Thursday, May 30, 2019
Mild gains today as the Dow was up 43 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues lower. Oversold all the way around here and I do think that the SPY June calls are in order for a very short term trade. That's the most of what I can make out of what is happening here. I'm probably not going to attempt that trade though as I am waiting for a light volume snap back in order to get short. What looks to me like head and shoulders tops on many of the major stock averages are still in place. But I would not be surprised if we rally in the near term. GE was up a dime on average volume. Gold rose $7 as the US dollar was flat. The XAU was up a point and GDX gained 1/3 on light volume. The short term technical indicators for the gold shares have turned up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. End of the month coming up tomorrow so we might see some squaring of positions ahead of June. Obviously it's been a down month for sure for stocks. Perhaps we'll see more selling in June to set us up for some type of summer rally. That's a guess of course as we will have to wait and see what the market tells us. The VIX remains above 17 and I'd like to see it drift back to the 50 day moving average at around 15 in order to try the SPY June puts. We'll see if the market cooperates. I am getting some longer term signals that the market is nearing a buy on some indicators. However we do remain in a negative seasonal time period and the threat of a negative headline remains. Getting long should probably be a short term proposition at this time. I could be wrong. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.
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