Some selling for a change on expiration Friday as the Dow lost 537 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. There was a huge gap lower at the open. From there we moved sideways before closing near the lows of the session. A broad sell off as most of the major averages were down over 1%. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Not sure if this is the beginning of a downturn or something option expiration related. One day doesn't make a trend. The steep up trend line for the S&P 500 has been violated but that angle of ascent could not last forever. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned down but they remain overbought. Still considering the SPY June puts. Gold got clobbered as the futures were off $135. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell over 27 and GDX lost 6 3/4. Volume was heavy to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled over with room to go. The weekly candlestick chart here had a bullish engulfing pattern after last week but now shows a dark cloud cover after this week. GDX is now on the verge of breaking the longer term up trend line that began in January 2025. Unless there is a dramatic turnaround for the gold shares next week it looks like that line will fail. The market will let us know sooner rather than later. I am no longer looking at the GDX June calls as the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but off of the highest point of the session. The short term indicators here have turned back up with room to go. If the VIX gets back above 20 we will expect more volatility and lower prices considering that the summation index is already moving lower. Not sure if that is going to happen but we'll know in the coming days. Plenty of work to do over the weekend as we try and figure out where things are going next. The June options have an extra week in them which makes the premiums pricey. Asia and Europe sold off to end the week as well. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing higher as the beat goes on. The Dow gained 370 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower. Retail sales came in where expected. No big news positive or negative from the US/China summit. The NASDAQ is still leading things higher and as long as that's the case the bulls will have the upper hand. New all time closing highs for the NASDAQ and S&P 500 again. The technical picture remains the same for the S&P 500. Overbought and staying that way for much longer than normal. I'm still considering the SPY June puts for now. Gold was off $44 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates finished flat again. The XAU dropped almost 10 points and GDX lost 2 1/3. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to roll over. We will try and wait for GDX to get short term oversold in order to attempt the June calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. Its short term technical indicators are trying to turn back down from about the mid-range level. It looks like the VIX wants to go lower which would bode well for stocks going forward. But the market can't stay overbought forever can it? Option expiration Friday on tap so we will see if volatility picks up. Asia was mostly lower and Europe higher last night. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

All aboard as the market train keeps chugging along. The Dow continues to lag though as it fell 67 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to move lower. The NASDAQ led the overall market higher once again and that is a plus. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at records again. There is no overhead resistance. The thesis of stocks moving higher into the Friday option expiration appears to have been correct. The inflation data came in much worse than expected. After a brief decline in the first half hour buyers took over and stock markets moved up. Markets that ignore bad news are going to go higher. We don't know why but markets always know more than we do. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought as it has been for over a month. This isn't business as usual as the angle of ascent remains very steep. Breadth hasn't been good lately and the rise will end at some point but we are not going to try to guess when that occurs. All ideas for the SPY May puts are off. We will look out to June and the option premiums there have an extra week on them. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU lost 1 2/3, while GDX shed 7/8. Volume was light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are now overbought. I am still considering the GDX June calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today. The short term indicators here are continuing to rise despite the rally in stocks today. Not sure what's going on here with the VIX. I haven't had a good handle on this indicator lately. We'll get retail sales tomorrow and probably some news out of the US/China meetings. It looks like I won't be making any trades during the May option cycle. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. I'll keep an eye tonights headlines.

Quite an interesting session today where stocks sold off hard early and then tried but failed to come all the way back. The Dow managed a gain of 56 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving sideways. The inflation data came in about where expected but sellers took control early on. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted losses for the day with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought. At one point the S&P clearly broke the steep up trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of April. However by the close you can make the case for that line still being in control just not as steep. I am still considering the SPY May puts with only three days to go in the May option cycle but the market will have to cooperate for me to try this idea again. We'll see. Gold was off $7 on the futures but came up from the lows for the day. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU had a slight fractional gain and GDX a fractional loss on average volume. The gold shares came back from decent losses early in the day. GDX is getting to short term overbought but not there completely yet. I am looking at the GDX June calls now. There is a positive bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart for GDX here. Money seems to be coming back into this space. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with an overall down market. Its short term indicators are trying to turn back down. The indicators are closer to mid-range than overbought or oversold. I'm still not sure where the VIX is heading next. More inflation data tomorrow followed by retail sales due Thursday. The US/China summit will be getting underway as well. Plenty of excuses for market movement. If we see some upside tomorrow we might try the SPY puts or perhaps on Thursday morning. Running out of time and plenty of risk in that scenario. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Japan. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Hanging around on a Monday as the Dow rose 95 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. Basically waiting around for the inflation data tomorrow. New all time highs for the NASDAQ and S&P 500 but not by much. The short term indicators remain stuck in overbought territory for the S&P. I did place an open order for the SPY May puts overnight but it wasn't filled and I canceled it during the session. Might try again tomorrow if the market moves higher early on. It also might be too late. Plenty of noise in the background this week with economic data, the ongoing Iran conflict and a US/China summit beginning on Wednesday. The technical picture for the S&P is still overbought and that cannot last forever. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates rose. The XAU gained 15 3/4 and GDX added 3. Volume was a bit above average. The gold shares did much better than the metal itself and that's bullish. GDX also broke above its short term down trend line. The short term technical indicators here are still moving up and are not yet completely overbought. Money is moving into this space. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which does not fit with an up market. The short term indicators here are now moving higher. I still do not have a good handle on what the VIX is doing here. With only four days left in the May option cycle any trade taken on now has more risk than usual. Not sure if I will attempt anything this week. Asia and Europe began the week on a mixed note. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Once again the overall market powered higher and the Dow lagged behind. The most watched index rose 12 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still in a sideways channel. The jobs report came in better than expected. The NASDAQ was the clear leader once again. It closed at a new all time high along with the S&P 500. The S&P simply remains short term overbought with no overhead resistance. The bulls are clearly in charge. This could persist into option expiration next Friday which would make our idea of getting some SPY May puts wrong. We'll go over all the details this weekend and decide what action if any to take. Gold was up $22 on the futures. The US dollar was lower as were interest rates. The XAU was up 11 1/2, while GDX added 2 3/4. Volume was a bit below average. The short term indicators for GDX are back to moving higher with room to go. The short term down trend line remains in place here but another positive session will break through it. It looks like I've missed the GDX call trade here so it is probably a better idea to look elsewhere with only a week left in the May option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was slightly higher today which does not fit with an upside market. The short term indicators here are moving sideways in oversold territory. I am still not sure where this indicator is heading next. A lot of work to do over the weekend to try and come up with a game plan for next week. Plenty of economic numbers due out including a couple of inflation reports. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It looked like some profit taking ahead of tomorrows jobs report as the Dow fell 313 points on pretty heavy volume once again. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving sideways. The Dow led things lower and that isn't the most bearish scenario. Stocks did finish well off of the morning highs though. The NASDAQ posted a slight loss and the S&P 500 had a small one. Some of the short term indicators on the S&P have turned back lower but it remains in overbought territory. The short term up trend line for the S&P, which is pretty steep, remains intact. We are now looking at the SPY May puts. Gold was up $30 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher as were interest rates. The XAU was off around 2 1/4, while GDX shed about 1/3. Volume was above average. The gold shares finished well off of the highs for the session and closed near the lows. They also underperformed the precious metal itself. GDX was stopped at its short term down trend line and pulled back. Some of the short term indicators here are beginning to move sideways. It is possible that my idea here for the GDX calls is not going to work and that the bounce off of the longer term trend line is over. I'll reconsider things tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which does not fit with a down market. The short term technical indicators here have turned lower and remain in oversold territory. I do not have a good idea of where the VIX is heading next. The employment report should be the main focus tomorrow morning and we'll see how the market reacts to that. News on the Iran conflict continues to go back and forth. Looking for an entry point to try the SPY May puts. Europe closed down and Asia was higher with the exception of India. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.