Well, so much for my short term bounce thesis.  The Dow sank another 354 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  Tariffs on Mexico now a possibility as the headline risk environment persists.  Oversold and staying that way as the bounce that I thought was due did not happen.  The measuring objective on the head and shoulders top for the S&P 500 is 2650.  We're 100 S&P points from there.  RUT has led the way lower and there isn't any support on that chart that I can see.  I suppose we'll just continue to get even more oversold.  Kicking myself for not owning the puts but the option premiums were very high with the extra week in the June cycle.  There will be other opportunities.  GE was off a few cents on lighter volume.  Gold took off to the upside as the futures gained $17.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 2 1/2, while GDX was up over 3/4.  Volume exploded on the upside.  There was a gap higher at the open for the gold shares and volume confirmed the move up.  I decided to try and chase it and bought some GDX June calls.  My order did get filled and they closed where I purchased them.  Three weeks to go in the June option cycle and this isn't my normal trading strategy.  However with the price move higher combined with the volume, I think this trade has a chance to be a winner.  Gold itself broke out above $1300 and its near term declining tops line.  A run to $1350 in the next three weeks is not out of the question.  Silver however did not follow and that could be an issue going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks to me like head and shoulders tops have been activated and there's more room to move lower for the major stock indexes.  2650 is the measuring objective for the S&P 500 in my view.  So we'll see.  I'm chasing the GDX call trade, following price and volume.  We'll see if there's any follow through higher on Monday morning.  There will be plenty of charts to go over this weekend as it is clear that the market may be on the verge of an actual breakdown.  I may be early in calling for that but if the summation index keeps falling it will approach the zero line.  If it breaks through the zero line, the market will fall apart.  We aren't there yet and I'm not sure that will be the outcome here.  But it is something to keep an eye on.  Europe and Asia were both lower to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Mild gains today as the Dow was up 43 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues lower.  Oversold all the way around here and I do think that the SPY June calls are in order for a very short term trade.  That's the most of what I can make out of what is happening here.  I'm probably not going to attempt that trade though as I am waiting for a light volume snap back in order to get short.  What looks to me like head and shoulders tops on many of the major stock averages are still in place.  But I would not be surprised if we rally in the near term.  GE was up a dime on average volume.  Gold rose $7 as the US dollar was flat.  The XAU was up a point and GDX gained 1/3 on light volume.  The short term technical indicators for the gold shares have turned up.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  End of the month coming up tomorrow so we might see some squaring of positions ahead of June.  Obviously it's been a down month for sure for stocks.  Perhaps we'll see more selling in June to set us up for some type of summer rally.  That's a guess of course as we will have to wait and see what the market tells us.  The VIX remains above 17 and I'd like to see it drift back to the 50 day moving average at around 15 in order to try the SPY June puts.  We'll see if the market cooperates.  I am getting some longer term signals that the market is nearing a buy on some indicators.  However we do remain in a negative seasonal time period and the threat of a negative headline remains.  Getting long should probably be a short term proposition at this time.  I could be wrong.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

The Dow got clobbered again today and lost 221 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  Support was broken today on the major indices that we've been discussing.  We did finish off of the lows for the session but there isn't much more positive that I can say.  Oversold, staying there and that isn't a good sign for the bulls.  I did consider getting some SPY June calls today since we are so blown out to the downside.  But that would not be a wise move either, as we've probably got a long way to go down if the head and shoulders tops are really in place.  So I am going to wait and see if I get a chance in the next few days to get the SPY June puts.  If not, I'll look for another idea.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  Gold was up slightly and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX barely moved on light volume.  It looks like the gold shares are trying to build a bottom here.  However if the US dollar continues to rise it would not help the gold shares.  I'm waiting to get some GDX longer term calls and I'll continue to wait.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There are still some potential RSI positive divergences on the major stock averages but we would have to see a move higher tomorrow for those to have a chance.  But the breakdown in support doesn't bode well for the divergences to pan out.  Although if the RSI theory does work, now would be the time to try the SPY June calls.  I just can't bring myself to do it though.  The summation index continues lower and I'm taking my lead from that.  The VIX rose above 18 today but it still has room to move up as well.  I think that I'll just sit out the rest of this week too but of course that could change with the market action tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight with Europe taking the worst of it.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

It was a one day reversal to the downside to start a shortened trading week.  The Dow fell 238 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  It looks like I won't be getting a chance to try the SPY June puts unless things turn around tomorrow.  The S&P is right at the support at the 2800 level.  It certainly doesn't feel like things will hold up here.  Buyers are on strike as it appears a slow down in economic activity is in the cards.  At least that is what the bond market is saying as yields have dropped.  It looks like the potential head and shoulders tops on some of the major indices are about to manifest themselves.  The market really needs to hold on tomorrow or it will bet ugly and fast.  GE dropped around 1/8 on average volume.  Gold was off about $5 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume.  No flight to safety here and gold remains unloved.  I am still looking at the longer term gold share calls though.  But there is no hurry to purchase them despite the oversold technical condition in my view.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market cannot seem to hold on to any gains lately.  Todays price action was particularly negative as we reversed course and then closed on the lows for the day.  The short term technical indicators also rolled over from an already oversold condition.  The levels to watch are 2800 on the S&P 500 and 1500 on RUT.  A decisive break on either one will spell doom for the bulls.  We're in a negative seasonal time frame as well.  So heading lower would not be a surprise.  The index options remain pricey though as there is still a lot of time left in the June option cycle.  I can only hope that things hold up here for a better entry point but I doubt it.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll be keeping a close eye on what transpires in the markets tomorrow.   

A quiet Friday ahead of a long weekend as the Dow gained 95 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  Less noise from the trade war today but it will always be in the background it seems.  The VIX remains above the 15 level so it is still a time to be careful.  RUT has managed to hold the 1500 level for now.  My view is that the stock market remain in a precarious situation and caution is warranted.  I'm still looking to purchase some SPY June puts if the opportunity presents itself.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was off a bit and the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Still no love for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The short term technical indicators remain oversold for the major stock indices.  There are some potential positive RSI divergences for a few of the indexes.  We would have to see a rally sooner rather than later for the divergences to pan out.  It isn't out of the question but I'm remaining with my bearish tilt for now.  I'll recheck the charts over the long weekend and determine what course of action to take from there.  Plenty of time in the June option cycle.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Heading lower as the Dow fell 286 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  We did finish off of the lows for the session but came close to breaching the support at 2800 for the S&P.  I do believe this level will break eventually and hope to own some SPY June puts before that occurs.  But the market may not give me the opportunity.  I still think that the Dow is forming a head and shoulders top here.  The 200 day moving average is holding for now but a break there will trigger the pattern.  We'll still hope for a light volume rally back towards the 50 day moving average for the set up.  But the market might not be so generous.  GE lost 1/3 on average volume.  Gold added almost $10 on the flight to safety.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX finished barely positive after being higher early on.  Not flowing gold here is a negative as interest in these stocks is almost non existent.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The trade war is back in the picture as worries about that have resurfaced.  No real news about that other than rumblings here and there.  But as long as the perception is that nothing will be done, the market will worry.  Just as the positive musings about the tariffs led to rallies, the inference that nothing will get done leads to declines.  It is not the best background to be trading but it is what it is.  The short term technical indicators remain more oversold than overbought.  The fact that we cannot get a sustained rally out of that is concerning for the bulls.  I'm sticking with my scenario of buying some SPY puts on a light volume rally from here.  If we simply drop now that trade is off.  the VIX is once again above the 15 level and that is something to keep an eye on as well.  One day left before a holiday weekend and I doubt we'll see a lot of buying ahead of that.  Europe and Asia were lower as we are seeing liquidation around the globe.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

We bounced around today but ended the session lower as the Dow fell 100 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving down.  it tried to turn around but failed for now.  Nothing really new to report today, all technical conditions remain the same.  It is a good week to watch in my opinion and that is what we'll do.  Patience is required for the next set up and we'll simply wait for that.  GE lost a few cents on average volume.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU dropped 1 1/4, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A couple more days before a holiday weekend in the US.  Combine that with the extra week in the June option cycle and you have your reasons for sitting things out.  I do believe that we'll get some kind of decent opportunity in the S&P for the June cycle.  I just don't what or when that will be.  I can say that it probably won't be this week.  So we'll remain on the sidelines for now.  Asia was up a bit and Europe mixed in the overnight trading.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 197 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  This should stop the summation index from heading down.  No news to speak of as the market is simply moving on its own volition.  A nice light volume rally to the 2900 level on the S&P would set up nicely for the SPY June puts.  That is what I hoping for at the moment.  Everything that was written here yesterday remains the same as far as the strategy and the technical factors.  Waiting out the week would seem to be the best course of action to take at this time.  it is a holiday weekend on tap as well.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold was off slightly on the futures and the US dollar was just the opposite.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Oversold here but no interest to take positions by the major players as of yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Seems like we're just hanging around now in the market, waiting for the next move to take shape.  The US/China trade talks seem to have been put on hold.  There will be a meeting of the leaders but that won't happen until the end of June.  That has moved headline risk to the back burner for now.  So it's a wait and see approach for me at the moment.  Earnings have pretty much come and gone.  We're waiting for the next market catalyst and I'm not sure where it will come from.  Patience for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow. 

Lower to begin the week as the Dow fell 84 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is moving lower.  We'll take our cues from that.  I'd like to get some SPY June puts if we get some kind of a set up.  But it may be that the market simply heads lower from here.  I looked things over this weekend and that is the strategy that I've determined.  Breadth is starting to weaken here on a consistent basis which is the opposite of what had been happening.  You can blame it on the tariff wars or whatever you'd like.  I'm hoping we'll move sideways here to take out some of the option premium as the prices are really high.  The extra week in the June cycle doesn't help on that front.  Headline risk seems to be taking a back seat here in the near term.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  Ditto for the XAU and GDX.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There's a potential head and shoulders top forming on the Dow daily chart.  The NASDAQ had a gap down today on the open.  RUT continues lower.  Most of the short term technical indicators for the major averages are oversold.  But we're not seeing the usual bounce up from there and that is why I'm leaning towards the bearish side here.  Negative seasonality is another factor.  I'd like to see things move sideways for a week or so and then attempt to purchase some SPY June puts.  But the market usually doesn't cooperate with my wishes.  Like I said, we may just head down from here.  We'll have to see how the week goes.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trading action.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Lower today as the market dropped in the final hour.  I'm not sure if it was expiration related or what.  The Dow fell 98 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is trying to turn around here but todays breadth didn't help.  The VIX is right around the 16 level which makes the beginning of next week important.  If the VIX can get down below 16 and stay there, the decline has ended in my view.  However if the VIX climbs early next week and the market falls then that changed things.  We'll just have to wait and see.  The seasonally good period for stocks is over, so I'm thinking that sideways will be the most we can hope for now.  Not to mention the market is at the mercy of the next headline out of China or the US.  So it's a trickier than usual trading environment.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold fell $8 on the futures as the US dollar was higher again.  The gold shares did not follow though.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling better.  Done with the medical stuff for now and full attention can be given to the game.  There's an extra week in the June option cycle so there's no rush to do anything until a decent signal comes forth.  Option premiums are high.  I'm still looking at the longer term gold share calls.  The S&P 500 is hanging around its 50 day moving average.  The short term technical indicators are mid-range.  Things could pretty much go either way here.  I'll have to check out some other things over the weekend.  RUT remains more oversold than overbought on a short term basis.  It has also been traveling in a sideways zone since February.  If it were to take out the low support at 1500, that would be the signal to buy some index puts.  Hasn't happened yet and I don't know if it will.  But it is something to follow as RUT is generally a leader for the market.  Again, I'll be checking things out over the weekend and we'll go from there.  Asia was generally higher with the exception of Hong Kong, while Europe was down.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

The Dow added to its gains today as it rose another 214 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive again.  The summation index is trying to turn around and I'm guessing that it will.  Trade tensions have moved to the back seat and buyers have returned.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Gold fell ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar was stronger.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Mentally I'm tired and just back from the hospital.  The blog will be short.  The VIX is back below 16 and its 200 day moving average.  That is a plus for the bulls.  But we'll just have to see where it goes from here.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  I'll be taking it easy tonight.  More on the markets tomorrow.

Another day of gains as the Dow rose 115 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving lower but is also trying to turn around.  No headline problems today for stocks.  The short term technical indicators have stopped going down but haven't turned around yet.  The VIX is moving lower and that's a plus for the bulls.  Moving averages are holding things for the most part on the major indexes with the exception of RUT.  Only a couple of days left in the May option cycle.  GE lost a few cents on average volume.  Gold was little changed, ditto the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX didn't do much today and the volume was light.  Mentally I'm a bit distracted with a hospital visit coming tomorrow morning.  If all goes well the blog will return tomorrow.  We've stabilized for a couple of days after Mondays crushing blow.  The fact that we've held up for now it good but it could all turn on a dime.  The next quote out of the US or China could move things up or down.  I'm hoping we'll take a break from that soon since these countries leaders aren't getting together until the end of June.  Technically we're short term oversold.  The blog is short today as my mind is on my health.  Trading has to take a back seat and that is no way to do it.  The game requires your undivided attention.  If you can't give it that, then the sidelines make perfect sense.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the news this evening.   

Got a snap back today as the Dow rose 207 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  No real trade news today as the market tries to regain its footing.  Oversold here on a short term basis to be sure.  The question is whether we see just a bounce from here or is this the bottom of a roughly 5% pull back in the S&P 500.  I'm not exactly sure what to make of things here as we are still at the mercy of the next US/China headline.  But if I had to guess, I'd say that the worst is over for now.  Perhaps some sideways consolidation before the next move is what you should be looking for.  GE was up almost 1/2 on average volume.  gold gave back some of yesterdays gains and dropped around five bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The 200 day moving averages have held things for the most part here with the exception of RUT.  It's something to keep an eye on.  Most of the indices today fell back from their highs for the session.  So there are still people looking to sell.  When we see some strength into the close, that will be a clue that the sellers a diminishing.  The VIX looks like it has put in a top here to me.  A close back below its 200 day moving average would be another positive clue.  Those are things to look for and they haven't happened yet.  A renewed decline from here that takes out the 200 day moving averages for the major indices would be a red flag.  But we're at the risk of the next headline and that's tough thing to try and trade.  I'm on the sidelines for now.  Asia lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow got pounded today as the trade war between the US and China heated up.  The most watched index fell 617 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  The positive price action and candlesticks from the previous two sessions were negated.  Moving average support has been broken now on many indices.  The S&P 500 is just about at the next support of 2800.  But RUT looks like it wants to head lower and there is still room on the short term technical indicators to move down.  RUT is generally a leader one way or the other.  The market is now hostage to the trade headlines and they are negative at the moment.  If there would be some kind of positive break through, we'd see a nice rally.  But it doesn't look like that is in the cards as the hard-liners have taken over the narrative.  Perhaps we move a bit lower before an oversold bounce but that's a guess as usual.  GE dropped 1/4 on average volume.  Gold finally found some buyers and was up $13 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX rose 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  Finally a flight to safety on the trade war news.  Plenty of room on the technical indicators here to go higher.  No trades in mind for me here yet though.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit distracted as I have a medical procedure scheduled for Thursday so my mind is not in the right place to trade.  The game really needs your full attention to be successful.  I don't have that now.  4 days left in the May option cycle.  Whatever I had thought about market direction is now confirmed wrong after todays price action.  The market does not look like it will hold up as I had planned and new all time highs are now off the table.  Even though nothing has fundamentally changed in the past week, we cannot ignore the price action.  We're at the mercy of the next headline or quote out of the US or China.  That is a tough way to make a living.  My mind isn't completely in the game here anyway so I'll be on the sidelines until further notice.  Getting oversold on the stock indexes but not there yet.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight with the exception of Hong Kong.  We'll see what kind of rhetoric shows up overnight.

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The Dow gained 114 points on average volume.  the advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  Tariffs came and it was already in the market.  Buying to lows today would have worked.  I just couldn't bring myself to do it.  The US/China drama isn't over though as a deal has yet to be done.  China says it plans on some kind of retaliation, so we'll have to see what transpires over the weekend.  The technical picture looks brighter though as moving averages have held for now.  The daily candlestick charts look promising as well, with potential hammers in place.  Plus the short term indicators are turning back up.  Of course that could all change with one negative headline but it could also lead to a rally with a positive one.  GE was up almost a dime on average volume.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on pretty light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite an interesting week in the markets.  The VIX has now rolled back down and that is a plus for the bulls.  On the longer term charts for the major averages there is a bearish potential double top in place if we don't rally back up and take out the recent highs.  Hasn't happened yet and I don't think that it will but it's something to keep an eye on.  Something else to watch is the weekly chart for RUT.  It hasn't been able to make it back above its 50 week moving average.  RUT is usually a leader, so I would keep an eye on it here.  Of course we're at the mercy of the news this weekend and anything that comes out of the US/China discussions.  It seems that the raising of the Chinese tariffs by the US didn't have the negative effect that most thought it would.  Or perhaps today was just some enormous short covering going into the weekend.  Whatever the case we should know more on Monday morning.  Option expiration week is upon us but I'm not sure that the usual positive bias will take effect.  That's a guess on my part.  It looks like the SPY May call trade was to be done today on the lows, so I wouldn't chase that idea anymore.  I'll be checking the charts this weekend to see what else is out there.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another loser on the day as the Dow fell 139 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving down.  We did get a signal on the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two trading sessions.  Perhaps today was it as the Dow was off around 450 points early on.  The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow.  The price action today looks like it is setting up for a short term bottom.  That would be my guess as the deadline for the tariffs is tomorrow and I'm pretty sure there will be some kind of last second deal that saves the day.  It is kind of ridiculous but that's the reality that we're in at the moment.  The daily VIX candlesticks chart also point towards some downside movement in that indicator coming up.  So don't be surprised by a huge rally tomorrow.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  Gold bounced a few bucks higher on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on pretty light volume.  These stocks are simply out of favor now for whatever reasons.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I did look at the May SPY calls today but the premiums were higher than usual due to the recent volatility.  So I didn't try that trade although I think that it will be successful on a short term basis.  The market is currently being held hostage by Trump and China.  You always have the choice not to play the game and I think that is appropriate for now.  Option premiums along with risk have been elevated due to the stand off between these two.  There will be some kind of save face announcement before the tariffs take place and the market will breathe a sigh of relief.  That is what I think will happen.  It would be comical if there weren't so much money involved on a trading and market basis.  Technically speaking, we are more oversold than overbought but that doesn't seem to matter when the headlines take over.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see what happens tonight and finish the trading week tomorrow.

The Dow came well off of its highs for the session and barely stayed positive.  The most watched index was up 2 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving down.  The NASDAQ along with the S&P were both lower.  We were positive for most of the day but things dropped in the final half hour.  Tariffs tensions loom and Friday will be a key.  I still expect some type of resolution before then but we're running out of time.  The VIX fell back again from higher levels today and that implies a move lower in the near term.  But things can turn on a dime with headline risk and I wouldn't count out any scenario going forward.  It makes for tougher than usual trading.  I'd like to try the SPY May calls with only seven days to go because I do not think either side wants an all out trade war.  Timing is the concern as always for the trade.  GE was up a nickel on light volume.  Gold was off a few bucks as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was down 1 1/3, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Today price action portends lower prices going forward but we'll see.  Support for the S&P 500 comes in at 2850 for the first line of defense.  That's where the 50 day moving average lies and it's where previous near term tops are.  That would be the logical spot to try some SPY calls if you wanted to do so.  It would be risky though because the short term technical indicators aren't completely oversold yet.  But if you kept the time frame short and got out when you showed some kind of profit, it would make sense.  If we knife through that level, then the market is in more trouble than I think.  Always an interesting game.  Gold has not reacted as you would expect here and is probably weaker than I give it credit for.  I should probably wait until the summer to try anything here again.  Europe up and Asia down overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

The Dow got clobbered today as it lost 473 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading down.  Tariff wars are back between the US and China with a Friday deadline.  We were off just about 600 points but made a comeback in the final half hour.  All the major indices were down but at least we didn't close on the lows.  The VIX jumped to almost a reading of 22 as volatility has returned.  I'm not sure exactly how long these conditions will last.  My best guess is that some kind of compromise is going to occur before the Friday deadline.  I do not think that either party wants an all out trade war.  But we'll just have to wait and see what happens.  However a huge rally in the next few days isn't out of the question in my mind.  Nothing has fundamentally changed in the past couple of days.  It's all simply rhetoric and mindless threats at this point.  Not to mention squeezing the low volatility players.  GE was off 1/3 on average volume.  Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed.  The XAU rose 7/8, while GDX added 3/8.  Volume was good.  It look like trying the GDX calls here would have worked but we'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The short term technical indicators on all the major indexes have rolled over.  Some of them still have room to drop.  We're approaching the 50 day moving averages for some.  Whether or not thing hold up there will determine if we're heading down to the 200 days or not.  The VIX is pretty overbought now and I would not be surprised to see a pause in the selling.  But the summation index has headed down with gusto, so care is needed on the long side.  Headline risk is now extreme in either direction and that isn't a good environment for trading.  Whipsaws become the rule and not the exception.  I would tread carefully here and be ready to exit trades after quick profits.  I do not expect an extended move lower here but I could be wrong.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.        

A volatile start to the week as the Dow opened 450 points lower and recovered during the session to close with a loss of 66 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The US/China trade talks are back in the picture as US president Trump said that if there is no deal this week, the trade tariffs will be increased.  That was quite a shock for the markets to handle but it seems as though they did.  Headline risk is back to being front and center for the markets.  So it could be an interesting week.  I did place an overnight order for the GDX May calls again on the assumption that an early sell off would be followed by buying in gold as a flight to safety.  The gold shares didn't sell off early with the market and I canceled the order.  This was an idea that had to happen quickly and it didn't.  I do like the way the S&P came back today but I wasn't looking at the calls here.  With a chance now that the talks could collapse, the risk has now changed overnight.  I will probably remain on the sidelines as originally planned.  GE lost a few cents on lighter volume.  Gold ended flat on the session as did the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX finished flat as well on light volume.  If gold can't get moving higher after todays volatility, I don't know what the catalyst will be for higher prices in the precious metal.  I suppose I'll be waiting to see if I can do a summer trade now here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but a little distracted with a doctors appointment tomorrow.  Back to the headline risk environment.  It's great if you're on the right side of the news but a total disaster if you're not.  The technical picture isn't as clear now as some of the major indices have had the indicators roll over while others have not.  Combine that with the whim of the politicans involved and you have a climate of uncertainty.  My best idea here is to wait it out but that could change with more data coming in.  The fact that things came back from the dead today for the market is a positive.  My gut feeling is that some type of agreement will be reached even if it has no teeth.  This way both countries can save face and claim victory.  Hollow as it is, that would be the best result that we can hope for at this point.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight with a couple of markets closed for holiday.  We will be keeping an eye out on whatever news comes in overnight.  

The market roared back on a good jobs report as the Dow gained 197 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were short of 4 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index back to sideways.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way.  RUT is breaking out above its near term resistance and that's a plus as well.  Too late for the SPY May calls as yesterdays lows were the proper entry point there.  The VIX is back below 13 and the middle of the week selling for stocks is in the rear view mirror.  We should set new all time highs again for the S&P next week.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Gold even had some buying as the futures rose around $8.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  I sold all of my positions in the GDX May calls to get them off the books.  It was practically a total loss as the trend line break this week was the kiss of death.  I'll come back to getting long here in the summer perhaps if GDX can build a base at the 18 level.  It certainly didn't help here that NEM had to shut down one of its leading gold producing mines and the stock got clobbered leading GDX lower.  But you simply chalk it up as another loss and move on.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We had a short term shake out this week and now it's back to moving higher for stocks.  It helps that the US market is where everyone around the world wants to be.  There still seems to be plenty of money around to chase stocks higher.  At some point that will change but I don't see it just yet.  We'll need to see some more IPOs head higher for companies that are losing money.  We don't have that kind of froth yet so keep an eye out for it.  I still expect the rally to continue into this months option expiration.  Asia was mixed and Europe positive to close out the week.  Two weeks left in the May option cycle and I don't have any trading ideas as yet.  I'll be checking the charts this weekend to see what I can come up with.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We did get some downside follow through as the Dow lost 122 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is trending lower but it isn't dramatic just yet.  The VIX almost made it up to the 16 level but quickly turned around.  I think that the decline is over and that we'll be heading back up to new all time highs for the S&P 500 before option expiration.  That's my best guess at the moment.  Now if we continue lower on the jobs report tomorrow, then that thesis is out the window.  The TRAN was up good today and RUT posted a gain as well.  So I am certainly not all that bearish here and expect higher prices are coming.  GE was up over 1/8 on good volume.  Gold was lower again today as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 1 1/3, while GDX fell 1/3.  Volume was average.  My GDX May calls are effectively dead.  I've got open orders in to salvage not having them expire but they probably won't be filled.  So it will be 100% losses tallied there.  Not a lot of money but these trades are doomed.  The weekly up trend line is now broken for the gold shares.  Support doesn't come in until much lower levels.  Perhaps the calls can be tried again in the July to October time frame.  There's some support for gold at 1250 but better support at 1200.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  A couple of days of decline for the markets but nothing serious in my view.  We'll see what the employment picture looks like and go from there.  I'm not looking at the SPY May calls as the next trade but it may be too late already.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.  Another couple of losing trades on the books but you've got to keep on going in this game.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trading action.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Today we had a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  It fell 163 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still basically moving sideways.  The Fed announcement came out and there was a brief rally.  I guess the market didn't like what it heard in the news conference afterward.  The VIX finally got a pop and is now above its 50 day moving average.  There was weakness across the board for stocks.  We'll see if there is any staying power to the decline the rest of the week.  GE turned around as well and lost a few cents on good volume.  Gold dropped too and the futures lost $8.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was good.  My GDX calls trades are dead.  Unless there is a comeback like last week, GDX will be breaking its weekly up trend line from last year.  That is bearish.  Oversold now for GDX but staying that way.  That is a negative as well.  Barring a miracle, it's just another couple of losing trades for me.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Is today the start of a long awaited decline for stocks or just another blip on the way to new all time highs in the future?  I think that we'll know more when the week is over.  We've got the jobs report and the market reaction to that to sift through on Friday.  No real technical damage was done to the major averages today.  The short term technical indicators have started to roll over.  I'm still in the camp for higher prices going forward but we'll know more by the end of the week.  We are entering the seasonal weak period for stocks but it rarely actually begins on May 1st.  Stay tuned.  Asia was mostly closed overnight and Europe was mixed.  We'll see if there is any downside follow through in the US Thursday.