Heading down today as the Dow fell 336 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The market was hanging around with minor losses before dropping in the final half hour. The Dow was the leader heading lower, while the NASDAQ was barely lower. The big move in the Dow confirms the signal from the McClellan oscillator but it certainly wasn't a broad decline. The S&P 500 remains mired in a sideways trend with the indicators still stuck in mid-range territory. We are hoping to see continued weakness into Thursday so we can try the SPY May calls for a very short term trade. We'll see. Gold fell almost $30 on the futures and closed below the $2000 level. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 3 1/2, while GDX shed 7/8. Volume was average. GDX is short term oversold and almost at its 50 day moving average. Do we attempt the GDX June calls here or wait for lower prices? There is an up trend line on the weekly chart that comes in at 30 and the indicators on this chart have plenty of room to work their way lower. So perhaps some patience is necessary here for now. Waiting for a positive divergence would not be a bad idea either. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits a down market. The short term indicators here have now turned up. I still don't have a good idea of what to expect from the VIX. The Dow continues to drop and is now short term oversold. The NASDAQ continues to hold up and is short term overbought. The S&P 500 indicators are neither overbought or oversold. It is a very confusing and complicated situation at the moment. It will resolve itself eventually. Three days to go in the May option cycle and we'll have to hope that we trend lower here to try the SPY calls before Friday. Risky indeed to attempt it but if it sets up I feel confident that it will work. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

The market continues to simply hang around as the Dow gained 48 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading lower but might be in the process of trying to turn around with todays positive breadth. The NASDAQ continues to outperform. We got a signal from the McClellan oscillator on Friday for a bit move within the next 2 trading days. We'll see if that pans out tomorrow. The S&P 500 continues to move sideways with the short term indicators at mid-range. We are considering the SPY May calls this week if we get a set up. That means if the market is weak going into Thursday, we'll try the SPY calls with one day or so left. That's the theory for now. Might already be too late if the market rallies from here. Gold was flat on the session. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX gained about 1/3. Volume remains light here. GDX is short term oversold on some of its indicators. Might try the GDX June calls but not right now. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX finished flat and the daily candlestick chart still looks like it wants to go lower to me. Getting short term oversold but not completely there yet. Not really getting any clues about what's about to happen here next. Not a lot of economic data due this week but we will get retail sales tomorrow. Ongoing debt limit debate as well. We'll keep an eye on things but we might just be stuck on the sidelines for now. Asia was up and Europe flat to start the week. We'll see how things go on Tuesday.

Some buying at the open but then sellers appeared for much of the session until a recovery in the final hour. The Dow dropped 8 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues down. The NASDAQ led the way lower for a change but all the major stock indicies finished well off of their lows on the day. The S&P 500 remains in a sideways trend with the short term technical indicators stuck at mid-range. I am considering getting the SPY May calls on weakness Monday but today might have been the day to purchase as we have already moved up quite a lot from todays low. We'll consider this idea over the weekend. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional moves up on light volume. Not completely oversold for GDX again but it is in the vicinity of its recent lows. I dumped the GDX May calls that I had for a 75% loss. The entry wasn't as good as it could have been and the exit was horrible. Another mismanaged trade that should have turned a profit. What I need to guard against here is attempting another trade just to try and get even with this one. Thankfully the weekend is here and I'll have time to contemplate the next move. I am looking at the June GDX calls but the strength in the US dollar here might be a concern for gold. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing the best I can despite the losing trade. As I'll always said the mental capital involved with the trades, win or lose, is always the most important concept to consider. The VIX again finished little changed and is not yet completely oversold. It looks like the VIX could go either way although the daily candlestick chart here appears to point to a lower VIX. But I haven't figured out this indicator with any consistency lately. Plenty of charts to look at this weekend as we try and come up with a decent trade for options expiration week. Hopefully I'll be better at the execution than the latest debacle. Trying to move forward from here. Asia was generally lower and Europe up to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We're still getting mixed signals as the Dow fell 221 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving lower. We've had the summation index moving down but the stock market going sideways and that might be a good thing for the bulls. The producer prices came in tame but we had an early sell off. The NASDAQ was up yet again despite overall market weakness. Something has to give here sooner or later. I almost purchased some SPY May calls today because I do think we will resolve this indecision to the upside. Whether or not it's before option expiration is another question. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still mid-range. Gold fell $17 on the futures as silver got crushed today and lost over $1. The US dollar was higher and interest rates fell slightly. The XAU lost 5 1/2, while GDX tanked 1 1/2. Volume was good to the downside. My GDX May calls are now solid losers and all but dead. The only reason that I held on to them is that GDX is so blown out to the downside on some indicators that there should be some kind of bounce tomorrow to exit the trade. This one was poorly managed once again as a winner turned into a loser. Lack of discipline once again reared its ugly head. Greed may have been a slight factor. There was a glaring potential negative RSI divergence on the GDX daily chart that I chose to ignore. It manifested itself today with a huge loss in the index. I'm not sure why silver had such a huge decline but it looks like the industrial metals are coming down. Copper is dropping and could be a precursor to a slowing economy. Silver heading down would fit into that scenario. No matter. We'll take the loss on this GDX call trade tomorrow and try to move on. Mentally I'm frustrated of course as I did not have the right frame of mind to do what had to be done in the GDX call trade. Not a lot of money involved but the mental loss is always harder to deal with. But you've got to find a way to put it behind you and go forward. The VIX was flat on the session and the technical conditon there remains the same. Not sure where it is headed next. Asia and Europe were generally lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was a yoyo market today as we gapped up at the open, sold off hard and then made it all the way back and then some for most of the indices. The Dow posted a loss of 30 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower. Inflation data came in where expected which caused relief at the open. But sellers took over only and pounded things into a loss until halfway through the session when buyers appeared. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted decent gains for the day. The short term indicators for the S&P are still stuck in the middle but they have turned up. I'm not sure what to expect with tomorrows producer prices. Let's just say today looked like we were about to fall off a cliff and the market turned around. We'll take that as a plus. But tomorrow's another day. Gold was off around five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was light here but better than it has been lately. The gold shares did come up off of their worst levels on the day. However the short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over. Somehow the GDX May calls that I still own are still slightly in the black. I've clearly overstayed my welcome in this trade and will have to seriously consider dumping it before the weekend. Still seven days to go yet in the May option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and its short term indicators are leaning down. The low VIX is another reason why we are still thinking that the S&P will reach 4200 sometime soon. It remains solidly below the all important level of 20 which normally indicates higher stock prices to come. Again, things could change tomorrow but if the inflation data comes in benign stocks could rally. Our own work says that the PPI might come in a little hot so we'll see. Europe and Asia had losses last night. On to Thursdays infation data.

Another day of going nowhere as the Dow fell 56 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading down. We had a gap lower at the open and then went sideways for the rest of the session. Waiting on inflation data tomorrow and Thursday. Not sure what that will bring. The NASDAQ was the leader heading lower but the losses were small. The technical condition for the S&P 500 hasn't changed. Mid-range on the short term indicators and waiting to see which way they go. Not getting a good signal either way so we're on the sidelines with respect to the SPY for now. 8 days to go in the May option cycle. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar rose and interest rates ticked up slightly. Once again the XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. It was also the second day in a row that gold had a rise and the gold shares failed to respond. That's a negative. Not sure why I'm still holding on to the GDX May call trade but hope springs eternal. On the hourly chart that we look at here the indicators are back at 50% so things can go either way for the gold shares as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today at it too is waiting on tomorrows data. Will volatility be making a comeback is the question. My guess would be not right now as the VIX has been able to remain below the 20 level for over a month. But we'll let the market decide what's next and take things from there. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Just hanging around would be the best way to describe todays price action as the Dow fell 55 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still tracking lower. Waiting on the inflation data would sum things up. Mixed as well since the NASDAQ posted a small gain. The S&P finished flat. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are around mid-range now. So either way from here is a possibility. I guess I'll still look for the S&P to get to 4200 this week as we've been waiting on that for a few weeks. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates rose. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are slightly overbought and starting to roll over. This does not look good for our GDX May calls. They are still sporting a profit but not nearly as much as last week. Time premium is being sucked out and the light volume is no help. Might have to think about dumping them before they turn into a loss. Still nine days to go though and the reaction to the inflation data will most likely determine the outcome of this trade. Gold finished off of the highs of the session and that's a negative. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. Not sure where the VIX is headed next. Not close to short term overbought or oversold here. Indecision time in the market. A meeting in Washington on the debt limit could influence markets one way or the other. But the inflation data will probably be the main driver for this week. Asia was higher with the exception of Japan while Europe was quiet and mixed. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Buyers took over today as the Dow soared higher by 546 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading lower. Employment was a bit better than expected and the earnings from Apple were viewed as positive. It appears that yesterdays heavy volume combined with the selling was an exaustion point to the downside for now. We were looking for a bounce at the beginning of next week but it came early. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. The weekly candlestick chart there looks constructive although it is overbought. We'll get inflation data out next week and that should be the next mover for markets. Gold got crushed as the futures dropped $30. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were up. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. The fact that the gold shares held up rather well despite the loss in gold itself is encouraging. However the short term indicators for GDX are starting to roll over. The weekly candlestick chart for gold does not look good for the bulls. My GDX May calls are still in the black but we'll need to think hard over the weekend about what to do here. Never anything easy in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped big as todays stellar gains imply. The short term indicators here have rolled over and it looks like higher stock prices in the near future according to the VIX. So we'll have to ask again, are we finally on our way to 4200 on the S&P? The reaction to next weeks inflation data will probably answer that. Plenty of work to do going over the charts this weekend. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Still moving lower as the Dow fell 286 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues down. The Dow has been leading the way lower. The S&P 500 is almost to its 50 day moving average at 4040. We'll have to see what happens if and when it gets there. The fact that the NASDAQ hasn't been leading the way down is a plus in my mind and one of the reasons that I don't think that the decline will be something big. I could be wrong. Getting short term oversold on the S&P but not completely there yet. If the S&P is down tomorrow we'll look for a bounce at the beginning of next week. Not sure if it will be worth trying the SPY May calls there though. Employment data tomorrow should be a mover. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures but came off of the best levels of the day. The US dollar was slightly higher as it finished well off of the lows for the session. Interest rates dropped. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was good to the upside. My GDX May calls are showing a gain but finished well off of the best levels for the day. Still holding this trade for now as GDX is stalling at 36, the area of near term resistance. If it can get through there it will have room to run. Gold itself is close to setting a new all time high. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up and barely closed above 20 and its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are not yet completely overbought. Perhaps we should listen to both the lower summation index and the rising VIX. They imply more selling going forward and more than I am anticipating. So we'll see. The market always knows more than we do. Perhaps there's more bank failures on the way. Just a guess there. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The market took a little while to figure out which way it wanted to go after the Fed but finally decided on lower as the Dow lost 270 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving lower. Got the expected 1/4 point rise in rates which led to an hour of bouncing around before selling off. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned south and perhaps we're heading to the 50 day moving average at around 4040. But I do not think this is the start of an extended decline as the NASDAQ wasn't the leader once again. But who knows? We'll know more as the rest of the week unfolds. Next up is Fridays jobs report. Gold rose almost $20 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates again. The gold shares did not participate in the upside with gold as both the XAU and GDX had just slight fractional gains on average volume. Perhaps that was because of the lower overall stock market. Well we hope that's the case otherwise it's a negative for the gold shares going forward. My GDX May calls are still in the black. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and that fits a down market. The short term indicators here are now mid-range so where thay go next will tell us a lot. My guess is that they'll roll over again and the market will turn back up but I'm not willing to trade on that. There's still plenty of time in the May option cycle for the SPY. Europe was higher and Asia generally lower although some markets remain closed there. Tomorrow should be a waiting game on the employment report. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Sellers took over today in what seemed to be a delayed reaction to yesterdays First Republic bank failure. The Dow lost 367 points on better volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. This turns the summation index back down. There was some weaker economic data out this morning as well. But we'll stick to the technicals as the S&P 500 did reach short term overbought on some of the indicators yesterday. Todays decline does seem to bode well for put buyers going forward but it isn't set in stone just yet. We finished well off of the lows for the session and the NASDAQ wasn't a strong leader going lower. A lot will depend on the markets reaction to the Fed tomorrow. Not sure how that will go. The daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 does now have a bearish look though. Gold took off to the upside on fear as the futures climbed $34. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU gained 4 1/4, while GDX rose 1 1/4. Volume expanded to the upside which is bullish if it continues tomorrow. The short term technical indicators for GDX have turned up. The GDX May calls that I have are now showing a profit. Not sure how long we'll hold on to this one. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up but did fall back after a spike to almost 20 this morning. I don't know if that means that the decline has already reached its limit. We'll know more after tomorrow I suppose. The short term indicators have turned back up here. It was the most volatile session in a while but I'm not sure if it means a return to more of the same. However even after the Fed we've still got the jobs report on Friday to deal with. Interesting times. Asia was up but China remains closed. Europe finished lower. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

It's a waiting game to begin the new month as the Dow fell 46 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. Another bank failure but the market seemed to take it in stride as it wasn't unexpected. A somewhat listless trading session as we await the Fed on Wednesday. Another rate hike is in the cards but the speech afterwards should provide some market movement. Until then we'll just be hanging around. Short term overbought now for the S&P 500 and the daily candlestick chart has what looks like an evening star here. That could be ominous going forward unless we can continue higher. In fact a lot of the daily candlestick charts for the major averages have the same potential evening star on them. So getting some upside from here is essential for the bulls. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. Both the XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Light volume equals no interest. It was another session where the gold shares opened higher and closed lower. Still short term oversold here on some of the indicators but we're not seeing a bounce. My GDX May calls are losers and this trade is not looking like it will pan out. The Bollinger bands are contracting on the daily GDX chart which implies that a big move is coming. The way it looks today is that the move will be lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up bit today and that fits the lower prices. Short term oversold here and there's the potential to work off that conditon and the market to move lower near term. That would fit with the evening star candlestick picture. But we all know that the market moves where it wants when it wants. The VIX can stay oversold for extended periods of time as well. There's no doubt that the market will move off of the Fed though and we're just waiting on that. Which way is the question. Most foreign markets were closed for May day. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Adding to yesterdays stellar gains as the Dow was up 272 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. Not many sellers on the last day of the month as the S&P 500 closed at the highest level since the beginning of February. The short term indicators here still have room to run higher so perhaps we'll finally make it to 4200. We'll have the Fed to deal with next week and the employment report. But right now it looks like we're at the start of a rally. Gold finished flat again on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates fell. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on the continued light volume. My GDX May calls are now showing a small loss. GDX remains short term oversold so there's still a chance that this trade will work. Unless of course it just trends lower from here and stays oversold. That's certainly a possibility. We'll see how it goes next week. Mentally I'm feeling a bit mixed since in retrospect we chose the wrong trade between the gold shares and the S&P. However you have to try and make the best decisions with the information that you have in front of you at the time. Always moving forward is another way to try and stay sane in this difficult game. The VIX was lower again and closed below 15. Getting short term oversold but not completely there yet. The lack of volatility and the low VIX reading is another reason why we think that this rally will have legs despite the overall low volume. Perhaps we'll get some beginning of the month money flows starting on Monday. We'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual. Europe and Asia finished the week with gains. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market exploded to the upside as the Dow soared 524 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. We had a gap up at the open and just kept going. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. Probably some short covering involved as well after the past two down days. GDP was weaker than expected but earnings came in better than thought. Let me be clear in stating that we are not in the business of predicting what the market is going to do on a day to day basis. That is usually just a 50/50 proposition. However there are times when the numbers and technicals line up in such a way that the odds favor one direction over the other by a wide margin. It doesn't happen often but today was one of those days that under normal market conditions where we could see it coming before it happened. Had we been further along in the May option cycle, the option premiums would have been less and we would have given the SPY calls a shot. Although correct in the direction we can never tell the magnitude of what to expect. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now turned back up. Light volume is a concern though. Inflation data out tomorrow and if it is stronger than expected the market will most likely turn back lower. But we'll see. Gold finished flat on the futures. The US dollar ended the day little changed as well. Interest rates rose. The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume remains light here. My GDX May calls are showing a slight profit. Not sure how long we'll hold on to this one. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated for not having the SPY May calls but what can you do? I'm usually not that good when it comes to the short term trades. The VIX dropped and that fits today price action. The indicators here are now rolling over which implies more gains for stocks. Inflation data out tomorrow should get things going one way or the other. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

Lower again today for the most part as the Dow fell 229 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. The NASDAQ managed to post a gain but was off of the best levels for the session. We did get follow through selling for the S&P as it is getting short term oversold. Once again I am very confident that tomorrow will be an up day. Not sure what the reasons will be but technically it fits our work. If tomorrow is lower though, then the market is in much more trouble that I thought. But we don't think that will be the case. The premiums on the SPY May calls were too expensive in our view to try a short term trade there but in retrospect that might have been a mistake. We'll see what happens. Gold was off $5 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was down 1 1/3, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume remains pretty light here. GDX opened higher and closed lower for a one day downside reversal. It is short term oversold but not extremely so just yet. I did adjust my open order for the GDX May calls a couple of times and it eventually got filled. So we are in the next trade. Not sure how long we'll hold on to this idea and I don't know if the gold shares will follow the overall market higher tomorrow. Todays price action was pretty negative. However on the GDX hourly chart we have a potential positive RSI divergence that would play itself out tomorrow if GDX follows up with a gain. If NEM has a decent earnings report that would also help the bullish cause for the gold shares. Or gold and the gold shares could just continue lower as the market always simply goes where it wants. The light volume here is a concern. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today but did bounce around back and forth. The short term indicators here are still pointing up which would imply more decline on the horizon. Still below the 50 day moving average and the 20 level. GDP on tap tomorrow and that could be a market mover. Earnings will be coming out as well. The TRAN got slammed again today and perhaps that might be the story that we should be looking at going forward. With the summation index now heading down, the path of least resistance should be lower. But we still think that Thursday will be positive. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Hong Kong. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Volatility returned and we finally got some movement as the Dow fell 344 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index has turned down. The sell off was broad based with the TRAN taking the biggest percentage hit. I still don't think this is the start of something big to the downside but what do I know? The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trending down but not completely oversold yet. We are about to have the 50 day moving average cross below the 200 day moving average on the Russell 2000. That is not a positive. We haven't broken the up trend line in the NASDAQ that began at the start of the year. So the bulls have that. I'm not sure about tomorrow as we'll see if there is any downside follow through. But I am pretty sure that Thursday will be positive. Whether it's GDP, earnings or whatever that should be an up day according to the work we do here. The question is whether we buy the SPY May calls on weakness tomorrow. The premiums there are pricey though. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped on a flight to safety. The XAU had a fractional loss and GDX had a slight fractional gain. Volume remains light. My order for the GDX may calls remains out there but at this rate it won't get filled before Thursday. I might just buy the calls there above the price that I want and take my chances. However the light volume in the gold shares is telling me that there is no real demand there at the moment. I'll have to decide one way or the other tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX perked up today but did finish off of the highs for the day. The short term indicators have turned up with some room to go. The VIX remains below the 20 level which is another reason why I don't think a huge decline is in the cards here. If the VIX gets back above 20 then that would change our view. As is the usual story with this game, always plenty of questions with no easy answers. Asia and Europe were generally down. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The week started right where we left off with a listless, going nowhere for now market. The Dow was up 66 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving sideways. A mixed bag as the NASDAQ was negative. The S&P 500 remains stuck in a range. The short term indicators here are trying to turn back up so perhaps we'll see some buying tomorrow. But who knows? Still waiting on a catalyst or something to get things going. Earnings haven't provided much direction as yet, perhaps the GDP report on Thursday will get things moving. Inflation data out on Friday. We just rolled in to the May option cycle so the premiums are still high. Gold rose $8 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates a bit higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on pretty light volume. I did place another open order for the GDX May calls and I'm leaving it out there for now. Not completely short term oversold for GDX but we're getting there. I might adjust the order and take this trade ahead of the NEM earnings report on Thursday. We'll see. There's been a lack of volume lately for the gold shares and that is not a positive. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was basically unchanged today but was higher during the session. Still short term oversold on the daily indicators but that has been the case for weeks. Not getting a good idea of what comes next here with regards to the VIX. Plenty of earnings due in the next few days. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower to begin the last week in April. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Just another day of watching paint dry as the Dow gained 22 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is stalling here. We saw a little back and forth early but have finished just about where we started. The was no expiration volatility and no positive expiration week bias. Not sure what the market is doing here but it ain't much. It's a trendless game at the moment and that isn't appealing to options trading. It's still a week and a half until the Fed. The S&P 500 has been trading sideways for a while and we're still waiting to get to 4200. The short term technical indicators here have rolled over from overbought. I'm not sure what comes next here but we'll move on to the May option cycle. Gold lost over $25 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost 3/8. Volume was light. GDX is moving towards short term oversold but isn't there quite yet. I am looking at the May calls here now and will probably place an order before the open on Monday. We'll put the order in only to be filled if GDX continues to decline. There's a possibility that gold rolls over here and we do not want the calls if that happens. GDX could be headed back to the 50 day moving average which is below 31. So we will have to look at things this weekend and try to come up with the right game plan here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today as there was no upside follow through to yesterdays slight gain. Still short term oversold and the VIX is still saying that higher stock prices are in our future. It is a low volatility environment at the moment. The low volume is a concern for the bulls. But there is an old adage saying to never short a dull market. We'll stick to the techncials and right now there isn't a clear signal with regards to the SPY. We'll check the charts this weekend and take it from there. Europe was higher and Asia lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A bit of volatility returned as the Dow fell 110 points on light volume. We opened with a gap to the downside and then moved back up until when there was 2 hours left in the trading day. Then we had a huge sell off only to rebound again in the final half hour. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to congest. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are finally starting to roll over. They are still overbought but coming off of higher levels. I do not think that this is the beginning of some kind of extended downside correction. But I've been wrong before. Gold rose $7 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dipped too. The XAU and GDX had minimal slight fractional moves lower on very light volume. I did not try the GDX April calls again with 2 days left in the April option cycle. We are moving out to the May GDX calls for the next possible trade there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with a down market. The short term indicators here are now coming off of the extreme oversold levels. It doesn't mean that a big decline is in the cards because we are well below the level of 20. I'm still looking for the 4200 level on the S&P 500 before we take a different view of where we're going. Asia was generally higher and Europe was down. We'll see about expiration Friday tomorrow.

It was still just another day of hanging around as the market opened lower, made it all the way back and then some only to fall back again in the final half hour. The Dow fell 79 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues up. Most of the major indexes finished little changed. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought as if it were in an endless loop. So far option expiration week has been a big yawn. I'm expecting higher prices as we have yet to reach the target of 4200 on the S&P. Volatility is low and the trading is lackluster. Gold was off a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off 2 7/8, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was a bit above average. I did place another order for the GDX April calls but it wasn't filled. I adjusted it a couple of times during the day because I thought that this idea still might work. However the short term indicators on the daily chart for GDX have rolled over and are not yet oversold. But we have shorter time frames that we look at and some of those are indicating a bounce possible there in the next 2 days. Perhaps if GDX is lower on the open we'll try the calls for a very short term trade. But the risk may not be worth the reward. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is still lower today and remains extremely short term oversold. The RSI is around 34 1/2. We are not going to be able to base a trade on that in the April option timeframe. The premiums for May will be inflated with so much time remaining there. So we may just have to pass on the trade based on the RSI for the VIX. Looks like we'll be remaining on the sidelines for now. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

We had a gap to the upside to start things off. Then the market sold off into negative territory and spent the rest of the session going sideways. It can't seem to make up its mind. The Dow lost ten points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues to the upside. All the major indices finished with slight moves either way. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought. It doesn't look like we'll be making a trade this week there. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. Both the XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. I did place an overnight order for the GDX April calls but it wasn't filled. Might try again tomorrow but we are really running out of time for this idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today and the short term oversold condition persists. It doesn not look like the RSI here will make it down to our target of 30 in order to attempt the SPY April puts. So it looks like we'll remain on the sidelines until the next option cycle unless we try the GDX calls with three days to go. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Some back and forth today but the final 2 hours saw an advance as the Dow gained 100 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The S&P 500 continues its short term overbought condition. We're still looking for a trade in the SPY this week but have come up empty so far. Some economic data due out this week but nothing that is expected to be a big market mover. Earnings will continue to be the focus in our view. My guess would be that the positive option expiration bias takes effect and we'll see higher prices going forward to Friday. But with the overbought condition a drop could appear out of nowhere. It looks like we'll be on the sidelines with respect to the SPY. Gold was off eight bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher again along with interest rates. The XAU lost 3 1/4 and GDX shed 3/4. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX have turned down and they have plenty of room to go lower. That said, we still might try the GDX April calls with only 4 days left to go in the April option cycle. Those that missed the recent run up in the gold shares might be looking to jump in on this slight decline. Or this could be the beginning of a move back to the 50 day moving average which GDX is still pretty far from reaching. I'll have to look at the shorter term technicals tonight and see if a trade is the right thing to do here. The risk would be very high either way. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below 17. It remains very short term oversold. The RSI on the daily chart is at 36 1/2 and I don't know if it will make it down to 30 this week. Plenty to consider overnight as we try and decide if a trade is worth the risk this week or should we simply wait for better opportunities. Asia up and Europe down to start the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A one day reversal to the downside as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 143 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. The economic data was mixed with retail sales coming in lighter than expected. Bank earnings were in line or better than anticipated but after a breif early rally in stocks, sellers took over. The market did however finish well off of the lows for the day though. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. It's hard to make a case for trying anything with the SPY considerign there's only a week to go and no clear signal. If we do try anything it will have to be very short term in nature. However the short term trades are not really my strength so perhaps caution will be advised. Gold dropped $35 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell over 2 3/4, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was good to the downside but the gold shares came back well off of their lows for the session. Still short term overbought here as well. Yes I'd still like to try the gold share calls but we are running out of time in the April option cycle. We'll consider what to do over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that doesn't fit with a down market. Not sure what the story is here. Still short term oversold which has been the persistent condition. Firmly below the 18 level now on the VIX with the RSI at 37. Maybe we'll get to 30 on the RSI next week but will there be enough time to try the SPY April put trade? The VIX still projects higher stock prices going forward. It was a positive week for stocks as all the major averages posted gains. The only caveat here is that the volume wasn't robust. We'll see if that means anything going forward. There are always many questions without easy answers in this game. We'll go over the charts in the next couple of days and try to come up with a game plan for a trade next week. Europe and Asia posted gains to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Off we go to the upside as the Dow gained 383 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Producer prices came in tame and it was a rally from the start. The NASDAQ led the way. It appears that prices now will probably run up into option expiration next week. Perhaps 4200 will be in the cards for the S&P 500. It does remain short term overbought but that may not deter things from going higher. The S&P has been overbought for about 3 weeks. Only six days left in the April option cycle and a trade in SPY looks less likely at this point. Gold rallied $30 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were up a bit. The XAU climbed 4 points, while GDX added about a point. Volume was good to the upside as there are no sellers for now. The gold shares remain extremely overbought and now are pretty far from their 50 day moving average. I canceled my open order for the GDX April calls as it was nowhere near to getting filled. It has been quite a move in gold and the gold shares and I missed it. I'm not sure how much longer it can go on but we'll be buyers on any pullback if it can get short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and closed below the 18 level. It dropped lower out of the recent congestion and that implies higher prices yet to come. Remaining short term oversold here. One possible trade before expiration next week would be the SPY April puts if the RSI on the daily VIX hits 30. It is currently 39 and change. Not sure that it will reach that level but we'll keep an eye on it. Retail sales data out tomorrow and some earnings start to trickle in. So the market will have excuses to move. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was another back and forth session as the Dow dropped 38 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving up. We waited for the inflation data to show up and there were no surprises. Producer prices out tomorrow. The NASDAQ was the leader heading lower. The short term indicators there have now rolled over. Despite todays drop the S&P 500 remains short term overbought. It has been traveling sideways for a week and a half. We would like to try a SPY trade in the April option cycle but have yet to receive a decent signal one way or the other. I'll try not to press things here just for the sake of making a trade. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX added 1/3. Volume was light. I did place an open order overnight for the GDX April calls. It wasn't filled and it will take some decline in GDX for that to happen. I'm leaving the order out there for now. GDX continues to be short term overbought and has been for over 4 weeks. This won't last forever. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished about where it started today. It's still below the 20 level and in a sideways channel. Also still short term oversold. I don't know what to expect here next. Stocks seem to still be waiting for some kind of catalyst to get them going up or down. I'm not sure what that would be or where it will come from. We'll stick with trying some kind of gold share call trade for now as money continues to find a home there. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of the Hang Seng. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Mixed is the best way to descibe todays price action although things were looking pretty positive until the final half hour. The Dow gained 98 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. We were looking at gains all around the stock indices but sellers took over in the final half hour. The NASDAQ posted a loss and the S&P finished little changed.. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I still think that we'll get to 4200 on the S&P before we see the end of this rally but I could be wrong. Tomorrows inflation data should prvide the catalyst one way or the other. Not sure exactly what to expect there. We're still looking for some kind of SPY trade before option expiration next week. Gold was back up $15 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates held steady. The XAU gained 1 2/3, while GDX added 5/8. Volume was light for what we've seen here lately. I may put in an order overnight for the GDX April calls in case we get a sell off early in the morning. GDX remains short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a touch today, remains short term oversold and I don't know what to expect here next. Still below the 20 level and that's a plus for the bulls. Where we go next will depend on the reaction to tomorrows data. Europe and Asia finished higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments and see what the inflation data has in store for us tomorrow.

An early sell off was met with buying for the rest of the session as the Dow gained 101 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving to the upside. We did get a signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two days. We'll see if that pans out tomorrow. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 finished about where thay started. Both remain short term overbought. Waiting on the inflation data due out on Wednesday and Thursday. Earnings season will begin on Friday with some of the major banks. So there will be plenty of reasons for stocks to move around this week. We still like the market to progress higher and look for 4200 on the S&P. Gold dropped $20 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU fell 1 1/3, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. GDX remains short term overbought. We're still considering the GDX April calls but are hesitiant to put on that trade due to the sustained overbought condition. If GDX makes it back to the 33 level we may give the calls a shot. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher which doesn't fit with an up or sideways market day which we saw today. Still pretty oversold on a daily bais here. However the daily candlestcik chart here still looks like it implies lower readings for the VIX going forward. Never any easy going in this game. Less than 2 weeks now left in the April option cycle. We will be looking to put on some type of trade either in SPY or GDX. Most of the foreign markets were still on holiday last night. What were open finished mixed. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Just hanging around before a long weekend as the Dow rose a couple of points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still moving up. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 were higher today as well. They also both remain short term overbought. Waiting on tomorrows jobs report and there isn't much else to say but that. We will just have to wait and see how it goes on Monday morning. Gold was off a dozen on the futures today. The US dollar finished little changed as did interest rates. It is a waiting game here as well. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on pretty light volume. The overbought extremes continue for the gold shares. We still are hoping for some type of pullback during the April option cycle here but if not we'll move on. All the players should be back at their desks on Monday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is getting to support at the 18 level. If it can get through there the rally will have even more legs. Still remaining very short term oversold on the VIX but that can last for a while in uptrends. My guess remains that the S&P will make it up to 4200. Our open order for the natural gas ETF BOIL was filled today. This is an idea that we plan on holding for less than a year. If and when we see a move higher and the indicators get overbought, we'll be out. However this isn't a fast moving instrument and the possibility of holding on for months isn't out of the question. It could be a buy in the spring, sell in the winter kind of deal. We'll be keeping an eye on it and be ready to take the loss if it simply continues to drop. It is our first endeavor with a leveraged ETF so we'll see. Europe was up and Asia mixed overnight. A long weekend is upon us. We'll go over the charts, enjoy the extra day off and get ready for next week.

Another mixed bag as the Dow was up while the overall market struggled. The most watched index gained 80 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. The NASDAQ led the way down for most of the indices. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought despite a couple of down days. It feels as though stocks are just hanging around and waiting for the next catalyst. Or perhaps it's just a holiday week feel as the markets will be closed on Friday. Whatever the case we will remain patient for now and look to put on a trade next week after we get the jobs report out of the way. Plenty of time in the April option cycle to make something happen. Gold was flat on the session. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume. Waiting on some kind of pullback here as both gold and the gold shares are extremely overbought. It will be risky to try the calls but that is the plan for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished barely higher today and remains short term oversold. The daily chart still looks like it wants to go lower. We are in a waiting game at the moment. One trading day left this week tomorrow and I'm pretty sure that we will just let it pass. We won't try and force things here but try and let the markets tell us where we go next. Having patience isn't the easiest thing in the world sometimes but it is necessary in the game. So we'll simply stay on the sidelines until next week. Europe and Asia finished mixed. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Some selling today and that wasn't unexpected as the Dow fell 198 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. We were due for some give back and saw some today. We don't think it's the beginning of any kind of sustained downside activity. The S&P 500 does remain short term overbought along with the Dow and the NASDAQ. But as we've said before, in rallies the markets simply stay overbought. We still expect higher prices going forward. Gold took off today and gained almost forty bucks on the futures. The US dollar continued its slide and interest rates were lower. The XAU jumped 4 1/3, while GDX was up over a point. Volume was heavy to the upside. I did place another order for the GDX April calls but then canceled it. There is no doubt that the gold shares are heading higher but I have to at least wait until they pull back before trying to trade them now. Obviously the best opportunities here have passed us by. But with GDX going straight through the 33 level without hesitation tells us there is more room to run. We will look to try the calls on a pullback to 33. The short term indicators here are extremely overbought. GDX is also moving pretty far away from its 50 day moving average. So trying the calls here may not be the best move in the world but the momentum is strong. We'll try and figure things out as we move forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but finished well off the highs of the session. It remains short term oversold but the daily candlestick chart appears to look like it wants to go lower. Still below the 20 level here. We saw selling in the market today and the question is whether it will be the start of some actual downside or just a sideways pause to take a breather. I'm inclined to believe the latter. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed overnight. Halfway through the trading week and we'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A mixed bag to start the week but the Dow gained 327 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ posted a loss along with the TRAN. The S&P 500 was up and the technical condition there remains the same. Short term overbought. Plenty of data out this week with Fridays jobs report the most anticipated. However Friday is also a holiday so we will have to wait out the long weekend to see the market response. For now the trend is up until further notice. We still believe any decline can be bought successfully. Gold was up $15 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX gained 3/4. Volume was good. The gold shares continue to plow higher despite being overbought for weeks. We still would like to try the GDX April calls but haven't taken the chance. It is hard to get long a trade when it is already overbought but in rallies that condition just keeps on going. It will end at some point and sometimes I get the feeling that point will be the moment you put on the call trade. However money continues to find a home in gold and I don't see anything to change that narrative right now. GDX is at some resistance now at the 33 level so perhaps we'll get a pause to try the April calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and that fits with most of the market being up. Very short term oversold now so I would expect to see some type of decline in stocks this week. Not anything that would change the overall bullish scenario though. We'll see. Asia and Europe were higher to start the week with the exception of the DAX. We are considering a trade in natural gas as it has been hammered down to levels that we think are worth taking a risk on the long side. We are looking at a leveraged instrument, BOIL, which is an ETF not an option. We do have an order in for it if the price gets down to where we'd like to purchase. I haven't traded this product before but it does appear to have enough liquidity to give it a try. Unlike the option trades, there are not deadlines for selling it once purchased. However for us this is a trading vehicle and not something to be held on to for more than a year. We'll be keeping an eye on it and let you know if our order gets filled. As always we'll keep watch on tonights trading activity.

Yesterday saw the inflation data come in weaker than expected which led to a broad rally. The Dow was up over 400 points and the NASDAQ continues to lead the way. The summation index is moving higher and we'll take our cues from there. Declines can be used to get long in our opinion. Gold fell back a little bit. We have a shortened trading week on tap with the Good Friday holiday. I'm feeling better and should be back to normal on Monday. Enjoy the weekend.

Feeling ill today will hopefully get to the blog over the weekend.

The beat goes on as the Dow rose 141 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ continues to outperform. We're going higher and now declines can be used to get long. The S&P 500 is short term overbought but that shouldn't stop things from going higher. Inflation data out tomorrow and it should be a market mover. Also the end of the month and quarter so there might be some gyrations during the session. We are still looking at the S&P to get up to 4200 during this run. Gold was up over $30 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were little changed again. The XAU was up 2 points while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light. Remaining short term overbought for the gold shares as well. Waiting for a pullback here to perhaps get my open order for the GDX April calls filled. Volume is getting lighter now for the gold shares so perhaps this move higher is about to stall. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit lower today. Pretty oversold on the short term indicators. The daily candlestick chart here appears to want to go lower. Below the 20 level on the VIX and that's a plus for the bulls. We'll get the inflation data in the morning and go from there. Not sure what to expect. But the tone of the market has changed from panic to buying and the summation index is moving up. We won't try and fight that. Europe and Asia were up with the exception of Japan. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Moving on up as the Dow gained 323 points on light volume. We had a gap at the open and continued higher from there. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. It got down to the zero line and has turned around. Expect higher stock prices until further notice. The NASDAQ remains the outperformer and that's a plus. The S&P 500 is getting short term overbought but in rallies it will stay that way. I think we're on our way back up to 4200 but we'll see. We will look to find some SPY April calls to purchase if we get some weakness. Waiting on Fridays inflation data. Gold dropped almost ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates were little changed. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. GDX remains short term overbought. My open order for the April calls is still out there. A rally in stocks could dampen the demand for haven assets. We'll keep an eye on things as usual. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped again today and is now solidly below the 20 level. This should also provide more evidence for a rally in equities. The VIX is now short term oversold but can stay that way during upswings. Unless we get some kind of negative headline out of the blue, we'll be looking for the rally to continue. The technical evidence leads us this way. Now it could all change with a negative surprise from the inflation numbers on Friday but I don't think so. Europe and Asia were higher last night. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Hanging around is how I'd describe things as the Dow lost 37 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up again. Whether or not it's successful will determine the markets direction. I'm still a believer that we are going to head higher. The NASDAQ led the way down today but the losses were small. Volatility is muted at the moment. Not sure if the market is on spring break or if traders are just waiting for March to end. The technical picture for the S&P is more short term overbought but not excessively so. We're just waiting for a catalyst one way or the other. Perhaps Fridays inflation report will do the trick. Gold bounced back twenty bucks today on the futures. The US dollar continues lower and interest rates were up a bit. The XAU gained 3 points, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was average. Seems like that there is no stopping the gold shares. I do have another open order out there for the April GDX calls but it will take some decline in GDX to get filled. Still short term overbought on GDX and staying that way. Perhaps we'll get a move back towards the break out from the down trend line at 31. Or not. Money continues to flow into gold and the gold shares and I don't see any reason to think that it will stop anytime soon. But it will eventually. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and it remains short term oversold. It did close below 20. It looks like it wants to go lower which would support higher stock prices. However right now we will have to remain patient and wait for some kind of trading set-up one way or the other. Option premiums remain elevated with plenty of time left for the April option cycle. Asia and Europe were positive last night. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Continuing to move higher as the Dow gained 194 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is again trying to turn around. The Dow was the leader today as the NASDAQ posted a loss. Not the most bullish scenario but we'll take it. Some economic data out this week but the market will be waiting for the inflation numbers due out on Friday. To me it's a market that is waiting to break out one way or the other and still can't make up it's mind. If the summation index can get going to the upside, we'll see higher prices. Hasn't happened yet. Not SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold was off $25 on the futures as the negative RSI divergence there was valid. Not sure how long it will last. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were up. The XAU and GDX finished little changed after being lower to start the day. Volume was pretty light from what we've seen lately. The gold shares did not follow gold lower and that is a plus for the bulls. We still like the GDX April calls if we can find a spot to purchase them. GDX does remain short term overbought though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. the short term indicators here are getting oversold but not completely there yet. The daily candlestick chart sure looks like it wants to go lower but the VIX remains above the 20 level. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to start the week. We'll watch the overnight developments and take it from there.

A one day reversal to the upside to close out the week as the Dow gained 132 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues down. It has now passed through the zero line but we aren't seeing a market collapse. That is telling me that things should turn around here and head higher. When the technical conditions are present for something to happen and it doesn't, that tells you something too. The fact that we are just hanging around here and not dropping says higher prices are in the future. Markets that drop simply go down, they don't meander around as we have despite the volatility. Most of the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 remain stuck at mid-range. Still waiting for them to turn one way or the other. The NASDAQ did lag today. We'll think about the SPY April calls over the weekend. Gold dropped $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GDX added 1/4. Volume remains good here. Gold lower and the gold shares higher is a positive sign. The gold shares remain short term overbought. I'm still considering the GDX April calls if we get some type of pullback. However if the overall market does start to rally, the flight to safety trade will wane. GDX did close above the down trend line that had been in place for the past year. There is a potential negative RSI divergence on the daily gold chart which we will keep an eye on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it implies a lower VIX which would in turn lead to higher stock prices. But I'm not going to say that is going to happen next here. I haven't been able to figure out the VIX for quite a while. So I'll keep an eye on it but look for clues elsewhere as to where we are going. As I've already said, I think stock prices are moving higher from here. We'll go over all the charts this weekend as usual. Europe and Asia were both lower on Friday to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was one of those crazy sessions today as the Dow was up almost 500 points early only to give it all back and go negative with about an hour to go. Buyers then stepped in as it gained 75 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index has made it down through the zero line but we really haven't fallen apart yet. I'm still guessing that things will hold up here. The NASDAQ is still outperforming the major averages and that's a plus. If it happens to roll over here, then we'll see some carnage. Again, I don't think that will be the case. There is just too much bearish sentiment at the moment. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are stuck at mid-range. Whichever way they go will determine the markets near term direction. One thing that's obvious is the pick up in volatility which is generally a negative sign for the market. I don't have any SPY trades that I'm considering right now. Gold rallied again as the futures were up almost fifty bucks. The US dollar was up a bit and interest rates continued to drop. The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was good. GDX has just broken through the short term down trend line at 31. It now appears that the drop earlier this week in gold was a snapback to the breakout from the long term resistance because it has taken off ever since. The bearish candlestick pattern on the daily charts of both gold and the gold shares did not pan out. We will be buyers of the GDX April calls if we get some weakness in the coming days. Money is flocking to gold and you cannot ignore that. It appears new all time highs for the precious metal will be happening soon. I do not like to chase moves but will make an exception this time around. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit higher today after bouncing all around. I can't seem to figure this indicator out lately. Still above the 20 level here. It has been a pretty volatile week for the stock indices so far but the S&P 500 is just about where it started. We'll have to see where we finish tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll see what Friday has in store for us.

We've got the Fed decision out of the way but after briefly rising on the news of a 1/4 point hike the market sank. The Dow fell 530 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower after trying to turn itself around at the zero line. Will things now just fall apart as usual at the zero line? We'll know by the close on Friday but I'm wondering if today was just a one day wonder. There sure is plenty of bearishness around. But the market will let us know in the coming days. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are back to mid-range and rolling over. So you certainly could make a bearish case going forward. The Russell 2000 has been oversold for weeks and just printed a long dark candle on its daily chart. I suppose if the tech sector starts to sell off we could see another leg down for the S&P. Hasn't happened yet. Gold rallied $30 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dropped for the bond market. Looks like the flight to safety trade is still alive with the action in gold and bonds. The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was good. I did place an order overnight for the GDX April calls but it wasn't filled. GDX is short term overbought on some of its indicators and I don't usually like to trade the calls in that situation. Not to mention the bearish candlestick pattern on the daily chart. I do think however that we are in a very precarious market environment in which gold and gold shares could remain overbought for an extended period. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today but not as much as a down 500 market would indicate. Not sure what happens next with the VIX although it looks like a hammer on the daily candlestick chart here. That would imply lower prices and more volatility tomorrow. We'll see. So now with the Fed out of the way, what's next? A couple of economic reports left to see this week but nothing major. I guess we'll see if we get any follow through selling tomorrow. Europe and Asia were higher last night. We'll see if they mirror the US market lower overnight.

More upside as we wait for the Fed as the Dow climbed 316 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around again, this time at the zero line. We expect the market to hold in here. The S&P 500 got through and closed above the short term down trend line that was in place. It did stop just below the 50 day moving average though. Our posture is that the market got sold out with all the bad news recently. Combine that with the extreme oversold readings that we saw on some indicators and it's a recipe for higher prices. Now that could all change tomorrow on the reaction to whatever the Fed does but we think that higher prices are in the markets future. The short term indicators for the S&P are pointing up and have room to move higher. If the summation index turns back up, that is all the evidence that you need. So we'll see where we go from here. Gold got clobbered today as the futures shed $40. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates rose. The XAU lost 4 1/8, while GDX dropped 1 1/8. Volume was good to the downside. Gold and the gold shares now share the same bearish candlestick pattern on their daily charts which implies lower prices to come. Either the recent break out on the long term chart for gold was false or what we are seeing now is the snapback to that breakout. With the daily chart for the gold shares in a bearish configuration, I'm inclined to think we just saw a false breakout despite the good volume. We'll know more by the end of the week but I am still interested in the GDX April calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are trending down. This seems to imply higher stock prices going forward. Still above the 20 level here. The market is acting as though all the banking problems are behind us and it's full steam ahead. We'll only know as time goes on. Now it is just a matter of getting through whatever the Fed has in store for us and the market reaction to that. Should be interesting to say the least. Europe and Asia were up with the exception of Japan. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Trying to stabalize here for Fed week as the Dow gained 382 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving down and has reached the zero line. It's the moment of truth for this indicator. Either the market turns around here or it goes into freefall. My guess is that we'll start to head higher but nobody knows for sure. The NASDAQ was the laggard today. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain as mid-range. The major stock indices are very mixed on a technical basis. Some are short term overbought, some oversold and the rest stuck in the middle. We are also in a headline driven environment which is tough to predict. Also just rolled into the April option cycle with an extra week on the options. So we have our work cut out for us. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures as money continues to pour in here. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was good. Remaining short term overbought on the gold shares. I am trying to wait for some kind of pullback before attempting the GDX April calls. GDX is right at the short term down trend line at 31. We'll probably wait for golds reaction to the Fed on Wednesday before doing anything but who knows? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today as it continues the recent pattern of being up one day and down the next. So the market should be down tomorrow if that holds. Mid-range on the short term technical indicators here. Not sure what's next for the VIX. I suppose it's just a Fed waiting game for now unless another bank fails tomorrow. Asia was lower and Europe higher to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Sellers returned for option expiration as the Dow fell 384 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. Confidence in the US banking system is wavering despite the manuvers of government officials. In my mind it will all be sorted out but that doesn't mean that we won't see any more panic. I still think that the market is trying to form some kind of bottom here but I've been wrong before. I don't see the NASDAQ falling apart as usual during rough declines so I'm inclined to not think the worst here. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain mid-range. There is a short term down trend line in effect there though. We'll get the Fed announcement next week and that should be quite a volatile session. But that's not until Wednesday which seems pretty far from here. Gold exploded to the upside as the futures climbed sixty bucks today. Fear has taken over as the flight to safety trade is front and center. The US dollar dropped along with interest rates. The XAU rallied 5 3/4, while GDX was up 1 3/8. Volume was extremely heavy. There is a down trend line for GDX at the 31 level that's a year old. We are almost there but I'd expect things to stall before getting through there. Hopefully that will give us another chance at the GDX calls for April. Gold itself has now closed above a down trend line that had been in effect for over 2 years. Price and volume as always remain the keys and gold has now proven to be the choice of traders at least for now. The gold shares are short term overbought but may just stay that way. GDX may not get back to oversold for a while. We'll consider what plan to take over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was back up today as it switches back and forth each session. Still mid-range for the short term indicators here. Not sure where things go next for the VIX here. Oversold now for most of the major indices but not the NASDAQ. Could it be that tech stocks are now considered a flight to safety as well? If they roll over here it will get ugly and the zero line on the summation index will be violated. That's the worst case scenario. Will the Fed do something on Wednesday to abate the fear? Well, stay tuned. Interesting times. We'll have plenty to ponder over this particular weekend. I'll be checking the charts as usual. Asia up and Europe down to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the upside today as the Dow climbed 372 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. Volatility is the rule these days with big moves in both directions. My thinking here is that the market is trying to put in some kind of bottom. Once again the NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are already back at mid-range. I did not attempt the SPY March calls today and that turned out to be another mistake. There was plenty of time early in the trading day to purchase them but I did not take the risk. After about an hour after the open the market started to rise and did not look back. Missed money is better than lost money so they say. But it sure doesn't feel that way. We'll be looking into the April option cycle going forward. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates rose. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on good volume. They both came back from the lows on the session. I still like the gold share calls looking out from here but would like to wait for them to get oversold again. We are looking at both the April and May options there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was back down today and once again the daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower. The short term indicators are mid-range and have turned down. My guess again would be that the VIX declines and stocks go up but I thought that a couple of days ago too. The VIX remains above the 20 level. We may be waiting for the next bank implosion before heading lower but todays jump in stocks seems to say otherwise. Or maybe today was just some expiration related price action. We will only know for sure as time goes on. I'm thinking that things will turn higher here and that the summation index will not break down through the zero line. That's my best guess at the moment. Asia was down and Europe up overnight. We'll see how option expiration goes tomorrow.

Just another wild day on Wall street as the Dow fell 280 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index continues to move lower and is approaching the zero line. If the summation index goes through there we'll really see things fall apart. Not sure that will happen though. Inflation data was weaker than expected and retail sales were negative. We did come up from the worst levels on the day and the NASDAQ actually posted a slight gain. The S&P 500 also came back from its lows. The short term indicators here have curled back over to the downside. We do have one indicator that is pointing to buying before the Friday expiration. It is roughly projecting the S&P to close around 3950 by Friday afternoon. Anything is possible in this game. Perhaps I'll give the SPY March calls a chance with only two days left but we'll see. My track record on the short term trades is pretty poor. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures but did fall back from the best levels on the session. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU was off 1/2, while GDX finished flat. Volume remains solid here. The gold shares fell back from early gains. I did sell the GDX March call trade but it wasn't a good job there. I should have dumped them early but did not. The management of this trade was terrible but I was lucky that it didn't end up a huge loss. I would have like to have held on to it for another day but took what I could get. The gain was 70%. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are overbought so perhaps it is due for a rest. Plenty of room to run on the weekly indicators though. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher again as this indicator has had a volatile last five days. The short term technical indicators here have turned back up. Seems like I'm still having a hard time figuring out the VIX. Just a few more economic reports this week but the main ones have already been digested. Oversold for the major averages but in declines they simply stay that way. Yesterdays price action just turned out to be an oversold bounce. Asia higher and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A bounce showed up today as the Dow gained 336 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues lower. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow. Data from inflation came in where expected so their were no surprises. We had gotten pretty oversold on some of the techncial indicators so an up day was due. Where we go from here is the question. A one day wonder or perhaps the beginning of a meaningful bottom? Of course we won't know until some more time passes. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We'll have to see if we get any follow through buying tomorrow. Producer prices along with retail sales will be the early focus. Not exactly sure what to expect. Gold dropped $9 on the futures. Some decline for the precious metal was not out of the question considering that it's come so far so fast. The US dollar ended little changed and interest rates rose. The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX rose 1/4. Volume was average. Somehow I'm still holding on to the GDX March calls with only 3 days to go. Not completely short term overbought here yet and my target for GDX is 30 this week. Very risky to hold on though as a drop in the gold shares would wipe out whatever profit is still left in this trade. We'll see how it goes tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have now rolled over. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it implies lower readings on the VIX and therefore higher stock prices going forward. Still above the 20 level though. One day doesn't make a trend but at least the market stopped going down for a day. Much of the gains came in the final hour and that's usually a bullish development. But tomorrow is another day. Asia was down and Europe up overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Volatility is the name of the game here as various markets are having huge moves as they worry about threats to the US banking system. The Dow fell 90 points on very heavy volume. The Dow rallied hard in the overnight market and then couldn't hold on to the gains. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The McClellan oscillator is below minus 300. We are getting blown out to the downside. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. The NASDAQ did manage to post a gain so maybe there is some hope for the bulls. We'll get the CPI report tomorrow and that will certainly have an impact early on. Not sure what to expect there but if it comes in hot expect more selling. However a weaker print there could send us into an oversold bounce. Or some news could come out of nowhere to move things as we are in a headline driven market at the moment. Gold soared as the futures gained fifty bucks. The US dollar was lower and interest rates had huge drops in a flight to safety frenzy. The XAU jumped 6 1/3, while GDX was up by 1 7/8. Volume was incredibly strong. The potential positive RSI divergence for GDX was validated. Well at least technical analysis still works. My GDX March calls had their own March miracle as they now show an actual profit. Of course it took the second largest bank failure in US history to make that happen. Probably should have just sold them today but I'll wait on the inflation data tomorrow to figure out what to do. The short term technical indicators for GDX have now turned up and they do have room to go higher. Price and volume moving in tandem is a positive event. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and again finished well below its highest levels of the day. Getting short term overbought here but not there just yet. Well above the 20 level as volatility rules the markets for now. Not sure where the markets go from here but some kind of bounce is not out of the question. Markets know things that we don't and the price action in some of the instruments in the past couple of sessions is completely out of the ordinary. We can only wonder why for now. Caution is advised. Asia was mixed and Europe down to begin the week overseas. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

New troubles for the market as it now frets over a couple of California banks going under. The Dow fell 345 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The headline number for the jobs report was higher than expected but the underlying statistics were not as robust as predicted. An early sell off was met with a rally attempt. However that failed as the FDIC came in to take over in the California bank debacle. Obviously the fear is that there are more failures to come. Heavy selling to the downside is not a positive sign unless it is the final flush. Not sure that's what occured today. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. It is now firmly below its 200 day moving average. The next area of support comes in at 3800. Gold rallied on fear today as the futures rose over $35. The US dollar was lower and interest rate yields plummeted. The gold shares initially jumped but then were sold off with the overall market. The XAU managed a gain of a point, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was heavy. The positive RSI divergence is still in place on the charts and would have been fulfilled today if the gold shares had managed to hold onto their gains. I do still have the GDX March call losing trade alive although I should have sold them this morning. Normally they would be worthless by now since they are far out of the money but the increase in volatility has given them life. Probably will hold on until Tuesdays inflation report at this point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped again today and closed above its 200 day moving average. However it did finish well off of the highs for the session. The short term indicators have moved up but are not yet completely overbought. Plenty of fear and uncertainty out there at the moment. Margin calls ongoing to be sure. The weekly indicators for the S&P have plenty of room to move lower, so I'm not sure how far down we have to go. Option expiration week on tap as well. We'll go over the charts as usual this weekend and keep an eye on any new news developments too. Perhaps we'll look for a chance to play an oversold bounce in the S&P next week. Or not. We've still got the losing GDX call trade to book. Europe and Asia sold off into the weekend as the world markets try to figure out exactly what is going on. Basically it appears that a couple of banks made some losing bets and now have to face the music. The game treats all alike. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market got clobbered ahead of tomorrows employment report as the Dow fell 543 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that is not a good sign for the bulls. It is as if the market knows ahead of time that the jobs numbers will not be favorable. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled back into oversold territory. The S&P is trying to hold on to its 200 day moving average. Stock markets have the feel of wanting to keep going lower here. The negative candlestick pattern on the S&P daily chart seems to be playing itself out. The lower summation index is telling the story. But we'll see what happens tomorrow. Gold rallied a bit as the futures rose around $15. That couldn't get the gold shares going as both the XAU and GDX had fractional losses again. Volume was average. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The potential positive RSI divergence for the gold shares is still in place. So is my losing GDX March call trade. Probably dump it tomorrow unless we see some extraordinary upside in GDX. The gold shares followed the market lower today despite the rise in gold itself. I should have been out of this idea long ago. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX jumped today and closed above 20. The short term technical indicators here have turned up with a vengeance. Not sure what it means but volatility has returned for now. There is no good reason to be holding calls right now but here I am. Europe and Asia were mostly lower again last night and I'd expect more of the same to finish the week. We'll get the market reaction to the jobs report and close out the trading week tomorrow.

More Fedspeak but less market reaction as the Dow fell 58 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving lower. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. We didn't see any downside follow through from yesterdays debacle in the overall market and that's a plus. But we still have to at least get through Fridays jobs report. Whether or not we sell off here in a meaningful way will be determined on Friday is my guess. We'll simply wait and see. Gold was off a buck or so on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates held steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. One of the GDX hourly charts that I use along with the daily chart of GDX are both showing a potential positive divergence on the RSI indicator. That is the only reason that I'm still holding on to the losing GDX March call trade. Now GDX could move lower and negate that signal. Or we'll see the gold shares move higher in the near term and perhaps I can cut the loss for this trade to not be a complete wipe out. We'll know by Friday morning one way or the other. The trade is already dead in my mind so a couple of more days won't affect things that much. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. My thinking is tha tomorrow will be a waiting game for stocks with most likely a downside bias. We'll see. Europe and Asia finished mixed. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Hawkish Fed comments sent the Dow reeling today as it lost 575 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving lower. The Dow led the way down. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over or are about to. The daily candlestick chart here shows a bearish pattern which indicates yet lower values to come. We'll get more talk from the Fed chairman tomorrow before Fridays jobs report. It appears that the short term rally that we just saw is over. Gold got crushed today as well as the futures lost $35. The US dollar soared while short term rates went up and the longer term ones held steady. The XAU fell over 5 points and GDX lost almost 1 1/4. Volume was heavy. The short term indicators here have rolled over as well. My GDX March calls lost most of their value as I have held this trade for too long. Another mistake that could have and should have been avoided. The fundamental backdrop for gold is negative and I have no business trying the calls in that atmosphere. Yet I tried them anyway and even had a small profit at one point. We did see an oversold bounce for gold and the gold shares. That was my cue to exit the trade and I didn't. Mistakes are costly in the game and I just made another one. I'll sell and move on but the mental capital is always more important than the monetary capital. Two losing trades to start the new year is not where you want to be. Mentally I'm feeling negative as the GDX trade has blown up in my face. There's nobody to blame except myself. The highs are high and the lows are low in the trading game. The VIX was up today but remains short term oversold. It did manage to to stay below the 20 level. There's plenty of room to move up on the short term indicators. If that occurs we'll see quite a drop in the stock market. Hasn't happened yet and the VIX is still below its 50 day moving average so it's possible that today was just a one day decline. But a lot of the technical evidence is against that scenario. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. My guess is that we'll see selling around the globe tonight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was an up and then back down session as the Dow managed a gain of 40 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving lower. It was a mixed market with the NASDAQ showing a small loss. It seems like we're just waiting on the Fed comments tomorrow and Wednesday. I doubt that they'll be bullish, so I'd expect some type of pause or pullback before we get Fridays employment numbers. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range so we could go either way here. If we do get a pullback my hope is that it doesn't turn into a rout. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU fell 2 1/8, while GDX shed over 1/2. Volume was pretty light. Gold barely moved lower but the gold shares got sold. That is not a positive. My GDX March calls went from showing a profit to showing a loss. Once again this appears to be another mismanaged trade that should have been sold on Friday. Last week gold was moving and the gold shares weren't keeping pace. What more do you need to see really? Sure there's a chance that this trade will work out but it will now have to be held longer than the original thinking. Not sure that will be a good idea either. Less than 2 weeks to go before the March option expiration. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today and is short term oversold. I would not be surprised to see the VIX higher tomorrow and stocks lower. Asia and Europe were genrally higher to start the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Stocks took off to the upside today as the Dow gained 387 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but may be trying to turn around here. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 was up sharply and is now above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here have turned back up and have plenty of room to move higher. It appears that we have started some type of rally here but we'll have to see just how long it lasts and how far it goes. We will know for sure once the summation index turns back up. Hasn't happened yet but it does have a chance after the past two positive sessions. Gold rallied as well with the futures up twenty bucks. The US dollar was lower and so were interest rates. The XAU was up almost 2 points, while GDX added nearly 1/2. Volume was light here though as it looks more like sellers have disappeared vs. buyers showing up in force. We would have liked to see better gains in the gold shares considering the move in gold itself. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up and still have room to go. My GDX March calls are showing a small profit. The recent rise for GDX hasn't exactly been robust so I'm not exactly sure how much I trust in prices for the gold shares moving much higher from here in the near term. I'll have to decide what to do with this trade over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that goes along with a good day for stocks. The short term indicators here are getting oversold but not completely so. It was a good week for the bulls. Next week we've got the Fed chairman speaking for a couple of days plus the employment report. So we'll have to see if this upswing can continue. We'll be going over the charts as usual this weekend to try and figure out what to do next. Europe and Asia were higher as well to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow led the way higher today as it was up 341 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues lower. It was a one day reversal to the upside for stocks as we opened lower and finished higher. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. It did hold its 200 day moving average today. Still feels like a waiting game here. Gold was off $3 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX basically finished flat on the session. The volume was very light. The short term indicators for the gold shares have turned back up. For some reason I'm still holding on to the GDX March calls. They are showing a very small profit. Not sure what I'll do with them from here. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and that fits the turnaround that we saw in stocks today. It closed below its 50 day moving average and the important 20 level. It does imply higher stock prices going forward but we'll have to see about that. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see if the market has any upside follow through as we close out the trading week tomorrow.

Another day of indecision as the Dow was up 5 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving down. The overall market was negative with the NASDAQ leading the way. The major stock indices remain short term oversold. The S&P 500 is trying to hold in at its 200 day moving average. However it has broken the longer term up trend line from October and can't seem to get any upside momentum. Short term oversold and staying that way is not a positive. Not sure where we go from here. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates higher. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added 5/8. Volume was heavy to the upside which is a new development here. The short term indicators for GDX are now sloping upwards. My GDX March calls are somehow showing a small profit. I don't know why I'm still holding on to them but greed comes to mind. The strong volume today is a plus and I may be holding on to this trade for longer than I thought. But we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today which doesn't match with an overall lower market. The short term indicators are still mid-range here. Stocks have been moving sideways with a lower bias for the past week or so. Remaining short term oversold and I certainly don't have a good idea where we go next. I'm encouraged by the move higher in the gold shares today but that doesn't mean things can't simply turn around tomorrow. The game is never easy. Asia was higher and Europe generally lower last night. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.