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Friday, July 05, 2024

The employment data came in where expected and the rally continues. The Dow was up 67 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is on a sideways track. New all time closing highs for the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 with the NASDAQ leading the way higher. The S&P remains short term overbought. Just how high are we going to go here? Weak breadth hasn't stopped things. July has gotten off to a fine start for the bulls. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up $27 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 3 1/2 and GDX rose a buck. Volume was average. GDX is getting close to the longer term multi-year down trend line at 37-38. If it can get through there on good volume it should travel up to the 40 level. GDX is getting to short term overbought but not all the way there yet. I've missed the best entry point for the GDX July calls but there is a chance that they may still work. It appears now that any weakness here can be bought. We will be keeping an eye on things. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which certainly doesn't fit with an up market. The short term indicators have turned up. Not sure what's going on here. It was a good holiday week for stocks but the volume wasn't all that strong. We can probably chalk that up to many players out on vacation. It will be something to keep an eye on next week. Still two weeks left in the July option cycle so there is plenty of time for a trade. I'll go over the charts this weekend to hopefully come up with some ideas. Right now it appears the GDX calls on weakness might be the plan. But we'll see. I'm not exactly sold on the stock market rally but you cannot argue with price. It is very narrow and concentrated though. Asia and Europe were mostly lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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