Monday, March 07, 2022
The selling continued today as the Dow fell 797 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. No end in sight for the Russian/Ukraine conflict seems to be the culprit. It looks like we're going to test the recent lows of 4100 on the S&P 500. The short term indicators there have turned down and are not yet oversold. Will things hold up? Hard to say with headline risk in the forefront. I will say that when a cease fire or peace agreement is reached we should see at least a one day huge rally. But we aren't there yet. Options premiums remain inflated for the SPY so we're still on the sidelines there. Gold continued to move straight up as the futures added another $35 to close at the $2000 level. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were mixed. The XAU gained 2 1/2, while GDX was up about a point. Volume remains heavy and GDX remains short term overbought. Starting to move straight up for GDX as well and that never ends well but we don't know how long it will continue. Commodity markets are setting new highs with no relief in sight. Prices for consumers continue to rise with no relief in the picture. Stock markets around the globe are selling off as the Russian/Ukraine situation will affect things in a negative way due to rising costs for goods. It is an interesting situation to say the least. Throw in the Fed cutting back on the easy money and you can see the problems the market will have going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher again today and is getting short term overbought but not there yet. Above 35 now and this indicator usually doesn't stay this high for long. However we are in an unstable situation now given what's going on in the world and the markets. Fear has taken over so we'll just have to see how far it goes. The only thing we can count on with any degree of certainty is that volatility will remain. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
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