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Monday, August 18, 2025

Today was your typical summer Monday going nowhere type of session. The Dow fell 34 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 finished basically unchanged. The S&P remains short term overbought. It is a light week for economic data. Some major retailers will be reporting earnings but that's about it. I will probably try and let this week pass before trying the next trade. Gold was off $4 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on extremely light volume. Volume has dried up for the gold shares lately. GDX remains in a sideways channel and short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today and remains short term oversold. Nothing new to report here. Perhaps we have finally hit the summer doldrums. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower to start the week. We'll see if things pick up tomorrow.

Friday, August 15, 2025

We had a one day downside reversal on many of the stock indices but the Dow managed a gain of 35 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posting losses. Retail sales came in where expected. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. If it heads lower from here the negative RSI divergence on the daily chart will be valid. I am already looking at the SPY September puts but the premiums are high. Gold finished flat on the session. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was up two points and GDX added 1/2. Volume remains light. GDX is still short term overbought and has been trending sideways for a week. No trades planned there for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits with an overall down market. Still short term oversold here. The Dow hit a new intra-day high today but did not close at a record. Perhaps next week. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. The extra week in the September option cycle makes it tough to find a reasonably priced option at the moment. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, August 14, 2025

The inflation data came in hotter than expected but after a small gap lower at the open the market basically went sideways. The Dow was off 11 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now starting to track sideways. Bad news was not met with extended selling as liquidity doesn't seem to be a problem for this market. Perhaps it is the positive option expiration bias but we don't know for sure. The negative breadth does show some underlying weakness. But we can't argue with price. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 both ended the day about unchanged. We'll get retail sales tomorrow on expiration Friday. The technical configuration for the S&P remains the same. Short term overbought with a possible negative RSI divergence. Gold was down $22 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The XAU fell two points and GDX shed 1/3. Volume is still pretty light here. GDX remains in short term overbought territory. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today but still at a low overall level. The short term indicators are oversold. Not sure what to expect next here on the VIX but being this low it's expected for the rally in stocks to continue. We will be rolling into the September option cycle that will have an extra week in it. Premiums will be high. Asia was lower except for India, while Europe was higher overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Continuing higher as the Dow climbed 463 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned back up. The Dow was the leader today and is back to approaching new all time highs. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 set new records today. The S&P 500 is short term overbought on some of its indicators. There is a potential negative RSI divergence on its daily chart though. Only two days to go in the August option cycle. I'll try my best not to do anything stupid here as I've already booked a loss this week. Gold added ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. The volume for the gold shares has dried up lately. Not sure what's going on with that. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX is still heading lower. It is short term oversold. As long as it continues to be at these low levels the rally will go on. PPI data due out tomorrow. Asia and Europe were higher overnight as money finds a home in stocks around the world. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Inflation data came in where expected and the markets took off to the upside as the Dow gained 483 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. New all time highs for the NASDAQ and S&P 500. No overhead resistance now. The S&P remains short term overbought on some of its indicators. My SPY August put trade went from a small gain to a medium loss overnight. My stop loss order was hit for a 40% drop on the trade. The techncial set up was OK for this idea but not the best that it could have been. I think that I was anxious to make a trade since I hadn't done one in a few months. I also think that I relied too much for a favorable reaction to the economic data on the trade rather than the techncial set up. Although the entry was good, the gap higher at todays open doomed this trade. The theme for me so far this year has been missed trades and losing trades. Needs to be corrected. Gold was off five bucks today. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU was up 2 2/3, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was pretty light. GDX continues to be short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was sharply lower today and is now below the 15 level. The short term indicators here are oversold. During rallies they remain that way and that might happen now. Three days left in the August option cycle and I should remain on the sidelines. But who knows? I might try the August puts again ahead of Friday but it would be very risky. Asia and Europe were up for the most part. India and Germany posted losses. If the up/down pattern holds the S&P will be lower tomorrow. We'll see.

Monday, August 11, 2025

The market continues with its alternating up and down day pattern as the Dow fell 200 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trending lower. It was quiet for much of the session until we got some last minute gyrations. The Dow led the way lower and that isn't the most bearish scenario. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 posted small losses. The short term indicators for the S&P are beginning to stall. I did place an order for the SPY August puts this morning and this time it got filled near the high for the day. The entry point was spot on. It is showing a small profit at the moment. Tomorrows inflation data will probably determine the fate of this idea. Gold lost $90 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU fell a point and GDX dipped 1/3. Volume was light. Gold got clobbered and the gold shares did not. That is a positive for the gold share indices. GDX remains short term overbought. Money simply continues to flow into this area. Mentally I'm feeling a little tired. The VIX was up today and that fits a down market. The short term indicators here are trying to turn back up. If successful, the market will continue lower and the SPY put idea will work. If not we'll probably head up to new all time highs. Tomorrow will most likely be the key. Asia higher and Europe lower to start the trading week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Friday, August 08, 2025

We've been moving back and forth between gains and losses each day for the past week. The Dow gained 207 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led the charge and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a decent gain and is almost to its upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators here are moving higher with room to go. I might have to reconsider my SPY August put idea at this rate. Something to ponder over the weekend. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on below average volume. GDX is now short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. Getting to short term oversold on the indicators but not all the way there yet. Plenty of work to do over the weekend as I have to try and figure out what to do next week. The short term trades are not my best efforts usually. However we'll see how it goes this time around. The stock market has shown a lot of resilience lately and it may not pay to go against that. But we'll have to wait and see what happens over the weekend. Europe was mixed on Friday and Asia lower with the exception of Japan. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.