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Thursday, July 18, 2024

Stocks in general opened higher and closed lower for a one day downside reversal. The Dow got clobbered and lost 533 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving higher. The Dow led the way lower today. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed up from the lows of the session thanks to some final hour buying. The S&P 500 has now broken its up trend line that began in the beginning of May. That is not a positive sign. The short term indicators there have turned down with room to go. We could see a snap back up to the line that was just broken but the tone of things has changed here. Volatility has picked up and there is a good chance that the party for stocks is over for now. That doesn't mean it will be a straight line down but caution for now is probably not a bad idea. Gold was off $14 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 3 points while GDX was lower by more than 1/2. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX have turned down but it remains on the overbought side. I'm still considering the GDX August calls and almost placed an order for them today. However if the overall market does tank here it will probably take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued higher and now is well above its 200 day moving average. Not yet close to the 20 level though. Short term overbought here now on the VIX so a pause in the volatility is not out of the question. The weekly indicators still have plenty of room to go higher. A busy summer expiration week so far with only one day left. Europe and Asia finished mixed overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes.

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