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Friday, July 30, 2021

The month ended with a thud as the Dow fell 149 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. We opened with a gap lower and were negative for the remainder of the session. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. The NASDAQ was the weakest of the major indices overall. I'm still trying to figure out what's going on here. I still think that we're building a top here but my ideas haven't been exactly accurate lately. I guess we'll see what happens in the beginning of next week and go from there. GE was off 1/3 on light volume. Gold dropped $15 today despite a drop in interest rates. The US dollar had a bounce higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares continue to outperform the metal itself and that's bullish going forward. I'm still considering the GDX calls but now attempting to decide whether to try the August or September contracts. It also may be too late for this trade as well since the technical indicators have already moved up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did finish off of its early elevated levels. Not sure what is next for the VIX here. We'll be starting the month of August on Monday and still have three weeks left in this option cycle. I'll try and figure out something while going over the charts this weekend. Europe and Asia were lower to end the week. No summer doldrums so far for this year. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, July 29, 2021

GDP came in weaker than expected and the Dow rallied 153 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. This will turn the summation index back up. It appears that my ideas about lower stock prices have been incorrect as the market has proven me wrong once again. The S&P 500 does remain short term overbought. At this point I'm going to let tomorrow go by and try again for some kind of profitable idea next week. There's still plenty of time in the August option cycle. GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was light. Gold had a good session for the bulls as the futures climbed over twenty bucks on the December contract. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU was up 3 7/8, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume was good to the upside and the gold shares could be at the beginning of a rally here. We saw the signs earlier when the gold shares started to outperform gold. Unfortunately I wasn't paying enough attention as the GDX August calls seem to be the proper play now in retrospect. We still may get a chance here if GDX falls back to fill the gap that it created today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but still remains above its 50 day moving average. So there is still the potential for that area to hold and the market to move lower in the near term. However I'm beginning to think that may not be the case. With the end of the month tomorrow anything goes though. I'm looking to regroup over the weekend. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

Wednesday, July 28, 2021

Back and forth for most of the day with the Dow finishing with a loss of 127 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still drifting lower. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ up over 100 points. The S&P 500 finished flat. It was going to be a positve day for the S&P but it dropped in the final hour. The Fed had no surprises. I'm still leaning towards the SPY August puts on strength tomorrow. GE was up a nickel on average volume. Gold was up almost $10 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates ticked higher. The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was light. It is possible that a rally in the gold shares is starting now. The short term indicators have turned back up. Perhaps I've waited too long to try the GDX september calls but we'll see where we go from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and did bounce off of its 50 day moving average alond with the mid Bollinger band. Whether or not that support holds will probably tell us where the market is going to go. If the VIX breaks through there, the rally will continue. If not, we'll see some more downside. I'm still leaning bearish here for the stock market but the strong NASDAQ says otherwise. We'll see how the market reacts to tomorrows GDP report and go from there. Asia was mixed again and Europe was higher. We'll keep an eye on tonight headlines.

Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Heading lower today as the Dow fell 85 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading back down. The market opened with a gap down and sold off for the first half of the session. It them made a comeback to cut the loss in half. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought here. I'm still thinking about getting some SPY August puts on Thursday if things hold up until then. We'll get the Fed tomorrow and nothing new is expected there. But you never know. Earnings continue to pour in and have been positve so far for the most part. GE bounced around a lot today and finished with a gain over 1/8 on heavy volume. The reverse stock split will go in effect soon and I will probably discontinue following GE after that. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures today. The US dollar along with interest rates were a bit lower. The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume. I'm trying to wait to purchase some GDX September calls here. We are more oversold than overbought on the short term indicators. However if my thesis of lower stock prices takes hold, the gold shares will probably fall with it. I deally I'd like to get long GDX if it heads to the 31 level. That may just be wishful thinking. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and briefly made it over the 20 level. A move here back down to the 50 day moving average and mid Bollinger band line will be my cue to purcahse the SPY August puts. In a perfect world this would happen on Thursday morning. For now we'll just deal with the Fed tomorrow and go from there. Asia was mixed again and Europe lower. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Monday, July 26, 2021

Drifting higher as the Dow gained 83 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving down but is trying to turn around again. Still hugging the upper Bollinger band for the daily S&P 500 chart. Short term overbought here. My plan for now is to wait until the GDP report on Thursday to attempt to get some SPY puts. That will get the Fed out of the way on Wednesday. We also have big tech earnings reports due out tomorrow. My hope is that the rise continues and last piece of news will be a robust GDP for the second quarter on Thursday. The market rarely cooperates. New all time highs all around today for the majoe stock indices. GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume. Gold fell four bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower while interest rates were little changed. The XAU gained 2 1/2 and GDX was up over 1/3. Volume was light. Once again the gold shares outperformed gold itself and that is bullish. I am still considering the GDX September calls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX was up today and closed on its 50 day moving averge. That doesn't fit with an up market. Short term oversold for the VIX here but not completely yet. Not sure how to read this indicator at the moment. Plenty of market moving potential this week with the Fed and economic data. We've also got the end of the month on tap. Plenty of time to go in the August option cycle. Europe and Asia were mixed overngiht. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Friday, July 23, 2021

Powering ahead to new all time highs in many of the major stock indices. The Dow gained 238 points to close above the 35000 level for the first time. The advance/declines were positive and volume was average. Monday is all but forgotten and clearly in the rear view mirror. I will have to rethink my bearish posture over the weekend as I did not expect the market to simply turn around and press on to new all time highs. The S&P 500 is now short term overbought but there is no overhead resistance. The NASDAQ remains a leader and that's a positive. Perhaps this will usher in the blow off top that I've mentioned before. Earnings are driving things at the moment and so far they've been better than expected for the most part. GE was flat and the volume was light. Gold was off five bucks or so on the futures. Interest rates were slightly higher and the US dollar finished the day little changed. The XAU fell almost a point, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was pretty light. No love for the gold shares as they remain oversold. I am still looking at the September GDX calls there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower as it is moving towards short term oversold. It is now midway between the Bollinger bands. The VIX remains below 20 and appears to be headed back down to the 15 level. Plenty of work to do this weekend as I try and figure out my next trade. This weeks reversal in stocks cannot be ignored. Certainly we haven't seen the usual summer slowdown. There's still plenty of time in the August option cycle. Hopefully I'll come up with a profitable idea. Asia was higher with the exception of the Hang Seng. Europe was up as well. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, July 22, 2021

A day of hanging around as the Dow rose 25 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The bounce appears to be running out of steam. Sideways from here for a couple of days would set us up to try the SPY August puts. However the premiums on the options are still rather high. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are not completely overbought just yet. At this point I'll wait until next week before deciding what to do. GE lost over 1/3 on light volume. Gold added four bucks on the futures. Interest rates ticked lower while the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU lost over a point, while GDX shed twenty cents. Volume was light. The gold shares are going sideways as they remain short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down slightly as we wait to see what happens there. I still would find it hard to believe that we're heading to new all time highs again but the NASDAQ has been leading the way back up so I suppose anything's possible. We'll see how the week closes out. Europe and Asia were generally higher. On to Friday.

Wednesday, July 21, 2021

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 286 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. Earnings are driving things higher for now as Monday seems like it's far in the past. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned around. I'm still not convinced that we will simply move on to new all time highs here but I could be wrong. I'm hoping that we'll build some kind of top here in the next few days that will give us a chance to purchase the SPY August puts. Remaining patient for now. GE was up over 1/3 on better than average volume. It's made up over a buck in the past two sessions. Gold fell five bucks on the August contract. The US dollar was slightly lower today and interest rates continued to move higher. The XAU gained 2 2/3, while GDX was up 1/3. Volume was light. The gold shares outperformed gold for a change and we haven't seen that in a while. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again and closed below its 50 day moving average. Back below 20 now on the VIX with the short term indicators pointing lower. The VIX is implying that the bounce has more to go. That is entirely possible but I will still wait to see if the summation index actually turns around. Hasn't happened yet. However I will admit that there still seems to be plenty of money to go around with the continued easy Fed policy. Europe and Asia gained ground overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Tuesday, July 20, 2021

We got a bounce and then some as the Dow gained 550 points on better than average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving lower. The McClellan oscillator was at an extreme yesterday and a bounce was due. Is it possible that the decline is over? Yes but I doubt it. The S&P 500 did bounce off of its 50 day moving average again. That has been the case since this rally began nine months ago. So it is possible that the market keeps on chugging forward. My thinking is that we'll build more of a top here hopefully. That would give me some time to purchase the SPY August puts at a better price. The short term techncial indicators for the S&P have turned or are starting to turn around. A weak volume move higher from here would be the ideal scenario. There is so much time in the August options that you don't have to be in a hurry to do anything. GE bounced back almost 3/4 on good volume. Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher. Interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. Still no interest in owning the gold shares. NEM reports earnings on Thursday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and made it back down below the 20 level today. Maybe it stays below 20 and maybe the market goes higher from here. However we can't trade on maybes. I think that we will have to see what happens when the McClellan oscillator makes it back up to the zero line. If it goes through that line and turns the summation index back up, then I'd say the decline is done for now. But if it gets back to the zero line and stalls that will be the time to purchase those SPY August puts. That's my thinking at the moment. Subject to change as we move along in time and the market reveals where it is going. It looks like no summer doldrums this year. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Monday, July 19, 2021

Down we go as the Dow fell 725 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. The Dow was off over 900 during the session. Return of the pandemic fears is the excuse for todays price action. But the breadth had been weak as we were moving up and the short term techncial indicators had already rolled over. The sell off on the first day of the new option cycle has inflated the premiums even more. The extra week in the August cycle doesn't help with the pricing either. The McClellan oscillator is pretty oversold here so a bounce should be coming soon. The S&P 500 did manage to hold on to the 50 day moving average here. However I'm still a believer in the SPY puts here and will be looking to purchase some on a bounce. Obviously the ideal time to buy has passed but that doesn't mean there won't still be some money to be made on the short side going forward. The NASDAQ has held up pretty well so far so perhaps the decline will not be severe. GE was off over 1/2 on heavy volume. Gold was off a few bucks and did come up from the prices lows on the day. The US dollar was up slightly but interest rates had a big drop. The XAU fell 3 1/4, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was good again to the downside here. I am looking at the GDX September calls. The problem here being that if the market does continue to fall, the gold shares will most likely follow. But if GDX gets completely oversold on the daily chart I will give this idea a try. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up above 25 today and did finish above its 200 day moving average. Not completely overbought yet so there might be a bit more downside before we see a bounce for stocks. No summer doldrums now in the stock market. Let's hope we see some kind of huge bounce soon as that will be the opportunity we're now looking for. Europe and Asia were lower as liquidation is now happening around the globe. They all pile in and they all pile out. We'll keep an eye on tonights ativities.

Friday, July 16, 2021

Sellers took over on Friday as the Dow fell 300 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now moved lower and it is not overbought anymore. I do think that this is the beginning of some type of down trend. How long and how far is the question. I'm hoping for some kind of move back up in order to purchase some SPY August puts. But it could already be too late. We will have to see how things go next week. GE was off almost 1/4 but the volume was light. Gold fell about twenty bucks as both rates and the US dollar were slightly higher. The XAU dropped almost 5 points, while GDX shed over a point. Volume picked up to the downside. After todays price action it appears the move coming due to the contracting Bollinger bands for GDX will be to the downside. But we will wait and see if there is any follow through next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and closed above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are now pointing up and that implies lower stock prices unless we see a turnaround on Monday. So it appears that we are a potentially inportant inflection point for the market at this time. I do think that we will head lower. I just don't know how far and how fast. I also could be wrong and that stocks take off to the upside from here on the coming earnings reports. But I really don't think that will be the case. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. Europe and Asia were generally lower to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Thursday, July 15, 2021

The market continues to send mixed signals as the Dow rose 53 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. Overall stocks lost ground today with the NASDAQ leading the way down. The market is trying to figure out what to do here. The least case scenario in my mind would be for some type of sustained rally from here but who knows? The S&P 500 remains overbought but the short term technical indicators have now rolled over. The summation index has been heading lower for a while now but we haven't really seen any drop in price. Not sure exactly what that implies. I'm still looking at the SPY August puts. GE was off a nickel on light volume. Gold was up a buck on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates continued to decline. The XAU was up a point and GDX up 1/4. Volume was pretty light. The Bollinger bands for GDX are contracting to the point that a major move for this index is in the offing. As usual the question of which way is the issue. I am starting to take a closer look here though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today despite a gain in the Dow but that does fit the overall market decline. Still around mid-range for the indicators here so it could go either way. We haven't seen the usual positive market bias that is usually associated with option expiration week this time around. We will also be rolling into the August option cycle on Monday that has an extra week in it. Premiums there remain elevated. Patience for now. Europe and Asia were generally lower. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Wednesday, July 14, 2021

Back to a mixed bag as the Dow rose 44 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving lower. Inflation data was higher than expected again today. Also the Fed chairman began his testimony on capital hill today. Will finish tomorrow. The market just bounced around today. The NASDAQ finished lower. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. So far this week has been a sideways event with only a couple of days left. I'm still inclined to let this week pass and go from there. GE was off eight cents and the volume was light. Gold found some interest today as the futures gained twenty bucks. Both interest rates and the US dollar were lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares have not kept up with the price of the precious metal lately and that is not bullish. I'm looking at the longer term GDX calls but in no hurry to purchase. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. I'm not getting any kind of signal here now one way or the other. The VIX hasn't been giving me any market direction clues lately or I haven't been able to figure them out. I'm still a believer in lower stock prices for the August option cycle. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Tuesday, July 13, 2021

Some selling today as the Dow fell 107 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. The inflation data was higher than expected and the market shrugged it off early in the session. However as the day wore on equities moved lower. Still short term overbought for the S&P 500 but there is now a possible negative divergence on the daily RSI. The breadth lately hasn't really supported the move higher in my opinion. We are closer to the end of this rally in my mind. It is just a matter of positioning for the inevitable decline. The August SPY put premiums are still pretty high but that's where my focus will be. GE was off almost 1/4 on light volume. Gold bounced around today and finished up a couple of bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX was up over 1/3 on average volume. The gold shares pulled back from their highs of the session, following the overall market. Maybe if they get oversold again I'll consider trading the calls there but the lack of recent volume is a concern. Plus if I'm correct about a market drop the gold shares will probably go with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits a lower market. Short term technical indicators here remain mid-range. The VIX seems to be indicating that things could go either way here. We'll get more inflation data out tomorrow. Then the Fed chairman in front of Congress to close out the week. I'm remaining on the sidelines for now. Asia was higher and Europe close to finishing unchanged overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Monday, July 12, 2021

New all time highs all around as the Dow gained 128 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn around again. Short term overbought, staying that way and no overhead resistance. Like a broken record. Option expiration week is upon us and I still believe that things will run up into Friday. I could be wrong. I'm already looking at the SPY August puts. I'd like to see a top that takes a little time to build but a blow off to the upside is possible as well. The market will not remain overbought forever. GE was off a nickel on average volume. Gold dropped a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell two points, while GDX lost 1/2. Volume was average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was little changed and the short term indicators have stalled. It looks like the VIX could go either way here. Inflation data due out in the next couple of days followed by the Fed chief in Washington to speak before Congress on Thursday and Friday. So there are potential market moving episodes to come. I won't be trying any of the short term July option trades this week if I can help it. Europe and Asia were higher as the money flow into stocks continues around the world. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Friday, July 09, 2021

Volatility has made a return as the Dow stormed back to the upside today with a 448 point gain on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending lower. A new all time high close for the S&P 500. It remains short term overbought and staying that way. There's no news to account for todays rise but the light volume is a warning sign in my book. I think that we are closer to the end of this bull rally than the beginning. Maybe we'll get a blow off top and maybe we won't. At the least I think things will hold up until the expiration next Friday. After that I'll be looking for the SPY August puts. GE was up over 1/4 but the volume was light. Gold rose $6 on the August contract. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. Mixed messages there. The XAU gained 3 1/3, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was light. The gold shares did outperform gold today though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sank today and the short term indicators here have turned back down. This implies higher stock prices going forward but this indicator hasn't been reliable lately. Back down away from the 20 area on the VIX and that is bullish. It is now just a matter of waiting next week out and taking things from there. An extra week in the August option cycle means that there's no hurry to do anything. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, July 08, 2021

The summer doldrums took a day off today as the Dow fell 260 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. We opened with a gap lower and the Dow was off 550 points during the session. There wasn't any news to spark the sell off but perhaps the extreme overbought conditions finally came home to roost. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought but the indicators have turned back down for now. I don't think that today is the beginning of a sustained move down but I could be wrong. Perhaps we're at the start of building a top for the market. I still think that things will be held up until the July option expiration has passed. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. Gold finished little changed on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates continued their decline. The XAU lost over 4 1/2, while GDX was off by 7/8. Volume was light. The gold shares followed the overall market lower. They are underperforming the price of gold and that's not a good sign for the bulls here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up today and was above the important 20 level today before pulling back. The short term technical indicators here have now turned around and are solidly pointing higher which would imply lower stock prices going forward. Obviously this indicator hasn't been giving any reliable signals in the past couple of days. Or perhaps my take on what is going on with the VIX is wrong. The TRAN got slammed today. It's been heading lower for a couple of months. Maybe this index is telling the story. However it is hard for me to get real bearish when the NASDAQ continues to make higher highs. I'm still in the mindset of waiting out the rest of the July option cycle before putting on the next trade. August options will have an extra week in them though. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. It appears that the markets know something that we do not. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Wednesday, July 07, 2021

Just another summer day as the Dow gained 104 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trending lower. New all time highs for the S&P 500 as it remains overbought on the short and medium term indicators. Nothing's changed as we still look for higher prices heading into next weeks July option expiration. We'll see how things go after that. GE was up a few cents on lighter volume. Gold was up $7 on the August futures contract. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates continue to fall. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume. There's still no interest in the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished off of its highs again today and was slightly lower. Still below the 50 day moving average here and that is a positive for stocks going forward. I get the feeling we will drift higher for the next week or so and then reassess the situation. The market has tried to sell off for a couple of days now without success so it looks like higher prices are coming despite the continued overbought technical conditions. Not exactly the summar doldrums but there probabaly won't be any big moves one way or the other soon. That's my best guess at the moment. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Tuesday, July 06, 2021

We finally saw some selling today as the Dow fell 208 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to trending lower. Todays price action was what I was looking for on Friday. The Dow was off over 400 points during the session. However I don't think this the beginning of a sustained decline just yet. The NASDAQ was up on the day and the S&P 500 sold off but made quite a comeback. So I still think things will run up into the July expiration. I could be wrong. The general market is still overbought but trying to work off the extreme level. GE was off 3/8 on average volume. Gold was up five bucks on the futures as interest rates fell. The US dollar was higher though. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. The short term indicators for both gold and the gold shares have turned back up but there still doesn't seem to be any interest in owning them. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed all the way to its 50 day moving averge before falling back. It still finished higher on the day with the early drop off in stocks. I do not think that this is a precursor to lower prices in the near term. The VIX remains comfortably below the 20 level. A short trading week here in early July and I couldn't come up with any ideas over the weekend. It's a light week for economic data. I'll be on the sidelines for now. Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Friday, July 02, 2021

Higher and higher we climb as the Dow gained 152 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is now tracking sideways. The jobs numbers were better than expected but not enough for anyone to fear the Fed. My SPY July puts were losers from the open, which saw a gap higher. I took the over 30% loss and moved on. This was a trade that would be determined by the market reaction to the employment report. We are extremely overbought on a number of indicators that I follow but the market does not seem to care. The market is in full summer rally mode and I would expect this to last into the July option expiration in a couple of weeks. That doesn't mean that I won't maybe try the puts again next week for a short term trade because the overbought technical conditions cannot persist forever. The light volume on the way up can be discounted as a summer trait but that doesn't mean that there isn't cause for concern. The S&P 500 closed at another record high and finished above the upper Bollinger band. That conditon will not last. GE was off 1/8 on very light volume. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. Both interest rates and the US dollar were lower despite a better than expected jobs number. The XAU was up over 2 points, while GDX gained almost 1/2. Volume was light. Still just tepid interest in the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again, remains oversold and that story hasn't changed. As long as the VIX remains below 20, the trend will be up. However I would be careful chasing things here because this market is getting out of hand in my humble opinion. Why not just buy the calls you might ask? Buying calls with the extreme overbought condition we now face is not usually a recipe for success. The market price action has all the signs of a blow off top and you do not want to be the last one to be buying. These kind of things never end well. Just look at a daily futures chart for lumber over the last six months and you'll see what I mean. For now, we'll enjoy the ride higher in stocks. Europe and Asia were generally higher to close out the week. A long weekend on tap but there's plenty of work to be done to come up with a game plan for next week. Despite todays losing trade, I'll be searching the charts for the next idea. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, July 01, 2021

July begins to the upside as the Dow gained 131 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The S&P 500 was the strongest of the major averages and set another new all time high. Overbought, staying that way and there is no overhead resistance. We'll see how things go with the jobs report tomorrow ahead of a long weekend. My order for the SPY July puts was filled today. They are about where I bought them. This could be a trade that I simply exit tomorrow regardless if we're up or down. Some of the indicators are hitting extreme overbought levels but that is usually a sign of strength. We'll see how it goes. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Gold was up five bucks, interest rates were a bit higher along with the US dollar. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses after opening higher. Volume was pretty light. Remaining oversold for the gold shares as they have been for weeks. I thought that perhaps a bottom was being put in but there isn't any interest in owning the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and had a tight range. Low volatility is generally positive for stock prices. The TRAN and the Russell 2000 had good sessions. The NASDAQ was a laggard. Just waiting on the reaction to the employment report for now. That will determine if this SPY July put trade succeeds or fails most likely. Strength for the S&P ahead of this report usually means more gains to come. We'll see. Asia lower, Europe higher overnight. All eyes and ears on the jobs report tomorrow.