Tuesday, March 08, 2022
It was a crazy back and forth session as the Dow fell 184 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trending lower but there is no conviction either way here. The Dow was up almost 600 at one stage of the game. The market remains hostage to the situation in the Ukraine. The S&P 500 is on its lower Bollinger band but the short term indicators are not completely oversold yet. The SPY option premiums remain extraodinarily high due to the extreme volatility. Right now it appears that all signs are pointing lower and taking out the 4100 on the S&P. But the market is in crazy mode and a 1000 point rally to the upside can not be counted out either if just to relieve the oversold condition. I'n on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold exploded to the upside as the futures climbed over sixty bucks. The US dollar was a bit lower but interest rates moved up. The gold shares finished well off of their highs, with the XAU gaining 1 3/8 and GDX up 1/4. Volume was extremely heavy as it can be looked at as an upside blow off on the daily charts. I do still like the gold shares here though and I'm thinking of getting some calls tomorrow ahead of Thursday inflation report. The problem is that the gold shares and gold are so overbought on both a short and medium term basis that you just don't know how long this rally can last. Plus when things go up in a straight line they always come back down the same way and fast. Today could have been the beginning of that for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today despite the drop in stocks which doesn't fit. Not sure what that means. We are in volatile times caused by a war that was not completely expected. The geo-political turmoil is off the charts with disruptions, sanctions etc. Hopefully we'll be able to take advantage of the opportunities with some of our long term capital commitments. As for the trading, you've got to be quick and nimble. Don't hold on to anything too long. We're in fast market conditions for now. Asia was lower and Europe mixed in last nights trade. It seems like we've had a weeks worth of trading and it's only Tuesday. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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