Wednesday, July 17, 2024
The overall market got whacked but the Dow managed to post a gain of 243 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ dropped over 500 points today. It has now broken below the up trend line on the daily chart that began in the beginning of May. That is not a good sign for the bulls. The S&P 500 lost almost 1.5%. The short term indicators here have rolled over. I thought that the market would simply drift higher into the option expiration on Friday but that was wrong. A mixed picture here with the Dow hitting a new all time closing high. However the NASDAQ is generally the leader of the pack and todays price action puts the rally at risk. It's possible that the summer rally is over. Gold was off $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU fell three points and GDX dropped around 7/8. Volume was average. If GDX makes it back to the longer term breakout point at 37 we'll consider the August calls there. Still short term overbought on GDX though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and closed above its 200 day moving average. Yesterday the daily chart had the look of wanting to go lower but that is no longer the case. Short term overbought now for the VIX but not at extremes. The tightening Bollinger bands forecast a big move coming and it is to the upside for the VIX. That does not bode well for stocks. We'll see how things go for the rest of the week. Asia and Europe were mixed. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
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