Higher across the board today as the Dow rose 160 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is beginning to turn sideways. The NASDAQ led the way up today and that is a plus. There was a gap higher at the open and then the market traded sideways for the rest of the day. We once again got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two trading sessions. This signal has not worked lately but we'll see if it can tomorrow. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up in oversold territory. Perhaps the inflation data tomorrow can spur some kind of activity. NVDA earnings will be released after the close. Gold was up $24 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up almost ten points and GDX added two. Volume was a bit above average. Gold and the gold shares continue to attract capital. The current rally is relentless. There are no pullbacks to try the GDX September calls. The short term indicators for GDX remain extremely overbought. We certainly will not chase it at this point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. However some of the short term indicators on the VIX continued to move up. I'm not sure what that means, if anything. Curious movement though. Remaining on the sidelines for now. Europe and Asia finished mostly higher. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow was higher and the overall market lower. The Dow rose 140 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still trending lower. The overall market was down, with the NASDAQ losing 200 points. The S&P 500 had a slight loss. The short term indicators there are mostly oversold. Stocks are having a problem gaining any traction to the upside lately. Inflation data due out on Wednesday should be benign. I'm still interested in the SPY September puts but will wait for some kind of move higher in the near term before trying them. Gold was up another $28 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher an interest rates a bit lower. The XAU was up 4 1/8, while GDX added around 3/4. Volume was average. Gold and the gold shares have had quite a run in past few weeks. The short term indicators for GDX remain extremely overbought. This condition cannot go on forever. However we are not about to fight it. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up today which fits an overall down day for stocks. The short term indicators here are back to pointing up. Not sure where the VIX heads next. Now into the September option cycle and premiums are high. It's the last full week of trading in August and many players are getting in their final summer vacations. We are in no hurry to put on a position right away. We'll see if our patience pays off. Europe and Asia were generally lower to start the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Buyers returned on expiration Friday as the Dow climbed 517 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower. The Dow led the way higher and that isn't the most bullish scenario. Still waiting on the NASDAQ to confirm the most recent highs in the Dow and S&P 500. The short term indicators for the S&P are still moving lower. Not sure how long that short term buy signal for the S&P we just got will last. Prefer to try the SPY puts once we get back to an overbought technical condition. Gold keeps rolling along as the futures gained $106. The US dollar finished little changed again and interest rates were a bit higher. The XAU rose 13 1/8 and GDX added 3. Volume continues to be good here. GDX is extremely short term overbought but in rallies like this one it doesn't matter. Money is coming into the gold shares and declines are viewed as buying opportunities. We will wait for some kind of pullback before attempting to buy the GDX calls. If one doesn't occur we will continue to look for an entry point for the SPY puts. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today and the short term indicators here have now turned lower. I'm not sure where the VIX is heading next. Just over a week left in August as summer is winding down. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Rolling into the September option cycle but there's no hurry to do anything at the moment. We'll get some inflation data in the middle of next week. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the downside today as stocks cannot seem to gain any traction. The Dow fell 703 on lighter volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to trending lower. The Dow led things down but both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had decent losses. The short term indicators on the S&P are now heading lower and are at the mid-range level. There is strong near term support at the break out level of 7600. The longer term up trend line comes in at 7550. If for some reason those levels don't hold then we will be in for more downside. Getting close to a short term buy signal on one of our indicators for the S&P. Gold is the place to be as the futures added another $38. The US dollar finished about flat and interest rates rose. The XAU gained almost ten points, while GDX was up 2 1/2. Volume is still good to the upside here. GDX remains overbought on all the short term indicators. The medium term indicators still have room to go. Looking to try the GDX September calls if we see any pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and the daily chart looks like it wants to go higher. The short term indicators here are moving higher and are no longer oversold. It looks like volatility is going to make a comeback. I also still like the idea for the SPY September puts. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Minor gains were posted today as the Dow rose 119 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower. We had a small gap up at the open, rallied for a couple of hours but then sold off for the rest of the session. None of the major averages could keep the lions share of their intra-day gains. For some reason stocks cannot find any traction here during expiration week. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to turn sideways. Gold jumped as the US treasury secretary indicated that they would be buying more bonds to keep rates down. The precious metal futures were up $146 to over $4500. The US dollar got clobbered and longer term interest rates dropped. The XAU climbed over 32 points and GDX was up around 8 1/2. Volume was heavy to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up in overbought territory. The pullback to the broken down trend line that we were looking for never happened. The gold shares simply took off to the upside and never looked back. GDX is up over 30% in 2 1/2 weeks. The gold shares have far outperformed gold itself. Not sure how much longer that can go on but I'm still a fan of the GDX September calls if we see some selling in the gold shares. However the ideal timing for this trade was missed by us once again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an upside market. The short term indicators remain in oversold territory. I'm not sure where this indicator heads next. Still remaining on the sidelines for now with regards to the SPY and GDX options. Asia and Europe were mostly lower overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

The selling continues today as the Dow dropped 116 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending lower. We had a big gap down at the open and then traded sideways for the rest of the day. The overall market fared much worse than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way down. We are still waiting for the NASDAQ to confirm the new highs made by the Dow and S&P 500. If that doesn't occur we will be heading lower. The short term indicators on the S&P have turned lower but remain overbought. I am considering the September SPY puts but the premiums are pretty high. The mood of the market seems to be changing here. Gold was down $74 on the futures. The US dollar was slghtly higher and interest rates slightly lower. The XAU fell 10 7/8 and GDX dropped 2 7/8. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are still overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which is what to expect with a down market. The short term indicators here are moving higher but most remain in the oversold range. The VIX is still well below the 20 level. Three days left in the August option cycle and we'll remain on the sidelines for now. Considering the SPY September puts and the GDX September calls at the moment. Asia was mixed and Europe generally down overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Starting expiration week on a down note as the Dow fell 272 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to tracking sideways. Most stock markets opened higher and closed lower. We got another signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions. This signal hasn't worked lately but we'll have to see what happens tomorrow. The Dow and S&P 500 led things lower today. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned down but remain overbought. No SPY option trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up $39 on the futures. The US dollar finished a bit lower and interest rates just a bit higher. The XAU added 7 points and GDX was up 1 7/8. Volume was light. GDX remains short term overbought. I am looking at the September GDX calls but am still waiting for some kind of pullback before purchase. Markets rarely cooperate. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that coincides with a down market. Still short term oversold on the measures here. I'm not sure where the VIX is headed next. Not a lot of economic data due out this week as we continue to travel through summer. Haven't heard much about the US/Iran conflict lately but that could change on a moments notice. Waiting for the next decent technical signal but at this rate it could be a while. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye out for any overnight developments.