Sellers showed up today in the final hour as the Dow fell 550 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues to move up. The market was trending lower for much of the day and then fell apart with an hour to go. No index led the way as the big 3 were all down 1 1/2%. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over but they're still overbought. Perhaps it was just an end of the month gyration. I don't think that was are about to start a huge move lower but my ideas haven't exactly panned out lately. As I have already stated, things can't go straight up indefinately. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates remained steady. The XAU was off 1 1/4, while GDX shed about 1/3. Volume was light. Volume has tapered off for the gold shares lately. I'm not sure what to make of that. The Bollinger bands are contracting on the daily chart which implies a big move coming up. As always, which way is the question. Overbought on the indicators for GDX but there's still room for them to move higher. I suppose that if it gets back to the up trend line at 37 I'll give the calls a try. Not exactly sure if that is the right idea though. Losing trades generally impede confidence. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and that fits a down market. The up trend line from November has proven to be still intact. The short term indicators here have turned up but not decidedly so. However if the trend line remains in place it could give the bears some courage. Looking back the correct strategy this week would have been to wait until that line for the VIX was touched and then purchasing the SPY April puts. However my focus was on other indicators and you have to go with what you are doing at the time. But it's always a good idea to look at all the angles. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the employment report tomorrow.

A pause in the rally today as the Dow fell 65 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. We had a final hour rally to bring things back up. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation data due out tomorrow. The Ukraine/Russia conflict has taken a back seat for now. Gold was up around $20 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX gained 3/8. Volume was light. I'd still like to get some GDX April calls because it looks like it is about to break out to the upside. Getting short term overbought but not there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX held steady at the up trend line from November. It remains extremely oversold. I'm looking for volatility to pick up and soon. Perhaps the inflation data tomorrow or the jobs report on Friday will get things moving here. The market has gone up in a straight line for about two weeks. This will not go on forever. Asia was higher ans Europe lower last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Another day another gain as the Dow climbed 338 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. I was stopped out of the SPY April puts that I bought at the close yesterday for a 40% loss. That's two losses in two days as my thesis about the market was wrong. I was expecting the rally to stop at previous resistance points and it has proven that it won't. We may even be headed for new all time highs soon at this rate. Overbought and staying that way for the S&P 500. The NASDAQ was again the leader to the upside as the bulls are clearly in charge. It appears that we missed a good entry point for long term money a couple of weeks ago. We should have just taken our cues from the summation index as it pointed the way down and now the way up. I'm heading back to the sidelines with respect to the SPY for now. Gold fell another $20 on the futures but came up from the lows of the session.. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares had a huge gap down at the open and made it all the way back and then some. Any selling in the gold shares is being met with buyers. It was a mistake to not keep a closer eye on things here while attempting the SPY trades. Today looks like it was the ideal entry point for the GDX calls but my mind was focussed elsewhere. Even though one of the current ideas was to get the GDX calls ahead of Thursdays inflation data. It's probably best to take a step back here for a moment. Mentally the losses don't bother me too much but it may be time for a reassessment of trading tactics. The last couple of trade set ups had losses right after losses and that is a recipe for disastor. The VIX is now claerly below 20 and remaining short term oversold. Overdue for some kind of bounce up here with some volatility but I've already had my attempts and they were met with failure. We are now on a line of support for the VIX that started in November. A break here will further support the bulls. The market seems like it just wants to go higher as the technical indicators remain overbought. Europe and Asia were up as money finds a home in stocks around the globe. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Stocks continued to the upside to begin the week as the Dow gained 94 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. During the session I purchased some of the SPY April puts. The S&P 500 was at the last Fibanocci retracement level and I wanted to give this idea a shot. The S&P blew through the resistance. It does remain short term overbought. At this point the market seems to be saying that we are going even higher from the recent lows. At the close I decided to simply sell those SPY puts for a small loss and roll into the puts at a closer to the money strike price so that's what I did. The loss on the first position was 15%. The current SPY April put position that I bought at the close is showing a small loss. I still believe that with the market going up in a straight line for two weeks it is due for a pullback or pause. I could be wrong. Gold shed $30 on the futures today to begin the week. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU lost 4 2/3, while GDX was off a point. Volume was light. I'm still considering the GDX April calls ahead of Thursdays inflation data but I really like to take things one trade at a time. The short term technical indicators for GDX are still mid-range and the up trend line comes in at 36. If we get to 36 in the next couple of days I will probably give this idea a try. Mentally I'm feeling tired, not enough sleep. The VIX dropped both below the important 20 level and below its 200 day moving average. This is another reason why I wanted to trade the SPY puts. Volatility should pick up. The VIX is also very oversold on a daily basis and has been oversold for 2 weeks. This will not continue indefinately. I'm not saying that another leg down for stocks is about to happen but I do expect some near term weakness at least. We'll see. Europe was generally higher and Asia mixed to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We closed the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 153 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues higher. It was a back and forth session with the market trying to make up its mind. We are are the cusp of the final resistance of 4550 for the S&P 500. It remains short term overbought. I did place an open order overnight for the SPY April puts but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it out there but may have to adjust it on Monday morning. It was another positive week for stocks and that may spell doom for trying the puts here. However the volume wasn't all that great today and perhaps we're running out of steam. The NASDAQ was lower. I'll reconsider things over the weekend. Gold was off $8 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates continued their climb. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume. I still like the calls here and might try them ahead of some inflation data that is due out this Thursday. More overbought than oversold for GDX but not extremely so. The drawback is the anemic volume today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and is almost at the important 20 level. Another day like today on Monday will get it there. Short term oversold and has been for a few days. Just shy of its 200 day moving average. Technically things have set up and are pointing to buying some SPY April puts now. Unless Monday turns into a huge rally to the upside on good volume, the market should at least stall here at the final Fibanocci retracement of the decline. There's also the possibility that the decline resumes from here as well. Or the rally will continue and we've seen the lows for a while. So Monday will be a key and we'll be paying attention. Plenty of work to do over the weekend while going over the charts. Perhaps we'll find something there that will change our prognosis. Asia was lower and Europe higher to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The rally continues as the Dow gained 349 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Short term overbought and staying that way for the major stock indices. If we make it through 4550 on the S&P 500 I'll have to rethink my thesis of what's going on here. Hasn't happened yet but money is finding a home in stocks for the past couple of weeks. Still plenty of bears out there so perhaps we are going back to the old highs. Gold was up $25 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. A move higher in gold and the gold shares going nowhere is a negative. Not getting any kind of signal from the GDX short term technical indicators. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX continued lower and is still short term oversold. We are almost at the 20 level which is about where the 200 day moving average lies as well. A move to 20 on the VIX is where it makes technical sense to try the SPY April puts. If the VIX continues lower from there you would exit the trade for a loss because it will not work. If the VIX hits 20 and the S&P 500 also hits 4550 that is the ideal set up. Maybe we will get there tomorrow, who knows? That is what we will be looking for. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Some overdue selling today as the Dow fell 449 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. The big 3 of the major averages, the Dow, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ all had around the same percentage loss. That says that this isn't the beginning of a huge decline most likely. The market is digesting the recent stellar gains and then it will decide where to go from that. We're still short term overbought on some of the indicators for the S&P. 4550 remains the level to watch in order to try the SPY April puts. Volume was relatively lighter than it has been so there was no rush for the exits. Gold found a bid and the futures rose $25. The US dollar was slightly higher while interest rates turned lower. The XAU was up over 3 and GDX gained about a point. Volume was lighter than it's been lately. The short term technical indicators have turned up from their mid-range position. So perhaps we are going to miss the next leg up here. We'll see if we get any follow through tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only slightly higher today and remains short term oversold. Not sure what that means going forward. I'm still hoping that the VIX makes it to the 20 level in order to try those SPY April puts. The market rarely cooperates. We remain patient for now. Plenty of time left in the April option cycle. It looks like we'll let this week go by and take it from there. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 254 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Short term overbought for the major stcok indices and staying that way. The line in the sand for this rally on the S&P 500 is the 4550 level. If we make it past there then my idea that we will be seeing lower prices as the year progresses will be out the window. 4550 is the final Fibanocci retracement level from the recent decline. Make it through that level and there is no ceiling on the rally. This weeks price action is important and right now it's saying that we're going higher. Gold was down $8 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed after being higher early on. Interest rates continue to climb and some of the bond sell off money is heading into stocks. The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light here for a change. Still mid-range on the short term technical indicators for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lwoer and that fits with a gain for stocks today. Short term oversold for the VIX and getting closer to the 20 level. If we get down to 20 I'd like to try the SPY April puts. We'll see. It's been quite a rally in the past 6 days however the small stocks have not even made it back to their 200 day moving averages. I still think some kind of pause is due or perhaps a trip back to the down trend lines that were broken. Those kind of things would make sense but the market as always goes where it wants. Asia and Europe had gains in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye out for the ongoing headlines.

A pause in the rally today as the Dow fell 202 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving higher. We are now short term overbought for the major averages so some type of stall or corrective price action should occur. The Dow was the worst performer today. The S&P 500 is still hugging its upper Bollinger band. How the week finishes will tell us a lot about where we are going. But is't only Monday. Not a lot of economic data due out this week. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was up along with interest rates. The XAU gained 3 1/3, while GDX was up almost a point. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are mid-range but it does look like it wants to turn up here. I'd still like to wait and see if GDX can get back to its up trend line before attempting the calls again. Not sure if that's the proper strategy but that's what I'm going with for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower and remains short term oversold. I'm looking for a decline at some point this week for stocks. I don't think that it will be the beginning of anything sustainable though. The huge move up in the McClellan oscillator last week has the look of an initiation move. That doesn't mean that we go on to new all time highs but it does take a big decline off the table for now. We'll just have to wait and see where things go from here. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The rally continues as the Dow added 274 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ is leading the way higher and that is a good thing for the bulls. We are right back to the resistance of 4470 at the 200 day moving average on the S&P 500. Short term overbought on some of the indicators for the S&P so I do believe that the rally will stall here. It was a very positive week for stocks but we'll have to see if we get any follow through going forward. The down trend lines have been broken to the upside on many of the major stock averages. But after moving straight up for 4 days some kind of pause is due. I'm still a believer in lower prices later this year before the selling is complete. I could be wrong. Gold lost $25 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates slipped. The XAU was off 1 1/8, while GDX slid 3/8. Volume was good. I'm still a fan of the gold shares and will look to try the calls again on GDX if it gets back to the up trend line at 35. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. I had expected some selling from yesterdays VIX reading but it did not occur. If the VIX can make it back to 20, I'll consider the SPY puts. However we are rolling into the April option cycle next week and the premiums are inflated. Perhaps some sideways to higher stock prices will make things more attractive. It was a good week for stocks but one must remember that in down trends rallies spring out of nowhere. If we continue higher next week I might have to change my view. But for now I would not be a longer term buyer yet. Asia and Europe were slightly higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Higher we climb as the Dow gained 417 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive again. The summation index is now moving up. Sellers are gone for now as we are breaking down trend lines in the major averages that have been in effect since the beginning of January. The NASDAQ continues to be the leader and that is a plus. The next area of resistance that we're looking at are the upper Bollinger bands and the 200 day moving average for the S&P. These come in around the 4470 level. The short term indicators here are getting short term overbought but are not there yet. I'm not looking for new all time highs anytime soon. I'm guessing a sideways channel until we go lower later this year. But we'll see. Gold rallied with the futures up around $30. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 3 7/8, while GDX gained 2/3. Volume was average. I still like the gold shares going forward and am looking at the April and May calls for GDX. GDX has an up trend line at the 35 level. If we can somehow make it back to there with an oversold technical condition, that would be the time to try the calls. Mentally I'm doing OK despite getting stopped out on those GDX calls yesterday only to see them rally today. At least the idea was correct in theory but we're here to make money. The VIX closed below its 50 day moving average and is touching the lower Bollinger band. It is also short term oversold on some of the technical indicators. This seems to imply that volatility is about to pick up again and we should see some selling. Option expiration tomorrow and anything goes there. We did see some of the positive expiration week bias this time around. Asia was up and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Two days in a row to the upside as the Dow climbed 518 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up but still stuck in a sideways channel. The Fed raised rates but it was already a known fact so it did not rile the markets. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. It looks like the next stop is the down trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of January. The S&P is also below both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. We'll see if things can break through to end the recent decline. The NASDAQ led the way higher again and that's a plus. I get the feeling that we're going to break the recent down trend lines for the major stock indices but we will have to wait and see. I could change my mind once we get there depending on the technicals. Gold was about flat after dropping early on the futures. The US dollar was lower despite the Fed. Interest rates creeped up. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other after dropping lower during the session. I was stopped out of my GDX March call trade for a 50% loss. After getting stopped out GDX turned around and those same calls are right back to what I paid for them. That is the problem with stops. It does save losses from getting bigger when things continue to go against the trade. But it also doesn't always let the trade work the way you thought it would at times. I still like the gold share calls and will try them again in the April option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated. 2 losing trades this week although not a lot of money was involved. But it does drain your confidence. The VIX was lower and has reached its 50 day moving average. Getting short term oversold as well. This indicator is perhaps saying that the rally here won't be one that lasts. I'm not so sure. I'll let the rest of the week play itself out and take it from there. The market is still at the mercy of external factors. Europe and Asia had big gains overnight as money is moving back into stocks. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Once again a rally simply appears out of nowhere as the Dow gained 599 points on the now usual heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still in a channel and still in negative territory. Can we get more than one day with price gains? We'll find out tomorrow. We all know the Fed will raise interest rates and my thinking is that it's already been factored in. Perhaps we'll see some more buying with the positive expiration week bias. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have moved back to mid-range. So it's anybodies guess which way we go tomorrow. The NASDAQ led the way today and that's a plus. We're still in headline risk mode though. No SPY trades in mind right now for the short term. Gold got clobbered again as the futures dropped almost $45. What goes up in a straight line usually comes back the same way. The US dollar was steady and interest rates were slightly higher. The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX had a slight gain. Volume was average. Gold has a huge drop and the gold shares don't follow? That's a plus for the gold shares. My GDX March calls somehow have a slight gain with only 3 days left. The inflation data came in where expected and GDX opened with a big gap lower. But my stop loss order wasn't hit and the gold shares made it all the way back. Not sure what happens tomorrow but I will hold on to this trade until we get the Fed announcement and see what happens there. The short term indicators for GDX are now mid-range so it could go either way. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and it finally closed below 30. Still above the 50 day moving average and a long way from the 20 level. My next idea is to wait for the S&P to reach the down trend line at 4375 and try the April SPY puts. We'll see. I'd expect some volatility tomorrow with the Fed. Asia was mostly lower and Europe had slight losses. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments ahead of the Fed.

The Dow held up better than most today but it was an overall negative session for stocks. The industrials were flat on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower in a sideways channel. The NASDAQ led the way down again and was off 2%. The S&P 500 was lower and is not yet short term oversold. Inflation data out tomorrow and then the Fed on Wednesday. The trend remains lower until proven otherwise. Perhaps the positive option expiration bias will appear. However we are still in a headline driven volatility market, so anything goes. Gold got clobbered today as the futures fell around $30. The US dollar was steady but interest rates jumped. The XAU lost 7, while GDX fell 1 1/2. Volume was heavy to the downside. I did put in an overnight order for the GDX March calls and it was filled early. I did have a stop loss order in and the price went right through it. It eventually came back to get filled and the loss was just shy of 50%. That fits with the main goal of this year which is not to take big losses. If the position gets cut in half it obviously was the wrong idea or time. I did place another order for the GDX March calls at a closer to the money strike price later in the session. It too was eventually filled and I'm holding it ahead of tomorrows inflation report. That was the original plan to have some GDX calls ahead of that report. Although I'm not sure how long I'll hold this one. It has a slight profit. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today. The short term indicators are mid-range so we could go either way from here. The market is overdue for some kind of rally but we haven't been able to put anything together lately. Small stocks are on the verge of breaking the recent lows. The 50 day moving average is about to break the 200 day moving average to the downside for the S&P 500. Interesting times. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to begin the week. We'll see how the markets react to the inflation data tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index fell 229 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still stuck in a sideways range in negative territory. We started with a gap higher and then drifted down for the rest of the session with a sharper decline in the final hour. The NASDAQ led the way lower again and that's a negative. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are not yet oversold and have room to move lower. With the Fed on tap along with option expiration, next week should be interesting to say the least. There will be opportunities and I'll be looking for them this weekend. I'm not sure which way things will go. We're still at the mercy of headline risk. Gold fell a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates held steady. Gold did come off of the worst levels of the session. The XAU dropped almost 2 and GDX was off around 2/3. Volume was average. We're still short term overbought for the gold shares but not at extremes. I may try the GDX March calls again next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was bit higher today and that at least fits with the decline. The short term indicators here are mid-range indicating things could go one way or the other for the market. Plenty to ponder the next couple of days while checking the charts. The one thing that remains constant is the volatility. Option premiums are still sky high but next week the time premium will be getting taken out as we move towards Friday. Trading will have to remain nimble and quick as that is what the game calls for now. Hopefully we'll be up to the challenge. Europe was higher and Asia generally lower to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sellers were back today as the Dow fell 112 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still meandering in a sideways channel. We were off by 400 during the session so it could have been worse. Volume was lighter today so perhaps the selling will take a break tomorrow. The NASDAQ was the leader to the downside though and that's not a plus. The S&P 500 short term indicators are back to mid-range so we could go either way here. The inflation data was about in line with what was expected. I'm now looking at both the puts and calls for the SPY with just over a week to go in the March option cycle. We are still at the mercy of headline risk. Gold was up around a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU climbed 3, while GDX gained 3/4. Volume was back to average which is lighter than it's been. We got the expected bounce up for GDX from the inflation data early on and I sold the March calls there for about a 135% profit. This was a short term trade that worked out and I might try it again next week ahead of the producer price report. GDX does however remain both short and medium term overbought but that doesn't mean that it can't go higher. These are not normal market times. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Trying to guard against being overconfident just because we had a winning trade. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators here have turned back down. Still above the 30 level though and not close to the 50 day moving average yet. Not sure what to make of it since being lower for the VIX along with lower stock prices doesn't fit the usual pattern. I suppose we'll continue to wait and see if the S&P 500 can make it back to the down trend line that now comes in at 4400. Trying the SPY puts there makes sense for now. The 50 day moving average is about to cross below the 200 day moving average for the S&P. That is a long term sell signal. Most of the other major indicaes have already done this including the Dow. Asia was higher and Europe lower last night. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

A rally springs up out of nowhere as the Dow soared 653 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to trying to turn up again. It remains trading in a channel below the zero line in negative territory. Commodities fell today led by oil and that could be one of the excuses for the rise. Oversold conditions is another and now the short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus. We'll get inflation data tomorrow and we'll see how the market reacts to that. I do think that as time goes on we'll still see lower prices for stocks. The market is in a down trend until proven otherwise. Gold got clobbered today as what goes up in a straight line usually falls back like that too. The precious metal futures dropped almost $45. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were up. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was good. The gold shares came back from their worst levels early in the morning. Considering the huge drop in gold the gold shares continued to attract capital. I did place an overnight order for some GDX March calls in case of a drop and it got filled first thing in the morning. The gold shares are both short and medium term overbought. This is a trade in normal times that wouldn't make sense at all. But these are not normal times. I wanted to try the calls ahead of the inflation data due out and somehow the order was filled because the price I was willing to pay wasn't even near the closing price yesterday. But we got a big decline early and now we're in the trade. It is showing a small profit. Remember what I said about needing to be nimble and quick? Hopefully I can be and probably will be out of this trade tomorrow morning. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today but remains above the 30 level. More overbought than oversold here. Ideally we'd like to see this indicator fall back to the 50 day moving average as the S&P 500 makes its way back to the down trend line that began in January. That would give us a chance to try the SPY puts. But the market rarely cooperates with our best laid plans. We're still at the mercy of the Russian/Ukraine conflict for now. Asia was mixed while Europe had huge rallies. We'll keep an eye on what happens overnight and see how the markets react to the inflation data tomorrow.

It was a crazy back and forth session as the Dow fell 184 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trending lower but there is no conviction either way here. The Dow was up almost 600 at one stage of the game. The market remains hostage to the situation in the Ukraine. The S&P 500 is on its lower Bollinger band but the short term indicators are not completely oversold yet. The SPY option premiums remain extraodinarily high due to the extreme volatility. Right now it appears that all signs are pointing lower and taking out the 4100 on the S&P. But the market is in crazy mode and a 1000 point rally to the upside can not be counted out either if just to relieve the oversold condition. I'n on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold exploded to the upside as the futures climbed over sixty bucks. The US dollar was a bit lower but interest rates moved up. The gold shares finished well off of their highs, with the XAU gaining 1 3/8 and GDX up 1/4. Volume was extremely heavy as it can be looked at as an upside blow off on the daily charts. I do still like the gold shares here though and I'm thinking of getting some calls tomorrow ahead of Thursday inflation report. The problem is that the gold shares and gold are so overbought on both a short and medium term basis that you just don't know how long this rally can last. Plus when things go up in a straight line they always come back down the same way and fast. Today could have been the beginning of that for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today despite the drop in stocks which doesn't fit. Not sure what that means. We are in volatile times caused by a war that was not completely expected. The geo-political turmoil is off the charts with disruptions, sanctions etc. Hopefully we'll be able to take advantage of the opportunities with some of our long term capital commitments. As for the trading, you've got to be quick and nimble. Don't hold on to anything too long. We're in fast market conditions for now. Asia was lower and Europe mixed in last nights trade. It seems like we've had a weeks worth of trading and it's only Tuesday. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The selling continued today as the Dow fell 797 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. No end in sight for the Russian/Ukraine conflict seems to be the culprit. It looks like we're going to test the recent lows of 4100 on the S&P 500. The short term indicators there have turned down and are not yet oversold. Will things hold up? Hard to say with headline risk in the forefront. I will say that when a cease fire or peace agreement is reached we should see at least a one day huge rally. But we aren't there yet. Options premiums remain inflated for the SPY so we're still on the sidelines there. Gold continued to move straight up as the futures added another $35 to close at the $2000 level. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were mixed. The XAU gained 2 1/2, while GDX was up about a point. Volume remains heavy and GDX remains short term overbought. Starting to move straight up for GDX as well and that never ends well but we don't know how long it will continue. Commodity markets are setting new highs with no relief in sight. Prices for consumers continue to rise with no relief in the picture. Stock markets around the globe are selling off as the Russian/Ukraine situation will affect things in a negative way due to rising costs for goods. It is an interesting situation to say the least. Throw in the Fed cutting back on the easy money and you can see the problems the market will have going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher again today and is getting short term overbought but not there yet. Above 35 now and this indicator usually doesn't stay this high for long. However we are in an unstable situation now given what's going on in the world and the markets. Fear has taken over so we'll just have to see how far it goes. The only thing we can count on with any degree of certainty is that volatility will remain. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Lower again today but a burst of buying in the last ten minutes saved it from being worse. The Dow fell 180 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trying to grind higher without much success. Down from the start today as the combination of the Russian/Ukraine conflict with a stronger than expected jobs report induced selling. It could have been worse as we were off over 500 early on. The NASDAQ again led the way down and that's a negative. The short term indicators there and with the S&P 500 remain mid-range despite the selling. The bulls have to hope things stay that way or improve because if not we'll be back down to test the recent lows. With inflation data due out next week that will probably be high, I don't think that a rally is in the cards near term. I could be wrong. Any good news about the war will send stocks up in a hurry in my view. But for now down trend lines for the major averages remain in effect. Gold soared as the safe haven money is pouring in. The futures gained $35. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped as money seeks a safe place. The longer the conflict carries on, the higher these assets will go. The XAU climbed 4 7/8, while GDX added 1 1/3. Volume was heavy. GDX is breaking through the down trend line on the weekly chart with good volume. It is a valid breakout. Both short and medium term overbought here for GDX. It is also pretty far above both the 50 and 200 days moving averages. I should have chased it long ago but you cannot ignore the money flow into the gold shares. I'll try the calls on the next pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but finished off of its best levels. Volatilty is here to stay according to this indicator. Two weeks to go in the March option cycle. Premiums remain too high on the SPY for me to attempt anything there for now. We're still at the mercy of the headlines form Ukraine. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Europe and Asia finished the week with losses as money continues to flee risk assets. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Trying to make up its mind as the Dow fell 96 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to move higher. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. In normal times you could say today was just waiting on the jobs report tomorrow. But these are not normal times as we are in a headline risk mode because of the Russian invasion. The S&P 500 short term indicators are stuck at mid-range. The premiums on the SPY options are so high that it may not matter anyway. The volatility premium now built into the options is so high that it is cost prohibitive to attempt them. The NASDAQ was turned back at the down trend line on the daily chart. Can we bounce back tomorrow? We're at an important juncture there. Gold was up $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU gained 1 1/4, while GDX was up 1/4. Volume was average. GDX is sitting right at the down trend line on the weekly chart that goes back to 2020. It is overbought on both a short and medium term basis. In rallies, that doesn't matter. Money continues to pour into the gold shares. The option premiums here have jumped as well due to the unending interest in the precious metal. My thinking is that when there is a cease fire in the Ukraine gold will drop and then we'll take a look at the April calls there. But we cannot know for certain when that will occur. We do have inflation data due out next week and that could push GDX through the longer term down trend line and attract even more buyers. This is one move that should have been chased. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished pretty much flat today. Could go either way here as I'm not getting a good indication of what it is implying here. There's still plenty of time left in the March option cycle for a trade but those premiums are pricey. Perhaps tomorrow will give us a better idea of what's going on. Asia was mixed and Euope lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 596 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is turning back up. The war still goes on and the Fed is ready to raise interest rates. But the market moves on. The NASDAQ is now on the cusp of breaking through its down trend line and one more day like today will do it. The summation index is trying to make up its mind where to go and it appears that it will be to the upside. It has hung around in negative territory for too long. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still mid-range. That down trend line now comes in at 4450. I'm not sure if we'll try the SPY March puts there if the summation index continues higher. More Fedspeak tomorrow and the jobs report on Friday. Gold took a breather as the futures fell $15. The US dollar was a bit lower and fell back from the highs of the session. Interest rates went back up as the Fed is ready to fight inflation. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. Money contiues to pour into the gold stocks. They remain short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX retreated today but still remains above the 30 level. It appears that volatility is here to stay. For now. The small stocks are holding up better here. A break of their down trend lines could change the bearish picture. Hasn't happened yet but the possibility is there. The TRAN broke through its down trend line that began in the beginning of January today. Usually the TRAN and the NASDAQ are the leaders of the overall trend. We'll keep a close eye on the ongoing developments. But don't be surprised if prices keep moving up here. Europe was higher and Asia lower in last nights trading action. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Heading lower today as the Dow fell 597 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues sideways in a congestion zone and in negative territory. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ are rolling over. It's all about the headlines coming out of the Ukraine as the market is being held hostage at the moment. We've got the Fed chairman Powell speaking before Congress for the next two days but will it matter? Options premiums for the SPY are still elevated due to the volatility. The NADAQ is closer to breaking through its down trend line that began in the beginning of January. We'll keep an eye on that as that index has held up better lately. The S&P 500 indicators are still mid-range. My thinking is that peace will break out sooner rather than later and stocks will rally but I could be wrong. Gold soared on the haven effect and the gold futures were up almost fifty bucks. The US dollar was higher and interest rates continue to fall. Perhaps these markets know something that we don't. The XAU gained 6 1/2, while GDX soared 1 1/2. Volume was heavy. GDX is on the verge of breaking through a down trend line on a weekly basis that has been in effect since mid 2020. Money has been flocking to the gold shares in what seems to be a perfect storm there for the bulls. I still like the GDX calls but obviously I'm too late and too slow for this move. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX took off higher today and reached the 35 level before pulling back. Not sure what will happen next here. If the VIX continues higher we should see a rapid decline in stocks. If not perhaps we'll see that down trend line in the NASDAQ get breached to the upside and the bearish climate will change. It's a pretty fluid situation at the moment with the Ukraine wild card thrown into the mix. We've got the state of the Union speech tonight in the US but I don't think that will be a market mover either way. Asia was higher and Europe lower last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.