Selling today as the Dow fell 341 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving down. It could have been worse but most indices finished well up from their morning lows after a gap lower on the open. The Dow led things down and that isn't the most bearish scenario. Most of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought. I'm not sure what's coming next here for stocks. There was no follow through to the new all time high in the S&P. Other indicators that we look at are mixed. Some of the longer term ones are in areas that usually precede market strength. Some shorter term ones are showing signs of a near term top. I'm on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold got spanked as the futures dropped $58. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU fell 11 1/4, while GDX lost 2 3/4. Volume was about average. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back down in oversold territory. GDX has now broken below the area of consolidation that appeared to be forming a bottom to me. Needless to say my GDX October calls lost even more ground and I dumped them for an 85% loss. The stop loss order that I had in that didn't get filled earlier this week was set for a 50% loss. So I tacked on another 35% by being stubborn in this trade. My mistake was not just getting out when the stop loss wasn't filled. The 50% losses are part of the game. The only saving grace is that there wasn't much money put into this idea, as it failed the last time that I tried it as well. Will I try this trade again? Probably. Some of the medium term technical indicators that we watch have been stretched to extremes for the US dollar and US interest rates. Meaning that these two products cannot continue to rise forever. There has to be some kind of consolidation or move in the opposite direction to relieve the out of whack condition. A drop in the dollar and yields would normally be supportive for gold. When that occurs, combined with the oversold condition for GDX, it should lead to some kind of positive price action on the gold shares. Perhaps moving out to the GDX November calls will be the next attempt. Mentally I'm feeling a bit perplexed as the GDX losing trade does not help with the trading confidence factor. However it must be put in the rear view mirror because the market doesn't care. The VIX was just up slightly today. The short term indicators are now tracking sideways. The daily candlestick chart here still looks like it wants to go lower. Europe and Asia were down overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

More upside today as the Dow gained 253 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. We had a gap higher and then rallied for the first half of the day. Sideways to lower completed the session. The S&P 500 joined the NASDAQ with a new all time high. The short term indicators for the S&P are now overbought. They can stay that way during rallies but we don't really know if that's what we have here yet. Breadth remains a concern. Gold was up forty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was down and interest rates finished slightly lower. The XAU rose about 3 points and GDX added around 3/4. Volume was light. Considering the move higher in gold along with the drop in the dollar and interest rates the gold shares didn't do much. That is not a positive. My GDX October calls remain soild losers and I probably should have abandoned this idea today. GDX remains short term oversold although the indicators have turned up. The daily candlestick charts looks like it is putting in a bottom. But I'm running out of time with only 8 days to go and being far out of the money. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower which fits the upside today in stocks. The short term indicators here are trending lower with a little more room to go before hitting short term oversold. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on this evenings developments.

We begin the week on a positive note as the Dow rose 91 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ climbed 1% and the S&P 500 had a solid day. The NASDAQ closed at a new all time high which is a plus for the bulls. Gains would have been even better but there was a last half hour sell off. The short term indicators for the S&P are moving up and getting to overbought territory. If the summation index turns back up the S&P 500 will be at new all time highs as well. Hasn't happened yet. Gold was $6 higher on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU was off a point and GDX dipped 1/3. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are stuck in oversold territory. My GDX October calls are mired in a losing position. A little less than two weeks to go here and probably need to get out of this trade sooner rather than later. The loss right now is more than I want it to be. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished slightly higher today which doesn't fit with an overall upside market. Some short term indicators for the VIX are still moving lower while others are beginning to track sideways. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower. Light on economic data this week so we'll have to wait and see what can get things moving. Asia and Europe were higher to start the week with the exception of France. We'll see hwo it goes tomorrow.

Some upside for stocks today as the jobs report came in weaker than expected. The Dow rose 250 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues to trend lower. We opened with a gap higher, then sold off for brief period and moved sideways for the rest of the day. The NASDAQ finished up over 1% and the S&P 500 had a decent gain as well. The short term indicators for the S&P have moved up from the mid-range level. Not sure if the bounce will continue as the market has had a mind of its own for quite a while. But as I have already noted, our medium term indicators have been oversold for too long. I continue to look for higher stock prices going forward. Gold ended the day down $27 after being higher early on. The US dollar was lower but interest rates were up. The XAU was up about 4 and GDX added a point. Volume was just shy of average. Gold lower and the gold shares higher is something we haven't seen for a while. It's a positive for the gold bulls. My stop loss order for the GDX October call trade should have been filled as it traded at the price I specified but wasn't hit. Not sure what's going on there. I canceled the order and will now hold it without a stop loss which we know implies more risk. The trade remains on the losing side of the ledger. The short term indicators for GDX are still stuck in oversold territory. I'll give this trade a couple of more days and see where we go from there. I am still considering going out to the GDX November calls for the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today which fits with an up market. The short term indicators here are now trending lower. Not a lot of economic data out next week so the markets will have to find other reasons to move. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Asia lower and Europe higher to finish out the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Down in the morning and back up in the afternoon but at the end of the day not much progress made in either direction. The Dow finished up 20 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted small gains as well. Volume has picked up in the past two sessions so something is going on here. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions. We'll see if that comes to fruition tomorrow. Employment data on tap and that could get things moving. The short term indicators for the S&P have stalled at the mid-range level. So it looks like things could go either way from here. I still think the market is on the verge of turning around here but have been proven wrong in the near term. Gold was up $22 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU fell 3 1/4, while GDX dropped a buck. Volume was a touch above average. Gold up and the gold shares down isn't a good sign for the bulls or my GDX October calls. That trade is showing a loss and came within a tick of getting stopped out near the close. GDX is very oversold on a short term basis but cannot get anything going to the upside. More negative price action tomorrow will stop me out of the current trade. Although yesterday I was thinking to chase this idea at a different strike price, today I'm more in the camp of taking the loss and stepping aside. When the technical signals don't work that would be the more prudent course of action. But we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat after being higher early on. The short term indicators here are trending sideways near the mid-range level. The daily candlestick chart for the VIX looks like it wants to go lower which would bode well for stocks. But what it looks like and what it does are sometimes two different things. Asia was up with the exception of India and Europe down overnight. We'll see how the markets react to the jobs numbers and close out the trading week tomorrow.

The inflation data came in lighter than expected but the market still could not get anything going to the upside as the Dow lost 443 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving down. There was a one day downside reversal for the S&P 500 as it could not hold on to its early gains at the end of the day. The NASDAQ managed a small gain though. The short term indicators for the S&P are either heading lower or sideways at the mid-range level. Still plenty of sellers around at the end of the month. Next up is the jobs report on Friday. Some of our medium term indicators are blown out to the downside at levels that usually lead to some kind of rally or at least a decent bounce. Hasn't happened yet. Gold was up six bucks on the futures as it could not hold on to its gains either. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU fell 5 and GDX dropped 1 1/4. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX remain oversold. It also had a one day downside reversal as it opened higher and closed lower. I did place an order for the GDX October calls this morning and it was filled. This trade is showing a small loss. I have a stop loss order in place as I may be too early for this idea to work. If the trade does get stopped out I will try it again at a different strike price. I do expect some sort of move higher or decent bounce for gold and the gold shares at some point before the October option expiration. The technical evidence supports that thesis in my view. Timing as always is the key. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits with a mostly overall down picture for stocks today. The short term indicators are now moving higher. Still below the 200 day moving average here. I'm in the next trade now and at the rate things are going it will get stopped out tomorrow. Regardless, we are sticking with the gold share call trade opinion for now. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. I'll keep an eye on this evenings developments.

Just hanging around today as the Dow fell another 131 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues to move down. Small losses in the NASDAQ and S&P 500 as the Dow was the leader lower. Waiting on tomorrows inflation data. Not looking for any surprises there but who knows? The short term indicators for the S&P are still trending lower with some at the mid-range level. No SPY option trades for now. However I am still in the camp that the market starts to turn higher sooner rather than later. Gold was up $37 on the futures. The US dollar was higher an interest rates finished mixed. The XAU rose 1 1/3 and GDX added around 1 1/4. Volume was just a bit below average. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn up in oversold territory. I would like to try the GDX October calls on any weakness tomorrow. That is the plan at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished basically unchanged today. The short term indicators here are heading sideways. I'm still not sure what's next for the VIX. Plenty of economic data out tomorrow highlighted by the inflation report. End of the month to deal with too. So it should be an interesting session. Europe was mixed and Asia generally lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.