The inflation data came in where expected but it was the earnings reports that drove the market today as the Dow rose 153 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving sideways. We had a gap up at the open and things moved higher from there. The NASDAQ was by far the leader today as it was up over 300 points. It appears that the recent deline has ended but the S&P 500 is still below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators for the S&P are now mid-range. It is just below the down trend line that is now in place on the daily chart. Another day like today will get us through. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped slightly. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was average. I still am in favor of the GDX May calls if we see some pullback next week. The short term indicators here are north of mid-range. GDX is overbought on a longer term basis though. However it seems as though money continues to find a home in the gold shares and we cannot ignore that. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. Still above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Getting below those levels would be a plus for the bulls and imply higher stock prices going forward. Three weeks to go in the May option cycle. We've got the end of the month next week along with a Fed meeting and the jobs report. Earnings are ongoing as well. So there will be plenty of excuses for the markets to move. We'll be going over all the charts as usual to try and come up with some sort of game plan. Europe and Asia finished higher with the exception of India. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Volatility made a comeback today as the Dow fell 375 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. We had a huge gap down at the open as it looked as though things were going to fall apart. But they didn't. After the first half hour the market climbed higher the rest of the day to cut the losses. The Dow was the under performer on the session. GDP came in light and META disappointed on its earnings report. The S&P 500 finished well off of its lows for the day. The short term indicators look like they are beginning to stall. But the fact that it held up today I think bodes well going forward for the bulls. We'll see what happens with the inflation news tomorrow. Gold was up $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates continued to rise. The gold shares had a stellar day as the XAU climbed 4 1/8 while GDX jumped over 1 1/8. Volume was very heavy to the upside. The gold indices were helped by NEM rising 12% on its earnings numbers. The short term indicators for GDX are now moving higher. I canceled my open order for the GDX May calls as I've missed this move higher. I might decide to chase things here as money continues to pour into the gold shares. Gone and already forgotten was the seventy dollar drop in gold on Monday. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as my order for the GDX May calls this week wasn't filled. Perhaps I just did not place it properly but there is plenty of time left in the May option cycle. Al least the idea is working as we cannot deny the interest in gold the past couple of months. The VIX was down today which doesn't fit with a down market. Getting to short term oversold on the technical indicators. Still above the 50 and 200 moving averages on the VIX. Not sure what to expect next here. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower in last nights trade. We'll check the market reaction to the inflation data tomorrow.

Back to hanging around again as the Dow lost 42 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to turn around. Not much movement in the major averages with the exception of the TRAN which had a big drop. The S&P 500 remains below its 50 day moving average but the short term indicators have turned back up. GDP out tomorrow and that may be a market mover. More so the inflation data out on Friday. Remaining patient for now with regards to the SPY May options. Gold fell $10 on the futures. The US dollar was up slightly along with interest rates. Both the XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume. My open order for the GDX May calls remains out there. The gold shares are holding up for now despite the drop in gold itself. That should be a plus going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit lower today. Not sure what's next here for the VIX. Volatility has come down from recent levels as it seems like the market is simply waiting for Fridays inflation numbers. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Continuing higher as the Dow rose 263 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. Once again the NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. Is the recent decline over? Probably. We can't rule out a retest of the lows and that would tell the story. But some indicators reached extremes last week. Perhaps the major selling is over. The S&P 500 is still below its 50 day moving average but the short term indicators have turned back up. It is still short term oversold but not as much as before. Earnings have a chance to keep things afloat. But we'll have to wait and see how the rest of this week plays out. Gold lost $9 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates had a minor dip. The XAU added over 1 3/4, while GDX gained 1/2. The gold shares up with gold itself down is a plus for the gold bulls. Volume was a bit above average for the gold shares. My open order for the GDX May calls wasn't filled and I'm leaving it out there. My hope is that GDX trends sideways to down in the near term and the order gets filled. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are oversold but not extremely so. There is plenty of time left in the May option cycle that we will be patient with this idea for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators there moved lower as well. The VIX remains above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how things go on Wednesday.

Finally got a bounce today as the Dow was up 253 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is slowing its descent. The NASDAQ led the way higher but stock indices did finish well off of the best levels on the day. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold but the indicators here have turned up for now. Sometimes the Monday after option expiration moves in the opposite direction of Fridays activity. That could be what occurred today. We'll know more as the week goes on. Plenty of big tech earnings this week. We'll also get a look at 1st quarter GDP along with inflation data later in the week. Option premiums are expensive so we'll remain on the sidelines for now with respect to the SPY. Gold plunged today as the futures fell seventy bucks. The US dollar finished flat as did interest rates. The XAU lost 5 points, while GDX shed 1 1/2. Volume was heavy to the downside. The gold shares had a gap lower to start the day and never recoverd. The up trend line that began in March for GDX was broken. The short term indicators here are moving lower but not yet oversold. That said, I did place an open order for the GDX May calls and I'm leaving it out there. It would not be a surprise for GDX to head back to the down trend line that it broke on the weekly chart a few weeks ago. That comes in at around a point or so from todays close. GDX would have to drop down there for my option order to be filled. That is the next trade on our radar, subject to change as conditions change of course. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an up market. The short term indicators on the VIX are moving lower and are about mid-range. The VIX looks like it wants to continue down on the daily chart which would benefit stocks. But I haven't had a good feel for the VIX lately. Plus stocks did not exactly finish on a robust note today. We'll see. Europe and Asia were up to start the trading week. I'll keep an eye out on the overnight developments.

The overall market continued lower but the Dow managed a gain of 220 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading down. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow. The NASDAQ led the way down again and was off over 300 points. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and is at indicator extremes. Buyers are nowhere to be found. Fears about geo-political conflict have taken over the markets. Markets that don't bounce after reaching oversold can be dangerous. Although the Dow saw some upside the smaller stocks did not and that's a problem going forward. We are on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was up $4 on the futures after being much higher during the session. The US dollar finished flat as did most interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on about average volume. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are mid-range and the short term up trend line remains intact. I still like the idea of the GDX calls going forward but will try and wait for a signal before trying them again. GDX is overbought on both a short and medium term basis. However in strong uptrends these conditions can last for a while. If we see some weakness next week perhaps we'll try the calls here again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but well off its highest levels on the session that took it above the important 20 level. The short term indicators here remain overbought but not have turned lower. Not sure what's next for the VIX. An interesting week as the market kept dropping and we never did see any kind of sustained bounce for stocks. But the market knows things that we do not. Moving into the May option cycle next week. We'll be checking the charts and keeping an eye on the news headlines as the weekend goes by. Europe finished mixed and Asia was lower with the exception of India to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another day of hanging around as the Dow rose 22 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even again. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ led the way lower again as well. Still waiting for the long overdue bounce. The S&P 500 finished in the red remains short term oversold. Could the bounce come tomorrow? Perhaps. I did think about getting the SPY April calls near the close but with only Friday to go in the April option cycle I didn't do it. I could certainly make a technical case for giving it a shot. But the short term trades are not my best efforts and we'll roll into the May option cycle with regards to the SPY. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares finished off of their best levels on the day. I sold my GDX April calls for a gain of 50% and it should have been twice that. The exit this morning was horrible as I did not execute it the way I had planned. This trade had a mediocre entry and a terrible exit. I really need to get better at the short term stuff or simply avoid it. I think one of the reasons I looked at the SPY April calls today was because of the lousy end to this trade. That could be a recipe for disastor because win or lose you have to move on. Where you get in and where you get out will determine success or failure in this game. You certainly cannot let one trade affect the next. We know these things yet the struggle persists. It is the nature of the game. Mentally I'm frustrated from my effort and results of the GDX call trade. But it doesn't matter now. The up trend line for GDX on the daily chart reamins intact for now. The VIX was lower again today which doesn't fit with the overall market weakness. Not sure what to make of it. Asia and Europe finished higher with the exception of India. We'll close out the trading week on expiration Friday tomorrow.