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Wednesday, May 08, 2019

The Dow came well off of its highs for the session and barely stayed positive.  The most watched index was up 2 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving down.  The NASDAQ along with the S&P were both lower.  We were positive for most of the day but things dropped in the final half hour.  Tariffs tensions loom and Friday will be a key.  I still expect some type of resolution before then but we're running out of time.  The VIX fell back again from higher levels today and that implies a move lower in the near term.  But things can turn on a dime with headline risk and I wouldn't count out any scenario going forward.  It makes for tougher than usual trading.  I'd like to try the SPY May calls with only seven days to go because I do not think either side wants an all out trade war.  Timing is the concern as always for the trade.  GE was up a nickel on light volume.  Gold was off a few bucks as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was down 1 1/3, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Today price action portends lower prices going forward but we'll see.  Support for the S&P 500 comes in at 2850 for the first line of defense.  That's where the 50 day moving average lies and it's where previous near term tops are.  That would be the logical spot to try some SPY calls if you wanted to do so.  It would be risky though because the short term technical indicators aren't completely oversold yet.  But if you kept the time frame short and got out when you showed some kind of profit, it would make sense.  If we knife through that level, then the market is in more trouble than I think.  Always an interesting game.  Gold has not reacted as you would expect here and is probably weaker than I give it credit for.  I should probably wait until the summer to try anything here again.  Europe up and Asia down overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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