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Tuesday, May 02, 2023

Sellers took over today in what seemed to be a delayed reaction to yesterdays First Republic bank failure. The Dow lost 367 points on better volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. This turns the summation index back down. There was some weaker economic data out this morning as well. But we'll stick to the technicals as the S&P 500 did reach short term overbought on some of the indicators yesterday. Todays decline does seem to bode well for put buyers going forward but it isn't set in stone just yet. We finished well off of the lows for the session and the NASDAQ wasn't a strong leader going lower. A lot will depend on the markets reaction to the Fed tomorrow. Not sure how that will go. The daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 does now have a bearish look though. Gold took off to the upside on fear as the futures climbed $34. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU gained 4 1/4, while GDX rose 1 1/4. Volume expanded to the upside which is bullish if it continues tomorrow. The short term technical indicators for GDX have turned up. The GDX May calls that I have are now showing a profit. Not sure how long we'll hold on to this one. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up but did fall back after a spike to almost 20 this morning. I don't know if that means that the decline has already reached its limit. We'll know more after tomorrow I suppose. The short term indicators have turned back up here. It was the most volatile session in a while but I'm not sure if it means a return to more of the same. However even after the Fed we've still got the jobs report on Friday to deal with. Interesting times. Asia was up but China remains closed. Europe finished lower. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

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