A mixed bag to begin a short trading week with the Dow higher and the overall market lower. The most watched index rose 49 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ is still the weakest of the bunch and that's a negative. A late, last half hour rise kept things from being worse. The S&P 500 had a modest loss. The short term indicators here are stuck in oversold territory. You could begin to make a case for some kind of oversold bounce to occur but just as easily say things will fall apart with the summation index crossing the zero line. Our question remains who will want to own stocks at the end of this week heading into a long weekend? No SPY option trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU dipped 3 3/4, while GDX was flat. Volume was about average. The short term indicators on GDX are starting to move sideways. I did place an order overnight for the GDX April calls and I'm leaving it out there. No hurry to get filled on this idea for a trade but if things collapse I would like to have an order out there to possibly get filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today and its short term indicators are beginning to stall. Still not completely overbought here. Not sure what's next for the VIX. Not a lot of economic data due this week. Februarys retail sales on Wednesday and the jobs report will come out when the markets are closed on Friday. We are still being held hostage to whatever happens with the war in Iran. Europe higher and Asia lower to start the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Still heading down as the Dow fell 793 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. It is heading for the now inevitable crossing of the zero line to the downside. Stocks will continue to drop, we just don't know how far. Unless the Iran war ends all of a sudden but we are not counting on that. The NASDAQ is still leading the way down and that's a negative. The S&P 500 dropped over 100 points again. The short term indicators here are oversold and staying that way. The next area of support for the S&P comes in around 6100. However we are not going to try and predict the bottom at this time. Option premiums remain high. Gold was up $134 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU gained 12 1/4, while GDX added 3 1/2. Volume was good. Today was the first time in a while that we saw the gold shares higher when the overall market was lower. Take note. It appears that the decline in gold is over. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to move up. We will be looking for any near term pullback in GDX to try and purchase the April calls. This looks to be the next trade. The fact that gold itself recovered what it lost yesterday is a plus for the precious metal bulls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and is now above 30. It usually doesn't stay that high for long but with the current technical condition of the market, who knows? The short term indicators here are into overbought territory. Plenty of work to do over the weekend as we try and come up with the best trading scenario moving forward. I'll be checking the charts as usual. Also a short trading week on tap as exchanges will be closed on Friday the 3rd. Asia was mixed and Europe down to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Stocks headed back down today as the Dow fell 469 points on good volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to heading lower. The fact that it is close to the zero line must be taken into account. Things will get ugly if we don't see a turnaround. The NASDAQ led the way lower again, this time dropping over 500 points. The S&P 500 lost over a hundred. The short term indicators on the S&P turned back down in oversold territory. It closed at a new low for the year. The bears are in charge. Tomorrow should be interesting. Who will want to own stocks ahead of the weekend? Gold got clobbered as the futures fell $191. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The XAU dipped 12 1/2 and GDX lost 3 3/4. This time volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX turned lower in oversold territory following the overall market. What we would like to see is the gold shares falling to a new low for the chance to try the GDX April calls. Markets rarely cooperate however. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and remains above the 20 level. The short term indicators here are back to pointing up. No telling where the VIX is going next. But if we see the summation index plow through the zero line, the VIX will be headed higher. As I stated earlier we have to be aware of this possibility due to the current location of the summation index. It is usually nowhere near the zero line. When it goes through that line things fall apart. Things need to turnaround in a hurry to avoid this. Anything is possible when markets are held hostage to the next sound bite. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of India. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Moving higher today as the Dow was up 305 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is beginning to stall. Once again the NASDAQ was the leader. The S&P 500 had another modest gain. It has fallen back from its best levels on the day for three days in a row now. The short term indicators are moving up but slowly. I'm not sure if the S&P is going to turn higher from here or it is just stalling before a collapse. The zero line on the summation index is within striking distance. So what happens now in the next few days will be the key to where we are going. The market is still at the mercy of the next headline. Gold was up $114 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU gained 8 3/4, while GDX was up 2 3/4. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up but are still on the oversold side of the ledger. Looks too late for the GDX calls now as we will have to change strategy. We'll now look for the GDX April puts when it gets short term overbought. We will be looking for a retest of the recent lows. All subject to change though as we wait for the gold market to provide some clues. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an up market. The short term indicators here have now drifted back lower. No conviction either way on the indicators. The longer term up trend line that began in January for the VIX is still in effect. Simply waiting on what's next for the markets as the week goes by. Looking for the next signal to trade. Options premiums remain high. Patience for now. Asia and Europe were higher as hopes for an end to the Iran conflict gains steam. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Bouncing around today as we opened with a gap lower and traded sideways for the rest of the session. The Dow fell 84 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 had a small loss. The short term indicators there are still oversold and now heading sideways. We remain at the mercy of the next Iran headline. We'll stick to the sidelines for now. Gold was off four bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 3 3/4 and GDX finished flat. Volume was average. Still short term oversold for GDX. We are looking at the GDX April calls as the next trade but will wait on that for now. There is still a chance that stocks move lower from here and they would take the gold shares with them. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today which fits a down market. The short term indicators here are trying to move up. If they do we'll see lower prices. We are in a tricky trading environment due to the overall geo-political background which includes war. Option premiums remain high because of volatility and the beginning of the next option cycle. So I will try and remain patient for now. Asia and Europe were higher last night with the exception of the DAX. I'll be keeping an eye on things overnight.

Volatility works both ways as the Dow gained 631 points on pretty heavy volume. It was up over a thousand early on. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving lower. Headline risk remains the theme as whatever happens in Iran takes center stage. Tough trading envirionment to be sure. Both the Dow and NASDAQ led the way higher. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to turn up from oversold territory. So there is a chance that stocks turn around and the summation index doesn't make it through the zero line. But there's a chance that is does too as we are getting closer to it every day. I'm staying on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Premiums are high along with uncertainty. Gold lost $161 on the futures. It did finish well up from the lows on the session. The daily candlestick chart here looks like appears to show that a low has been put in. We'll see. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 12 1/2, while GDX was up 3 1/8. Volume was heavy to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to move higher from deeply oversold. Gold down and the gold shares up is a positive sign. I canceled my open order for the GDX April calls as it wasn't close to being able to be filled. I still like this idea and am going to try to put it on at some point in the April option cycle. The short term technicals for gold itself remain extremely oversold. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was a bit lower after being all over the place today. The short term indicators here are beginning to trend sideways. Not exactly sure what to expect here next for the VIX. The market remains hostage to the next revelation on Iran. There is nothing wrong with waiting things out as having no position is still a position. We do like trying the gold share calls at some point in the near future. Asia down and Europe up to start the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Another day of liquidation as the Dow fell 443 points on extremely heavy expiration volume. The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. A last half hour bounce kept things from being worse. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within two days and today satisfies that. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. The S&P 500, which lost 100 points today, is short term oversold and staying there which is never a good sign. The 200 day average did not hold. The next area of support is far away at 6100. As the summation index heads towards the zero line it is possible that things fall apart and the S&P makes it down to that level. But it is not a certainty. Options premiums are already high as we roll into the April option cycle. The puts are still looking like the way to go with regards to the SPY. Gold was off $103. The dollar was up along with interest rates. The XAU fell 13 points, while GDX lost 2 3/4. Volume was good again to the downside. GDX remains short term oversold and staying that way. Support at 82 didn't hold so the next level that we are looking at is 75. I did place an open order for the GDX April calls and I'm leaving it out there. GDX is getting so blown out to the downside it looks like an opportunity for a short term trade. But that doesn't mean that it can't just simply continue lower. We'll be keeping an eye on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped back up today and its short term indicators have turned higher. If the VIX keeps moving up stocks will keep moving down. The market is in an interesting place at the moment. Opportunity is out there but the risks are high. I'll be checking all the charts this weekend to try and figure out what to do next. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of India to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.