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Friday, March 18, 2022

The rally continues as the Dow added 274 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ is leading the way higher and that is a good thing for the bulls. We are right back to the resistance of 4470 at the 200 day moving average on the S&P 500. Short term overbought on some of the indicators for the S&P so I do believe that the rally will stall here. It was a very positive week for stocks but we'll have to see if we get any follow through going forward. The down trend lines have been broken to the upside on many of the major stock averages. But after moving straight up for 4 days some kind of pause is due. I'm still a believer in lower prices later this year before the selling is complete. I could be wrong. Gold lost $25 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates slipped. The XAU was off 1 1/8, while GDX slid 3/8. Volume was good. I'm still a fan of the gold shares and will look to try the calls again on GDX if it gets back to the up trend line at 35. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. I had expected some selling from yesterdays VIX reading but it did not occur. If the VIX can make it back to 20, I'll consider the SPY puts. However we are rolling into the April option cycle next week and the premiums are inflated. Perhaps some sideways to higher stock prices will make things more attractive. It was a good week for stocks but one must remember that in down trends rallies spring out of nowhere. If we continue higher next week I might have to change my view. But for now I would not be a longer term buyer yet. Asia and Europe were slightly higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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