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Thursday, March 17, 2022

Higher we climb as the Dow gained 417 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive again. The summation index is now moving up. Sellers are gone for now as we are breaking down trend lines in the major averages that have been in effect since the beginning of January. The NASDAQ continues to be the leader and that is a plus. The next area of resistance that we're looking at are the upper Bollinger bands and the 200 day moving average for the S&P. These come in around the 4470 level. The short term indicators here are getting short term overbought but are not there yet. I'm not looking for new all time highs anytime soon. I'm guessing a sideways channel until we go lower later this year. But we'll see. Gold rallied with the futures up around $30. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 3 7/8, while GDX gained 2/3. Volume was average. I still like the gold shares going forward and am looking at the April and May calls for GDX. GDX has an up trend line at the 35 level. If we can somehow make it back to there with an oversold technical condition, that would be the time to try the calls. Mentally I'm doing OK despite getting stopped out on those GDX calls yesterday only to see them rally today. At least the idea was correct in theory but we're here to make money. The VIX closed below its 50 day moving average and is touching the lower Bollinger band. It is also short term oversold on some of the technical indicators. This seems to imply that volatility is about to pick up again and we should see some selling. Option expiration tomorrow and anything goes there. We did see some of the positive expiration week bias this time around. Asia was up and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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