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Wednesday, May 01, 2019

Today we had a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  It fell 163 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still basically moving sideways.  The Fed announcement came out and there was a brief rally.  I guess the market didn't like what it heard in the news conference afterward.  The VIX finally got a pop and is now above its 50 day moving average.  There was weakness across the board for stocks.  We'll see if there is any staying power to the decline the rest of the week.  GE turned around as well and lost a few cents on good volume.  Gold dropped too and the futures lost $8.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was good.  My GDX calls trades are dead.  Unless there is a comeback like last week, GDX will be breaking its weekly up trend line from last year.  That is bearish.  Oversold now for GDX but staying that way.  That is a negative as well.  Barring a miracle, it's just another couple of losing trades for me.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Is today the start of a long awaited decline for stocks or just another blip on the way to new all time highs in the future?  I think that we'll know more when the week is over.  We've got the jobs report and the market reaction to that to sift through on Friday.  No real technical damage was done to the major averages today.  The short term technical indicators have started to roll over.  I'm still in the camp for higher prices going forward but we'll know more by the end of the week.  We are entering the seasonal weak period for stocks but it rarely actually begins on May 1st.  Stay tuned.  Asia was mostly closed overnight and Europe was mixed.  We'll see if there is any downside follow through in the US Thursday. 

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