After some early back and forth the market decided to go higher as the Dow gained 478 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues lower. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted gains on the day but the Dow was by far the leader. Once again we are at the point where if the market was going to go lower it would have by now. Therefore I've got to believe that things are going higher from here. For whatever reason, this time when the summation index crossed the zero line stocks didn't collapse. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are in overbought territory but not at extremes. I am back to thinking that new all time highs in that index will be hit at some point next week. Gold was up $29 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 2 3/8, while GDX added about 1/2. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are oversold and it continues to hold above its 200 day moving average. I am thinking that perhaps this is the time to try the GDX October calls but I'll look things over again this weekend. The overall US dollar and interest rate environment does not favor gold at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and that fits with a positive day for stocks. The short term indicators here are back to heading lower. We'll get inflation data on Wednesday followed by the jobs report on Friday next week. The month ends on Wednesday as well. So there will be excuses to move the markets. I'll be going over all the charts this weekend to try and come up with some type of game plan for next week. Europe was mixed and Asia higher with China closed to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

A little volatility today but the market mostly just hung around as the Dow fell 161 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 ended the day flat. We had a small gap lower at the open followed by a jump at noon. Otherwise it was mostly a sideways affair. I'm not exactly sure what the next catalyst will be. The short term indicators on the S&P have started to move sideways. Gold was off $9 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU dipped around 6 points, while GDX shed 1 1/4. Volume was average. GDX bounced off of its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators there are still heading lower. I am still considering the GDX October calls at some point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but down from the best levels on the session. The short term indicators here are trending higher but with no conviction. Not sure exactly what's next for the VIX. The US/China get together hasn't had any surprises yet. The summation index has now crossed the zero line and we haven't seen stocks fall apart. That isn't the normal course of action. Not sure what it means but would still be careful about getting too interested in the long side until the summation index starts moving up. The market breadth is still negative most every session. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Japan. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Sellers took over on Wednesday as the Dow fell 352 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. I had thought that it would turn around here at the zero line but that isn't happening. Caution is advised. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is a negative. Things didn't exactly fall apart but that possibility now looms. Some of the short term indicators on the S&P 500 have turned down and its daily candlestick chart now has a bearish formation on it. Not exactly sure what happens next here so I'll remain on the sidelines for now. Gold lost $54 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The XAU fell 16 2/3, while GDX lost 4 1/4. Volume was good to the downside. Yesterday I was concerned about missing the next leg higher in the gold shares. Today, not so much. I considered chasing the gold shares higher yesterday but thankfully did not. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back down and are not yet oversold. GDX is already back below the down trend line that it broke yesterday. Back on the sidelines with regards to the GDX options for now as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with a down market. The short term indicators here are turning up. We'll see if there is any follow through higher tomorrow. China and the US get together for a meeting of their leaders tomorrow. What comes out of that might get the markets going one way or the other. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Today was a mixed bag with the Dow lower and the NASDAQ higher. The most watched index fell 185 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still trending lower at the zero line but appears to be trying to turn around. The NASDAQ was up today and the S&P 500 basically unchanged. Waiting on the next catalyst to get things moving again, perhaps the Thursday meeting between the US and China. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P are overbought and others are moving sideways. I'm in the camp that we will hit a new all time high on the S&P in the near future. But I could be wrong. The breadth hasn't been all that good lately, however you cannot argue with price. Option premiums remain high. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished slightly higher and interest rates ticked lower. The XAU gained almost 14 points and GDX was up 3 1/3. Volume was average. Looks like that we missed out on the GDX calls here again. GDX has broken above its short term down trend line today. The short term indicators here are moving higher with plenty of room to go. Perhaps this is a move that should be chased. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are moving down in oversold territory. During rallies the VIX can stay oversold longer than usual. We'll see if that is the case this time around. Right now I suspect that it is. Europe finished pretty flat and Asia was higher with the exception of India last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Moving to the upside to begin the week as the Dow rose 366 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is beginning to slow its downward movement as we are at the zero line. My guess is that it will be successful and turn around barring any unforseen catastrophe. Stock markets opened with a gap higher and it was off to the races from there. The NASDAQ led the way higher by finishing up over 2%. It finally hit a new all time high. The S&P 500 was up over a hundred points. The short term indicators there are moving up and are not yet completely overbought. Buyers have returned and it appears that sellers have lost control. Gold dipped $41 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates lower. The XAU dropped 4 3/4, while GDX lost over a point. Volume was light. Some of the short term indicators on GDX are heading lower. Would like to see GDX get back to completely oversold before trying the October calls there. Markets rarely cooperate. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was flat today which isn't exactly what you want to see with such a strong market. In oversold territory for the short term indicators on the VIX but there is some room to go lower. Not a lot of economic data out this week. A US/China meeting on Thursday will be the most watched factor for the next few days. It appears that the selling has concluded and the S&P 500 should follow the NASDAQ to new all time highs at some point this week. The Dow on the other hand is pretty far from that. Option premiums are high so we will wait and see on the next trade for now. Asia and Europe were up as money is finding a home in stocks now around the globe. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We opened up with a gap higher and spent the rest of the day in a sideways channel. However the Dow fell 95 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted light gains with the NASDAQ leading the way. The short term indicators for the S&P are at mid-range with some beginning to stall. Todays breadth was not good but I still think that the market goes higher from here. But getting this close to the zero line in the summation index could really spell trouble so we'll remain on the sidelines for now. Gold was off $16 on the futures. The US dollar was a touch lower and interest rates rose. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on below average volume. The short term indicators for GDX are still trending higher. Considering the GDX October calls as the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators here continue to move down. Another reason not to get too bearish here. The market is still at risk from the next Iran conflict headline but at least we've got the Fed and inflation data behind us for the time being. I'll be going over all the charts this weekend as we roll into the October option cycle. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Bouncing back today as the Dow gained 316 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two trading sessions and today fulfills that. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 were up over 1%. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned up from oversold territory. Out next task is to figure out if this is just another bounce out of nowhere as we work our way lower or the start of something more sustained to the upside. I'm inclined to think that it's the latter as most of the medium term indicators are now oversold and in areas that previously denoted more than just a short term bottom. However with the summation index in close proximity to the zero line, we can't rule out a further decline at the moment. We also do not know how much of the price action today was option expiration related. The game is never easy and we will be rolling over to the October option cycle so premiums will be high. Gold finished flat on the futures but its recent decline has subsided. The US dollar was barely lower and interest rates dipped. The gold shares followed the market higher. The XAU gained 13 points and GDX was up 3 1/8. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are now pointing up. I'm still considering the GDX October calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and its short term indicators are moving down with room to go. The daily chart here appears that it wants to go lower which would support more gains in stocks. The fact that the VIX couldn't make it above its 200 day moving average is another sign that the bulls could be on the verge of taking charge here. We'll see. Europe was up and Asia mixed overnight. Expiration Friday on tap tomorrow.