A one day downside reversal today as stocks opened higher and closed lower. The Dow lost 119 points today on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ is leading the way down and that's negative. We are expecting some kind of bounce here due to the fact that one of our indicators is in an extreme oversold spot. But like we said yesterday, who wants to own stocks going into the weekend? The S&P 500 posted a modest loss and its short term indicators are oversold. Approaching the 200 day moving average on the S&P daily chart at 6600. Perhaps we'll see a bounce there. Unless we see some type of a cease-fire for the war in Iran stocks will continue to be sold. One week left in the March option cycle. Taking on any trade next week will be fraught with risk. Gold dropped over 100 bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU fell almost 22 points, while GDX shed 5 7/8. Volume was good to the downside. GDX is now short term oversold. If we see some kind of bounce here next week, I may try the GDX March puts again for a very short term trade. My thinking is that gold is still unwinding the parabolic rise that it had and that takes time. However since the gold shares are short term oversold already, chasing the puts now is not the most solid plan. The longer term up trend line for GDX comes in at 85, with the 200 day moving average at 75. Not sure it will make it back to either of those levels here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only down slightly today and the short term indicators are starting to trend sideways despite todays decline for stocks. Not sure what's going on there. Some of the VIX indicators are mid-range which means it could go either way. Some of the weekly indicators for the S&P 500 are not yet oversold so I would expect some more downside in the days to come. However the McClellan oscillator readings are very negative right now and that's a condition that usually doesn't last that long. I'd be surprised if we didn't see some type of bounce on Monday or Tuesday of expiration week. I'll be checking the charts as usual this weekend. Asia and Europe were lower as buyers have stepped away around the world. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Heading down as the Dow fell 739 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. Buyers were nowhere to be found today as we again had a gap lower at the open. This time the selling simply continued thoughout the day and we practially closed at the low for the session. The NASDAQ was the leader and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 lost over 100 points. The short term indicators here are moving down and are not yet oversold. Economic data out tomorrow including inflation numbers but it seems all that will take a back seat to whatever is happening with the war in Iran. Any positive news there will send stocks into a sharp rally but we don't know when that will occur. For now the war is a negative for the market and that fact makes you wonder who would want to hold stocks over the weekend? It now appears that the bounce on Monday or follow through on Tuesday was the opportunity to purchase some SPY puts. Gold was off $82 on the futures. The US dollar was up again along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 9 1/2 and GDX lost 2. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are drifting lower and are not yet completely oversold. I canceled my open order for the GDX March puts. I might move to a lower strike price but will have to see some upside first to take on this trade. I also do not want to hold anything over the weekend due to the volatility and headline risk. I still like this idea at some point ahead of the Fed but will most likely now wait until next week to attempt it. However you do not want to own any puts at the hint of a cease-fire in Iran. The trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits a down market. The short term indicators here are beginning to turn back up. There is now a short term up trend line in place on the VIX daily chart. Volatility is the rule for now. We are getting very close to a bounce point on one of the indicators we follow on the overall market and I suspect that we will see this happen relatively soon. Not sure that it will last though. It is another reason to be very careful trying the puts here. Europe and Asia were lower as players continue to head for the exits. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Pretty much a sideways affair today except for the Dow which lost 289 points. Volume was heavy and the advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ posted a slight gain. The inflation data came in where expected. The S&P 500 had a small loss. Its short term indicators continue to hover in the mid-range area. More inflation data on Friday. Technically we still could go either way from here. Plus we remain hostage to the headlines from the war in Iran. We'll stay on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options until we get a decent signal. Gold was down $53. Both the US dollar and interest rates finished higher. The XAU lost 9 points and GDX fell a couple of points. Volume was slightly below average. The short term indicators for GDX are now trending sideways on the oversold side of the ledger. My order for the GDX March puts remains out there. However as the days go by the appeal of making a trade diminishes because the risk increases. That said I do still like this idea ahead of the Fed. We'll see. mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly down today. The short term indicators here are trending lower. The VIX does remain above 20 though, so volatlity is still in the picture. Not sure what to expect for the markets on Thursday as it could be a waiting game on Fridays data. Not sure what kind of surprise we can get out of Iran at this point but you never know. Asia was mixed and Europe down overnight. I'll keep an eye on this evenings developments.

Back and forth today but when it was all said and done the Dow lost 34 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues lower. We did have a nice gain at some point during the day but could not hold on. The NASDAQ is the relative outperformer right now and that is a step in the right direction for the bulls. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next two trading sessions. So we'll see what happens tomorrow. Inflation data on tap and of course the next headline out of the Iran war. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are hanging around mid-range. Anything could happen as this point which isn't the best trading background for us. We'll stay on the sodelines with regards to the SPY options until we see fit. Gold was up a hundrde bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU rose 6 1/3 and GDX was up 1 1/8. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to bounce from oversold. My open order for the GDX March puts remains out there. The risk for this trade increases with each passing day as time begins to run out for the March option cycle. I still like the idea though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today. Its short term indicators are beginning to stall. Still above the 20 level and as long as that is the case volatility will remain. Not sure what's next here. I still think it's wise to keep positions small and time frames shorter than usual in this type of trading environment. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Another wild day on Wall street as steep losses turned back into gains by the close. The Dow rose 239 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving down. Another huge gap lower to begin the day but the rest of the session was a recovery sparked in the final hour on word that the war with Iran could soon be over. There were one day upside reversals all around and a negative reversal for oil. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that is a positive. The S&P had a decent gain and finished well off of the lows on the session. Is this the big upside day out of nowhere that we were looking for in order to try the SPY March puts? That is the question and I don't really have an answer. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P have now turned up. I'm on the side of caution for now with regards to trading the SPY options because the trading environment at the moment is so volatile. The drop with todays low has only been 5% off of the all time high for the S&P. However it seems like it has been more than that. Gold was off a dozen on the futures and came up well from its lows. The US dollar was a bit lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained around 4 1/2, while GDX added a point or so. Volume was a bit above average. The gold shares also saw one day upside reversals. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to turn around. The up trend line from last November on the GDX daily chart has still contained the recent decline That said, my open order for the GDX March puts remains out there. The plan is to purchase them at some point ahead of the Fed next week and wait for that meeting. A light volume rise from here would be ideal. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX zoomed up to 35 this morning only to fall all the way back to 25 by the days close. It appears to have put in a top. Some of the short term indicators have turned back down. The VIX is pointing to the probability that the decline in stocks is over. We'll see. Asia had steep losses and Europe was lower to begin the trading week. We'll see what tonights headlines have to say.

Lower today to end the week as the Dow fell 453 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The jobs report was much weaker than expected and oil prices surged. That led to another huge gap lower at the open and the market tried to recover but could not. Once again the NASDAQ led things south. The S&P 500 had a steep loss and finally closed below the support of 6800. The trend now is down. The short term indicators here have turned lower with room to go before hitting oversold. Lower prices are now expected. Perhaps we'll see a big one day rally in order to try the SPY puts but that isn't the best trading strategy. Gold was up $83 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was off 2 1/4 and GDX shed 1/3. Volume was a bit above average. Gold up and the gold shares down is still the near term picture. The gold shares are following the overall market. GDX closed right on the up trend line that began in November as the 50 day moving average holds for now. I did leave my open order for the GDX March puts out there but will reconsider this idea over the weekend. I'm beginning to hear more talk now of gold falling in the media and we usually like to be contrary to what is being widely reported. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX jumped today and closed at 29 and change. The short term indicators here took off as well and some are now in overbought territory. In my view the decline that we've seen so far has been pretty orderly. The would change if the VIX continues to spike. There will be much work to do with the charts over the next two days to find a path forward. Not to mention being at the risk of the next major headline. I'll do what I can to try and figure things out. Asia was higher with the exception of India and Europe lower to finish out the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Selling resumed today as the Dow fell 784 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The Dow by far led the way lower today and that's not the worst scenario. The S&P 500 once again traded below the 6800 level only to make it back and close above it. The short term indicators for the S&P are hanging around the mid-range level. It appears as though the S&P wants to put in some kind of a bottom here as it keeps coming back to close above 6800. But it is a volatile, event driven environment we find ourselves in. Things still could go either way for the S&P. We don't have any plans for the SPY March options right now but that could change. Premiums remain high but there is plenty of time left in the March option cycle. Gold dropped $45 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 17 3/4, while GDX lost 4 1/8. Volume was good. The short term indicators for GDX are back to pointing down and are not yet oversold. GDX did manage to come back and close above the up trend line at 101. It also bounced off of its 50 day moving average. Regardless, we are still bearish on gold and the gold shares here. Hoping for some kind of light volume levitation in the coming days to purchase the GDX March puts again. My open order for them remains out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits a down market. The short term indicators on the VIX are moving back up. Still above the 20 level which says volatility will remain. The jobs report is out tomorrow and unless it has some big surprise I doubt it will make much difference given the current market conditions. Tougher than usual trading but there are opportunities for those that can find them. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the volatile week tomorrow.