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Wednesday, July 10, 2024

To the upside as the Dow climbed 429 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. This should move the summation index higher. The McClellan oscillator signal for a big move was valid this time around. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 soared to new all time closing highs. The summer rally is here. I also think that we're in the midst of a blow off top that eventually will not end well. But we'll enjoy the ride for now. The S&P continues to be short term overbought. The short term sell signal that we got did not work just like last month. However this time around I did not act on it so we didn't have a losing trade here. Taking a step back right now with regards to the SPY. I don't know how long this blow off will last. Good news on inflation tomorrow could propel things even higher. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower along with interest rates. Both the XAU and GDX followed stocks higher. The XAU gained 4 points and GDX was up almost a point. Volume was about average. GDX is short term overbought on some but not all of the indicators. GDX is up against the longer term trend line at 37. Getting through there on good volume is what I think is about to happen. We did miss this move higher in the gold shares though. I'm not sure that we'll get another chance for the calls here in the July cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that does not make sense with the across the board move higher for stocks today. Not sure what it means going forward. The VIX does remain below its 50 day moving average. Europe was up and Asia generally lower with the exception of Japan. All eyes on the inflation data out tomorrow morning.

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