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Tuesday, July 06, 2021

We finally saw some selling today as the Dow fell 208 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to trending lower. Todays price action was what I was looking for on Friday. The Dow was off over 400 points during the session. However I don't think this the beginning of a sustained decline just yet. The NASDAQ was up on the day and the S&P 500 sold off but made quite a comeback. So I still think things will run up into the July expiration. I could be wrong. The general market is still overbought but trying to work off the extreme level. GE was off 3/8 on average volume. Gold was up five bucks on the futures as interest rates fell. The US dollar was higher though. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. The short term indicators for both gold and the gold shares have turned back up but there still doesn't seem to be any interest in owning them. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed all the way to its 50 day moving averge before falling back. It still finished higher on the day with the early drop off in stocks. I do not think that this is a precursor to lower prices in the near term. The VIX remains comfortably below the 20 level. A short trading week here in early July and I couldn't come up with any ideas over the weekend. It's a light week for economic data. I'll be on the sidelines for now. Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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