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Thursday, July 29, 2021

GDP came in weaker than expected and the Dow rallied 153 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. This will turn the summation index back up. It appears that my ideas about lower stock prices have been incorrect as the market has proven me wrong once again. The S&P 500 does remain short term overbought. At this point I'm going to let tomorrow go by and try again for some kind of profitable idea next week. There's still plenty of time in the August option cycle. GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was light. Gold had a good session for the bulls as the futures climbed over twenty bucks on the December contract. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU was up 3 7/8, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume was good to the upside and the gold shares could be at the beginning of a rally here. We saw the signs earlier when the gold shares started to outperform gold. Unfortunately I wasn't paying enough attention as the GDX August calls seem to be the proper play now in retrospect. We still may get a chance here if GDX falls back to fill the gap that it created today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but still remains above its 50 day moving average. So there is still the potential for that area to hold and the market to move lower in the near term. However I'm beginning to think that may not be the case. With the end of the month tomorrow anything goes though. I'm looking to regroup over the weekend. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

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