Sellers took over today and the market got clobbered. The Dow fell 748 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to turn down. Not sure exactly what happened today but the techncial landscape has changed. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 dropped 1 3/4% and back to its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here have now rolled over, heading lower with room to go. We will have to figure out if today was expiration related or the beginning of something sustained to the downside. I'm inclined to think that it's the latter but we'll have to go over things this weekend to be sure. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was a little higher and interest rates dropped. The gold shares followed the overall market lower. The XAU fell 6 2/3, while GDX dropped 1 1/2. Volume was good to the downside. Today GDX broke through the up trend line that had been in place since thestart of 2025. The short term indicators here are now moving lower with room to go. If GDX gets to short term oversold I'm going to try the calls here. I don't think that traders have lost interest in gold yet as the metal itself continues to attract capital. Ideally if the stock market tanks and takes GDX with it that would be the time to purchase some gold share calls. However the market rarely cooperates with your best laid plans. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped up today and closed on its upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators have moved up from oversold. I thought that the VIX would continue lower from here and that was wrong. Not sure what to expect next here as we don't know if today was a one day wonder of the beginning of something real to the downside for stocks. I'll go over the charts this weekend to try and come up with a near term game plan for next week. Rolling into the March option cycle. Europe was mixed and Asia higher with the exception of India to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

An early sell off this morning but it was followed by buying for the rest of the session. The Dow fell 451 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to trend sideways again. There seems to be a worldwide exit from equities for the past couple of days but not so much in the US. The Dow led the way lower today and that's not the worst case scenario. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I'm still in the process of considering what the next SPY option trade will be. Expiration Friday on tap and moving to the March option cycle early will have high premiums. Waiting on a decent technical signal to get the next idea. This is one of those times where you just got to have some patience but that isn't always easy. Gold was up $16 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were slightly down. The XAU gained 2 3/4 and GDX up up about 3/4. Volume was light. GDX remains short term overbought. NEM reports earnings after the closing bell. I might consider the GDX puts again in the March option cycle. GDX remains pretty far above its 50 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but off of the highest levels on the session. Remaining short term oversold but the daily candlestick chart still looks like it wants to go lower. For now it looks like the VIX has support at 14.75 that it can't get through for lower readings and higher stock prices. We'll keep an eye on what occurs going forward. Expiration Friday will be a toss-up as usual. Asia was down and Europe mostly lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Drifting higher as the Dow gained 71 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. Another new all time high for the S&P 500. It remains short term overbought and still up against the upper Bollinger band. That is why I don't expect any sharp move higher for now but we'll see. Also the negative breadth today along with a drop in the TRAN could mean that we'll see some actual selling tomorrow. But it is option expiration week so anything goes. Gold finished flat on the session. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates were little changed. The XAU was fractionally lower and GDX finished unchanged. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX have moved a bit lower but remain overbought. We haven't seen any follow through selling to Fridays losses so that's a plus for the bulls. However not following gold back up in the short term raises some questions. We'll look to the March option cycle here but not sure which way to go. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today. Still short term oversold. The daily candlestick chart here looks like that it wants to go lower which would be bullish for stocks. Only a couple of trading days left in the week and we are remaining on the sidelines. I'm still waiting for some kind of decent technical signal to attempt the next trade. We will not try an force things for now. Europe finished down and Asia was generally lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Sideways trading action to begin the short week as the Dow rose 10 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to move higher. There were slight gains in most of the major averages today. The S&P 500 did manage to close at a new all time high. It remains short term overbought and at the top of the Bollinger bands. I still think that the S&P will move higher from here but it won't be anything resembling robust. I could be wrong. Expiration week with not a lot of market data to digest. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold futures gained back the fifty bucks that they lost on Friday. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU added 2 points and GDX was up 1/2. Volume was average. Considering the rise in the price of gold, the gold shares didn't move much. I'm not considering the GDX February puts anymore as that opportunity looks like it was just a one day affair. It appears that I won't be making any trades in the February option cycle unless something out of the ordinary occurs. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today despite a lack of price movement in stocks. It remains short term oversold. The VIX remains below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Not sure what's coming next here for the VIX. No clear tecnnical signals for a trade right now so we'll have to remain patient. Not the easiest thing to do sometimes but that is where we are. Asia finished mixed with Europe higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A day of hanging around before a long weekend as the Dow fell 165 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to head higher but stuck in a sideways crawl. The NASDAQ posted a gain on the session while the S&P 500 finished basically flat. The S&P is still short term overbought and is now up against the upper Bollinger band on the daily chart. I still think that we'll be moving higher from here so I did not purchase any SPY February puts heading into the weekend. That idea was simply insurance against any kind of surprise over the 3 day weekend. I could make a technical case for it as well but decided not to. Not to mention that there are only 4 days left in the February option cycle. My track record on the short term trades is not very good. Gold got clobbered today as the futures fell fifty bucks. There was also a dramatic one day reversal in silver. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates again. With both gold and the dollar down it appears that we are seeing an unwinding of the safe haven trade. Although usually a lower dollar is supportive of the price for gold. The XAU lost 6 1/4, while GDX fell 1 3/8. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned lower. I missed this trade as my orders for the GDX puts weren't filled and I canceled them. I'm not sure if this is the beginning of a sustained move lower for the gold shares or just a break in the ongoing up trend. I'll try and figure things out over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below the support at 15. Short term oversold but the VIX seems to be implying that it is heading lower. This would fit with my belief that stocks are moving higher from here with new all time highs in the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ forthcoming. We'll see. An extra day to go over the charts this weekend but it looks like there will be no trades for me in the February option cycle. Asia and Europe ended the week on a mixed note. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The big move foretold by the McClellan oscillator showed up today as the Dow gained 342 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is once again trying to move higher. The NASDAQ led the way today and that's a plus for the bulls. The inflation data came in about where expected today. The S&P 500 rose 1% and got through the near term resistance short term down trend line. It closed just shy of a new all time high. The short term indicators on the S&P have turned back up. Once we get past the old high there won't be any more overhead resistance. So it appears that we'll be heading higher from here. Volume has also picked up since the beginning of the year which shows there has been plenty of interest in owning equities. Gold was up $28 to close at a new all time high on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 3/4 and GDX gained 3/8. Volume was light. I am still looking at the GDX February puts as the next trade but time is running out on this idea with only 5 days left in this months option cycle. The US dollar chart looks like it is about to break down which would also be a plus for gold. However GDX has been short term overbought for over a month now and this cannot go on forever. It is more than overdue for more than a one or two day pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. The near term support on the daily chart is in the 15 area and we are there now. A break below there would mean higher stock prices and that looks like where we are going. Another idea that I was considering was getting some SPY February puts in front of the long holiday weekend in the US in case we get some surprises over the 3 days that the US market will be closed. It has some techncial merit as we are short term overbought. I'll consider it tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe higher with the exception of the FTSE in last nights trade. We'll see how things close out for the week tomorrow.

The inflation data came in hot and the market had a gap down at the open. However as has been the case lately it spent the rest of the session trying to climb out of the hole. The Dow fell 225 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back in a sideways mode. The NASDAQ actually had a slight gain on the day. The S&P 500 had a slight loss. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move with the next two sessions. Perhaps today qualified with the big gap down early but we'll see what happens tomorrow. The short term indicators for the S&P are heading sideways with no clear direction. The Bollinger bands here are starting to contract as well. Something should happen one way or the other before option expiration and I'm still leaning towards the call side. Gold was off $8 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates jumped up. The XAU was up 3 1/8, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was average. There seems to be no stopping the gold shares. GDX continues to short term oversold with no break. Overextended and staying that way. Yes, I still want to try the GDX February puts at some point but when that point is may not arrive. Money continues to pour into gold and the gold shares despite the overbought conditions. This has turned into a freight train that you don't want to step in front of. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower which doesn't fit with a down market. It did finish well off of the best levels on the day though. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower which would mean higher stock prices. Still short term oversold for the VIX. To me it appears that the S&P 500 along with the VIX are setting up for something big here soon. Which way is always the question. Europe was up and Asia generally higher overnight. More inflation data out tomorrow. We'll see how that goes.