A mixed picture today as the Dow managed a gain of 17 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had losses, with the NASDAQ down over 1%. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P have now turned lower but it did come up off of the worst levels on the day. End of the month tomorrow and inflation data due. The NASDAQ continues to lag and that is usually not a good sign. Gold was off $17 on the futures. The US dollar was a touch higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU climbed 12 1/4 and GDX was up 2 1/2 to a new all time high. Volume was just below average. The gold shares are leading gold and that is a positive. It appears that my idea for the GDX March puts is not going to work out. GDX is short term overbought and in the midst of a light volume rally. My timing seems to be early here and unless we see some decline in GDX tomorrow this trade will be a loser. It is now posting a modest loss. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today but down from the highest levels on the session. The up trend line from January remains in place. The short term indicators for the VIX now look mixed. Asia was lower except for Japan and Europe finished the day up. We'll see how the market reacts to tomorrows data and take it from there.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 307 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending sideways. Once again the NASDAQ led things higher and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a gap up at the start and continued higher throughout the session. The short term indicators here are pointing up with room to go. The S&P looks like it will hit new all times highs again. However every time we have been in this situation for the past two months, the S&P cannot get through the 7000 level. Will it be different this time around? Stay tuned. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. The XAU rose 1 1/8 and GDX added over 1/2. Volume was light. The short term indicators here are heading sideways with some overbought. GDX finished off of the highs for the day. My open order for the GDX March calls got filled halfway through the session. It is showing a small gain. The idea is to hold this trade until Fridays inflation report or longer depending on the price action. We've have had a light volume return to the recent all time high for GDX. My expectation here is for some kind of pullback based on the technicals. Markets do go where they want however. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped which fits an up market. It is now right on the up trend line that began at the beginning of the year. A break through that line would be positive for stocks and imply that new all time highs are coming. The short term indicators for the VIX are pointing down with room to go. Tomorrow could be a waiting game as the end of the month occurs on Friday. Asia and Europe were up overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Bouncing back today as the Dow was up 370 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is beginning to track sideways. We had an early rally and then traded sideways for the rest of the session. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P are back to pointing higher at the mid-range level. So things could still go either way here. We are on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was off forty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher as were interest rates. The XAU was up 6 points and GDX added 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares continue with better relative performance than the price of gold and that is a plus. I'm still in the camp that favors lower gold prices though and I am leaving my open order for the GDX March puts out there. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall and some have made it to overbought territory. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below the 20 level. The short term indicators here are hanging around the mid-range level. The up trend line that began at the beginning of the year remains in place for the VIX. Not sure what's coming next here. Stocks have been trading sideways since the end of last year. Still waiting to see who wins this battle. For the S&P 500 it's 7000 at the top and 6800 on the bottom. Might have to jump on board once we see a breakout. Asia was mixed and Europe little changed in last nights trade. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Was today a delayed reaction to the tariff ruling? Perhaps, as the Dow lost 821 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The Dow was the leader heading south and that's not the worst scenario. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 dropped over 1%. The short term indicators for the S&P have now turned down. 6800 seems to be the line in the sand for the S&P. A close below there could lead to more selling. Gold was up $168 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates fell. The XAU was up 11 2/3, while GDX gained over 3 3/4. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX are still moving higher. Could I be wrong about golds rally being over? Maybe. The gold shares are outperforming gold itself at the moment and that is a positive. GDX is almost back to a new all time high. I did however place an overnight order for the GDX March puts and I'm leaving it out there. If GDX blasts off to a new all time high I'll have to change my thinking. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and is back over the 20 level. The short term indicators here have moved back up. I'm not sure what's next for this indicator. Option premiums are high as we have just moved into the March option cycle. Waiting for a decent signal to trade the SPY options. Inflation data on Friday that I do think will be higher than expected. Asian markets have been returning from holiday. Europe was down and Asia generally higher to begin the week. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Volatility was the name of the game today as the Dow gained 230 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. GDX was less than expected and the inflation data came in higher than anticipated. Trumps tariffs were also deemed illegal by the Supreme court. So there was a lot of news to sift through. The S&P 500 had a decent gain and its short term indicators are now moving up. It has me thinking that new all time highs could be back in play perhaps next week. Rolling into the March option cycle now so premiums will be high. Gold was up $110 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates finished basically flat again. The XAU was up 9 points and GDX rose 1 7/8. Volume was a bit above average. The short term indicators continue higher for GDX. They are not completely overbought but I am looking at the March puts there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and its short term indicators are moving down. There is an up trend line for the VIX that comes in at around 17.5. We'll see what happens if it gets back to there. I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual. Asia was lower with the exception of India and Europe higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Some selling today as the Dow fell 267 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues to trend higher. The Dow led things lower and that isn't the most bearish scenario. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move with the next two sessions. We'll see if that happens tomorrow. The S&P 500 had a small drop today. The short term indicators for the S&P are now stalling just below the mid-range level. My guess is that it will be weak tomorrow for expiration Friday but I'm not making any trades based on that. Waiting for the next signal. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up 6 1/3 and GDX rose 1 3/4. Volume remains light here for now. The short term indicators are now moving higher for GDX. I'm still a believer that gold itself has seen its high at around $5600 and won't be getting above that number anytime soon. I'm willing to try the GDX puts again on any short term overbought condition. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher and is back above the 20 level. The short term indicators here are hanging around the mid-range level. Still not sure where it goes from here. Asia was up with the exception of India and Europe was down. We'll get inflation data and GDP tomorrow. Expiration Friday on tap.

Moving higher today as the Dow gained 129 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending higher. We opened higher, had a sell off in the middle of the day only to jump back up in the final hour. The NASDAQ led the way and that is a positive. However I'm not sold on the two day rally continuing. My guess is that the short term buy signal that we got has run its course. I did try to purchase some SPY February calls again this morning but that idea has run its course. I canceled the order. I did take a look at the SPY February puts today but we don't really have a signal for that. The short term indicators for the S&P have now turned up at the mid-range level for ones we are looking at. We are back to the sidelines here. Gold was up $99 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 9 3/4, while GDX added 2 1/3. Volume was lighter than average. The short term indicators for GDX are pointing up at the mid-range level. GDX is right up against its short term down trend line and if that line holds it would make a case for the GDX puts. But there are only two days left in the February option cycle and I'm not sure it is worth the risk. I'm pretty sure that it isn't. Patience in waiting for the next decent signal is what is required at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below the 20 level. Its short term indicators are pointing lower at the mid-range level. Not sure what's next here as the VIX has been in a steady climb since the beginning of the year. Asia and Europe were both up overnight. I'll keep an eye on this evenings headlines.