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Thursday, March 24, 2022

The rally continues as the Dow gained 349 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Short term overbought and staying that way for the major stock indices. If we make it through 4550 on the S&P 500 I'll have to rethink my thesis of what's going on here. Hasn't happened yet but money is finding a home in stocks for the past couple of weeks. Still plenty of bears out there so perhaps we are going back to the old highs. Gold was up $25 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. A move higher in gold and the gold shares going nowhere is a negative. Not getting any kind of signal from the GDX short term technical indicators. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX continued lower and is still short term oversold. We are almost at the 20 level which is about where the 200 day moving average lies as well. A move to 20 on the VIX is where it makes technical sense to try the SPY April puts. If the VIX continues lower from there you would exit the trade for a loss because it will not work. If the VIX hits 20 and the S&P 500 also hits 4550 that is the ideal set up. Maybe we will get there tomorrow, who knows? That is what we will be looking for. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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