Monday, August 17, 2020
The Dow began the week with a loss of 86 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is now tracking sideways. the overall market was much stronger than the Dow. It began with a gap higher at the open and traded sideways for the rest of the session. The S&P 500 will most likely close at a new all time high at some point this week. That's my guess. We are in the summer doldrums. The volume is light and the volatility is nil. Will this continue through the rest of August and on to Labor day? I certainly don't know the answer but it is entirely possible. GE was off about twenty cents and the volume was light. Gold soared to begin the week as the August futures gained over forty bucks. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dropped a bit as well. There has been volatility both ways in gold. The XAU was up 8 1/2, while GDX climber 2 1/2. Volume was average. GDX did get to short term oversold yet I did not buy the calls. That is just another mistake on my part. After gold shed over a hundred dollars in a day, I was gun shy about trading the gold shares right away. Wrong move on my part. If they roll back over again maybe I'll give the calls a try but they do remain overbought on a weekly basis and way above the 50 week moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues lower and remains oversold. There has yet to be a big move that's implied by the contracting Bollinger bands. Only four days remain in the August option cycle. The most prudent move on my part here is probably to stay on the sidelines since my grasp of market hasn't been all that good lately. But we'll see. If and when we see the new all time highs for the S&P, it will be important to watch what the market does after that. Expiration week usually has a positive bias and we saw that today but the participation is light. There's been no deal for the next US stimulus package and the market has shrugged it off. The pandemic virus remains. Asia was lower and Europe higher to begin the week overseas. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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