A mixed bag to end the week but the Dow managed a gain of 238 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ posted a small loss, while the S&P 500 finished basically unchanged. The S&P remains short term overbought. I'm leaving my open order for the SPY October puts out there but might adjust it over the weekend. Still on a sell signal for one of our indicators that we like but it can be early at times. But not more than a couple of days. We will most likely try and buy the puts on Monday barring a huge rally. Gold was up $44 on the futures to a new all time high and also crossed the $3900 level. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU was up 3/4 and GDX finished flat. Volume was light. Gold up and the gold shares really didn't follow. That is not a plus for the bulls. GDX remains short term overbought as it has been for weeks. Will gold reach $4000 next week? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished little changed. The short term indicators are trending higher but not yet overbought. I'm still not sure where the VIX is headed next. Another positive week for stocks as the rally seemingly has nothing to derail it. Plenty of money still to go around. It will end at some point but we certainly don't know what the catalyst will be. Two weeks left in the October option cycle. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Europe and Asia finished Friday on the plus side except for the Hang Seng and the DAX. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow gained 78 points in an up and down session to a new all time high again. The advance/declines were slightly negative and volume was heavy. The summation index continues to trend lower. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted new records as well. The S&P continues to be short term overbought and continues to move higher. This has been the case for a couple of months now. We're getting another sell signal from one of our indicators. I've placed an open order for the SPY October puts and I'm leaving it out there. Ideally this order would be filled early next week but markets rarely cooperate. It is also a more tricky trading environment with the US government shutdown. We'll stick with the technicals though. Gold dipped $17 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates ended flat. The XAU lost 1 2/3 and GDX fell 1/4. Volume was heavy. It was a very volatile session for the gold shares as GDX had an intraday swing of 4 points. Not sure what it all means but the gold shares finished well up from the lows of the session. Still considering the GDX October puts for now but really looking at the SPY options for the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which once again doesn't fit with an up market. The short term indicators here are moving up from the mid-range level. Still not sure what's next for the VIX. Asia and Europe were higher with the exception of the FTSE. We'll see where things go on Friday and take it from there.

We had a one day upside reversal to begin the month of October as stocks opened lower and closed higher. The Dow rose 43 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way up. Even a US government shutdown wasn't enough to derail the bulls. However another problem to deal with here is that the economic reports might be delayed. We won't know when important trading data will be released. As if trading itself wasn't hard enough as it is. The DOW and S&P 500 set new all time highs. The NASDAQ is almost there. I'm still considering the SPY October puts if we stay positive into Friday. The S&P remains short term overbought. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures to another new all time high. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 3 2/3, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was average. I canceled my open order for the GDX October puts. I'll reconsider this idea tonight. GDX remains short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished unchanged and the short term indicators are hanging around the mid-range level. Not sure what's next now for the VIX. More than the usual amount of uncertainty right now but the market continues higher. There is no overhead resistance. Liquidity doesn't seem to be a problem. It's a teflon market at the moment. Nothing sticks to it on the downside. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of Japan. I'll keep watch on the overnight headlines.

End of the month buying as the Dow gained 91 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still heading lower. The McClellan oscillator gave a signal last night for a big move within the next two days. Didn't get it today so we'll see about tomorrow. Today was a sideways affair until a mild rally in the final two hours. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 led the way. The short term indicators for the S&P are slowly moving higher. I still think that new all time highs are coming soon for the NASDAQ and S&P. The Dow closed at a record today. The question now is how to postion ourselves ahead of Fridays jobs report. If we continue higher ahead of Friday I might try the SPY October puts but it would be risky. The market is overbought on many of the indicators though. Gold was up $32 on the futures to another new all time high. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU was up 2 7/8, while GDX rose 2/3. Volume was average. GDX remains short term overbought. I did place an overnight order for the GDX October puts and I'm leaving it out there. Not a lot of money invovled so I'm willing to take the risk here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today which again doesn't fit with an up market. The Bollinger bands on the daily chart are getting tighter. Still mid-range for the short term indicators here. My guess would be that the VIX drops and we see a rally for stocks but who knows? Beginning of October tomorrow. Europe finished higer and Asia was mixed again. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A positive start to the week as the Dow gained 69 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's plus. End of the month tomorrow. The highlight of the week will be the jobs report on Friday. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to stall after turning back up. They are not as overbought as they have been. My guess is that we'll be heading back to new all time highs at some point this week. Gold was up $47 to a new all time high on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 3 points and GDX gained a point. Volume was average. The gold shares did finish well below their highs on the session. I'm still considering the GDX October puts and may place an order overnight. The 5 wave upside pattern for GDX that began in August that I thought was valid has been negated. GDX has moved above what I thought was the fifth and final wave higher. However on the gold itself weekly chart it appears that gold is in the 5th and final wave higher from 2022. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which doesn't fit with an up market. The short term indicators here are at mid-range so it could go either way from here. I'm still not sure what to expect next from this indicator. Asia was mixed and Europe little changed to begin the trading week. There is a potential US government shutdown tomorrow night but the market doesn't seem to care. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 300 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. We opened with a gap higher, gave it all back and then rallied for the rest of the session. The inflation data came in where expected. The Dow led the way higher today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. However we did turn around where the S&P short term indicators have in the current rally so far. That leads us to believe that the rally will continue from here. The NASDAQ is beginning to lag though and that may be a cause for concern. The summation index is heading lower as well. We'll see how it goes at the beginning of next week but for now it appears the selling is done in the short term. Gold was up $23 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up 6 1/3, while GDX climbed 1 1/2. Volume was average. I adjusted my order for the GDX October calls and eventually canceled it ahead of the weekend. The short term indicators for GDX are turning sideways and it remains overbought. I'm going to have to take another look at the GDX put idea over the weekend as my 5 wave count in the current up trend might be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators here have moved lower. The VIX now looks like it is heading lower and that would be supportive for stocks. Plenty of work to do over the weekend to come up with an idea for next week. Asia down and Europe up to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

More selling today as sellers continue to have the upper hand and the Dow fell 174 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ barely led things lower followed by the S&P. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over with room to go. They are close to the mid-range level though and that has stopped every minor decline that we've seen on the way up. So if things hold up here we would have to figure that the selling is done for now. If not then we may actually see some kind of correction or extended decline. Tomorrow should tell a lot when the market reacts to the inflation data. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates moved up as well. The XAU gained 2 2/3 and GDX added 3/4. Volume was about average. GDX remains short term overbought and we are still considering the October puts here on a move back to the 75 level. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up today which fits with a down market. The short term indicators are on the overbought side of things but not completely so. I think the VIX could go either way here. Again, a lot will have to do with how the market reacts to the inflation data tomorrow. No idea how that will shape up so we'll watch and wait for now. Europe and Asia finished lower with the exception of Japan. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.