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Friday, July 26, 2024

A bounce back today as the inflation data came in where expected and the Dow climbed 654 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. This should have the summation index moving back up. The Dow led things higher today. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 are turning back up from oversold readings. Ideally we'd like to see the bounce continue to the down trend line that comes in at around 5500 or so. That would be the spot to try the SPY August puts unless we see an increase in the volume through that area. Things should remain interesting next week with the Fed in the middle of the week and then the jobs report on Friday. Earnings for better or for worse will be a factor as well. The under performance of the NASDAQ is a negative here in my view. We'll certainly be keeping an eye on things. Gold was up $32 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat again and interest rates were lower. The XAU was up a point and GDX rose almost 1/3. Volume was light. A nice rise in gold itself but the gold shares didn't do much. That is not a plus for the bulls here. GDX is close to short term oversold on some of the daily indicators. I'm going to try and wait see if it makes it to the up trend line at 35.5. However I'm not as sure about the GDX calls here as I was earlier. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators here are rolling over and the daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go lower. This would imply higher stock prices in the near future. Still above the 200 day moving average though. Quite a week it was and plenty to consider over the weekend. I'll be checking the charts as usual to try and decide which way to go. The Fed, economic data, earnings and the end of the month on tap on tap next week. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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