Lower today as the Dow dipped 25 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is now barely moving higher. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ losing over two hundred points. The S&P had a gap down at the open and then trended sideways. The short term indicatros for the S&P remain overbought. We've got the Fed tomorrow and no change in rates is expected. We still favor the SPY puts now with the market overbought but that doesn't mean that it can't go higher. Still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold fell $84 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates rose slightly. The XAU fell 16 2/3, while GDX lost 4. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX are almost completely oversold. I'm now looking at the GDX May calls as we missed the put trade here. There is a longer term up trend line for GDX that comes in at 85. That would be the spot to try the calls. If it doesn't hold the gold shares will be in trouble. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and that does not fit with a down market. The short term indicators here remain oversold in a sideways trend. Not sure what's next for the VIX despite the daily chart implying lower VIX values in the near term. As usual more questions than answers in this game. I'll see how the market reacts to the Fed and take it from there. Asia and Europe were down overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

A meandering Monday as stocks drifted sideways to slightly higher. The Dow however fell 62 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up at a slower pace. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at new all time highs again. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator on Friday for a big move within the next couple of sessions. We'll find out if that signal works tomorrow. The short term signals for the S&P remain overbought and staying that way. We've got the Fed, an inflation report and plenty of economic data on tap for this week. So there will be lots of excuses for markets to move. Not sure exactly how much longer the S&P can remain overbought and we are looking at the SPY May puts. Options premiums remain high. Gold was off $46 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates rose. The XAU dropped 6 1/2 and GDX lost 1 3/4. Volmue was light. The short term indicators for GDX are oversold but not completely. They've been trending sideways for almost a week. The gold shares appear to be trying to make up their mind where to go next. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower to begin the week. The short term indicators here remain oversold and trending sideways. The daily cnadlestick chart for the VIX looks like it wants to head down. That would be a boost for stocks if it happens. I am still waiting for some kind of clear technical signal before putting on the next trade. Still plenty of time in the May option cycle. Asia was generally higher and Europe slightly lower to begin the trading week. We'll keep watch for the overnight developments.

The Dow was the laggard once again as it fell 79 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ by far was the leader today and that is a plus for the bulls. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 ended the week at new all time highs. No overhead resistance. The short term indicators for the S&P remain in overbought territory. The rally for stocks continues after moving sideways for most of the week. Still at the mercy of the next Iran conflict sound bite but it doesn't seem to mean as much to the market anymore. Technically the S&P is overbought, staying that way and we are not going to fight that right now. Gold was up nine bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose almost 6 points and GDX was up over 2. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up. I'm still not a fan of the gold shares now but we should wait for them to get back to short term overbought before attempting the GDX puts again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators here continue in a sideways pattern. The daily chart here still looks like it wants to go lower and the indicators are not completely oversold. Remaining below the 20 level and that is a positive. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend to try and form a game plan for next week. Stocks are in rally mode but we are soon heading into a period of underperformance on a seasonality basis. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Volatility was the name of the game today and the Dow finished with a loss of 179 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving higher. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The S&P 500 hit a new intra-day high early on and then fell 100 points. It made its way back to more than cut the losses in half by the close. The short term indicators there are still overbought but may be trying to roll over here. We'll have to see how the week closes. Gold dropped $40 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 11 and GDX shed 2 1/4. Volume was good to the downside for the gold shares again. The short term indicators for GDX are back to heading down. I canceled my open order for the GDX May puts as it is already heading down and the ideal time for purchase has passed. This idea might still work but we are going to have to see some upside first for the gold shares before trying it. For now it appears to be another missed opportunity. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was a bit higher today which fits a down market. It did move above the 20 level today but made its way back below that level by the close. The short term indicators here are still oversold but not completely so and moving sideways. Not sure where the VIX is headed next but the daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go lower. I am now looking at the SPY May puts but the premiums are still high with just over three weeks to go in the May option cycle. We will probably let tomorrow got by and take it from there. Asia was lower and Europe mixed last night. I'll keep an eye on this evenings headlines.

Back to the upside as the Dow climbed 340 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ led the way today and that's a plus. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at new all time highs. There is no overhead resistance. The short term indicators for the S&P are stuck in overbought territory. It appears that we had a two day pause in the rally and it has now resumed. But today the TRAN got killed with a huge move lower and that is something to keep an eye on. Gold was up $40 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates up just a touch. The XAU rose 6 1/2 and GDX was up around 1 1/2. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall and have not reached oversold territory yet. I did place an open order for the GDX May puts overnight and I'm leaving it out there. However if the indicators start to move up I will cancel that order. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today and that fits with the overall higher market. The short term indicators continue to hang around the oversold area. As long as the VIX remains below the 20 level we can conclude that the rally still has legs. News out of Iran doesn't move the markets as much now as it did before. We'll see if that trend continues. Asia finished mixed and Europe was down again overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Sellers took over today as the Dow fell 293 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. It was a one day downside reversal as stocks opened higher and closed lower. Retail sales came in better than expected. Markets are still being held hostage to whatever comes out of the Iran conflict. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still overbought but are beginning to roll over. We will see if there is any follow through selling tomorrow. Gold got whacked as the futures fell $130. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 24 1/4 and GDX shed 6 1/8. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators on GDX are moving down in a hurry. It looks like I've missed the GDX May put trade. It is frustrating but the market doesn't care about our frustrations. The put trade idea still might have some merit but we'll have to see where the rest of the week goes. However after todays price action it looks like this ship has sailed. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today but down from its best levels on the session. The short term indicators here are trying to move up from oversold territory. A move above the 20 level would be a cause for concern for the bulls but that hasn't happened yet. For now it seems that earnings are still taking a back seat to the daily developments out of Iran. We wonder how long this will go on and can only guess when it stops. Tougher than usual trading environment. Asia higher and Europe lower again. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

We had some minor selling to begin the week as the Dow dipped 4 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up. Stocks stayed in negative territory for much of the day but it was mainly a sideways session with small losses booked for most major averages. The short term indicators are still overbought for the S&P 500. Waiting to see if the Iran cease-fire gets extended on Wednesday. Stocks remain at the mercy of the next war sound bite but it doesn't seem to have the same effect as it did earlier. I'm still in the camp of waiting for things to return to some kind of normal before making the next trade. Gold dropped $46 on the futures. The US dollar was a touch lower and interest rates finished a touch higher. The XAU was off 5 1/3, while GDX lost 1 1/8. Volume for GDX was pretty light. The short term indicators here are still overbought but not extremely so. I'm still considering the GDX May puts for the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was higher today but remains short term oversold. It got up to the 20 level during the session but backed off. Not sure exactly what's next for the VIX but I would not be surprised if it simply remains oversold as stocks trend higher in the near term. Plenty of earnings reports out this week. Not much on the economic calendar with the exception of retail sales tomorrow. Asia higher and Europe lower to start the trading week overseas. The market is waiting on the cease-fire deadline for now.