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Thursday, August 06, 2020

The rally continues as the Dow gained 185 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index is trying to move higher but remains stuck in a sideways pattern for now.  I did place an open order again for the SPY August puts but wasn't filled.  I'll probably try again tonight or perhaps wait and see what the reaction is to tomorrows jobs report is.  Overbought any way you look at it but the market remains undeterred.  It is a light volume affair though and I certainly don't trust that.  But you can't argue with price and it appears that new all time highs are coming around the corner.  Still no US stimulus deal but that will happen and could be the final boost in this rally.  Or not.  I still think that I'll try the index puts tomorrow on any strength.  GE lost a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold continues to shine as the August futures were up another twenty bucks.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was light.  The gold shares have diverged lower from the price of gold in the past two sessions.  May or may not mean anything.  The trend remains up regardless.  I did want to be long the gold shares heading into tomorrows employment report but my focus is on the SPY right now.  Gold is wildly overbought and in a straight line up.  That never ends well.  I still like the GDX calls though because money is flowing into gold and silver.  However I am waiting for some type of pullback/pause before trying anything there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX touched its lower Bollinger band again today.  That used to be a reliable sell signal.  Still oversold here and no really giving me any kind of signal but I haven't been reading this right for a while.  It's been a solid week so far for stocks but the volume is certainly lacking.  That may just be a function of it being the beginning of August or it could be that it really is a weak rise.  The McClellan oscillator isn't at the usual high readings that we'd like to see in a rally that has more legs.  It's another argument in the favor of trying the SPY August puts sometime soon.  As always, timing is everything.  Asia and Europe were mixed last night.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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