Bouncing around today as we opened with a gap lower and traded sideways for the rest of the session. The Dow fell 84 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 had a small loss. The short term indicators there are still oversold and now heading sideways. We remain at the mercy of the next Iran headline. We'll stick to the sidelines for now. Gold was off four bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 3 3/4 and GDX finished flat. Volume was average. Still short term oversold for GDX. We are looking at the GDX April calls as the next trade but will wait on that for now. There is still a chance that stocks move lower from here and they would take the gold shares with them. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today which fits a down market. The short term indicators here are trying to move up. If they do we'll see lower prices. We are in a tricky trading environment due to the overall geo-political background which includes war. Option premiums remain high because of volatility and the beginning of the next option cycle. So I will try and remain patient for now. Asia and Europe were higher last night with the exception of the DAX. I'll be keeping an eye on things overnight.

Volatility works both ways as the Dow gained 631 points on pretty heavy volume. It was up over a thousand early on. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving lower. Headline risk remains the theme as whatever happens in Iran takes center stage. Tough trading envirionment to be sure. Both the Dow and NASDAQ led the way higher. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to turn up from oversold territory. So there is a chance that stocks turn around and the summation index doesn't make it through the zero line. But there's a chance that is does too as we are getting closer to it every day. I'm staying on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Premiums are high along with uncertainty. Gold lost $161 on the futures. It did finish well up from the lows on the session. The daily candlestick chart here looks like appears to show that a low has been put in. We'll see. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 12 1/2, while GDX was up 3 1/8. Volume was heavy to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to move higher from deeply oversold. Gold down and the gold shares up is a positive sign. I canceled my open order for the GDX April calls as it wasn't close to being able to be filled. I still like this idea and am going to try to put it on at some point in the April option cycle. The short term technicals for gold itself remain extremely oversold. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was a bit lower after being all over the place today. The short term indicators here are beginning to trend sideways. Not exactly sure what to expect here next for the VIX. The market remains hostage to the next revelation on Iran. There is nothing wrong with waiting things out as having no position is still a position. We do like trying the gold share calls at some point in the near future. Asia down and Europe up to start the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Another day of liquidation as the Dow fell 443 points on extremely heavy expiration volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. A last half hour bounce kept things from being worse. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within two days and today satisfies that. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. The S&P 500, which lost 100 points today, is short term oversold and staying there which is never a good sign. The 200 day average did not hold. The next area of support is far away at 6100. As the summation index heads towards the zero line it is possible that things fall apart and the S&P makes it down to that level. But it is not a certainty. Options premiums are already high as we roll into the April option cycle. The puts are still looking like the way to go with regards to the SPY. Gold was off $103. The dollar was up along with interest rates. The XAU fell 13 points, while GDX lost 2 3/4. Volume was good again to the downside. GDX remains short term oversold and staying that way. Support at 82 didn't hold so the next level that we are looking at is 75. I did place an open order for the GDX April calls and I'm leaving it out there. GDX is getting so blown out to the downside it looks like an opportunity for a short term trade. But that doesn't mean that it can't just simply continue lower. We'll be keeping an eye on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped back up today and its short term indicators have turned higher. If the VIX keeps moving up stocks will keep moving down. The market is in an interesting place at the moment. Opportunity is out there but the risks are high. I'll be checking all the charts this weekend to try and figure out what to do next. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of India to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Volatility remains the theme as the Dow fell 203 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. We had a gap down at the open but at least today there was some buying as the market finished up from the lows. Once again the Dow led things lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain oversold. It is trying to hang on to its 200 day mvoing average here but closed just below it. Option expiration Friday tomorrow so things could get a little crazy. Gold got sold hard again today as the futures lost $255. It did come up from the lows though. Interest rates finished mixed but came down from their highs of the session. The US dollar was lower. The XAU dropped 21 1/8, while GDX lost 5 1/8. They both came back from lower levels early on. Volume was very heavy as players head for the exits. GDX is trying to hang in there at the 82 support level. Not sure that it will. The next support is around 75 at the 200 day moving average. The short term indicators for GDX remain oversold with some of them completely blown out. That is one of the reasons I'm now looking at the GDX April calls as the potential next trade. Not that I think a sustained rally is at hand but because some kind of bounce should occur with the current oversold condition. I may place an open order overnight. It is also true that gold and the gold shares may simply continue to drop here. There is risk in every idea and trade. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. Sometimes the VIX precedes the next days price action so we'll see if stocks are higher tomorrow. The short term indicators here are still trending lower. It has been quite a week already. Expiration Friday should be interesting. Both Europe and Asia were down sharply. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Sellers returned as the Dow fell 768 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The inflation data came in hotter than expected. The Fed left rates alone which was expected. The Dow led the way lower which isn't the worst case scenario. The S&P 500 is now testing the low set on Friday and is just about at its 200 day moving average. So if things don't hold up here it could get ugly. The short term indicators on the S&P are oversold and staying there. Not sure what would bring buyers back with the exception of an end to the Iran conflict. But no one knows when that will be. Gold got clobbered with the futures down $163. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 23 3/4 and GDX lost 5 2/3. Volume was heavy to the downside. The short term indicators on GDX are oversold and staying that way. Even though we never got filled trying to buy the GDX March puts here the analysis was still correct. We will get other opportunities down the road. Once again, gold and the gold shares had a parabolic advance. That cannot not last forever. It always ends badly as the excesses have to be driven out. The precious metals complex is in that phase now. It will probably take a while. Rallies can be sold and puts can be purchased on advances. When the Iran war ends gold will most likely move up and that will be the chance to try the puts again. In theory at least. Support for GDX here comes in at the 82 level. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and the daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go higher now. Some of the short term indicators have turned up and have plenty of room to run. This could potentially spell big trouble for stocks as the summation index is heading towards the zero line. The index is still over 1000 points away but it can drop sharply at times. Things will unravel if the summation index makes it through that line. It doesn't happen very often but we have to be aware of the condition the market is in at the moment. Asia up and Europe down overnight. We'll keep watch on the overnight developments.

Today was a repeat of yesterday but on a smaller scale as we had a gap higher at the open only to be followed by sideways price action. The Dow gained 46 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. The NASDAQ was the leader and that's a plus. However we are still just bouncing up from oversold levels for now. With inflation data and the Fed tomorrow my guess would be that we head back down but the market can be full of surprises. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still on the oversold side of things. No SPY option trades for now. Gold was up a couple bucks. The US dollar was a bit lower as were interest rates. The XAU was off 1 2/3, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was light. GDX remains short term oversold. The only way we'd take on a trade here is if there was some kind of bounce tomorrow in GDX for us to try the puts before Friday. I doubt that is going to happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is still above the 20 level. The short term indicators here are trying to move down. The longer term up trend line on the VIX comes in at 20. I'd certainly like to take on a trade here before Fridays option expiration but it doesn't look like it. With only three days left in the March option cycle the risk pretty much speaks for itself. Asia was mixed and Europe higher again. We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

The expected bounce showed up today as the Dow gained 387 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues lower. We did get a signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move with in the next two sessions and today takes care of that. It could have been better though as stocks markets closed off of their highs for the session. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned up but remain oversold. Now we have to figure out if today is the beginning of something sustained to the upside or just another oversold bounce. I certainly do not know for sure. You can still make a case for either way. With only four days left in the March option cycle, it appears that we'll remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options. Inflation data on Wednesday along with the Fed no doubt increases the risk. Plus the inevitable Iran war headlines make for a tougher than usual trading environment. Gold dropped forty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 3 7/8 and GDX added a point. Volume was average. Gold lower and the gold shares higher is something that we haven't seen in a while. GDX is still short term oversold. I did want to own some GDX March puts ahead of the data and Fed on Wednesday but it looks like that trade isn't going to be worth the risk. Unless the war ends tonight and we see a big rise in gold and the gold shares tomorrow we'll have to remain on the sidelines here too. Perhaps a trading opportunity will present itself this week but it would have to be very short term in nature. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term indicators that we follow on the VIX are still hanging around the mid-range level. Still above the 20 level here. The shorter term up trend line here has been broken. We are going to have to see how this week plays out going forward and take it from there. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.