Overdue for some selling and we got some today as the Dow fell 223 points on end of the month heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving back down.  The NASDAQ was still in the green today and that's a plus for the bulls.  But the S&P was down and it remains short term overbought.  I did place an order for the SPY September puts but it wasn't filled.  I'm leaving it out there.  Might be too late though as this could be the start of a long awaited adjustment lower for stock prices.  Hasn't happened yet but the narrow advance with poor breadth is not a recipe for a huge rally.  Not to mention prices have pretty much been going straight up for almost two weeks.  GE was off 1/4 on heavy volume.  Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was light.  The technical indicators for the gold shares are now mid-range.  I'll look at the calls again if we make it back to short term oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling a but tired.  The VIX shot higher today and it is getting short term overbought.  I'm not sure what to make of it since it has been rising but so have stock prices until today.  I'm still favoring the SPY puts.  We are in a seasonal negative time frame for stocks and things won't go straight up forever.  We could see some beginning of the month money flows tomorrow morning.  Plenty of economic data out this week with the jobs report on Friday the main highlight.  It will also be a holiday weekend coming up.  I've got the open order for the SPY puts out there and I'll see if it has to be adjusted or not.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower to begin the week in overseas trade.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Continuing the climb higher as the Dow gained 161 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving down but is now trying to turn around.  The money flow into stocks here is relentless but the overbought condition cannot be ignored.  The S&P is starting to go straight up and we know that never ends well.  The question is how far up does it go before it gets exhausted?  How much more overbought will things get?  At this point I am considering buying the SPY September puts on any strength Monday but will have to look at things over the weekend.  Monday is the last day of the month along with some big name stock splits.  The market is going up regardless of the news, good or bad.  It is a freight train that you don't want to step in front of.  Regardless, I'm getting a short term sell signal that gets stronger every passing day that goes up.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold rallied and the futures gained around $30.  The US dollar has started to fall again.  That will support the price of gold.  The XAU was up 5 1/3, while GDX added 1 1/3.  Volume was light.  I'm still lamenting missing on the GDX calls here but what can you do?  Move on and perhaps if the market has a decline that I'm looking for I'll be able to attempt this trade next week.  As long as the up trend line that began in March for GLD still holds, long is the way to be for gold and the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a decent drop today on the rally and that makes sense in this indicator for a change.  The short term technical indicators for the VIX are rolling over which would support higher stock prices going forward if they continue to fall.  I'm seeing extreme bullish sentiment in some indicators that isn't going to let up as long as prices continue to move higher.  The normal bearish seasonal factor for the market is nowhere to be seen.  Any attempt at a sell off is met with buyers.  On some indicators the market's been overbought for two months.  I'm saying that at this point some type of pause is overdue and as of right now I believe that it will begin sometime next week.  I'll be going over all the charts this weekend to come up with some type of game plan for the SPY September puts going forward.  Asia was mixed overnight with Japan lower on the resignation announcement of its prime minister.  Europe was lower.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Volatility returned as the market traveled up and down after the Fed speech in virtual Jackson Hole.  The Dow managed a gain of 160 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ in the red.  The Dow was up almost twice as much as where it finished.  Overdue for some selling and the market does remain short term overbought.  I am looking at the SPY September puts but I would like to let the month of August come to a close before purchase.  The stock market will not go up forever.  GE was flat on the session and volume was light.  Gold saw the same volatility as the stock market and finished with a double digit loss after being higher early on.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU fell three points, while GDX shed almost a point.  volume was light.  Perhaps I'll get a chance for the GDX September calls after all.  The 39 level would be the ideal target for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked and then fell back but still finished higher on the session.  It was a wild ride but it did manage to finish back within the Bollinger bands.  I do think that the return of volatility is telling us something and I think that means be prepared for lower prices.  Perhaps not immediately but definitely within the September option cycle.  I'm getting a short term sell signal on one of my indicators which could trigger any day.  In fact the longer the market keeps finishing the day with a gain, the stronger this particular sell signal becomes.  I'm not sure if will lead to just a one day decline or something longer.  But with what we saw today in the VIX, I'd again recommend to be cautious on the long side.  The coronavirus testing companies that I was looking at all fell today as Abbott Labs announced a cheap new quick test.  We'll see if it actually works.  Again, investing in the individual stocks comes with its own set of additional risks.  The gains can be rapid but so can the losses.  Europe and Asia were generally lower.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The market continues to climb as the Dow gained 83 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow once again.  New all time highs for the NASDAQ and the S&P.  With the summation index moving down and the market moving up something has to give.  We're now at a point on the short term indicators that should lead to some weakness for stocks.  However we could get some kind of upside blow off as well.  We may already be into it.  Interesting times to be sure but all we care about is how to trade and make money from it.  I am looking at the SPY September puts but the premiums remain elevated.  We've got chairman Powell speaking tomorrow so we'll wait and see if that affects the markets and go from there.  GE was off 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold was up $25 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU gained 4 1/2, while GDX was up a point.  Volume was light.  It looks like another missed trade here as yesterday was the time to purchase the calls here.  GLD was back to its up trend line and the short term indicators on GDX had carved out a bottom.  The premiums were high for the options but the time to act appeared to be right.  I can hope things fall back from here but hope is not a trading strategy.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated for missing the GDX call trade.  The VIX was higher again today as it bounced off of the lower Bollinger band.  This too doesn't make sense as a rising VIX normally coincides with lower prices.  The short term indicators are still mid-range there and the overall market is in rally mode.  I'm really kind of at a loss of what to do here but I will not chase things higher for the SPY.  There is no overhead resistance for the S&P but it remains a narrow market with just a few stocks leading the way higher.  Unless we start to see better breadth I'm pretty convinced that we'll see this rally fail in the September option time frame.  That's my best guess for now.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll get the first 2nd quarter GDP revision tomorrow but I think the main focus will be on the Fed chairmans virtual speech from Jackson Hole.  We'll see how it goes.     

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 60 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The summation index is still moving down.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 setting new all time highs.  We remain short term overbought on all of the major stock averages.  I'm not sure just how much longer this can go on but it's usually longer than you think.  Not a lot of economic data for the rest of the week but we do have the Fed chairman making a speech on Thursday.  That could get things going either way.  But for now it's simply higher we go.  GE was off a few cents on average volume.  Gold finished the session a bit lower but did manage to come up off of the lows for the day.  The US dollar was slightly down.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  They also finished well above their lows for the day with possible hammer patterns on the daily candlestick charts there.  GLD is at its up trend line that began in March and is at a logical place to hold the recent decline.  If the line is violated then the picture will change.  Today could have been the proper time for the GDX September calls.  We'll know for certain in the coming days.  I did consider purchasing some but the premiums remain elevated due to the amount of time left in them.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower and the indicators are starting to try and roll back down.  If that occurs the rally will continue.  The Bollinger bands continue to contract and it appears that the move it's implying is to the upside.  Perhaps we'll see some kind of blow off top.  That's just a guess on my part.  For now I'll simply sit on the sidelines until a decent signal appears.  That's the course of action or inaction that I'm choosing at this time.  I'll look things over again tonight and go from there.  Asia was up and Europe mixed last night.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.  

We begin the last week of August with a burst to the upside as the Dow gained 378 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower but another day like today could halt that.  The Dow was stronger than the overall market.  The S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ continue to set new all time highs.  We're still short term overbought for the major stock indices but during rallies we tend to stay that way.  I expected this week to be slow and it certainly hasn't started off that way.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume.  Gold fell $11 on the August futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU slipped 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was very light.  I'm still looking at the GDX September calls if we can get short term oversold again.  Could happen this week.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower but did finish above of the lows for the session.  The short term indicators here have reached mid-range so there is no clear signal.  However it does look like they want to roll over and that would lead to even higher equity prices.  Perhaps that is what the tighter Bollinger bands imply but the market as always will go where it wants.  We've just rolled into the September option cycle so the premiums are high.  The best case scenario for me would be to let this week pass and take it from there.  We'll see.  There's still two weeks before Labor day which is the unofficial return of all the players.  There's no overhead resistance for the NASDAQ and the S&P.  I am leery of the rally here but you cannot argue with price.  Staying patient for now.  Asia and Europe were higher as the flow of money into stocks is worldwide.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

A positive end to the week as the Dow gained 190 points on average volume.  The advance declines were around 2 to 1 negative.  Today the Dow was stronger than the overall market.  The summation index is moving lower.  A new all time closing high for the S&P 500 but I can't help but be concerned here.  The breadth on this advance has been negative and that doesn't exactly bode well for the bulls going forward.  Only a few of the tech stocks are moving the averages higher in a narrow market.  We remain short term overbought.  The market is moving up and the summation index is moving down.  That does not compute.  The Russell and the NYA have rolled over.  I really would be cautious doing anything from the long side here.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  The gold futures fell $14 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU dropped 3 1/3, while GDX shed over a point.  Volume was light.  A much needed break in the advance for the gold shares is in progress.  The 50 day moving average comes in at 39 on GDX and that would be the likely spot to try the September calls.  We are also heading back to short term oversold there.  The medium term remains overbought but not as much as it was.  There is however plenty of room for the indicators there to fall.  The volatility for gold has increased but I do think that the demand there remains in place for now.  A rally in the US dollar would change my view but we haven't seen that yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was a bit lower today but the short term indicators there have started to move up.  The tight Bollinger bands remain in place.  With a dropping summation index combined with a negative McClellan oscillator and a rise in the VIX I would have expected to see stock prices falling.  Instead we're seeing the NASDAQ, OEX and the S&P 500 climb to new all time highs.  I don't know what to make of it.  Money is flowing into a small number of stocks that are lifting these averages higher.  This is usually a late in the rally market signal.  I would be and I am definitely wary of this move higher right now.  Otherwise the backdrop remains the same.  No US stimulus package yet and the pandemic virus remains.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend as we roll into the September option cycle.  Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower to finish up the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

It was one day reversal to the upside as the market tried to sell off again but turned around.  The Dow was up 47 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index has begun to move lower.  Any selling that we've seen has been met with buyers every time.  Plus once again the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  As long as the liquidity is flowing, there seems to be a floor for any selling of equities.  At some point that will change but trying to predict when it will happen has been a frustrating affair despite the overbought conditions.  Simply going with the flow for now seems to be the best idea.  It isn't a sharp rally but it is a grinding to higher prices environment.  GE was off a dime on light volume.  Gold bounced up around ten bucks on the futures and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU added 2 1/3, while GDX was up 7/8.  Volume was light.  Trying to remain patient with respect to getting some gold share calls.  Ideally they'll get short term oversold once again but the market s rarely cooperate.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked up at the open with a gap lower in the stock indices.  The Bollinger bands here are now continuing to contract so I do believe that something big is going to happen soon.  I would certainly like to be positioned on the right side of whatever move happens to come out of this.  Will it be a melt up or a melt down?  It's hard to believe that we could keep going higher with all the uncertainties in the worlds economy right now led by the ongoing pandemic virus.  However the market goes where it wants and it continues to move up.  We'll simply have to listen to what it says and not try to argue with it.  Also not try to impose our will or our ideas on it because that will be a losing battle.  Still short term overbought and staying that way with option expiration on tap tomorrow.  My guess right now is that late August will move back to the summer doldrums mode.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Some mild selling today as the Dow fell 85 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is beginning to roll over.  The overall market dropped too and was a bit weaker than the Dow.  Stocks began to fade after the release of the Fed minutes.  Nothing earth shattering there but it was an excuse to sell.  Is the S&P putting in a double top here?  Maybe but with all the money still sloshing around I find it hard to believe we're on the verge of something big.  Then again, I haven't been right about much lately.  We are in a negative seasonal timeframe for the market but it hasn't meant anything yet.  GE lost a few cents and the volume remains light.  Gold got clobbered again and dropped sixty bucks on the August futures.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 4 3/4, while GDX lost over 1 1/2.  Volume was average.  Plenty of volatility for gold at the moment.  I still like the GDX calls here if we get back to short term oversold again.  Another area to watch is the 50 day moving average at around 38.5 if we get there.  One thing to keep in mind is that we probably are not going to simply go straight back up again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX came to life and was up a little over a point.  The short term technical indicators have now turned back up.  This hasn't led to a sustained decline lately and it has yet to be seen if this time is any different.  We'll find out in the days ahead.  With only a couple of days left in this months option cycle, it's obviously too risky to do anything now in my opinion.  We could easily return to the summer doldrums as well.  I suppose we'll see how the rest of the week plays out and take it from there.  My next trade will probably be in the GDX calls, at least that's the thinking for now.  Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trade.  We'll see if we get any follow through selling in the US tomorrow.

Another mixed bag today on Wall street as the Dow lost 68 points on better volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is starting to move sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow again.  The S&P 500 set a new all time high.  It was the fastest bear market on record, which I hadn't anticipated.  I did not believe that it would happen.  However with the NASDAQ leading the way back, I should have taken that into consideration.  Just another miscue on my part but it's where we go from here that matters.  Three days to go in the August option cycle.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty light.  Gold continued higher by over ten bucks.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU was down about 1 1/4, while GDX shed around 1/3.  Volume was light.  The gold shares didn't follow the metal higher and that's generally a warning sign.  However a continuing weaker US dollar will bring buyers into gold.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The VIX was a bit higher today but the short term technical indicators remain oversold.  I'm not getting any good signals from this indicator and the contracting Bollinger bands haven't led to any major moves.  The S&P 500 itself remains short term overbought as well.  I'd expect things here to continue higher into Fridays expiration.  Every intra-day attempt at a sell off has been met with buying.  Evidently there is still plenty of liquidity to go around.  You shouldn't try to fight that.  There's been more rumblings about getting the US stimulus deal done but nothing concrete as of yet.  That should provide the bulls with a least some kind of pop to the upside if and when it occurs.  May provide a boost for gold as well.  The pandemic virus remains but is still being ignored by the market for now.  Asia was generally higher with Europe lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow began the week with a loss of 86 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is now tracking sideways.  the overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  It began with a gap higher at the open and traded sideways for the rest of the session.  The S&P 500 will most likely close at a new all time high at some point this week.  That's my guess.  We are in the summer doldrums.  The volume is light and the volatility is nil.  Will this continue through the rest of August and on to Labor day?  I certainly don't know the answer but it is entirely possible.  GE was off about twenty cents and the volume was light.  Gold soared to begin the week as the August futures gained over forty bucks.  The US dollar was lower and interest rates dropped a bit as well.  There has been volatility both ways in gold.  The XAU was up 8 1/2, while GDX climber 2 1/2.  Volume was average.  GDX did get to short term oversold yet I did not buy the calls.  That is just another mistake on my part.  After gold shed over a hundred dollars in a day, I was gun shy about trading the gold shares right away.  Wrong move on my part.  If they roll back over again maybe I'll give the calls a try but they do remain overbought on a weekly basis and way above the 50 week moving average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues lower and remains oversold.  There has yet to be a big move that's implied by the contracting Bollinger bands.  Only four days remain in the August option cycle.  The most prudent move on my part here is probably to stay on the sidelines since my grasp of market hasn't been all that good lately.  But we'll see.  If and when we see the new all time highs for the S&P, it will be important to watch what the market does after that.  Expiration week usually has a positive bias and we saw that today but the participation is light.  There's been no deal for the next US stimulus package and the market has shrugged it off.  The pandemic virus remains.  Asia was lower and Europe higher to begin the week overseas.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.  

A back and forth session to end the week as the Dow gained 34 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow.  Lately the market action seems to me to be of the summer doldrums variety.  The volume is lacking and with the exception of Tuesday, the volatility has been muted.  It was a losing week for me and there are only five days left in the August option cycle.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was pretty light.  Gold fell around ten bucks on the futures and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume.  I'm keeping my eye on the gold share calls here.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was down a touch and appears to be ready to go even lower.  That would bode well for the market in expiration week if it comes to pass.  We are still oversold here just as the S&P remains overbought.  I'm guessing that we'll see new all time closing highs for the S&P 500 at some point next week.  I had thought that the lack of the US coming up with the next stimulus deal would throw the market for a loop.  However it appears that the market is ignoring that for now.  I did chase the SPY August puts this week and failed.  They did show a quick profit by the close on Tuesday but things reversed overnight and I was stuck with another losing couple of trades.  We now approach expiration week with the high risk that it entails.  I'm not exactly sure that I'm up to the task.  I'll have time to mull over the charts and see what I can find this weekend.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was a mixed bag today as the Dow lost 80 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The NASDAQ posted a gain.  I still think that the market is on borrowed time here and won't rule out trying the SPY August puts again before option expiration next Friday.  The volume has tailed off lately that I don't even think that summer qualifies as the excuse.  Perhaps the S&P 500 will close at a new all time high soon but if we don't see any real interest, I doubt that we'll see a breakout here.  I could be wrong.  GE was off 1/8 on very light volume.  Gold continues to bounce as the futures gained over $25.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU was up 4 7/8, while GDX rose 1 3/8.  Volume was light.  I am interested in the September GDX calls.  The gold shares are short term oversold finally.  I'll try and not let that over $100 loss in gold scare me away form being positive on gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was down a bit and remains parked near its lower Bollinger band.  The Bollinger bands continue to contract and I do believe that something big is coming soon for the market.  Perhaps even before the August expiration.  This is why I continue to watch the SPY August puts.  I do not see how it can be an explosion to the upside but I guess you never know.  Even though I just had three losing trades with this idea it continues to simmer in my thoughts.  However with only six days left in the August option cycle perhaps if I do try it and it works I'll get out with some profit for a change.  I'll keep an eye on things and we'll see how it goes.  The gold share calls are also on my radar since we have finally reached short term oversold again.  Asia was generally higher with Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how the market reacts to the retail sales numbers tomorrow. 

The market gapped higher at the open and never looked back as the Dow gained 289 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  It appears that my idea that this would not be the quickest bear market on record is about to go down in flames.  We are just about there on the S&P 500.  The light volume hasn't been a problem yet for the market.  I sold out all my positions for the SPY August puts.  Once again I wasn't able to manage the trade correctly and took losses.  The lower strike price had a 55% loss, with the higher strike price losing 20%.  Yesterdays gains vanished at the open.  That's three losing trades in a row in the past week and my confidence is now lacking.  At this rate it looks like we'll grind it higher into the option expiration next week.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was average.  Gold had a bounce today after yesterdays shellacking.  It was only up a few bucks but came way up from its intra-day lows.  The US dollar finished little changed.  It probably needs time to build some kind of base before going higher again.  That's my best guess at the moment.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling disappointed that I did not take the gains that I had yesterday on the SPY puts.  While I thought that it could be the beginning of at least some type of more than one day decline, it wasn't.  The continuing higher NASDAQ combined with the rising summation index should have let me know that the short term overbought condition that I was watching wasn't about to simply end.  The touching of the lower Bollinger band in the VIX isn't working as a longer sell signal anymore.  The short term technical indicators there have already rolled back over to the downside.  Now I suppose the question is where do we go from here?  There's still seven days left in the August option cycle.  The Bollinger bands on the VIX continue to contract so there is something brewing in the near future.  Maybe it's a burst to the upside like today.  Or perhaps I should have just held on to the puts with today being the final push for the bulls.  When in doubt, stay out.  I suppose that it's back to the sidelines for me.  Europe and Asia were both up in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index was up over 350 points during the session but finished with a loss of 104 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The market started to drop in the final two hours of the session.  We were very overbought in the short term and a decline was inevitable.  It took longer than I thought.  Now was it a one day wonder or the sign of things to come?  I certainly wish that I knew the answer.  I did go ahead and purchase some more of the SPY August puts when the market opened at a higher strike price than the ones that I already owned.  They are showing a profit.  Even the lower strike price puts that I bought yesterday are showing a very small gain.  That's how quick things can change in the game.  I'm now holding more options that I usually do but hopefully I'll be able to manage it properly.  GE was up a few cents on good volume.  Gold got absolutely hammered as we saw a rise for interest rates in the US.  The August gold futures lost $117!  Over a hundred dollars down in one day.  The US dollar was only slightly higher.  The XAU dropped 11 1/2, while GDX fell 3 1/3.  Volume was good.  Up trend lines from the March lows have been broken for the gold shares.  Almost oversold on a short term basis.  We should find support at the 50 day moving average for GDX.  There's also plenty of support between 35 and 37 there.  I still like the calls longer term now for GDX.  Perhaps the September option cycle once things settle down here.  Gold had been moving straight up for a while and like we said, that never ends well.  This time was no exception.  Had I been paying more attention perhaps I could have tried the GDX puts.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX broke through its lower Bollinger band today only to turn around a close with a gain.  The short term technical indicators here have now turned back up.  So there is a chance this could be more than a one day decline but I'd be guessing if I said that I knew.  Managing the trade is usually a difficult proposition and that's where I'm at for the moment.  Plenty of time left in the week and one down day doesn't make a trend.  Right now I'm inclined to think that I'd better take whatever profit that I can out of this trade.  But we'll have to see how things progress overnight.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The market begins the week on the plus side as the Dow gained 357 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving up.  The Dow was stronger than the overall market with the NASDAQ in the red again.  No breaking news although over the weekend there were some executive orders signed by the president in lieu of no deal on the US stimulus package.  Still overbought and perhaps my idea here for the SPY August puts is simply wrong.  The ones I own are showing a loss.  I did try to move up a couple strike prices for some more of the puts but the order wasn't filled.  Not sure if I'll try this again tomorrow.  I am pretty confident of at least some kind of short term decline in the very near future.  Hence the August put position.  But who knows?  Maybe we just remain very overbought until option expiration.  GE was up 1/4 on good volume.  Gold was up over ten bucks on the August futures.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was off 1 1/8, while GDX dropped 1/3.  Volume was light.  Once again the gold shares are underperforming and that isn't bullish.  Not completely oversold on a short term basis for the gold shares.  I'll be looking at the calls here when we get there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX bounced around and finished a touch lower today.  The Bollinger bands are starting to contract and we know what that means.  I'm pretty sure that we'll see a rise in the VIX and a drop in stocks very soon.  Whether or not I can trade it successfully if that does occur is another question.  I suppose that we'll find out this week.  One of the pandemic virus stocks that I was looking at, SRNE, has taken off to the upside.  It certainly would have worked to buy the August calls there or even the stock outright.  Juts another missed opportunity.  HOLX which I was also looking at has dropped in the past week after the earnings rally.  I will look to try the calls there for the next earnings cycle in a couple of months.  For now I'll continue the focus on the SPY and whether or not to try a higher strike price tomorrow.  Asia was mixed with Europe slightly higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

It was a back and forth session but the Dow managed to have a gain of 46 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is grinding higher.  The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow.  The jobs report was just a bit better than expected but the market traded down at the open.  Up and down all day until we headed higher in the final hour and a half.  Still not US stimulus deal but it will happen eventually.  I bought some SPY August puts during the session.  I did however sell them at the close so I could move up a strike price that I had originally desired.  When that order got filled at the price that I wanted I sold the first batch of the lower strike for a small loss of 15%.  Now I don't usually buy and sell a position in the same day so we'll see what happens.  My thinking was that moving up to a better strike price would pay off more than simply holding on to the first purchase.  Of course if we don't see some decent selling next week the strategy simply compounded the loss.  The S&P remains overbought but I will say that todays price action seems to imply higher near term prices.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold finally showed some red as the futures dropped over $30.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 5 1/2, while GDX shed 1 1/2.  Volume was about average.  The gold shares not following gold higher the prior sessions was tip off for todays negative price action.  The short term technical indicators for the gold shares have now rolled over.  When we get oversold here will be the time to try the GDX calls again.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  Trading the SPY requires a lot of constant paying attention and adjusting as you go along.  I was set on getting some kind of SPY put position today though.  Of course if there is an 11th hour stimulus agreement, the market should rally on the open Monday.  That would set up for another losing trade.  The VIX was lower and remains oversold.  The TRAN and IWM were both up pretty good today and that's a positive going forward.  I'm going to have to look everything over again this weekend to make sure that I have at least some idea of how long I want to hold on to this new trade.  The market certainly won't stay overbought forever but it sometimes can remain that way longer than your trades can hold out.  Asia was lower and Europe higher to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 185 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index is trying to move higher but remains stuck in a sideways pattern for now.  I did place an open order again for the SPY August puts but wasn't filled.  I'll probably try again tonight or perhaps wait and see what the reaction is to tomorrows jobs report is.  Overbought any way you look at it but the market remains undeterred.  It is a light volume affair though and I certainly don't trust that.  But you can't argue with price and it appears that new all time highs are coming around the corner.  Still no US stimulus deal but that will happen and could be the final boost in this rally.  Or not.  I still think that I'll try the index puts tomorrow on any strength.  GE lost a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold continues to shine as the August futures were up another twenty bucks.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was light.  The gold shares have diverged lower from the price of gold in the past two sessions.  May or may not mean anything.  The trend remains up regardless.  I did want to be long the gold shares heading into tomorrows employment report but my focus is on the SPY right now.  Gold is wildly overbought and in a straight line up.  That never ends well.  I still like the GDX calls though because money is flowing into gold and silver.  However I am waiting for some type of pullback/pause before trying anything there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX touched its lower Bollinger band again today.  That used to be a reliable sell signal.  Still oversold here and no really giving me any kind of signal but I haven't been reading this right for a while.  It's been a solid week so far for stocks but the volume is certainly lacking.  That may just be a function of it being the beginning of August or it could be that it really is a weak rise.  The McClellan oscillator isn't at the usual high readings that we'd like to see in a rally that has more legs.  It's another argument in the favor of trying the SPY August puts sometime soon.  As always, timing is everything.  Asia and Europe were mixed last night.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It's up, up and away as the Dow gained 373 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to move higher.  The Dow was stronger than the overall market today.  Still overbought and still moving higher for the major stock indices.  I did place an open order for the SPY August puts but it wasn't filled.  I still want to own some before the jobs report on Friday.  However if I cannot get the price that I'm asking, I may just stay on the sidelines.  Still waiting on the next US bailout package.  My thinking is that I'd like to short the rally that ensues from that announcement.  However I cannot predict when the announcement will arrive.  Plus there's always the chance that we are simply in a liquidity driven market rally.  As usual the trading is never easy.  GE was up 1/4 on good volume.  Gold continues its straight line up as the August futures rose $18.  The US dollar continued its free fall.  The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX was flat.  Volume was average.  Gold and the gold shares are long overdue for some kind of rest.  If we make it back to the up trend line here, then it may be worth a shot at the calls.  But it would probably be a better idea to wait until things get oversold and that hasn't happened in a couple months.  One thing for certain is that gold cannot go straight up forever.  The good volume here does say that the rise is for real.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX dropped again and remains oversold.  It still implies that higher prices are coming in the near term.  Regardless, I still may leave in another open order for the SPY August puts tonight.  I'll have to keep an eye on the overnight headlines since any news of the next bailout will be market important.  The underlying pandemic virus conditions remain the same.  Another up day for the S&P tomorrow will have one of my short term indicators overbought.  Most of the other short term gauges are already there.  We'll see how it goes tonight.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another day, another gain as the Dow climbed 164 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were once again about 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn up here.  We trended sideways for most of the day and then went up in the final hour to close near the high for the day.  Overbought, staying that way and at this rate we'll be back to new all time highs before the August option expiration.  It looks more and more that my idea for the SPY August puts ahead of the employment report on Friday is the wrong one.  That said if we do continue higher into Thursday or even tomorrow, I may give that idea a shot.  But it does seem that there is so much money out there to purchase things that a decline would only be short lived.  This is one artificially propped up market to be sure.  GE was up three cents and the volume was lighter.  Gold is a runaway freight train that I should be on.  The precious metal futures jumped $45, yes $45 in a single session.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU was up 6 1/2, while GDX added almost two points.  Volume was average.  Any and every short decline is being bought and I certainly know this and should have bought some calls here recently.  This is a move that can be chased.  Todays rise was pretty massive though and at some point some real profit taking will kick in.  Gold closed above $2000.  It probably has more room to go up.  It is acting like a mania though at this point.  I'm looking for a weaker jobs number on Friday and a continued gold rally into the close that day.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower and remains oversold.  It isn't generating any kind of clear signal for me at the moment.  SRNE, which I canceled my order for the calls there yesterday, was up $3.  HOLX, which I missed out on, continued higher.  Money certainly is flowing into the pandemic virus stocks.  I'm not sure why I haven't tried them but I do think it has to do with the fact that it really isn't my area of expertise.  Or perhaps I'm just too lazy to pay attention to these ideas.  Successful trading does require a good ability to focus.  I think that recently I've maybe tried to do too many things at once.  I should probably just stick to the SPY and GDX.  There's always opportunities there if you're good enough to take advantage of them.  Right now it appears that there's no way to go but up for them.  I'm sure that won't last forever but it is hard to get in front of that momentum.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see if there is nay upside follow through tomorrow.

A rally to begin the month of August as the Dow added 236 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up but it is trending in a sideways pattern.  Once again the NASDAQ is leading the way higher.  The overall market remains overbought and staying that way.  I'm still considering the SPY August puts if we continue higher into Wednesday.  However I'm not that confident about taking such a position due to the seemingly endless source of money flowing into stocks.  It won't last forever but with the summation index forming what I perceive to be a ledge, I'm willing to take a shot.  But I certainly could be making a mistake.  GE was up a few cents on good volume.  Gold was up $8 on the August futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU was off 1 13/4, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was light and the gold shares finished well off of their lows for the session.  I'm also willing to try the GDX August calls before the jobs report on Friday if we see a drop back to the up trend line at 41.  It certainly doesn't appear that will happen as any selling in the gold shares is met with buyers.  This has been going on for months now.  GDX hasn't been short term oversold since the beginning of June.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX bounced around today and almost touched the lower Bollinger band again on the daily chart.  The short term technical indicators here did turn back up but they remain oversold.  I'm not sure if I'm going to leave in an open order for the SPY August puts in tonight.  I may wait until Wednesday to see if the market cooperates.  I did cancel my order for the SRNE August calls.  I'll be keeping an eye on this stock over the week as earnings and the FDA ruling are supposed to be due out in a week on Monday.  But it continues to move higher and I'm not about to chase it.  Attempting to trade the pandemic virus stocks is fraught with risk.  The game is risky enough as it is.  I am quite sure that there is money to be made in this field.  I'm just not sure if I'm qualified for the task.  HOLX was at least a legitimate company with earnings.  Some of the rest that I'm looking at are money losing companies that might have a chance to get profitable if their products are adopted.  But that's a big if.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight following the US markets lead.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.