Lower today to end the week as the Dow fell 453 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The jobs report was much weaker than expected and oil prices surged. That led to another huge gap lower at the open and the market tried to recover but could not. Once again the NASDAQ led things south. The S&P 500 had a steep loss and finally closed below the support of 6800. The trend now is down. The short term indicators here have turned lower with room to go before hitting oversold. Lower prices are now expected. Perhaps we'll see a big one day rally in order to try the SPY puts but that isn't the best trading strategy. Gold was up $83 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was off 2 1/4 and GDX shed 1/3. Volume was a bit above average. Gold up and the gold shares down is still the near term picture. The gold shares are following the overall market. GDX closed right on the up trend line that began in November as the 50 day moving average holds for now. I did leave my open order for the GDX March puts out there but will reconsider this idea over the weekend. I'm beginning to hear more talk now of gold falling in the media and we usually like to be contrary to what is being widely reported. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX jumped today and closed at 29 and change. The short term indicators here took off as well and some are now in overbought territory. In my view the decline that we've seen so far has been pretty orderly. The would change if the VIX continues to spike. There will be much work to do with the charts over the next two days to find a path forward. Not to mention being at the risk of the next major headline. I'll do what I can to try and figure things out. Asia was higher with the exception of India and Europe lower to finish out the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Selling resumed today as the Dow fell 784 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The Dow by far led the way lower today and that's not the worst scenario. The S&P 500 once again traded below the 6800 level only to make it back and close above it. The short term indicators for the S&P are hanging around the mid-range level. It appears as though the S&P wants to put in some kind of a bottom here as it keeps coming back to close above 6800. But it is a volatile, event driven environment we find ourselves in. Things still could go either way for the S&P. We don't have any plans for the SPY March options right now but that could change. Premiums remain high but there is plenty of time left in the March option cycle. Gold dropped $45 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 17 3/4, while GDX lost 4 1/8. Volume was good. The short term indicators for GDX are back to pointing down and are not yet oversold. GDX did manage to come back and close above the up trend line at 101. It also bounced off of its 50 day moving average. Regardless, we are still bearish on gold and the gold shares here. Hoping for some kind of light volume levitation in the coming days to purchase the GDX March puts again. My open order for them remains out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits a down market. The short term indicators on the VIX are moving back up. Still above the 20 level which says volatility will remain. The jobs report is out tomorrow and unless it has some big surprise I doubt it will make much difference given the current market conditions. Tougher than usual trading but there are opportunities for those that can find them. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the volatile week tomorrow.

Buyers showed up today as the Dow gained 238 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is beginning to stall again. The NASDAQ led the way and that's positive. The S&P 500 had a decent gain and the short term indicators here have turned up. But we are still in an event driven environment so things change in a hurry. That goes for both directions. Yesterdays climb to back above the 6800 level is encouraging for the bulls though. With the technical indicators still hovering around mid-range we don't have any clear signal here yet. Gold was up $23 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates higher. The XAU was up 2 points and GDX added 1/2. Volume was a bit below average. The short term indicators here are beginning to move sideways at around the mid-range level. I have placed another open order for the GDX March puts and I'm leaving it out there. Ideally we'd like to see another light volume move higher in order to buy the puts. Markets rarely cooperate. There is an up trend line for GDX that began last November and remains intact. It comes in at the 101 level. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but remains above the 20 level. The short term indicators on the VIX have turned lower. It is possible that the rise in the VIX is over as it reached 28 this week. But in a news driven market like the one we're in now, anything goes. Combine that with a lack of a good technical signal and you can see what we're up against. Asian markets had steep losses led by Korea. Europe was higher. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

It was another volatile day on Wall street as we again saw a huge gap lower at the open with the market spending the rest of the day trying to recover. The Dow fell 403 points after being down well over a thousand early on. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. Volume was pretty heavy again. The summation index is trying to turn lower. The NASDAQ continues to be the leader to the downside and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 traded well below support at 6800 during the day but came back to close above it. The short term indicators here have turned lower with room to go. 6800 somehow held today but I'm not sure that it will for the rest of the week. Headline risk is high as we are at the mercy of the next wartime event. Gold got clobbered as the futures fell over two hundred points. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates but they did drop back from the highs of the day. The XAU fell almost 38 points and GDX lost around 10. Volume was extremely heavy to the downside. The short term indicators on GDX have turned down with room to go. I bailed out of the GDX March put trade but I do still like this idea going forward. My timing getting in was early and the exit today certainly could have been better. GDX can certainly continue to fall from here but the volatility risk right now is pretty high. If we see another rise in the gold shares near term, I'll try the GDX puts again. The gain on the trade was 110%. However with a premature entry followed by a lackluster exit it leaves much to be desired. Hopefully the trading tactics will improve with the next effort. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher today but fell from its highs. Still above the 20 level and we are seeing the volatility that comes with that. The short term indicators here are moving higher and are not yet overbought. So things should remain interesting for the near term. We've got the jobs report due on Friday but will it even matter with the events going on right now in the world? In times like this it is probably best to keep positions small and take profits when you have them. Still plenty of time remaining in the March option cycle. Asia and Europe were down as players head for the exits. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We had a dramatic one day upside reversal for some of the major indices but the Dow fell 73 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still in a sideways channel. War in Iran broke out over the weekend and that helps to explain the various price action that we were seeing on Friday. Stocks opened with a huge gap lower to begin the day but fought there way back for the rest of the session. The S&P 500 bounced off of the 6800 level which remains in place for now at the bottom of the two month sideways consolidation we find ourselves in. The short term indicators here are at mid-range so things could go either way here. The NASDAQ led things back and that's a plus for the bulls. However we are in a place right now that is dominated by geo-political tensions and outright aggression. The trading is never easy. Gold rallied $105 on the futures in the flight to safety. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU slipped 1 1/8, while GDX was off 1/2 on above average volume. The gold shares came back from the worst levels on the day. However with gold itself up and the gold shares down it does raise some more questions about what is going on here. I've still got the GDX March puts at a loss for now. GDX is still short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did come back from its best levels. Above the 20 level and that usually means more volatility to come. The short term indicators on the VIX are moving up from the mid-range level. Should be an interesting week. How long I hold on to the GDX put trade is the main question for me at the moment. Asia and Europe were lower as fear and uncertainty rule for now. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

More selling today but it could have been worse as the Dow fell 521 points on pretty heavy end of the month volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The Dow led things lower today. The inflation data came in a bit higher than expected. A final hour rally kept things from being worse. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to flatten out at the mid-range level. The S&P remains stuck in a trading range. Not sure what's next here as you could make a case either way. Gold was up $86 on the futures today. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dropped. That doesn't really fit with a higher than expected inflation number but the market always knows more than we do. The XAU gained over 7 1/2, while GDX was up 1 7/8. Both hit new all time highs. Volume was still on the light side. The short term indicators for GDX remain overbought and staying there which occurs during rallies like the one we are seeing now. My GDX March puts are solid losers and I should have just dumped them and taken the loss today. My position is now far out of the money. The only thing is has going for it is plenty of time left until option expiration. But I should be in cut the loss mode. However I never trust light volume rallies and that is what GDX is in. But markets can go on longer than you can stay liquid. Mentally is a little bit of a downer. This GDX put trade was one that perhaps I should not have taken. The gold shares were continuing higher even when gold was just hanging around. The signs were there that the rally could possibly continue and it has. Now I'm holding a losing position over the weekend which clouds my mental view for the next possible trade. The VIX was higher today but closed below 20 and off of the best levels on the session. The short term indicators here are trying to move higher. Not sure what's coming next for this indicator. Europe was lower and Asia higher with the exception of India to close the week. I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

A mixed picture today as the Dow managed a gain of 17 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had losses, with the NASDAQ down over 1%. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P have now turned lower but it did come up off of the worst levels on the day. End of the month tomorrow and inflation data due. The NASDAQ continues to lag and that is usually not a good sign. Gold was off $17 on the futures. The US dollar was a touch higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU climbed 12 1/4 and GDX was up 2 1/2 to a new all time high. Volume was just below average. The gold shares are leading gold and that is a positive. It appears that my idea for the GDX March puts is not going to work out. GDX is short term overbought and in the midst of a light volume rally. My timing seems to be early here and unless we see some decline in GDX tomorrow this trade will be a loser. It is now posting a modest loss. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today but down from the highest levels on the session. The up trend line from January remains in place. The short term indicators for the VIX now look mixed. Asia was lower except for Japan and Europe finished the day up. We'll see how the market reacts to tomorrows data and take it from there.