A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 285 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The NASDAQ posted a slight gain and the S&P 500 finished around unchanged. The short term indicators for the S&P are beginning to stall. We've got the Fed next week and the backdrop of waiting for the next headline out of Washington. My guess would be that we are on our way to a new all time high in the S&P 500 but that isn't etched in stone. SPY option premiums remain high. Gold was up $66 on the futures to close at a new all time high on its way to $5000. The US dollar took a big hit and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU was up 8 1/3 and GDX added 1 7/8. Volume was slightly below average. GDX remains short term overbought as it has been for a couple of weeks. My open order for the GDX February puts remains out there as I moved the strike price on the ticket. We'll see what happens over the weekend and go from there. The lower US dollar is a boost for gold so perhaps this idea for the puts is not best one at this time. I'll reconsider over the next couple of days. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today. Some of its short term indicators are beginning to track sideways. Not exactly sure what's next for this indicator. After a rough start to the short week stocks turned around and finished higher. I'm not sure if it is the beginning of a new leg higher for the S&P or a snapback to the broken short term up trend line. We'll probably know the answer next week. I'll be going over the charts this weekend to try and come up with a game plan moving forward. Asia was higher on Friday with the exception of India and Europe finished mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving higher as the Dow gained 306 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus. The S&P 500 posted a decent gain and some of the indicators there continue to move higher. Not overbought or oversold there. It still feels like the market remains at the mercy of the next headline. Gold was up $83 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU gained 15 1/2, while GDX added over 3 3/4. Volume is still above average to the upside. GDX remains short term overbought and staying there. I did place an overnight order for the GDX February puts but it did not get filled. I'm leaving it out there overnight but might change my mind. Perhaps move to a different strike price or cancel the order altogether. Gold looks like it wants to travel to the $5000 level and it is almost there. Gold and silver are extremly overbought on all timeframes along with parabolic moves higher on the weekly and monthly charts. It is a fools game to try and pick the top for these two which is why I might just cancel my order for the GDX puts. We'll see. I also may just wait to try this idea at some point next week ahead of the Fed announcement. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with its short term indicators heading down with room to go. Tuesdays decline in stocks seems to be in the rear view mirror. Not sure how this week will close out. It's earnings season but that seems to be in the background for now. ASia and Europe were higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on this evenings headlines.

Back to the upside today as we enter a whipsawed world for now. The Dow gained 588 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading back up. Now we won't have new tariffs as we are at the mercy of the next headline or sound bite. It makes the trading environment even tougher than it already is. We are not thinking that this is the end of the world as the market is in a seasonal good period for stocks. The fact that the TRAN has recently reached a new all time closing high to finally follow the Dow is longer term plus. On a shorter term basis some of the indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. Options premiums remain high. Still waiting on a decent signal for the next trade. However at the moment you've got to take profits when you get them because of the increase in volatility. Gold was up $58 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates dipped just a bit. The XAU was down five points, while GDX dropped 1 1/2. Volume was good. Gold up and the gold shares down isn't bullish. GDX remains short term overbought. I would think that a short term trade with the GDX February puts might work here. However with the current unabated strength in gold right now it may not be worth the risk. We'll look at it tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and that fits the upside in stocks. The short term indicators here moved lower and some already have made it down to mid-range. It makes it appear that yesterdays decline was simply a one day wonder. Time will tell on that. Europe and Asia finished mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Tariff tantrums return as the Dow fell 870 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is begining to stall. The NASDAQ led the way down and that's negative. We had a big gap down at the open for stocks and continued lower from there. The short term up trend line for the S&P 500 has been broken. The short term indicators there are moving down with room to go although some are already oversold. Support could come in at 6700 or 6600 but we don't know at this point. It might be a lot lower. The market is at the mercy now of the next headline and that is a risky game to play. Option premiums have also gone up with the increase in volatility. Not exactly sure what our next trade will be. Gold took off to the upside as haven demand increased. The yellow metal was up $166 on the futures. The US dollar sank while interest rates continue to rise. The XAU jumped over twenty points and GDX climbed 5 1/2. Volume was good to the upside. GDX is overbought, extremely so and showing no signs of slowing down. Money simply continues to find a home here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX took off to the upside and closed above the 20 level. The short term indicators there are now overbought but not completely. It appears that stocks could be in for wild ride this week. We are looking at both the puts and the calls for the SPY. But the better approach might be staying on the sidelines and waiting for a legitimate technical signal. We'll see. Asia and Europe were lower as players head for the exits. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A day of hanging around on expiration Friday as the Dow fell 83 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. Minor losses were posted by the major averages. The short term indicators for the S&P are still heading sideways. Rolling into the February option cycle which has an extra week in it. A holiday weekend here in the US as well. We are waiting for the next signal to put on the next trade. Gold dropped $35 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates continue to rise. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves higher on about average volume. The indicators for GDX simply remain overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX ended the day flat. The short term indicators here are still mid-range. So the VIX remains in a position of implying that things could go either way. I'll be going over the charts during the long weekend as usual. Sometimes you have to remain patient in the game while awaiting the next perceived opportunity. That is the position that we are in now. It isn't always easy to wait but it is better than trying to force things. Markets go where they want. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of India. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Some upside today but the market did fall from its best levels on the session. The Dow gained 292 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The Dow was the leader again today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. It appears that my idea of the Dow reaching 50000 and the S&P hitting 7000 before option expiration isn't going to happen. The NASDAQ and S&P only had slight gains today. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to move sideways. We'll get through the expiration tomorrow ahead of a long weekend with Monday being a holiday in the US. Moving into the February option cycle and we'll see what we can do with that. Waiting on the next decent technical signal. Gold dipped $26 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 3/8, while GDX rose about 1/4. Volume was light. GDX is overbought, staying that way and might be for a while. I suppose we could wait and see if it makes it back to the up trend line that began six months ago but that may not happen. All declines here are being bought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today and some of the short term indicators have now moved lower. Most of the short term indicators here are mid-range or near that level. So where the VIX heads next is up in the air. I'm going to let expiration Friday go by and we'll take it from there. Asia was mostly lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Lower overall today but the Dow only dropped 42 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The inflation data was a bit higher than expected. The NASDAQ led the way down today off 1%. The S&P 500 posted a modest loss but did come back from the lows on the session. The short term indicators there have now rolled over from overbought territory. The short term up trend line for the S&P is still intact although we did reach down to touch it today. The market did not cooperate with the set up we preferred for the purchase of the SPY January puts so we will have to put that idea to rest. With only a couple of days left until option expiration the risk is too high and the time for that idea has probably passed. That doesn't mean that we can't go lower in the following sessions but we probalby should not going to risk any money on it. Gold was up $37 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates dipped. The XAU added 1 1/8 and GDX was up around 1/3 on average volume. GDX simply continues to remain short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but came off of its best levels. Most of the short term indicators are still moving up which still implies more selling in the near term. The problem here is that we are running out of time for the January options. The prudent course of action would be to roll into the February option cycle which has an extra week in it. Asia was generally higher and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.