Monday, May 06, 2019
A volatile start to the week as the Dow opened 450 points lower and recovered during the session to close with a loss of 66 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading sideways. The US/China trade talks are back in the picture as US president Trump said that if there is no deal this week, the trade tariffs will be increased. That was quite a shock for the markets to handle but it seems as though they did. Headline risk is back to being front and center for the markets. So it could be an interesting week. I did place an overnight order for the GDX May calls again on the assumption that an early sell off would be followed by buying in gold as a flight to safety. The gold shares didn't sell off early with the market and I canceled the order. This was an idea that had to happen quickly and it didn't. I do like the way the S&P came back today but I wasn't looking at the calls here. With a chance now that the talks could collapse, the risk has now changed overnight. I will probably remain on the sidelines as originally planned. GE lost a few cents on lighter volume. Gold ended flat on the session as did the US dollar. The XAU and GDX finished flat as well on light volume. If gold can't get moving higher after todays volatility, I don't know what the catalyst will be for higher prices in the precious metal. I suppose I'll be waiting to see if I can do a summer trade now here. Mentally I'm feeling OK but a little distracted with a doctors appointment tomorrow. Back to the headline risk environment. It's great if you're on the right side of the news but a total disaster if you're not. The technical picture isn't as clear now as some of the major indices have had the indicators roll over while others have not. Combine that with the whim of the politicans involved and you have a climate of uncertainty. My best idea here is to wait it out but that could change with more data coming in. The fact that things came back from the dead today for the market is a positive. My gut feeling is that some type of agreement will be reached even if it has no teeth. This way both countries can save face and claim victory. Hollow as it is, that would be the best result that we can hope for at this point. Europe and Asia were lower overnight with a couple of markets closed for holiday. We will be keeping an eye out on whatever news comes in overnight.
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