Some weakness to begin the week as the Dow led the way lower with a loss of 557 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading sideways. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted small losses. The short term indicators for the S&P remain overbought but are trying to roll over. Earnings are still in the picture for this week but the main event will be the employment report due out on Friday. I'm not considering any SPY options trades at the moment. Gold got slammed and dropped $114 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 5 3/8, while GDX slid 1 1/2. Volume was light. Considering the drop in gold itself, the gold shares held up rather well. The short term indicators for GDX remain oversold and staying there. I'm now looking out to the GDX June calls. Considering the above average open interest in the GDX May calls it doesn't look like GDX will get much above the 90 level by option expiration next week if it even gets that far at all. GDX is also in the process of testing the longer term up trend line in the 85 area. If it doesn't hold that will be another negative for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits a down market. Some of the short term indicators here are now heading higher. Not sure what's coming next on the VIX. The market was fighting higher oil prices today and is still at the mercy of the next Iran conflict headline. It is also still short term overbought and that condition has gone on for too long already. Asia was higher and Europe lower to start the week. We'll see how things shape up tomorrow.

We started the day with a gap higher only to move sideways for the rest of the session. The Dow though ended in the red as it lost 152 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about even. The overall market fared much better with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closing at records. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 closed down from its best levels on the session and remains short term overbought. The daily candlestick chart here has a shooting star for today which would imply lower prices on Monday. We'll see. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU lost over 4 3/4 and GDX shed around 1 1/4. Volume was light. The short term indicators on GDX remain in the oversold zone. I am considering the GDX May calls but there is a short term down trend line still in place here. Not to mention the gold shares had a poor day when gold itself didn't do much and the overall market was higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished little changed and is still short term oversold. I'm not sure what's next for this indicator. We made it through the week with some of the major averages closing at new all time highs. There is no overhead resistance and the bulls are in charge. That said we are entering an unfavorable seasonal period in general for stocks. But we certainly don't know if that will hold true this time around or when any sustained selling would begin. I'll continue to focus on the short term trading ideas. We'll go over the charts in the next couple of days to try and figure something out for the May options cycle. Asia was mixed and much of Europe closed on holiday to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the upside as buyers took over after some early volatility. The Dow roared ahead by 790 points on pretty heavy volume. It was the leader of the pack today. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at new all time highs. The inflation data came in where expected. Tech earnings were positive for the most part with the exception of META. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 continue to remain overbought. No overhead resistance for the S&P as we begin to wonder just how high things will go. Gold was up $68 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 8 1/8, while GDX rose 2 points. Volume was a touch above average. The short term indicators for GDX remain oversold. I did place an order for the GDX May calls last night but it wasn't filled. GDX opened with a big gap higher and then traded sideways for the rest of the day. I canceled my order as it did not have a chance of getting filled. We will now have to decide if this idea is still worth pursuing. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with the positive move in stocks. The short term indicators have turned back down and some are already short term oversold again. The daily candlestick chart here now looks like it is going to go lower. Perhaps stocks will simply stay elevated into the May option expiration but that's a guess. Not exactly sure what our next trade attempt will be. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher last night. We'll begin the month of May and close out the trading week tomorrow.

More of the same as sideways price movement has been the theme of the past couple of sessions. The Dow did lose 280 points though, on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index has stalled. The Fed left rates unchanged as expected. Next up are after the bell tech earnings followed by an inflation report tomorrow morning. The NASDAQ posted a small gain and the S&P 500 had a small loss. The short term indicators on the S&P remain overbought. The daily candlestick chart here has a consolidation in progress after the recent huge run up. It is either building some kind of top or simply a pause before going higher. I'm not sure which it is but the S&P cannot stay overbought forever. Gold was off $47 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 9 3/8 and GDX dropped 2 1/3. Volume was average. GDX is short term oversold and in a down trend. The up trend line for GDX that began at the beginning of 2025 comes in around the 85 area and it is almost there. I would like to try the GDX May calls there but everything seems to be against taking a position on the plus side for gold right now. That said, I'll be taking a closer look overnight and might put in an open order for those May calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits with the Dow but not the overall market. The short term indicators here are now moving up. The daily candlestick chart here now looks like it wants to go higher which would not bode well for stocks. I'm not sure where the VIX is heading next. Markets are still at the mercy of the Iran conflict as oil prices soared today. That had an influence on what took place today. The news can drive things in either direction. Tough trading environment to be sure. However we cannot stay on the sidelines all the time. Asia was mixed and Europe down overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Lower today as the Dow dipped 25 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is now barely moving higher. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ losing over two hundred points. The S&P had a gap down at the open and then trended sideways. The short term indicatros for the S&P remain overbought. We've got the Fed tomorrow and no change in rates is expected. We still favor the SPY puts now with the market overbought but that doesn't mean that it can't go higher. Still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold fell $84 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates rose slightly. The XAU fell 16 2/3, while GDX lost 4. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX are almost completely oversold. I'm now looking at the GDX May calls as we missed the put trade here. There is a longer term up trend line for GDX that comes in at 85. That would be the spot to try the calls. If it doesn't hold the gold shares will be in trouble. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and that does not fit with a down market. The short term indicators here remain oversold in a sideways trend. Not sure what's next for the VIX despite the daily chart implying lower VIX values in the near term. As usual more questions than answers in this game. I'll see how the market reacts to the Fed and take it from there. Asia and Europe were down overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A meandering Monday as stocks drifted sideways to slightly higher. The Dow however fell 62 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up at a slower pace. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at new all time highs again. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator on Friday for a big move within the next couple of sessions. We'll find out if that signal works tomorrow. The short term signals for the S&P remain overbought and staying that way. We've got the Fed, an inflation report and plenty of economic data on tap for this week. So there will be lots of excuses for markets to move. Not sure exactly how much longer the S&P can remain overbought and we are looking at the SPY May puts. Options premiums remain high. Gold was off $46 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates rose. The XAU dropped 6 1/2 and GDX lost 1 3/4. Volmue was light. The short term indicators for GDX are oversold but not completely. They've been trending sideways for almost a week. The gold shares appear to be trying to make up their mind where to go next. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower to begin the week. The short term indicators here remain oversold and trending sideways. The daily cnadlestick chart for the VIX looks like it wants to head down. That would be a boost for stocks if it happens. I am still waiting for some kind of clear technical signal before putting on the next trade. Still plenty of time in the May option cycle. Asia was generally higher and Europe slightly lower to begin the trading week. We'll keep watch for the overnight developments.

The Dow was the laggard once again as it fell 79 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ by far was the leader today and that is a plus for the bulls. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 ended the week at new all time highs. No overhead resistance. The short term indicators for the S&P remain in overbought territory. The rally for stocks continues after moving sideways for most of the week. Still at the mercy of the next Iran conflict sound bite but it doesn't seem to mean as much to the market anymore. Technically the S&P is overbought, staying that way and we are not going to fight that right now. Gold was up nine bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose almost 6 points and GDX was up over 2. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up. I'm still not a fan of the gold shares now but we should wait for them to get back to short term overbought before attempting the GDX puts again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators here continue in a sideways pattern. The daily chart here still looks like it wants to go lower and the indicators are not completely oversold. Remaining below the 20 level and that is a positive. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend to try and form a game plan for next week. Stocks are in rally mode but we are soon heading into a period of underperformance on a seasonality basis. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.