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Thursday, August 27, 2020

Volatility returned as the market traveled up and down after the Fed speech in virtual Jackson Hole.  The Dow managed a gain of 160 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ in the red.  The Dow was up almost twice as much as where it finished.  Overdue for some selling and the market does remain short term overbought.  I am looking at the SPY September puts but I would like to let the month of August come to a close before purchase.  The stock market will not go up forever.  GE was flat on the session and volume was light.  Gold saw the same volatility as the stock market and finished with a double digit loss after being higher early on.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU fell three points, while GDX shed almost a point.  volume was light.  Perhaps I'll get a chance for the GDX September calls after all.  The 39 level would be the ideal target for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked and then fell back but still finished higher on the session.  It was a wild ride but it did manage to finish back within the Bollinger bands.  I do think that the return of volatility is telling us something and I think that means be prepared for lower prices.  Perhaps not immediately but definitely within the September option cycle.  I'm getting a short term sell signal on one of my indicators which could trigger any day.  In fact the longer the market keeps finishing the day with a gain, the stronger this particular sell signal becomes.  I'm not sure if will lead to just a one day decline or something longer.  But with what we saw today in the VIX, I'd again recommend to be cautious on the long side.  The coronavirus testing companies that I was looking at all fell today as Abbott Labs announced a cheap new quick test.  We'll see if it actually works.  Again, investing in the individual stocks comes with its own set of additional risks.  The gains can be rapid but so can the losses.  Europe and Asia were generally lower.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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