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Tuesday, July 13, 2021

Some selling today as the Dow fell 107 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. The inflation data was higher than expected and the market shrugged it off early in the session. However as the day wore on equities moved lower. Still short term overbought for the S&P 500 but there is now a possible negative divergence on the daily RSI. The breadth lately hasn't really supported the move higher in my opinion. We are closer to the end of this rally in my mind. It is just a matter of positioning for the inevitable decline. The August SPY put premiums are still pretty high but that's where my focus will be. GE was off almost 1/4 on light volume. Gold bounced around today and finished up a couple of bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX was up over 1/3 on average volume. The gold shares pulled back from their highs of the session, following the overall market. Maybe if they get oversold again I'll consider trading the calls there but the lack of recent volume is a concern. Plus if I'm correct about a market drop the gold shares will probably go with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits a lower market. Short term technical indicators here remain mid-range. The VIX seems to be indicating that things could go either way here. We'll get more inflation data out tomorrow. Then the Fed chairman in front of Congress to close out the week. I'm remaining on the sidelines for now. Asia was higher and Europe close to finishing unchanged overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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