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Tuesday, July 16, 2024

Higher we go and it's not unexpected as the Dow soared 742 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The Dow led the way again which tells me we are probably closer to the end of the rally than the beginning. However we don't know how high it will go. The NASDAQ is lagging now and that isn't a good sign necessarily. But you can't argue with price and the other major stock indices are climbing. It has all the makings of a blow off top right now. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I continue to think that we'll move higher into the option expiration on Friday. Gold was up $45 on the futures to a new all time closing high. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were lower. The XAU jumped 4 7/8, while GDX added 1 1/3. Volume was good. Still lamenting not owning the GDX July calls but that won't do me any good. GDX has broken the longer term down trend line resistance that was years in the making. It should be going higher for a while now. The next techncial expectation will be some sort of move back towards the line that was broken. That will be our next chance at the calls there. Not sure when and if that will happen. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up slightly again today which makes no sense give the huge rise in stocks. Getting more short term overbought here. The daily chart is implying that the VIX will head lower which should be supportive of higher stock prices in the near future. Let the rally live on. No summer doldrums in July this year. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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