Bouncing back in a big way today as the Dow gained 614 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is heading sideways. The rally was led by the NASDAQ which is a plus for the bulls. Inflation data came in where expected. There was a gap higher at the open and after bouncing around stocks took off to the upside. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are now moving up. The S&P is trying not to roll over now as it trades in a channel defined by the levels of 7600 and 7250. Todays breadth wasn't all that impressive considering the move higher for stocks. I'm still in the camp for caution as the market will have to prove that it wants to go higher for me. Gold was up $72 on the futures. The US dollar got crushed yet interest rates finished a bit higher. The XAU was up 12 3/4 and GDX climbed over 3 points. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are back to moving up with some almost overbought. At this point it appears that I've missed the GDX August call trade but we'll see. I'm not going to chase it here but that may not be the right strategy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a big drop which fits with a strong upside day. The short term indicators here are heading down with conviction. After a one day breach of the 20 level the VIX is now comfortably below there. It looks like the VIX wants to continue to decline but my views of this indicator haven't been correct lately. Europe and Asia were mostly higher overnight. We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

Volatility is now the name of the game as the Dow plunged 1153 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to turn back down. The day started with a steady decline but turned around after the Fed announcement to move higher for the session. But the final hour found relentless selling as buyers disappeared. The Dow led the way down with the NASDAQ falling 1 3/4% and the S&P 500 off 1 1/2% by the close. The short term indicators for the S&P turned lower and they were already oversold. That is not a good sign. Perhaps the after the bell tech earnings can hold things together for the bulls. The daily chart for the S&P looks like it is breaking down though. Maybe tomorrows inflation data can provide a spark of hope for the bulls. But the charts say otherwise as it looks like this could be a repeat of the rollover that we saw in March. Stay tuned. Gold was up $11 on the futures but was higher during the session. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU dipped 2 1/2 and GDX lost 2/3. Volume was above average. The short term indicators on GDX are moving lower. I am going to try and wait for GDX to reach oversold on the daily chart before trying the calls there again. It might take a few days or more if we do see more selling going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and closed above the 20 level. The short term indicators here have turned back up and some are almost overbought. With the VIX above 20, expect volatility to continue. What it means for the SPY trades is that we'll be looking for entry points to try the August puts. Rallies are to be treated as suspect. Trading durations should be shortened up. There will be opportunities so it will be the matter of whether you can take advantage of them or not. Markets remain at the mercy of the US/Iran conflict. Still plenty of time in the August option cycle. Europe was mixed and Asia higher with the exception of Japan overnight. We'll keep an eye on the evenings reports.

Hanging around again as the overall picture is still mixed but the Dow gained 537 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is beginning to stall. Once again the NASDAQ posted a small loss. The S&P 500 recorded a small gain. The short term indicators for the S&P are turning up with plenty of room to go. The Fed should get things going one way or the other tomorrow. Some big tech earnings out as well but after the close. We will remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold dropped $53 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU lost around 6 3/4, while GDX shed 1 1/2. Volume is still light here. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are turning lower with others heading sideways. Waiting for the next signal before trading this space again. We are still looking at the calls though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today. The short term indicators here are trying to turn back down. Not exactly sure where the VIX goes from here but the daily candlestick chart appears to want to head lower. I haven't had a good feel for the VIX lately. Just waiting on the Fed at this point. Asia was generally lower as Japan got whacked. Europe finished to the upside. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another day of indecision but the Dow managed a gain of 262 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ posted a small loss and the S&P 500 finished basically unchanged. We opened with a huge gap higher but then sold off hard all the way back into negative territory. No summer doldrums here. The rest of the day was spent mostly going sideways in negative territory until the final hour. I'm not sure what's going on here but the S&P remains oversold on the short term indicators. We've got the Fed on Wednesday and inflation data on Thursday to deal with. End of the month on Friday. Option premiums remain elevated but I am leaning towards the SPY August puts at some point. Gold was up $15 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates a bit lower. The XAU was up 1 1/2 and GDX rose 1/2. Volume was pretty light. The short term indicators for GDX are still moving up with room to go. I'm still considering the GDX August calls but not in a hurry to purchase them as the light volume for the gold shares isn't exactly a bullish sign. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly to begin the week. The short term indicators here are moving sideways in mainly overbought territory. The daily candlestick chart here looks inconclusive. We will remain patient and on the sidelines for now. Asia and Europe were higher to start off the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A mixed bag on a summer Friday as the Dow gained 235 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ lost over 150 points, while the S&P 500 had a very slight rise. As long as the NASDAQ continues to lead the way lower I don't see any sustainable rallies in the near future for the overall market. I could be wrong but probably not this time around. Some of the short term indicators on the S&P are beginning to stall and others are moving lower. Not yet completely short term oversold here. The market remains in headline risk mode and at the mercy of the US/Iran conflict. Gold was up five bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates had a small bounce up. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are stalling at the mid-range level. I still like the idea of the GDX calls going forward. However the lack of volume in this space still shows that there isn't much trading interest here at the moment. Summertime might have something to do with that along with a negative fundamental picture right now for the precious metals. It could be that sideways price action is the most we can expect from this group for now. I'll take another look at things over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today. The short term indicators here are hanging around and I'm not sure what to expect from this indicator next. I'll be checking out the charts over the weekend as usual. We've got a Fed meeting next week along with some inflation data so things should get interesting. Asia lower and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

To the downside with some conviction as the Dow fell 507 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now heading lower. A late bounce in the last ten minutes prevented things from being worse. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down and that is not a good sign. Trading began with a huge gap lower and never recovered. The S&P 500 lost ninety points. Most of the short term indicators there are heading south and not yet completely oversold. We can forget about new all time highs on the S&P for now. Gold dropped a hundred bucks on the futures today. The US dollar was up and interest rates continue to climb higher. The XAU lost 6 3/4, while GDX shed 1 2/3. Volume was light to the downside. Considering the drop in gold itself the gold shares held up rather well. That hasn't been the case lately and that shift has me thinking that the gold share calls might be the proper trade going forward. A few of the short term indicators on GDX are beginning to stall. I would like to see GDX get short term oversold again during the August option cycle but that may not happen. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up today and that fits todays price action. The short term indicators here have turned back up. Yesterday the daily chart for the VIX looked like it wanted to go lower. After today I'm not sure what to think. Still below the 20 level though. With the summation index now heading down we will look at the SPY August puts at some point. Premiums remain high since there are over four weeks left in the August option cycle. A light volume drift higher from here would be the ideal scenario. Markets rarely cooperate. Still at the mercy of the US/Iran conflict. Europe was down and Asia up with the exception of India overnight. We'll close out the trading week on Friday.

Pretty much a sideways summer session as the Dow dipped 6 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index remains in a channel. The NASDAQ led the way lower which is not a plus. Waiting on after the bell earnings as there isn't much to trade off of this week. The S&P 500 posted a small loss. The short term indicators there have begun to stall at the mid-range level. No clear signal one way or the other on the S&P so I will remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold continued higher as the futures gained $63. The US dollar was a touch lower and interest rates continued to climb. The XAU was up 9 3/4 and GDX added 2 1/2. Volume was average here. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up. It appears that I've missed this move higher for the gold shares but we'll have to see where it goes from here. I still like the idea of the GDX calls moving forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was bit lower today. Its short term indicators are stalling. The daily candlestick chart here still looks like it wants to go lower. Trying to remain patient here as we look for the next trade. The markets are still in headline risk mode. We will wait for the next good technical signal and go from there. Not sure how long that will take. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights events.