Lower to begin options expiration week as the US/Iran conflict has once again taken center stage. The Dow lost 138 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. Markets are now held hostage by headline risk as whatever cease-fire agreement that there was isn't working. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted decent losses with the NASDAQ leading the way. Inflation data out tomorrow and we expect it to show a decline. However if some war news breaks out overnight it may not matter. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P have turned lower and it remains in short term overbought territory. The new all time highs on the S&P 500 that I am looking for won't happen if we continue down from here. Gold got clobbered to start the week as the futures fell over a hundred bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped around 7 1/2, while GDX lost 2 1/8. Volume was a bit below average. The short term indicators for GDX rolled back over in oversold territory. It is trying to hold on to the 73 level. My GDX July calls are dead. GDX has simply continued to stay oversold without anything more than a minor bounce. I thought about getting some more calls today at a lower strike price ahead of the inflation data due out but did not. The US/Iran conflict flare up has changed the trading environment. However my management of the trade was wrong as it did show a profit that I did not take early on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped up today which fits a down market. The short term indicators here have turned up. If the VIX continues to rise it will spell more trouble for stocks. The new Fed chairman will be speaking to Congress in the morning for the next two days. That could influence where stocks are going as well. So it should be an interesting week despite the light volume that we've seen lately. Asia was mixed and Europe barely higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Today was a summertime Friday as the Dow gained 149 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. We saw some brief volatility early on and then the market drifted higher for the rest of the day. The S&P 500 led things up today and the NASDAQ posted a small gain as well. However the volume this week has been light as many players are out. Things should perhaps pick up next week with option expiration and inflation data on tap. But you can also make a case that the summer doldrums are starting to kick in. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought and others are on their way there. I still believe that we'll be setting new all time highs for the S&P at some point next week. Gold dropped $25 on the futures. The US dollar finished slightly higher as did interest rates. The XAU slipped 1 1/4 and GDX shed 1/4. Volume here was extremely light as there is no interest in the gold shares at the moment. That should change next week. The short term indicators for GDX are trying once again to turn up from the oversold level. My GDX July calls are solid losers but at this point I'm committed to holding them until the inflation data starts to come out on Tuesday. You really don't want to be stuck in a losing trade over the weekend but that is the position that I find myself in. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX closed at a fresh new low as the short term indicators head sideways in oversold territory. It is looking like the rally in stocks can continue according to the VIX. I'll be looking over the charts this weekend but I do not anticipate any SPY option trades next week right now. The chance to try the calls there has passed the ideal entry point. I'll wait and see what happens with the gold shares as we move forward. Asia was higher and Europe mixed to close the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 139 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. Good gains for both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 with the NASDAQ leading the way. The market remains at risk from the next headline. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back up but remain in overbought territory. My thinking is that the S&P will be on its way to new all time highs next week on benign inflation data. Probably too late for the July SPY calls as the lows yesterday would have been the ideal purchase time. But we'll see what happens between now and Tuesday of next week. Gold bounced back $49 on the futures. The US dollar finished about unchanged and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU gained 10 1/2, while GDX added 2 1/8. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up again from oversold territory. My GDX July calls remain solid losers. We'll see how GDX finishes the week tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an upside market. The short term indicators here have turned back lower in oversold territory. The VIX can remain oversold during rallies so we'll have to wait and see where stocks go from here. The light volume today is not a positive for the bulls. Asia and Europe were generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

A mixed bag today but the Dow lost 576 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. Middle East tensions are back in the picture. The Dow led they way lower but the NASDAQ did post a small gain on the session. The S&P 500 had a small loss after being down hard early in the morning. The short term indicators there are still tracking sideways. Not sure what to expect next here as we are back in a headline risk environment. The technical picture isn't clear but the S&P did hold at its 50 day moving average. Gold dropped $65 on the futures. The US dollar finished about unchanged and interest rates went up. The XAU fell 11 1/4, while GDX shed 2 1/4. Volume was above average to the downside. GDX closed below its support at 73. The short term indicators there are trending lower in oversold territory. My GDX July calls are all but dead in the water now. I did not use a stop loss order on this trade and it looks like that was a mistake. Once again the management of the trade was poorly executed. I will still hold on to it for now but it is in the cut the loss mode. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but finished well off of the best levels for the session. The short term indicators here are starting to rise. If that continues we'll see lower stock prices going forward. Europe and Asia were lower overnight with the exception of Hong Kong. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Sellers had the upper hand today as the Dow fell 130 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues to move forward. Yesterday the NASDAQ led the way up and today it led the way down. This week could end up going nowhere as there isn't much economic data to trade off of or earnings reports to speak of. I'm not saying it will be the summer doldrums but I believe that next week will provide more movement. I would not be surprised if we see a negative bias for the rest of the week as well. I could be wrong. The short term indicators for the S&P are stalling. Gold fell forty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was up and so were interest rates. The XAU fell 10 3/4 and GDX lost around 3. Volume was about average. Some of the short term indicators for GDX have turned back down. Another day like today would take us to fresh lows there. It appears that yesterday was the day to exit our GDX July call trade as it is back to being a loser. A week and a half left on this trade. It does not look as promising as it once did but we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today which fits a down market. The short term indicators here have started to turn up from oversold territory. The most the bulls can hope for here is that the VIX trends sideways. Asia and Europe were down overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Stocks moved higher coming back after a long holiday weekend as the Dow gained 155 points on good volume to a new high. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending higher. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 was up over fifty points and made it through the short term down trend line. The short term indicators here are trending up. Not yet short term overbought on the S&P. Gold was up $48 on the futures. The US dollar finished unchanged and interest rates dipped slightly. The XAU was off 1 1/3, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume was light. Gold itself up and the gold shares not moving is not a good sign as it shows no interest. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to move sideways. The gold shares had a big gap higher at the open and then sold off before moving sideways for the rest of the session. Not a promising picture. The GDX July calls that I own are still showing a profit but it is possible that early today was the time to sell them. My thinking here though is to hold this trade until sometime next week. The down trend line on the daily GDX chart comes in at 84 which is where I think it will get back to. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term indicators here are now very oversold. They can stay that way during rallies but some near term selling would not be unexpected. That would not bode well for holding onto the GDX calls that we own but if it is just a pause the trade could probably handle that. We'll see. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed to begin the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

It was another back and forth session for the overall market but the Dow plowed ahead with a gain of 594 points on heavy volume to a new all time high. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues to trend higher. The jobs report came in weaker than expected and stocks took off to the upside early. As quick as they went up things turned around and were quick to go back down. A final half hour rally saved the S&P 500 but not the NASDAQ as it dropped over 200 points. The S&P finished basically unchanged. It is still hanging around the near term down trend line that it hasn't been able to break through. The short term indicators for the S&P are trending sideways. So the jury is still out with regards to which way things will go here. Gold was up over fifty bucks today. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU climbed 11 3/4, while GDX was up 3 1/3. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to move north. Our GDX July calls are now showing a profit. The management of the trade from here will be the key to the trade as it always is. A continued rise in GDX from here would be welcome but we know that markets go where they want. There is still a down trend line in effect here however it is several points away. We'll have an extra day over the weekend to try and decide the proper course of action from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators here remain oversold and are starting to trend sideways. Not sure where it is going next. The Dow leading the way isn't the most bullish scenario. The lagging NASDAQ isn't a plus as well. I'll go over the charts this weekend and take it from there. Not a lot of economic data due out next week. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. It's Thursday afternoon and time for a rest. Enjoy the 4th of July.