Wednesday, August 26, 2020
The market continues to climb as the Dow gained 83 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving lower. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow once again. New all time highs for the NASDAQ and the S&P. With the summation index moving down and the market moving up something has to give. We're now at a point on the short term indicators that should lead to some weakness for stocks. However we could get some kind of upside blow off as well. We may already be into it. Interesting times to be sure but all we care about is how to trade and make money from it. I am looking at the SPY September puts but the premiums remain elevated. We've got chairman Powell speaking tomorrow so we'll wait and see if that affects the markets and go from there. GE was off 1/8 on lighter volume. Gold was up $25 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU gained 4 1/2, while GDX was up a point. Volume was light. It looks like another missed trade here as yesterday was the time to purchase the calls here. GLD was back to its up trend line and the short term indicators on GDX had carved out a bottom. The premiums were high for the options but the time to act appeared to be right. I can hope things fall back from here but hope is not a trading strategy. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated for missing the GDX call trade. The VIX was higher again today as it bounced off of the lower Bollinger band. This too doesn't make sense as a rising VIX normally coincides with lower prices. The short term indicators are still mid-range there and the overall market is in rally mode. I'm really kind of at a loss of what to do here but I will not chase things higher for the SPY. There is no overhead resistance for the S&P but it remains a narrow market with just a few stocks leading the way higher. Unless we start to see better breadth I'm pretty convinced that we'll see this rally fail in the September option time frame. That's my best guess for now. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll get the first 2nd quarter GDP revision tomorrow but I think the main focus will be on the Fed chairmans virtual speech from Jackson Hole. We'll see how it goes.
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