Monday, March 21, 2022
A pause in the rally today as the Dow fell 202 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving higher. We are now short term overbought for the major averages so some type of stall or corrective price action should occur. The Dow was the worst performer today. The S&P 500 is still hugging its upper Bollinger band. How the week finishes will tell us a lot about where we are going. But is't only Monday. Not a lot of economic data due out this week. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was up along with interest rates. The XAU gained 3 1/3, while GDX was up almost a point. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are mid-range but it does look like it wants to turn up here. I'd still like to wait and see if GDX can get back to its up trend line before attempting the calls again. Not sure if that's the proper strategy but that's what I'm going with for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower and remains short term oversold. I'm looking for a decline at some point this week for stocks. I don't think that it will be the beginning of anything sustainable though. The huge move up in the McClellan oscillator last week has the look of an initiation move. That doesn't mean that we go on to new all time highs but it does take a big decline off the table for now. We'll just have to wait and see where things go from here. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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