there to form double tops, the trend is up.  Gold seems to have rallied enough today to keep the monthly candlestick chart from looking too bearish.  But the action this week in the gold shares wasn't all that good.  Although the GDX June call trade that I put on is showing a small profit, I don't have a lot of confidence in this trade at the moment.  The gold shares do remain short term oversold though so there is some hope.  We'll just have to wait and see for now.  Plenty to go over this weekend with the various charts.  Europe and Asia were generally lower last night to finish the month.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

A late day sell off sent the Dow to a loss of 147 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues higher.  We had been positive and higher for much of the session but the sellers came out in the final hour.  Perhaps it's just end of the month squaring but that's just a guess on my part.  After the breakout from the congestion zone and solid move higher we were due for a rest anyway.  We'll have to keep an eye on tomorrow and see if there's any follow through.  All of the major averages remain short term overbought.  GE dropped fifty cents on heavy volume.  Gold was up pretty good early but then fell off.  The futures there did manage a gain of $8.  The US dollar was weaker.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  The GDX June calls that I purchased yesterday are still showing a small gain.  If the recent lows for GDX hold then this trade has a chance to work out.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was up just a bit today and the short term technical indicators here remain oversold.  My guess is that todays stock market decline is not the beginning of anything substantial.  Of course I could be wrong.  However the McClellan oscillator is pretty strong here which implies higher prices going forward.  We also just had a high volume breakout from a sideways market pattern.  That is bullish.  Now we may snap back to the top of the congestion zone in the near term.  That would not be out of the question.  But overall I believe that prices will be moving higher from here.  Gold needs to close a bit higher at the end of the month tomorrow so that the monthly candlestick chart there isn't so bearish.  We'll just have to wait and see what happens there.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

We bounced around early but then the Dow took off and closed with a gain of 553 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  That's over a thousand points in two days for the Dow.  The overall market continues to lag the Dow, especially the NASDAQ.  But you cannot argue with price and the markets are moving higher.  The S&P remains overbought but has broken out of the recent congestion zone to the upside on good volume.  This implies higher prices to follow.  I'm no longer considering the SPY June puts at this point.  I was trying to expand my horizons and had been considering calls in UAL or MU.  However those stocks have already moved higher as I wasn't quick enough to get on board.  Or perhaps I simply wasn't paying enough attention.  Trades there would have been out of my comfort zone but I am looking at other opportunities down the road.  GE was up 1/2 on very heavy volume.  Gold sold off early but then managed to eek out a small gain.  The US dollar finished slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX both had fractional losses on average volume.  The gold shares also finished up from their worst levels on the day.  My open order for the GDX June calls was filled early in the morning.  It is showing a slight gain.  Plenty of time for this trade to work out and with the short term oversold condition here, there's a chance that the trade will work out.  The entry was OK but the calls are pretty far out of the money at this point.  Ideally gold will rise in the next couple of days before the end of the month to alleviate the bearish candlestick formation appearing on the monthly chart.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX bounced around today as the market gyrated in the first hour before rallying the rest of the session.  It almost touched its lower Bollinger band but I am not looking to purchase the SPY June puts at this point.  The VIX does remain oversold on a short term basis.  The TRAN is acting well here on heavy volume and that's another plus going forward.  The major stock indices are all short term overbought here but I do not expect a big decline in the near future.  There is plenty of time in the June option cycle for an SPY trade but for now I'll stay on the sidelines there.  Things can and do change in a hurry though.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We had a huge gap up this morning as the Dow rallied 529 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  There was a signal for a big move on Friday from the McClellan oscillator and we got it today.  The Dow was up over 700 points but we got a last hour sell off that slightly changed the picture.  The S&P 500 made it up and over its 200 day moving average during the session but fell back.  The overall market wasn't as strong as the Dow, with the NASDAQ barely registering a gain and dropping well off of its highs.  So we have that to contend with.  But you cannot deny that the recent congestion zone has been broken to the upside on good volume.  My prognosis for a drop here was wrong.  I will however be closely watching what happens here because today may actually have been the time to try the SPY puts.  I'm saying this because we didn't finish near the session highs on the S&P despite the breakout and the NASDAQ had real underperformance which we haven't seen lately.  GE was up 3/8 on heavy volume.  Gold took a hit as the futures fell around twenty bucks.  The US dollar had a good drop as well.  There are no need for safe havens if the markets are going to recover and that is what the market was saying today.  The XAU lost 5 1/3, while GDX shed 1 1/2.  Volume was about average.  Another day like today and my open order for the GDX June calls will get filled.  I'm still going with this idea for now as the short term technical indicators for GDX are finally moving lower towards actually becoming oversold.  However what does trouble me here is the monthly candlestick chart for gold itself.  If we were to close where we are today at the end of the week, the pattern would certainly be bearish for the medium term.  It is a short trading week with only 3 days left to go so we'll see what happens.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was just slightly lower today despite the run up in stocks.  It did not touch the lower Bollinger band or get close to the 200 day moving average.  A touch of the lower Bollinger band would certainly get me more interested in perhaps trying the June SPY puts.  The major indices are short term overbought.  However it is hard to ignore todays positive price action.  The backdrop of the pandemic virus remains but the atmosphere doesn't seem as dire as it once was.  More states are opening up for business and with the warmer weather for now things seem to be on the upswing.  We'll have to see where we go from here.  Europe and Asia had nice gains.  I'd expect to see some follow through in trading tonight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

It was pretty much a lackluster session to end the week as the Dow fell about 9 points on what now is considered light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  We sold off early and then made our way back.  The day turned out to be what we expected.  A pre-holiday Friday that was slow with low volatility.  It was a day to be forgotten as we'll set our sights on Tuesdays open.  GE lost few cents and the volume was light.  Gold was up just over $10 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  My open order for the GDX June calls remains.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower today and is getting ever closer to its lower Bollinger band.  The ideal scenario here is a break of that band and a touch of its 200 day moving average at 24.  That would set up a sell signal for me and the purchase of some SPY June puts.  That could happen sometime next week if the market cooperates which it rarely does.  If that were to occur with the S&P 500 hitting the 3000 level, then all systems would be on go for the purchase of the puts.  The S&P remains short term overbought.  The country is slowly opening back up but the pandemic virus still looms and is not going anywhere anytime soon.  That is the way the overall environment is shaping up.  We're also getting some fresh rumblings of the US/China situation starting to deteriorate.  So there is plenty out there for the market to digest despite the easy money from the Fed.  I'll comb the charts over the long weekend and try and come up with some ideas for next week.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow fell 101 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving back up.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The economic data was weak as expected.  The S&P 500 remains short term overbought.  I'm still hoping that it hits the 3000 level for a chance to buy the SPY June puts.  The market has moved sideways since the big jump up on Monday.  My thinking is that tomorrow will be quiet ahead of a long holiday weekend.  The underlying condition of the pandemic virus in control hasn't changed.  GE was up a few cents and the volume is still good.  Gold fell $25 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU dropped 3 1/2, while GDX lost about a point.  Volume was light.  Both of these indexes finished well off of their lows for the day as any selling in the gold shares is met with buyers.  I'm leaving my open order out there for the GDX June calls.  However it will take more of a drop to get filled.  The short term technical indicators for GDX have rolled over but they are not even close to getting oversold.  I'll be patient as far as putting this trade on for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX moved up slightly today.  The Bollinger bands here are starting to contract, implying that a big move is coming one way or the other.  If we do somehow touch the lower Bollinger band in the coming days, I'll be trying the SPY June puts.  Premiums do remain high due to the extra week in the June option cycle.  But I think it would be worth the risk with the technical backdrop that we are seeing now.  I could be wrong of course and often am.  Gold needs to hold the $1680 level if it does get back there to remain in a trading channel.  My guess is that it won't go that low as the money continues to flow there on any decline like the gold shares.  A break of that level would certainly change things but I don't see that happening at the moment.  Watching and waiting is the strategy for now.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

A bounce back from yesterdays decline as the Dow gained 369 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  This should have the summation index moving higher.  No new news to speak of today.  The country is slowly opening back up amid the pandemic virus.  Technically the S&P remains short term overbought and is approaching its 200 day moving average.  We'll get a bunch of economic data tomorrow and the Fed chairman speaks in the afternoon.  So it has the potential to be a volatile session.  Friday will be a get out of town day before a long weekend.  At least that's how it used to be.  I still favor the SPY June puts as the next trade with that instrument.  GE was up almost 1/4 and volume was lighter than yesterday.  Gold rose $5 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower again.  The XAU was off 1 1/8, while GDX almost shed 2/3.  Volume was light.  We're still short and medium term overbought for gold and the gold shares.  However I would expect the recent trend to continue.  Which means any selling will be quickly met with buyers.  My open order is still out there but we'll need to see a decent drop in GDX for it to be filled.  I'm still advising patience for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX headed back down today but the indicators are not yet fully oversold.  Perhaps a combination of oversold indicators at the same time the VIX touches its lower Bollinger band will set up a signal for the SPY June put trade.  That's just wishful thinking on my part for now because it hasn't happened yet.  But that is one scenario that might set up a trade.  Another would be if the VIX made it back to its 200 day moving average at 24.  There's a case to be made that the worst is over for the stock market and there will be no retest of the March lows.  At least that appears to be what the NASDAQ is saying.  We're just a few hundred points from new all time highs there.  So we'll see how things progress in the coming weeks.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We were sailing along just fine today but in the final hour a report came out that yesterdays pandemic virus vaccine cure doesn't work and the Dow fell 390 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The overall market was not as weak as the Dow and that's a plus.  We were at the mercy of the US/China trade talks and now that's shifted to the next headline about the pandemic virus.  It's a tough game to play.  Economic data remains very weak.  The Fed chairman spoke today but there was nothing new.  The S&P 500 remains short term overbought.  I was looking at the SPY June puts today but it's now too late for that.  Waiting for some kind of set up there but not signal is imminent.  We are still in a sideways channel almost up against the upper Bollinger band.  A rollover here is not out of the possibilities.  GE was off a few cents on good volume.  Gold bounced back and was up a dozen on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU climbed 4 1/2, while GDX was up 1 1/4.  Volume was about average.  I do have an open order out there for some GDX June calls but it will take a drop in the index to get it filled.  That may not happen as any selling in the gold shares is quickly met by buyers.  Overbought here now for almost two months with no end in sight.  It is a trend worth following in my mind.  The money simply continues to flow here and there seems to be plenty of it.  Timing the purchase of the options is the challenge as usual.  I'll try not to be in too much of a hurry here but waiting for a complete oversold reading on the short term indicators most likely isn't going to work.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX finished higher after being down most of the session.  The late hour selling caused that in my view.  The Bollinger bands are contracting here but I'd like to wait until the lower band is reached before taking on a short position.  There's a chance that things just head lower from here depending on what happens with the overnight news.  However there is still plenty of money around to stifle any real bouts of selling I think.  That's a guess as usual.  The options for June are still very pricey, so any trade here has to have a decent signal.  Patience probably isn't a bad idea for now.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trading.  We'll keep an eye on the news tonight and see how it goes tomorrow.

The Dow took off to the upside today and was up over 1000 points until a late sell off.  It finished the session with a gain of 912 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive.  The summation index will be back to trending sideways.  Good news about a possible vaccine for the pandemic virus would be one of the reasons for todays gains.  We also had the Fed chairman talking on TV last night and I guess he didn't spook the market with his comments.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P have moved back up.  We are about to challenge the 200 day moving average at around 3000.  What happens there will probably tell us if this is the beginning of the next leg higher or just another move in the recent sideways consolidation.  GE took off to the upside as well, gaining 3/4 on extremely heavy volume.  Gold dropped on the news of a vaccine with the futures off over twenty bucks.  The US dollar dropped as well.  The XAU fell 1 7/8, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume remains light for the gold shares.  I'm still a believer in the upside for the gold shares and I'm looking at the GDX June calls.  The short term technical indicators here are starting to roll over but remain overbought.  Patience is what is needed here now but I do believe that there will be a chance to pick up the calls for the June option cycle at some point.  Gold heading back to $1680 would do the trick but that may not happen.. Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX moved lower and the technical indicators here have moved back down.  It looks like the sell off last week will be all that we'll get to the downside for now.  The VIX should be heading to its 200 day moving average at 24.  That would be the logical spot to look at the SPY June puts.  However we had quite a gap to the upside at the open for the SPY and that fact cannot be ignored.  Perhaps the market is simply going to move higher from here.  We'll wait and see how this week unfolds.  With an extra week in the June option cycle, there isn't a rush to do things at the moment.  Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week with Europe having some huge gains.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A somewhat quiet expiration Friday as the Dow gained 60 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is moving down.  The economic data was weak as expected but we didn't see a huge market reaction.  Things were lower early but we rallied steady through the day.  Kind of a repeat of yesterdays market action.  Now that we have the option expiration out of the way we'll have to see where we go next week.  I'm still in the longer term bearish camp as the underlying economic conditions haven't changed.  The pandemic virus is in charge and there's still no handle on that.  Things haven't completely collapsed in the markets thanks to the Fed and Congress handing out plenty of money like candy on Halloween.  This simply cannot continue forever as it creates artificial demand that will subside once the money dries up.  I think that it's safe to say that real economic growth will take a while to return.  GE was down almost another 1/4 on pretty heavy volume.  As long as Boeing and the airlines continue to have trouble, GE will languish.  Gold continued higher with the futures gaining $15.  Silver had another stellar session with a big gain and has broken out from near term resistance.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU tacked on 5 1/3, while GDX added 1 3/8.  Volume remains on the light side but there are no apparent sellers here.  The gold shares have broken out from the recent congestion and higher prices seem to be assured from here.  Overbought both short and medium term here as well.  I'll be looking for another entry point to get the GDX calls again for June.  Obviously holding on to the May GDX calls for another day would have been well worth it.  I just didn't have the guts even knowing that we were breaking out.  There was always the chance that today could have been a snap back to the breakout point.  If that was the case then I wouldn't be lamenting selling my position yesterday.  But as always you've just got to keep moving forward in this game.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was just slightly lower and the short term technical indicators are now mid-range.  Based on that, things could go either way here.  The S&P 500 held its lower Bollinger band and has mid-range short term indicators as well.  Patience will have to be the strategy at the moment and even more so with an extra week in the June option cycle.  Premiums are high and the recent volatility doesn't help with trying to get a low entry price.  I am going to continue to follow the gold shares despite the recent run up.  They are overdue for a rest and if they get one here soon that would be the chance to try the GDX June calls.  I will however check all the charts over the weekend and see what's out there to trade.  Europe and Asia were higher to end the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We had a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 377 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The overall market was not as strong as the Dow.  The market fell in the first half hour but had a steady gain for the rest of the day.  No new news to report but we will get a look at retail sales tomorrow.  The Dow did bounce from its 50 day moving average.  I'm still a believer in lower prices going forward as we are in expiration week with all of it peculiarities.  However we have moved to oversold on some of the major stock indices.  So it's a mixed bag at best for now.  GE was off a few cents and volume remained heavy.  Gold rallied as the futures gained around twenty bucks.  Silver broke out and had a stellar day as well.  The US dollar was just slightly higher.  The XAU rose 3 1/4, while GDX added 1 1/8.  Volume remains light here.  I did sell my GDX May calls for a profit.  The gain was 60%.  Of course it could have been better but I used a stop limit order that got bounced around.  Simply getting out at the market would have added around another 10% to the gain.  Sloppy exit as usual.  I really would have liked to have held on to this trade but with only a day left the risk would have been sky high.  I do think that the gold shares are going higher and I will be looking to get the GDX June calls but it may already be too late for that.  There is also an extra week on the June options and the premiums are pricey.  Gold and the gold shares remain in an uptrend and that is something that I think will be worth to continue following.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a reversal today as well and looks like it wants to start heading back down.  That would bode well for the bulls in the near term if it were to occur.  I'm not looking for some huge rally to start here but perhaps a trip back up to the top of the Bollinger band range for the S&P.  That's my best guess at the moment.  We'll see how thing go with the option expiration tomorrow.  Europe and Asia sold off last night but I'd expect to see some rally to end the week there following todays US market action.  Plenty of economic data due tomorrow led by retail sales.  We'll see how the market reacts tomorrow morning. 

Another day of selling as the Dow fell 516 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 8 to 1 negative.  This will turn the summation index down.  The market clearly didn't like what the Fed had to say today.  I do think that we'll head even lower form here but it may not be in a straight line.  The S&P did manage to hold the 2800 level with a rally in the final half hour.  But the tone has changed in the past two sessions and we could just see weakness into Fridays expiration.  That's a guess as usual, however the short term technical indicators are now falling and they haven't gotten oversold yet.  The economic background remains the same with partial openings in different states.  Things will not be returning to normal anytime soon.  The pandemic virus remains in charge.  GE was off another twenty cents on extremely heavy volume.  I can't see any good news there in the near future.  Gold rallied on what I'm guessing is the market decline.  The precious metal futures rose $15 and the US dollar was up as well.  The gold shares didn't participate to the upside and instead followed the overall market.  The XAU and GDX rose just 1/4 each on light volume.  No volume and no interest lately for the gold shares.  My GDX May calls are still showing a loss with only two trading sessions left.  I've had a couple chances in the past two days to exit this trade with a small gain.  I probably should take that opportunity if it presents itself again tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continued to rise today and the technical indicators here still have room to run higher.  That's another reason why the decline may not be done with just yet.  The overall market was weak but not as weak as the Dow.  I don't think that this is the beginning of a retest of the lows from March.  I'm thinking that this is more of a trip back to the 50 day moving averages for the major indexes.  If that's the case we're about half way there.  How things shape up when we get there will determine the next move.  That's my hypothesis at the moment.  I'm more focused on what gold does in the next two days because that's where my current trade is.  With any luck perhaps we'll see a rally in the gold shares early in the morning and I'll have a chance to get out with a small loss or profit.  This trade is yet another that just isn't going as planned.  Europe and Asia were lower and I'd expect more of the same tonight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Some downside today as the Dow fell 457 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index sideways.  Fear of the pandemic virus crept back into the picture with testimony about it in the senate.  There was a pop higher right at the open today but then constant selling after that.  The final hour was a complete collapse and that certainly doesn't bode well for tomorrow.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the S&P.  Perhaps a trip down to the 200 day moving average at around 2700 is in the cards.  Perhaps I should have held on to those SPY May puts that I had.  No, not really as my timing on that particular trade was off from the beginning.  GE was off about twenty cents and the volume was good.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  There seems to be no interest in the gold shares.  My GDX May calls are now showing even more of a loss as the gold shares will probably sink with the overall market if things continue to head lower.  There was a chance to exit this trade early in the day with a gain but I did not take it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked higher and does have plenty of room to run up if it so pleases.  It did in fact bounce off of its lower Bollinger band.  The short term technical indicators have now reversed to the upside with plenty of room to run.  Perhaps the market will sell off for expiration week which would be the opposite of the usual positive bias.  But there's still three days to go before the end of the week so we'll just have to wait and see.  That said, the daily candlestick charts for the major averages look bearish and I'd expect some more decline to come in the near term.  Too late for the SPY May puts now in my opinion but perhaps that trade could still work.  Not worth the risk in my opinion with only 3 days to go.  After today there's a chance that the rally form March is now over.  Keep that in mind going forward despite the Fed continuing to pump up the liquidity.  Interesting times.  I'll be keeping an eye on gold overnight to see if there's any flight to safety.  That is probably the only chance of saving the GDX May call trade at this point.  Europe and Asia were generally lower.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A mixed bag to begin option expiration week as the Dow fell 109 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ positive.  The NASDAQ continues to lead the way and that cannot be overlooked.  Getting short term overbought for the major stock indices but not all the way there yet.  Underlying conditions remain the same as the pandemic virus isn't just going to go away.  We'll get some economic data this week and it will be dismal.  But as we saw last week the market doesn't care.  GE lost 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold fell $17 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU dropped 4 points, while GDX shed a point.  Volume was light.  I did place an open order for the GDX May calls and it was filled.  It is showing a small loss.  This could be an ill advised expiration week trade as the short term technical indicators for the gold shares have rolled over.  The daily candlestick chart for GDX is bearish after todays price action as well.  We'll need to see a turnaround in short order or this trade will be a loser.  Regardless, if the gold shares do sell off here I'll be looking to get some GDX June calls.  I do believe that the trend is up for gold and the gold shares on a short, medium and long term basis.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX keeps heading lower as it crawls along its lower Bollinger band.  This cannot last forever and will lead to some type of decline soon in my opinion.  The market has been quite resilient lately though despite all of the negative news.  That cannot be ignored either.  My next trade is already on and I'm not exactly sure that it was the right decision.  I may have simply placed it in response to the losing SPY trade of last week.  I do believe in the gold shares moving higher but perhaps should have waited for the indicators to get completely oversold.  However that's something that hasn't happened for quite a while and every simply decline in the gold shares has been met with buyers.  We'll see if that's the case this time around as well.  Asia was higher and Europe generally lower to begin the week overseas.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Depression level unemployment but the market doesn't care as the Dow soared 455 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The jobs report was horrible as expected but the market ignored it.  My SPY put trade got killed as it was a loser from the open this morning.  Actually it was a loser from the start when I placed it yesterday.  The loss was 70%.  I had it in my mind to be short ahead of the employment report and it cost me.  The technical basis for the trade was iffy.  Or maybe it just wasn't there.  Yesterdays rise should have been a clue as I've seen it before.  The market has a tendency move on the jobs report as it does the day before.  Now what was I thinking?  The short term technical indicators were mid-range which implies things could go either way.  It was not a good technical set up.  But I did the trade anyway.  I could not save myself from myself.  I think that I was just anxious to put on a trade because I hadn't in a while.  That was just plain stupid and it cost me.  Back to the markets, the Dow was stronger than the overall market today in a switch from the recent pattern.  Not yet completely overbought for the major averages.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume remains good.  Gold fell about $15 on the futures as the weak jobs numbers did not have the usual effect here.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  The gold shares continues to show strength but remain very overbought.  I would like to perhaps try a trade here with them but should probably go out to the June option cycle.  Being patient and waiting for them to get oversold would be a good idea as well.  Mentally I'm doing OK despite the losing trade.  I'm pretty sure that I know what wrong there and it's my own shortcomings.  The entry and exit were not important as the overall mental state of mind I was in was the overwhelming factor in determining that loss.  That can be fixed by adhering to strict rules if I'm able to follow them.  The battle is really with oneself at times in the game and nothing more or less than that.  I was not up to the challenge this time around despite the facts that surrounded that trade.  The VIX has now touched its lower Bollinger band.  Combine that with the oversold short term technical condition of this indicator and you have the recipe for a decline in stocks.  We'll see if that occurs next week.  Will I be able to try and take advantage of it?  We'll see.  Right now I doubt it after the mistake of the most recent attempt.  However I'll regroup over the weekend and go from there.  The overall economic backdrop hasn't changed.  The pandemic virus remains and states are trying to open up for business but it's going slowly.  The US/China soap opera is back to the forefront.  Last night the two had a trade talk on the phone and it was the excuse for the S&P futures rallying overnight.  Today Trump threw some cold water on that with one of his comments but the market ignored it.  But we won't ignore the markets reaction.  Previously something like this would have caused volatility to soar.  Today it meant nothing.  Take note.  I'll be going over the charts as usual this weekend and try to come up with something for expiration week.  Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week as money is heading into stocks around the world again.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The market had a gap higher at the open and took off to the upside.  The Dow gained 211 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is back to moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way.  The Dow was up more than 400 points in the morning but gradually sold off the rest of the day.  My order for the SPY May puts was filled when the market opened and I immediately regretted the decision.  Had I waited I could have gotten a better strike price for the same amount of money.  Once again my trading skill wasn't up to the task of the SPY.  This trade is showing a small loss but it could be worse than that.  I did however want to be short going into the jobs report and at least that was accomplished.  But I don't have a good feeling about this idea now.  There's no reason for the market to rally like it did as new claims for unemployment remain in the millions.  The market always knows more than we do.  GE was up 1/8 on good volume.  Gold took off to the upside with the futures gaining almost forty bucks.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 4 3/8, while GDX added 1 1/3.  Volume was light but there are no sellers.  I canceled my open order for the GDX May calls as it was not close to getting filled.  Obviously I should have remained focused on the gold shares as the up trend is clearly in place there.  Overbought for weeks on end there and way above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  This can't last forever but who knows?  Maybe it will.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX almost made it down to touch the lower Bollinger band and remains oversold.  I was certainly surprised by the market strength today ahead of what seemingly is sure to be a horrible jobs number tomorrow.  But as always it's not the news but the markets reaction to it that counts.  Still, I can't see a rally on the back of what will be the worst unemployment rate since the mortgage meltdown.  If I'm lucky, I'll be able to get out of the SPY May put trade with a small profit and head back to the drawing board.  the entry was already lousy, so I'll have to see if I can do better on the exit.  Unless we see a huge decline tomorrow it will probably be best to get out of this trade before the weekend.  That's the idea at the moment.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trading action.  We'll look for the jobs report early and close out the trading week tomorrow.

The market fell apart in the final hour again as the Dow lost 218 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now starting to turn around.  The NASDAQ was positive though, so the bulls can hang on to that.  My open order for the May SPY puts was not filled and I'm leaving it out there.  Frustrating is the only way to describe it.  Perhaps I should have moved the price up but it doesn't matter now.  The Bollinger bands for the S&P are starting to converge which implies a big move coming soon.  I do believe that it will be to the downside.  My inability to put a trade on here is troubling.  I don't have the greatest sell signal here but with the jobs report on Friday, I don't know who would be buying stocks after that.  It's probably past the ideal time to get the puts though unless we somehow have a rally tomorrow.  GE was off about 1/4 and the volume remains heavy.  Gold fell today with the futures down over twenty bucks.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 3 1/2, while GDX dropped almost 1 1/8.  Volume was light.  I placed another open order for the GDX May calls today and I'm leaving it out there.  Another day like today would get it filled.  Still short term overbought for the gold shares but that has been the case for weeks.  I do believe that gold will rally with a terrible jobs report.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX just had a little bump up today and remains oversold.  We'll get some economic data out tomorrow with the jobless claims probably being the most watched.  With only seven days to go in the May option cycle, the risk is pretty high to take on any trades.  Combine that with the volatility premium that is still stuck in the option pricing and you can see how tough a trade will be to put on here.  Anything wrong in the entry timing or direction will be fatal.  I'm hoping that I'm up to the task.  I really think that buyers have dried up for now with the late day selling that we've seen in the market the past couple of days.  My regret at the moment is not being able to take advantage of it for now.  But you've got to keep moving in this game.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow closed up 133 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow once again.  We did have much better gains during the session but dropped hard in the final hour.  My open order for some SPY May puts wasn't filled but I'm leaving it out there.  Not sure why we fell in the last hour but I am not a believer in the rally going on for much longer.  I could be wrong.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are now mid-range.  In that respect, things could go either way.  I'll keep an eye on the futures tonight and take it from there.  I am however pretty committed to wanting to be short ahead of the jobs report.  GE was down a penny and the volume remains heavy.  Gold was up $7 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU gained 1 3/4, while GDX rose 3/4.  Volume was light.  NEM rallied after dropping early on its earnings report.  GOLD reports tomorrow.  It appears that I've missed my chance for the gold share calls for the May option cycle.  Things here are overbought and staying that way.  Every order that I've tried here hasn't been filled.  I do still like the June calls here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains short term oversold but there is some room to go lower before it touches the Bollinger band again.  I certainly have not been able to read this indicator properly since the huge run up to the 85 level.  Only 8 days left in the May option cycle.  The late price action today was clearly negative but some of the short term technical indicators for the market are trying to turn back up.  I suppose I'm hoping for some kind of stall here to get filled on my open SPY put order.  But there's also a chance that things simply head higher from here as well.  I don't want to make a trade simply for the sake of making one.  Plus trading the SPY requires some quick thinking since it is such a fast moving trading instrument.  I hope that I'm up for the challenge.  I also won't make any profits by sitting on the sidelines forever.  So it's a tough call exactly what to do here, unlike other trade set ups.  I'll look things over again tonight and go from there.  Some foreign markets were closed overnight but what were open were generally higher.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A one day reversal to the upside to start the week as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 26 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving up but not with the strength of the prior week.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that is a plus for the bulls.  Some states are opening back up but it isn't a mass return to business as usual.  There will be stops and starts to getting things back open again.  We only are concerned with the market action and direction.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P have stopped falling and are trying to turn around.  I'm still in the bearish camp here.  A light volume rally to 2900 before the employment report on Friday would be the ideal scenario in my mind.  I'm still looking at the SPY May puts.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was heavy.  Layoffs are coming there.  Gold was up over $10 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU added 2 1/4, while GDX rose 3/4.  Volume was light.  I did place an open order for some GDX May calls overnight but it wasn't filled.  NEM reports earnings tomorrow and that could be the key to the price action in GDX.  GOLD reports on Wednesday.  I still like the idea of the GDX May calls but time is running out and the earnings reports are a wild card.  If we get some near term weakness in GDX I'll probably try the calls.  If not I'll simply have to wait for the June option cycle.  The short term technical indicators here have turned back up.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX  was lower today and looks like it may be headed back down to the lower Bollinger band.  It that occurs, it would set up the SPY may put trade ahead of the employment report.  The jobs numbers on Friday will be terrible and I don't see how the market would rally off of that.  But the market will go where it wants to and the reaction to the news is always more important than the news itself.  Again, a light volume levitation from here for a couple of more days would set up the trade for the index puts.  So we'll be keeping our fingers crossed as we watch and wait.  Europe and Asia were lower yesterday but we'll see how things go tonight.

We moved lower to begin the month of May as the Dow fell 622 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Poor earnings guidance will be the excuse for todays decline.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the S&P 500 and they have room to move further.  I expect more weakness in the beginning of next week.  Unfortunately none of my orders for the SPY May puts were filled.  There may be another chance for this idea if we see some near term strength but I doubt that will happen.  It's just another missed trade.  At least the idea was on the right path.  GE fell over 1/4 on heavy volume.  Gold bounced back and the futures were up $15.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU rose 3 2/3, while GDX gained a point.  Volume was light here.  I did place an overnight order for the GDX May calls but it wasn't filled.  I may try this again on Monday.  The gold shares did have a one day reversal to the upside today, opening lower and closing higher.  I might be too late with this idea as well.  There's only two weeks left in the May option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The VIX did move up today but not as much as expected given the severity of the decline.  I'm not sure what that means.  I'm still in the longer term bearish camp though.  The weekly candlestick chart for the S&P looks ominous with a bearish shooting star for this week.  Combine that with the gap opening lower that we saw today and it isn't a stretch to say that we're heading lower.  How to profit from here is the question.  The volume on the gold shares today wasn't inspiring and that could be an issue for buying the calls going forward.  I'm going to have to consider this and other things over the weekend.  It appears that the train has left the station for the two trades that I had in mind.  I'm not a fan of chasing things but sometimes it does work out.  Some foreign markets were closed for May day but those that remained open were lower.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.