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Wednesday, July 28, 2021

Back and forth for most of the day with the Dow finishing with a loss of 127 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still drifting lower. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ up over 100 points. The S&P 500 finished flat. It was going to be a positve day for the S&P but it dropped in the final hour. The Fed had no surprises. I'm still leaning towards the SPY August puts on strength tomorrow. GE was up a nickel on average volume. Gold was up almost $10 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates ticked higher. The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was light. It is possible that a rally in the gold shares is starting now. The short term indicators have turned back up. Perhaps I've waited too long to try the GDX september calls but we'll see where we go from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and did bounce off of its 50 day moving average alond with the mid Bollinger band. Whether or not that support holds will probably tell us where the market is going to go. If the VIX breaks through there, the rally will continue. If not, we'll see some more downside. I'm still leaning bearish here for the stock market but the strong NASDAQ says otherwise. We'll see how the market reacts to tomorrows GDP report and go from there. Asia was mixed again and Europe was higher. We'll keep an eye on tonight headlines.

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