We had a one day upside reversal today as stocks opened lower and closed higher. The Dow gained 276 points on heavy volume to close at a new all time high. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The Dow led the way up today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted small gains. The short term indicators for the S&P are beginning to move sideways. Still considering the SPY June puts and perhaps will purchase them next week. Gold rose $6 on the futures. The US dollar had a small gain and interest rates finished generally flat. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves either way on light volume. GDX continues to hold on its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators for GDX remain oversold and trending sideways. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that is in line with a positive stock market. The short term indicators here are moving down and are not yet oversold. I'm remaining patient here as we have a Friday before a holiday weekend on tap tomorrow. The market is still at the mercy of the next Iran conflict headline as we saw in a mid-day rally today. Not sure that traders will want to hang on to stocks ahead of the weekend but we'll see. Waiting on a good technical set up for the next trade. Might see something of that nature next week. Asia and Europe were generally lower overnight. We'll see how the week closes out tomorrow.

Buyers returned today as the Dow gained 645 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way back up and that's a plus for the bulls. The market is back to waiting for the next Iran conflict headline. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. Perhaps we'll get our preferred scenario of a higher high with lower indicator readings. Too early to tell on that. Also waiting on the after the bell NVDA earnings. Gold was up $38 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up over 11 3/4, while GDX added 2 1/2. Volume was about average. The short term indicators for GDX are turning back up but remain in oversold territory. GDX held at its 200 day moving average today. We are still not taking on any gold share trades here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term indicators here have turned down with room to go. Two trading days left this week before a long holiday weekend. It appears that we will let this week go by and take it from there. That is the plan for now. Europe was higher overnight and Asia lower with the exception of India. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The market cannot seem to gain any upside traction here as the Dow fell 322 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. We will take our cues from that. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down and as long as that's the case things will be trending lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are now moving down and are no longer overbought. There is plenty of room for them to move lower. We still like the idea for the SPY June puts here but are waiting for some kind of bounce back in order to purchase. If this is some sort of sustained decline we should see some kind of rally attempt before heading lower again. But markets go where they want and perhaps stocks will just continue to be sold. Gold dropped $69. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The XAU fell almost 13 points and GDX slid 3 1/3. Volume was average. Some of the short term indicators on GDX are now oversold. The longer term up trend line from January 2025 has been broken. The next area of support for GDX comes in at the recent lows around the 80 level. No GDX option trades in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only slightly higher today. The short term indicators here are around mid-range and pointing up. It seems to me that the VIX could go either way from here. However the feel of things right now is that the market has rolled over and we are in the beginning of a sustained decline. As long as the summation index is moving down we will stick with that thesis. Asia and Europe were mixed overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Overall selling continued today but not for the Dow which rose 160 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving down. The NASDAQ led the way lower and the S&P posted a slight loss. The short term indicators for the S&P remain overbought but not completely. We do feel that the stock market is overdue for a rest. Our best case scenario would be for the S&P to make a new high with lower short term indicator values to form a negative divergence. That would be the time to try the SPY June puts. Markets rarely cooperate though. Gold rose $3 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU dropped 3 1/4, while GDX shed around 1/4. Volume was light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX have begun to stall. GDX is hugging the long term up trend line that began around a year and a half ago. If you think that line will hold this is the spot to try the GDX calls. However I am not in that camp but of course I could be wrong. I am looking at the SPY June puts as the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't really fit with an overall down market. Its short term indicators are trying to move lower. Can't say that I know where the VIX is going at the moment. Option premiums are high as we roll into the June option cycle. I'll try and stay patient for now. Not a lot of economic data out this week and we are getting near the end of earnings season. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher to begin the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Some selling for a change on expiration Friday as the Dow lost 537 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. There was a huge gap lower at the open. From there we moved sideways before closing near the lows of the session. A broad sell off as most of the major averages were down over 1%. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Not sure if this is the beginning of a downturn or something option expiration related. One day doesn't make a trend. The steep up trend line for the S&P 500 has been violated but that angle of ascent could not last forever. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned down but they remain overbought. Still considering the SPY June puts. Gold got clobbered as the futures were off $135. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell over 27 and GDX lost 6 3/4. Volume was heavy to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled over with room to go. The weekly candlestick chart here had a bullish engulfing pattern after last week but now shows a dark cloud cover after this week. GDX is now on the verge of breaking the longer term up trend line that began in January 2025. Unless there is a dramatic turnaround for the gold shares next week it looks like that line will fail. The market will let us know sooner rather than later. I am no longer looking at the GDX June calls as the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but off of the highest point of the session. The short term indicators here have turned back up with room to go. If the VIX gets back above 20 we will expect more volatility and lower prices considering that the summation index is already moving lower. Not sure if that is going to happen but we'll know in the coming days. Plenty of work to do over the weekend as we try and figure out where things are going next. The June options have an extra week in them which makes the premiums pricey. Asia and Europe sold off to end the week as well. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing higher as the beat goes on. The Dow gained 370 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower. Retail sales came in where expected. No big news positive or negative from the US/China summit. The NASDAQ is still leading things higher and as long as that's the case the bulls will have the upper hand. New all time closing highs for the NASDAQ and S&P 500 again. The technical picture remains the same for the S&P 500. Overbought and staying that way for much longer than normal. I'm still considering the SPY June puts for now. Gold was off $44 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates finished flat again. The XAU dropped almost 10 points and GDX lost 2 1/3. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to roll over. We will try and wait for GDX to get short term oversold in order to attempt the June calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. Its short term technical indicators are trying to turn back down from about the mid-range level. It looks like the VIX wants to go lower which would bode well for stocks going forward. But the market can't stay overbought forever can it? Option expiration Friday on tap so we will see if volatility picks up. Asia was mostly lower and Europe higher last night. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

All aboard as the market train keeps chugging along. The Dow continues to lag though as it fell 67 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to move lower. The NASDAQ led the overall market higher once again and that is a plus. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at records again. There is no overhead resistance. The thesis of stocks moving higher into the Friday option expiration appears to have been correct. The inflation data came in much worse than expected. After a brief decline in the first half hour buyers took over and stock markets moved up. Markets that ignore bad news are going to go higher. We don't know why but markets always know more than we do. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought as it has been for over a month. This isn't business as usual as the angle of ascent remains very steep. Breadth hasn't been good lately and the rise will end at some point but we are not going to try to guess when that occurs. All ideas for the SPY May puts are off. We will look out to June and the option premiums there have an extra week on them. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU lost 1 2/3, while GDX shed 7/8. Volume was light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are now overbought. I am still considering the GDX June calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today. The short term indicators here are continuing to rise despite the rally in stocks today. Not sure what's going on here with the VIX. I haven't had a good handle on this indicator lately. We'll get retail sales tomorrow and probably some news out of the US/China meetings. It looks like I won't be making any trades during the May option cycle. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. I'll keep an eye tonights headlines.