Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Drifting higher as the Dow gained 79 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is slowly moving up. The NASDAQ barely led things higher. It's a holiday week and players are away from their desks. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high. The short term indicators there are moving up or already overbought. Just a half day of trading tomorrow. We are on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was up over fifty bucks on the futures to close above the $4500 level. The US dollar was lower and rates finished mixed. The XAU was up over 1 3/4 and GDX finished flat. Volume was light. GDX remains short term overbought. The gold shares did not follow gold higher today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower and closed below 14. It continues to be short term oversold. We should have continued light trading for what's left of this week as many will be taking Friday off. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll continue to keep an eye on things going forward.
Monday, December 22, 2025
Holiday mode in the market for now as the Dow rose 227 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to move higher. The S&P led things higher today. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator on Friday for a big move within the next two sessions. Not sure if today qualifies so we'll see how things go tomorrow. It really looks like the S&P is just going to push on to new all time highs again this week but you never know for sure in this game. The short term indicators are moving higher and some have room to go. The weekly S&P 500 chart is overbought. The lagging NASDAQ is a concern. But we are in a seasonal positive period for stocks. Gold jumped $90 to a new all time high on the futures as it closes in on $4500. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were up a bit. The XAU climbed 10 3/4, while GDX was up 3 points. Volume was a bit above average. GDX is short term overbought and staying that way. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is almost at 14. The low reading for the VIX suggests that the market rally will continue. The short term indicators here are oversold or almost there. We are patiently waiting for the next decent techncial signal for the next option trade. Asia was higher and Europe lower to begin the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
Friday, December 19, 2025
Closing out the week on a positive note as the Dow rose 183 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way here and that is a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 posted another good gain. The short term indicators on the S&P have turned up. I'm inclined to believe that we've put in some type of at least a short term bottom here. Stocks are moving into a positive seasonal period with the Christmas holiday week coming up. At this point we are looking at the beginning of next year to trade the options again. But we'll see how things shape up. Gold was up six bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU soared 9 3/8, while GDX was up by 2 1/8. Volume was slightly above average. The short term indicators for GDX are getting back to overbought but not completely there yet. The gold shares followed the overall stock market today. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and its short term indicators are turning down. Some have already reached oversold territory. I'm still not sure what's next for this indicator. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend but am prepared to stay on the sidelines next week as we roll into the January option cycle. Asia and Europe finished higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, December 18, 2025
We got a much needed bounce today as the Dow gained 65 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. Inflation data came in lighter than expected. The NASDAQ led things higher and that is a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a decent gain as well and closed back above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are trying to move back up. I am staying on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU and GDX both ended the day little changed. The short term indicators for GDX are moving sideways. Not sure what to expect for the gold shares next. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators here are mid-range. Looks like it could go either way from here. Option expiration Friday on tap so things could get volatile. It is also the last day before a holiday week. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
To the downside today as the selling continues and the Dow fell 228 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. Once again the NASDAQ led the way down and that hasn't been a good sign. My idea of trying the SPY December calls has been wrong. Thankfully we never purchased any since we did not get a solid technical signal. One could occur here soon but it is too late for the December option cycle. The S&P 500 was lower and now has closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are heading down with some in oversold territory. Not exactly sure what is going on but the market always knows more than we do. Inflation data due out tomorrow. Gold was up $41 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished basically unchanged. The XAU was up 2 7/8, while GDX added a buck. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to move sideways. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits a down market. The short term indicators on the VIX are still moving up. The VIX seems to be implying that there is more selling to come. We'll see. Asia was generally higher and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the economic numbers tomorrow.
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
A mixed bag today with the Dow lower and the NASDAQ higher. The most watched index fell 302 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. We spent much of the day in negative territory but a final two hour bounce brought things back. The economic data had no real surprises either way. The S&P 500 posted a small loss. My idea of the SPY December calls is still out there but the time is running out. The S&P bounced off of its 50 day moving average today so perhaps today was the day to purchase them. However some of the short term indicators for the S&P are heading down and are not yet oversold. I'm thinking that if we see weakness tomorrow I might try that idea but the prudent thing to do here is probably to sit things out and wait for a decent technical signal. Yes, I would like to put on a trade before the year ends but sometimes taking no position is the better idea. I'll consider things overnight. Gold finished flat on the session. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dipped as well. The XAU had a fractional loss, while GDX was unchanged. Volume was light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX continue to point down. No trades here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished basically unchanged. Some of the short term indicators here have turned up with plenty of room to go. Not sure where the VIX is heading next as it appears that it could go either way. Next up is the inflation data on Thursday to deal with. We also have expiration Friday and this is the final full week of trading before the market goes into holiday mode again. So if we are going to put on a trade, this is the week to do it. Asia and Europe finished lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Monday, December 15, 2025
We had a one day downside reversal for most stock indices today as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow lost 41 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still trending higher. Once again the NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus for the bulls. It did close just below its 50 day moving average. That said I did consider purchasing some SPY December calls but decided to stay on the sidelines for now. The S&P 500 was a bit lower and the short term indicators here have turned down. Still short term overbought here. Plenty of economic data out tomorrow including the jobs report. So we should get some decent market movement on Tuesday. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was barely lower along with interest rates. The XAU dipped 1 1/3 and GDX shed 3/4. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are trending lower. No GDX trades in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up today which fits with a down market. The short term indicators here remain oversold but they have turned up. I'm still not sure what's next for the VIX. Only four days to go in the December option cycle and it doesn't look like I'll be putting on a trade. We'll see. Europe up and Asia down to begin the week overseas. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
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