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Tuesday, August 25, 2020

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 60 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The summation index is still moving down.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 setting new all time highs.  We remain short term overbought on all of the major stock averages.  I'm not sure just how much longer this can go on but it's usually longer than you think.  Not a lot of economic data for the rest of the week but we do have the Fed chairman making a speech on Thursday.  That could get things going either way.  But for now it's simply higher we go.  GE was off a few cents on average volume.  Gold finished the session a bit lower but did manage to come up off of the lows for the day.  The US dollar was slightly down.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  They also finished well above their lows for the day with possible hammer patterns on the daily candlestick charts there.  GLD is at its up trend line that began in March and is at a logical place to hold the recent decline.  If the line is violated then the picture will change.  Today could have been the proper time for the GDX September calls.  We'll know for certain in the coming days.  I did consider purchasing some but the premiums remain elevated due to the amount of time left in them.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower and the indicators are starting to try and roll back down.  If that occurs the rally will continue.  The Bollinger bands continue to contract and it appears that the move it's implying is to the upside.  Perhaps we'll see some kind of blow off top.  That's just a guess on my part.  For now I'll simply sit on the sidelines until a decent signal appears.  That's the course of action or inaction that I'm choosing at this time.  I'll look things over again tonight and go from there.  Asia was up and Europe mixed last night.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.  

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