Monday, July 19, 2021
Down we go as the Dow fell 725 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. The Dow was off over 900 during the session. Return of the pandemic fears is the excuse for todays price action. But the breadth had been weak as we were moving up and the short term techncial indicators had already rolled over. The sell off on the first day of the new option cycle has inflated the premiums even more. The extra week in the August cycle doesn't help with the pricing either. The McClellan oscillator is pretty oversold here so a bounce should be coming soon. The S&P 500 did manage to hold on to the 50 day moving average here. However I'm still a believer in the SPY puts here and will be looking to purchase some on a bounce. Obviously the ideal time to buy has passed but that doesn't mean there won't still be some money to be made on the short side going forward. The NASDAQ has held up pretty well so far so perhaps the decline will not be severe. GE was off over 1/2 on heavy volume. Gold was off a few bucks and did come up from the prices lows on the day. The US dollar was up slightly but interest rates had a big drop. The XAU fell 3 1/4, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was good again to the downside here. I am looking at the GDX September calls. The problem here being that if the market does continue to fall, the gold shares will most likely follow. But if GDX gets completely oversold on the daily chart I will give this idea a try. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up above 25 today and did finish above its 200 day moving average. Not completely overbought yet so there might be a bit more downside before we see a bounce for stocks. No summer doldrums now in the stock market. Let's hope we see some kind of huge bounce soon as that will be the opportunity we're now looking for. Europe and Asia were lower as liquidation is now happening around the globe. They all pile in and they all pile out. We'll keep an eye on tonights ativities.
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