A cease-fire in the Iran conflict probpted a huge rally today as the Dow soared 1325 on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading up. There was a huge gap to the upside for most stock indices at the open and the gains were held all session long. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up and are almost overbought. We are getting a sell signal from one of our indicators that we rely on. Perhaps that will come to fruition before the weekend. But we are still at the mercy of the next headline. Inflation data coming out for the next two sessions. Still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was up $70 on the futures but fell from the best levels of the day. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 12 2/3, while GDX climbed over 3 1/8. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX are still tracking sideways with some in overbought territory. I canceled my open order for the GDX April puts overnight as markets were going wild to the upside and I didn't know where the GDX options would open. There was huge gap higher in the gold shares at the open. I placed another order for the GDX puts in the morning and it did get filled. It is showing a slight gain. The idea is to sell them before the weekend after we see the inflation data. The short term technical overbought condition on GDX hopefully works in our favor. But markets can stay overbought for a while sometimes. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a gap lower today which fits with what we saw in stocks. The short term indicators here are heading lower. The VIX broke and closed below its longer term up trend line that began at the beginning of the year. This implies that stocks will be in rally mode. It is still above the 20 level though. I'm in the next trade now and the management of it will be the key to the outcome. The markets still have above average risk right now so holding on to this position for an extended period of time may not be the best idea. Seven days to go in the April option cycle. Asia and Europe had huge gains overnight. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Waiting around to see what's next out of Iran as the Dow fell 85 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trending higher. We traded lower today until the last hour when a rally moved many stocks back to the plus side. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted slight gains. Most of the short term indicators for the S&P are still trending up. Not sure what tomorrow will bring as we are still at the mercy of headline risk. Staying on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was up $41 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were flat to lower. The XAU was up 2 3/8, while GDX added almost a point. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are moving sideways with some of them overbought. My open order for the GDX April puts remains out there. Could get filled if we see the gold shares move higher tomorrow. I still like the idea of this trade ahead of the inflation reports. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but off from its best levels on the session. The short term indicators here are turning back up. If they succeed the market will head lower. However the markets are simply waiting to see if the United States starts bombing Iran tonight. That is what the near term trade boils down to. Europe was lower and Asia mixed in last nights trade overseas. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A positive start to the new week as the Dow rose 165 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is now trending higher. The trading day had a distinct sideways feel to it as the market waits for the next headline from the war in Iran. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted modest gains. The short term indicators for the S&P are still heading up. Not sure what comes next here. Inflation data due on Thursday and Friday of this week. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a touch lower and interest rates remains flat. It seems that most markets are in a wait and see approach for now. The XAU dropped 2 1/2, while GDX shed around 3/4. Volume was light which seems to be the theme for today. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to move sideways. I did place an open order for the GDX April puts and I'm leaving it out there. Ideally this order will be filled ahead of the inflation data later this week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today which doesn't fit with an up market. When price action and the VIX don't match usually the VIX gets it right. The short term indicators for the VIX continue to track sideways. Today was a slow moving, not well attended day for stocks. Waiting for the next sound bite out of Iran. Europe and Asia were mixed with some exchanges closed. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Volatility remains the name of the game for now as the Dow fell 61 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is in the process of trying to turn around. There was a huge gap lower for stocks at the open only to be followed by a run back up to positive territory in the next hour. Pretty much sideways after that. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had one day upside reversals. Advantage to the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P are still moving up but some are beginning to head sideways. Depending on what happens over the long weekend it's anyones guess how Monday turn out. I'm still staying on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold lost $111 on the futures. The US dollar was higehr and interest rates finished flat. The XAU dipped 2 1/3 and GDX lost 1 1/3 on average volume. Some of the short term indicators on GDX are still moving up while others have stalled mirroring the overall technical market action. The fact that gold itself took a big hit and the gold shares held up rather wall is a plus for the precious metal bulls. I'm still considering the GDX April puts as the next trade but will be looking at things over the weekend which may change my mind. It is a trickier than usual trading environment at the moment due to the increased volatility in most markets. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators here are trending down. The VIX closed below its short term up trend line. An extra day this weekend to go over the charts and try to figure where we go from here. The market remains in headline risk mode. There's still two weeks left in the April option cycle so we will try and get something done. Asia and Europe were both lower, with India and England bucking the trend. It's Thursday afternoon and time for a rest.

Follow through upside today as the Dow gained 224 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. The NASDAQ led the way again and that is positive for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a nice gain although it did drop back from the highs on the session. The short term indicators here are moving up with room to go. It does fell like we've seen the worst and stocks can find some footing here. However president Trump is giving a speech about the Iran war tonight so anything goes after that. Stocks are still at the mercy of the next sound bite. As we have seen lately it can get things going in either direction. Gold was up $116 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU gained 15 1/4, while GDX added 3 7/8. Volume was good to the upside again. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up. Not yet overbought here. We missed the gold share calls here. I am now looking at the GDX April puts as my next trade. Not in a hurry to put this trade on so I will probably let tomorrow go by and look at it next week. Unless we see another big day for the gold shares tomorrow. If GDX gets up to 100 I'll be attempting to purchase those April puts. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is right on its short term up trend line from the past month. The short term indicators here are still trying to move lower from the mid-range level. If the VIX can make it down through its short term up trend line it would be a plus for the bulls. However there is still the longer term up trend line to contend with at the 21 level. One thing at a time though. Only a day left in the shortened trading week and we still have the question of who will want to hold stocks over what is now going to be a long weekend? We'll see how markets react to the Trump speech and go from there. Asia and Europe climbed higher in last nights trade. I'll keep watch on the overnight developments.

A huge rally today as signs that the war with Iran is coming to a close. The Dow roared ahead by 1125 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but could stall and turn here at the zero line if this rise continues. We don't know what will happen next. Usually in extended declines or bear markets you get some kind of big rally out of nowhere and we saw that today. The key will be if we see some follow through to the upside or not. Things could just as easily head back down tomorrow. The NASDAQ led the way as it gained almost 4% and that's a plus. The S&P 500 was up 184 points in a day. The short term indicators there are now moving up. It certainly has the feel that the decline is over. We'll see. Gold was up 157 points on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU jumped 24 3/4 and GDX climbed 5 2/3. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are moving higher now as well. I canceled my open order for the GDX April calls as that ship has sailed. My thinking now is to wait for a short term overbought condition and try the GDX puts again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sank today and most of its short term indicators are moving down. The longer term up trend line for the VIX comes in at 21. What happens there will tell us whether the decline has ended or not. We are still over four points away from there though so there is room for the VIX to drop and stocks to rise. An interesting day on the street to be sure. But we are still at the mercy of the next headline. Asia lower and Europe higher again. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A mixed bag to begin a short trading week with the Dow higher and the overall market lower. The most watched index rose 49 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ is still the weakest of the bunch and that's a negative. A late, last half hour rise kept things from being worse. The S&P 500 had a modest loss. The short term indicators here are stuck in oversold territory. You could begin to make a case for some kind of oversold bounce to occur but just as easily say things will fall apart with the summation index crossing the zero line. Our question remains who will want to own stocks at the end of this week heading into a long weekend? No SPY option trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU dipped 3 3/4, while GDX was flat. Volume was about average. The short term indicators on GDX are starting to move sideways. I did place an order overnight for the GDX April calls and I'm leaving it out there. No hurry to get filled on this idea for a trade but if things collapse I would like to have an order out there to possibly get filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today and its short term indicators are beginning to stall. Still not completely overbought here. Not sure what's next for the VIX. Not a lot of economic data due this week. Februarys retail sales on Wednesday and the jobs report will come out when the markets are closed on Friday. We are still being held hostage to whatever happens with the war in Iran. Europe higher and Asia lower to start the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.