Friday, March 04, 2022
Lower again today but a burst of buying in the last ten minutes saved it from being worse. The Dow fell 180 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trying to grind higher without much success. Down from the start today as the combination of the Russian/Ukraine conflict with a stronger than expected jobs report induced selling. It could have been worse as we were off over 500 early on. The NASDAQ again led the way down and that's a negative. The short term indicators there and with the S&P 500 remain mid-range despite the selling. The bulls have to hope things stay that way or improve because if not we'll be back down to test the recent lows. With inflation data due out next week that will probably be high, I don't think that a rally is in the cards near term. I could be wrong. Any good news about the war will send stocks up in a hurry in my view. But for now down trend lines for the major averages remain in effect. Gold soared as the safe haven money is pouring in. The futures gained $35. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped as money seeks a safe place. The longer the conflict carries on, the higher these assets will go. The XAU climbed 4 7/8, while GDX added 1 1/3. Volume was heavy. GDX is breaking through the down trend line on the weekly chart with good volume. It is a valid breakout. Both short and medium term overbought here for GDX. It is also pretty far above both the 50 and 200 days moving averages. I should have chased it long ago but you cannot ignore the money flow into the gold shares. I'll try the calls on the next pullback. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but finished off of its best levels. Volatilty is here to stay according to this indicator. Two weeks to go in the March option cycle. Premiums remain too high on the SPY for me to attempt anything there for now. We're still at the mercy of the headlines form Ukraine. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Europe and Asia finished the week with losses as money continues to flee risk assets. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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